2. 富国银行：下半年更看跌美元，避险备胎正在受益 富国银行宏观策略师Erik Nelson表示，"下半年我们更看跌美元。会出现更多疲软的美国硬数据、美联 储开始像市场预测的那样真的降息、美国资产部分抛售以及对美联储独立性的担忧，很可能重新回到人 们的视野中。"瑞银财富管理资深美国经济学家Brian Rose认为，"一切都取决于美联储的独立性。如果 担心美联储失去独立性，就会严重损害美元的避险地位。我们看到，在当前形势下，日元或瑞郎这些避 险货币的备胎正在受益。" 国外 1. 富国银行：美国4月份CPI上涨可能加速 关税正促使市场机构为更高的通胀做好准备。富国银行经济学家在下周美国CPI报告发布前写道，4月 份消费者价格上涨可能加速。他们预计，在3月份出人意料地下降0.1%之后，4月CPI月率将上涨0.2%。 经济学家说，这将使CPI年率降至2.3%的四年低点。他们预计核心CPI年率将维持在2.8%不变。他们表 示，随着关税已经成为现实，"我们认为，更高的进口成本会影响到消费者价格，这只是时间问题。" 3. 德商银行：美联储料保持观望，静待贸易政策影响显现 德商银行表示，今天市场焦点转向了美联储FOMC利率决 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share index increased by 1.15% during the week from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with the CSI 1000, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.85%, 1.74%, and 1.38% respectively, outperforming the overall A-share index [2][4]. - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the CSI 1000 outperforming the CSI 300, which only rose by 0.38%. The cyclical and growth styles also performed well, increasing by 2.44% and 1.41% respectively [2][4]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Activity - The A-share market saw a slight increase in trading activity, with an average daily turnover of 11,466 billion yuan, up by 379.79 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate was 1.3974%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [11][13]. - A total of 21 new funds were established during the week, with a total issuance of 22.292 billion units. Among these, 15 were equity funds, accounting for 84.45 billion units, which is an increase of 15.66 billion units from the previous week [18][40]. Group 3: Valuation Changes - As of April 25, 2025, the PE (TTM) ratio for the overall A-share index rose by 1.42% to 18.22 times, placing it at the 56.31% percentile since 2010, indicating a historical average level. The PB (LF) ratio increased by 0.55% to 1.53 times, which is at the 10.79% percentile, indicating a historical low [28][36]. - The A-share bond yield spread was recorded at 3.8265%, which is near the 86.09% percentile level since 2010, suggesting a relatively low risk premium compared to historical standards [36][38]. Group 4: Fund Management Trends - Public funds have increased their allocation to hard technology sectors in the first quarter of 2025, with significant increases in the allocation to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the North Exchange, while the allocation to the main board and ChiNext has decreased [39][42]. - The focus of active equity funds has shifted towards technology manufacturing sectors, particularly in automotive, electronics, and machinery equipment, while consumer sectors such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and retail have also gained attention [42][39]. Group 5: Policy Insights - The April Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of a "sustained, stable, and active capital market," which reflects a more proactive policy stance aimed at boosting investor confidence. The meeting called for the implementation of more proactive macro policies to support the A-share market [43][44]. - Key investment areas highlighted include dividend-paying sectors with strong performance and defensive attributes, technology sectors benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors that are expected to improve due to enhanced domestic demand strategies [44].