Juno markets发现债券市场的交易员们正在加大押注力度，他们认为美联储将在明年采取更为激进的降息措施。这一预期的升温，与市场对美联储领导层可 能发生变动的猜测密切相关 —— 投资者普遍认为，若总统特朗普成功推动美联储更换领导人，新的决策者可能会更顺从地执行其要求的宽松货币政策，从 而彻底改变当前的利率政策轨迹。 市场对降息幅度的定价已出现惊人转变：目前投资者预计明年将降息 76 个基点，这一数字较今年 4 月的 25 个基点大幅提升，意味着不到半年时间，市场对 降息力度的预期扩大了两倍以上。76 个基点的降息幅度，相当于三次标准幅度的降息（每次 25 个基点）加一次额外的 1 个基点调整，这种力度在美联储的 政策调整历史中，通常只出现在经济面临显著下行压力的时期，而当前美国经济尚未出现这种信号，足以反映出政治因素对市场预期的扭曲。 这一转变的核心驱动力，是交易员越来越确信鲍威尔的继任者将顺从总统的降息要求。尽管鲍威尔目前仍担任美联储主席，且美联储多次强调其决策的独立 性，但投资者似乎已经认定，特朗普将通过各种手段迫使央行屈服于其意志。这种预期并非空穴来风 —— 历史上，美国总统对美联储的公开施压虽未直 ...

债券交易员正在加大押注，认为美联储将在明年更激进地降息。随着市场猜测美联储最终可能更换领导 人，以实现总统特朗普要求的宽松货币政策，这种预期正在升温。 这种信念体现在2025年12月和2026年12月到期的SOFR期货收益率利差上，该指标反映了市场对美联储 在此期间降息幅度的预期。 尽管由于经济韧性强劲，过去几个月该利差缓慢扩大（交易员因此预计美联储会将降息推迟到明年）， 但在特朗普上周加强了对美联储主席鲍威尔的抨击后，这一趋势加速了。投资者目前定价明年将降息76 个基点，而就在今年4月，市场仅定价25个基点。 这一转变表明，交易员越来越确信鲍威尔的继任者将顺从总统的降息要求。虽然特朗普上周在引发市场 短暂震荡后，迅速收回了罢免美联储主席的威胁，但投资者似乎已经认定，他将成功迫使央行屈服于他 的意志。 "无论下一任是谁，这个人都会倾向于降息，"哥伦比亚Threadneedle全球利率策略师爱德华·阿尔-侯赛因 （Ed Al-Hussainy）表示。此外，"明年经济保持韧性的可能性较低"，这为更多政策宽松打开了大门。 鲍威尔因担心政府加征关税的通胀影响而推迟降息，一直受到特朗普及其盟友的抨击。本月，多名共和 党 ...

特朗普炮轰鲍威尔后 债券交易员加码对美联储2026年降息的押注 智通财经7月24日电，债券交易员正加大押注，认为美联储将在明年更激进地降息，因市场猜测美联储 最终换帅将带来美国总统唐纳德·特朗普所要求的更宽松货币政策。这种信心体现在2025年12月到期与 2026年12月到期的SOFR期货之间的收益率价差上，该价差反映了市场对美联储在该期间内降息幅度的 预期。 ...

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.32% on June 16, up from 4.28% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on June 16, consistent with the previous day [1] - Significant risk was added to the June 26 SOFR futures contract following record trading volumes on March 26 and June 26 [1] Group 2 - The largest increase in risk was observed in the 10-year Treasury futures due to price volatility on the same day [1]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - Bitcoin dropped 2.6% to $104,823, Ethereum fell 8% to $2,539, and Solana plummeted 9.3% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - Investors are rapidly exiting risk-linked positions, with centralized exchanges experiencing a net outflow of $1.8 billion in the past 24 hours [1] - The ETH/USDC trading pair on decentralized platforms like Uniswap saw slippage increase to a rare 1.5% [1] Group 2: Derivatives and Interest Rate Speculation - SOFR futures experienced a historic inversion, with the March/June contract spread dropping to -15 basis points, indicating a bet on potential rate cuts after Powell's departure [3] - The spread inversion has surpassed levels seen during the 2019 repo crisis, highlighting significant market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [3] Group 3: Political and Financial Implications of Cryptocurrency - Trump's financial disclosure revealed $320 million in revenue from the meme coin $TRUMP, with a 24-hour trading volume of $470 million on PancakeSwap [4] - Trump's holdings in the World Liberty Financial project, valued over $5 billion, raise questions about regulatory oversight as he becomes a major player in the crypto space [4] Group 4: Banking Sector's Response to Cryptocurrency - Major banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are planning to issue a "bank chain stablecoin" to compete with tech giants [5] - The initiative aims to capture 30% of the stablecoin market share, with potential risks to small banks losing 25% of deposits if tech companies enter the space [5] Group 5: Financial Market Dynamics - COMEX gold futures surpassed $2,450, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.0%, indicating a shift in institutional hedging strategies [6] - The volume of Bitcoin put options on Deribit surged by 40%, with contracts priced at $100,000 reaching historical premium levels [6] - The ongoing financial power struggle is reshaping the landscape, with central banks and cryptocurrencies vying for dominance [6]