Core Insights - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to 3.484%, marking the lowest level since October 28, with a recent decline of nearly 5 basis points to 3.512% [1] Summary by Category - **Market Performance** - The two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.484%, indicating a significant decrease in short-term interest rates [1] - The yield's recent drop of nearly 5 basis points reflects changing market conditions and investor sentiment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment growth in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved without worry [104]. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail showing varying degrees of decline. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. In the short term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [105]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract rose 0.01%. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest decreased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased. The new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a decline in the future. The yield of Japan's newly issued 10 - year treasury bonds reached a new high since June 2008. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts in October was highly controversial. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since October 2021 [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spread**: The spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury yields narrowed, and the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year treasury yields widened [41]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts narrowed, and the spread between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [50]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts all narrowed [54][61]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures main contract increased slightly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight and 1 - week interest rates decreased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44%. The yields of treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.6bp and 0.9bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [71]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year China - US treasury yields both narrowed slightly [78]. - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 434 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.203854 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.263495 trillion yuan, with a net financing of - 59.641 billion yuan [87]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0875, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened [90]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond decreased, and the VIX index increased significantly [96]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [101]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In October, economic indicators such as social retail, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a slowdown. Social financing and credit decreased slightly year - on - year, and the support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken. The export growth rate turned negative. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed, which may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved [104]. - **Overseas**: The US government shutdown ended, and a large amount of economic data will be released. The non - farm payrolls in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts was controversial, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased significantly [104].

每经AI快讯，11月21日，10年期日本国债收益率下跌2个基点至1.795%。 ...

周四（11月20日）欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率涨2.8个基点，报3.489%，北京时间15:20（欧股开 盘之前）微幅"高开"，在持续、平滑的上行行情中于21:48刷新日高至3.507%，之后回吐部分涨幅；两 年期法债收益率涨0.6个基点，30年期法债收益率涨4.0个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率涨2.0个基点， 报3.473%。西班牙10年期国债收益率涨1.6个基点，报3.225%。希腊10年期国债收益率涨1.5个基点，报 3.343%。 ...

We are just seconds away from that delayed jobs number. We're watching the futures this morning. They're up sharply ahead of that because of what we heard from Nvidia last night.Dow futures up by about 250 points. S&P futures up by over 80. The Nasdaq now indicated up by about 5 or 425 points.Take a look at what's been happening in the Treasury market. We have seen higher yields. The 10ear sitting right at 415.The 2-year at 361 ahead of all of this. Rick Santelli is standing by at the CME in Chicago. And Ri ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗即将推出一项由额外预算资助的经济刺激方案，规模较前任首相 石破茂一年前公布的支出计划高出约27%，这凸显了她推行扩张性财政政策的决心。 根据文件，该刺激方案预计将结合减税与特别账户支出，使得一般账户支出达17.7万亿日元(约合1120 亿美元)。这一拟议的追加预算规模超过了石破茂去年提出的13.9万亿日元。知情人士表示，鉴于追加 预算规模更大，新增国债发行量也将超过去年。此外，文件显示，包括部分已列入预算的项目在内，该 刺激方案总价值达21.3万日元。 在对债务水平上升的担忧下，日本国债收益率走高。截至发稿，日本20年期国债收益率涨近5个基点， 报2.856%;30年期与40年期国债均涨超4个基点，分别报3.382%和3.749%。日本5年期和10年期国债收益 率在周四早些时候则升至2008年以来的最高水平。与此同时，日元进一步走软，美元兑日元汇率升至 157上方。 | ● 日本15年期国债 | 2.776 2.728 2.795 2.728 +0.048 | +1.76% | | --- | --- | --- | | ● 日本20年期国债 | 2.856 2.808 2 ...

每经AI快讯，11月20日，日本40年期国债收益率创下2007年以来的纪录高点。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月20日，日本10年期国债收益率上升4个基点，至1.805%。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间11月19日，欧债收益率多数上涨，英国10年期国债收益率涨4.9个基点报 4.600%，法国10年期国债收益率涨0.3个基点报3.459%，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.5个基点报2.710%， 意大利10年期国债收益率跌0.4个基点报3.451%，西班牙10年期国债收益率持平报3.207%。 每日经济新闻 ...

总台报道员当地时间11月19日获悉，日元兑美元汇率跌破1美元兑换156日元。 近期，日本首相高市早苗发表有关台湾问题和历史认知上的错误言论，引发多方质疑和担忧，给日本经 济也带来诸多负面影响。 日本东京股市两大股指19日继续承压下跌。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘下跌0.34%，东京证券交 易所股票价格指数下跌0.17%。 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。此外，在日本财务省 19日实施的20年期国债招标中，最高中标收益率达到2.833%，高于上一次的2.684%。这是自1999年7月 以来，时隔约26年的高水平。由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进 一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率持续上升。 来源：央视新闻客户端 作者: 柏春洋 ...