今年第三季，该行预计行业EBITDA达21.08亿美元，同比增长9%，按季增长2%，恢复至2019年同期水 平的91%。期内总博彩收入维持韧性，但由于市场竞争加剧，再投资率上升，拖累EBITDA。 股份方面，该行较看好美高梅中国(02282)及金沙中国(01928)，料两间博企第三季经调整EBITDA分别为 23.52亿港元及5.90亿美元，同比升19%及1%;目标价分别为19.8港元及23.8港元，均予"跑赢行业"评级。 中金公司发布研报称，维持2025年澳门总博彩收入预测，同时上调2026年预测，预计今明两年总博彩收 入分别同比增长9%和5%，恢复至2019年的84%和88%。其中，该行预计今明两年的中场博彩收入同比 增长7%和6%，恢复至2019年的119%和126%;并预计贵宾博彩收入2025年同比增长19%，2026年同比下 降5%，恢复至2019年的29%和28%。 ...

中金公司（601995）发布研报称，维持2025年澳门总博彩收入预测，同时上调2026年预测，预计今明两 年总博彩收入分别同比增长9%和5%，恢复至2019年的84%和88%。其中，该行预计今明两年的中场博 彩收入同比增长7%和6%，恢复至2019年的119%和126%;并预计贵宾博彩收入2025年同比增长19%， 2026年同比下降5%，恢复至2019年的29%和28%。 股份方面，该行较看好美高梅中国(02282)及金沙中国(01928)，料两间博企第三季经调整EBITDA分别为 23.52亿港元及5.90亿美元，同比升19%及1%;目标价分别为19.8港元及23.8港元，均予"跑赢行业"评级。 今年第三季，该行预计行业EBITDA达21.08亿美元，同比增长9%，按季增长2%，恢复至2019年同期水 平的91%。期内总博彩收入维持韧性，但由于市场竞争加剧，再投资率上升，拖累EBITDA。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, while the revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent positive trend in gaming revenue has reversed, but it is too early to make definitive statements due to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The firm slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year increase, while maintaining a positive outlook on Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] Group 2 - Expectations for Wynn Macau (01128) indicate that its third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a 5% year-on-year decrease in total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October, which is lower than expected, while the first 5 days of the month showed a 3% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Trends - The recent positive trend in gaming revenue is considered premature to declare as reversed, influenced by factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November, December, and February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts and Company Ratings - The gaming revenue forecast for this year has been slightly adjusted to an 8% year-on-year growth, with a positive outlook for Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) is expected to exceed third-quarter performance expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

该行认为，若中国一、二线城市楼价可企稳，将有助提振消费者信心，带动新一轮企业盈利预测上调， 目前仍维持8月份博彩收入将同比增长10%至218亿澳门元的预测，相当于日均博彩收入达7.03亿澳门 元，与8月首十日的约7亿澳门元相符。 里昂发布研报称，澳门博彩收入近期回升，认为主要来自人民币走势强劲的推动，同时分析中国PPI与 PPIRM的差距，发现可反映上游企业盈利能力，而该差值已从2024年12月的负1.15个百分点，收窄至 2025年6月的正1个百分点，同期澳门博彩收入亦从下跌2%改善至增长19%。 ...