格隆汇1月5日｜美债价格有望迎来一周内的首次上涨。由于美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统后油价下跌，缓解了 市场对通胀持续的担忧。美国10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至4.17%，而对货币政策更敏感的2年期收 益率下跌1个基点至3.46%。货币市场已完全消化了美联储今年两次降息25个基点的预期，并认为第三 次降息的可能性约为25%。周一，由于市场担心全球供应过剩导致原油期货价格下跌，全球多数债券随 之走高。委内瑞拉石油产量的任何复苏都将紧随其过去二十年产量的持续下滑，而随着欧佩克+等产油 国增加供应，今年市场正面临巨大的过剩。德意志银行策略师Henry Allen在给客户的报告中写道："地 缘政治冲击在历史上往往不会产生持久影响。这或许令人惊讶，但因为市场通常是根据增长和通胀等宏 观变量进行交易，而非地缘政治冲击本身。" ...

投资者静待年末经济数据出炉并为新年持仓做梳理，美国 10 年期国债收益率周三小幅下行。 截至美国东部时间凌晨 4：10，10 年期美债收益率下跌 1 个基点，报 4.112%；2 年期美债收益率同样 走低约 1 个基点，最新报 3.446%。 经济数据方面，美国截至 12 月 27 日当周的首次申领失业金人数数据，将于美国东部时间上午 8：30 发 布。 这是2025 年最后一项重磅经济数据，投资者将通过这份数据进一步寻找美联储未来货币政策利率路径 的线索。 美联储周二公布了 12 月 9-10 日货币政策会议纪要，此次会议最终投票决定再次降息，而纪要显示，本 次降息投票的分歧程度，比最终投票结果体现的更为激烈。 会议纪要发布后，美股维持小幅下跌走势，交易员小幅上调了对美联储明年 4 月再度降息的押注。 责任编辑：郭明煜 投资者静待年末经济数据出炉并为新年持仓做梳理，美国 10 年期国债收益率周三小幅下行。 截至美国东部时间凌晨 4：10，10 年期美债收益率下跌 1 个基点，报 4.112%；2 年期美债收益率同样 走低约 1 个基点，最新报 3.446%。 | SYMBOL | ← | COMPANY | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, highlighting his alignment with President Trump's economic views and the implications for monetary policy [2][3]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with strong support from Trump and his allies [2]. - Hassett has publicly stated that he would immediately lower interest rates if appointed, criticizing the Fed for allowing inflation to spiral out of control post-pandemic [2][3]. - Trump's decision on the nomination is expected to be announced before December 25, with speculation that Hassett's candidacy has been leaked intentionally [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The potential for a "dovish successor" to the Fed Chair has led to positive market reactions, with U.S. stock prices rising and a decrease in 10-year Treasury yields [6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized around 4.0018%, while the 2-year yield has dropped significantly, indicating a steepening yield curve [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, the nomination of the Fed Chair is a direct way for the President to influence the Federal Reserve, with Trump previously expressing regret over his appointment of Jerome Powell due to differing views on interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The next Fed Chair will serve a 14-year term starting February 1, with the current seat held by Stephen Miran, who is on unpaid leave [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, with August job growth falling short of expectations, leading to increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts starting this month [1] - In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs, while previous months' data were revised downwards [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped approximately 35 points, while spot gold prices surged nearly $30, reaching a record high of $3,586 per ounce [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10.74 basis points to 3.474%, and the 10-year yield decreased by 9.03 basis points to 4.070% after the non-farm payroll data was published [3] - U.S. stock futures saw a short-term increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.86% [5]

Core Points - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped to 4.18%, marking the lowest level since May 1 [1] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased to 3.66%, the lowest since April 7 [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen to 3.60%, also the lowest since May 1 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond has decreased by 12 basis points, reaching 3.83% [1]

Key Points - The current spot prices for platinum and palladium show slight increases, with platinum at 1291.240 (+0.08%) and palladium at 1195.170 (+0.54%) [2] - Gold prices have decreased slightly, with COMEX gold at 3338.200 (-0.12%), while silver prices also fell to 36.620 (-0.46%) [2] - In the foreign exchange market, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.142 (+0.04%), while the British pound has seen a minor decline at 1.320 (-0.01%) [4] - The US Treasury bond yields have shown a slight increase across various maturities, with the 2-year yield at 3.955 (+0.10%) and the 10-year yield at 4.378 (+0.41%) [7][8] - The cryptocurrency market reflects a decline in major currencies, with Bitcoin at 115189.390 (-0.50%) and Ethereum at 3685.890 (-0.34%) [5]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1296.240, down by 8.310 or 0.64% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1208.800, down by 3.450 or 0.28% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3356.300, up by 28.400 or 0.85% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.645, down by 0.530 or 1.43% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.141, up by 0.10% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.320, down by 0.31% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 150.446, up by 0.61% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.643, down by 0.01% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.814, down by 0.06% [3] Group 3: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond is at 3.930 [6] - The yield on the US 5-year Treasury bond is at 3.945, down by 0.020 or 0.50% [7] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is at 4.347, down by 0.030 or 0.69% [7] - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond is at 4.874, down by 0.040 or 0.81% [7] - The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond is at 4.575, down by 0.034 or 0.74% [7] - The yield on the German 10-year Treasury bond is at 2.686, down by 0.020 or 0.74% [7] - The yield on the French 10-year Treasury bond is at 3.344, down by 0.017 or 0.51% [7] - The yield on the Italian 10-year Treasury bond is at 3.528, down by 0.024 or 0.68% [7] - The yield on the Japanese 10-year Treasury bond is at 1.563, up by 0.009 or 0.58% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields have further declined, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Changes - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by 4.2 basis points, reaching 4.336% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.928% [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1297.550, down by 7.000 or 0.54% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1210.650, down by 1.600 or 0.13% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3348.300, up by 20.400 or 0.61% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.365, down by 0.810 or 2.18% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.144, up by 0.34% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.323, down by 0.06% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 149.943, up by 0.28% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.644, up by 0.10% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.813, down by 0.21% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 118505.020, up by 664.720 or 0.56% [4] - Litecoin is priced at 110.620, up by 0.120 or 0.11% [4] - Ethereum is priced at 3855.480, up by 45.480 or 1.19% [4] - Ripple is priced at 3.171, up by 0.075 or 2.41% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - US 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.943, up by 0.006 or 0.15% [6] - US 5-year Treasury yield is at 3.957, down by 0.008 or 0.20% [7] - US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.360, down by 0.017 or 0.39% [7] - US 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.888, down by 0.025 or 0.51% [7] - UK 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.607, down by 0.002 or 0.04% [7] - German 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.705, down by 0.001 or 0.04% [7] - French 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.364, up by 0.003 or 0.09% [7] - Italian 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.545, down by 0.007 or 0.20% [7] - Japanese 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.562, up by 0.008 or 0.51% [7]