Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its total gaming revenue forecast for Macau in 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - Total gaming revenue is expected to grow by 9% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, reaching 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - Mass gaming revenue is projected to increase by 7% and 6% in the next two years, recovering to 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 19% in 2025 but decline by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Group 2: Industry EBITDA - The industry EBITDA for the third quarter is expected to reach $2.108 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, recovering to 91% of the 2019 level [1] - Total gaming revenue remains resilient; however, increased market competition and rising reinvestment rates are expected to pressure EBITDA [1] Group 3: Company Outlook - CICC is optimistic about MGM China (02282) and Sands China (01928), forecasting adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter to be HKD 2.352 billion and USD 590 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% and 1% respectively [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, both rated as "outperform the industry" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, while the revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent positive trend in gaming revenue has reversed, but it is too early to make definitive statements due to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The firm slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year increase, while maintaining a positive outlook on Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] Group 2 - Expectations for Wynn Macau (01128) indicate that its third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a 5% year-on-year decrease in total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October, which is lower than expected, while the first 5 days of the month showed a 3% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Trends - The recent positive trend in gaming revenue is considered premature to declare as reversed, influenced by factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November, December, and February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts and Company Ratings - The gaming revenue forecast for this year has been slightly adjusted to an 8% year-on-year growth, with a positive outlook for Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) is expected to exceed third-quarter performance expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent recovery in Macau's gaming revenue is primarily driven by the strong performance of the Renminbi, with a notable correlation to the profitability of upstream enterprises as indicated by the narrowing gap between China's PPI and PPIRM [1] Group 1: Macau Gaming Revenue - Macau's gaming revenue has improved from a decline of 2% to a growth of 19% [1] - The forecast for August's gaming revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, reaching 21.8 billion MOP, which translates to an average daily revenue of approximately 703 million MOP [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The gap between China's PPI and PPIRM has narrowed from a negative 1.15 percentage points in December 2024 to a positive 1 percentage point by June 2025 [1] - Stabilization of property prices in China's first and second-tier cities is anticipated to boost consumer confidence and lead to upward revisions in corporate earnings forecasts [1]