图 一周摘要 图 市场概况 ：上周A股市场整体呈现强劲上涨态势，主要宽基指数普遍收高，其中中证500、创业板50涨幅 居前，分别上涨4.03%和4.07%，显示中小盘成长风格表现活跃。上证指数全周上涨1.88%，沪深300上涨 1.95%，大盘蓝筹稳中有升。相比之下，价值风格的中证红利指数涨幅较小，仅微涨0.55%，凸显市场结 构性分化仍存，整体偏向成长与中小盘主导。 美国经济动能减弱，推动市场押注美联储将在2026年进一步降息，美元指数呈现震荡下行，全周累计下 跌约0.68%，收于98.03。 图表1：全球大类资产收益表现 单位：% 行业板块 ： 上 周万得一级行业多数上扬，材料（+5.85%）、信息技术（+4.36%）领涨，受益于政策支 持与产业景气度提升；日常消费（-0.65%）、通讯服务（-0.34%）小幅回调，大消费板块仍偏弱。市场 风格向高景气制造与科技板块倾斜。 基金发行 ： 上 周合计发行52只，其中股票型基金发行18只，混合型基金发行15只，债券型基金发行13 只，FOF型基金发行6只，总发行份额278.94亿份。 基金表现 ： 上 周万得全基指数上涨1.43%，其中普通股票型基金指数涨2. ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 19 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 创业板指低开低走跌超 2% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3876.37 | 0.16% | 6.09 | | | 深证成指 | 13053.97 | -1.29% | -170.54 | | | 沪深 300 | 4552.79 | -0.59% | -27.08 | | | 创业板 | 3107.06 | -2.17% | -68.84 | | | 科创 50 | 1305.97 | -1.46% | -19.37 | | | 北证 50 | 1431.71 | -0.51% | -7.31 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.97% ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | IOPV 溢折率 换手率 成交金额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 563360 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 1.228 | -0.49% | 1.2280 0.00% 18.54% 69.81亿 | | | 512050 | A500ETF基金 | 1.156 | -0.43% | 1.1556 0.03% 25.26% | 66.22亿 | | 159352 | A500ETF南方 | 1.208 | -0.58% | 1.2087 -0.06% 14.06% | 46.45 Z | | 159361 | A500ETF易方达 | 1.182 | -0.51% | 1.1838 -0.15% 15.31% | 37.36亿 | | 159338 | 中证A500ETF | 1.163 | -0.51% | 1.1638 -0.07% 14.88% | 37.32亿 | | 159351 | A500ETF嘉实 | 1.171 | -0.51% | 1.1731 -0.18% 10.16% | 10.2 ...

【12月15日连板股分析：连板股晋级率超五成 算力硬件股遭重挫】今日共59股涨停，连板股总数13 只，其中三连板及以上个股7只，上一交易日共13只连板股，连板股晋级率53.84%（不含ST股、退市 股）。个股方面，短线资金抱团少数几只高位股，平潭发展涨超9%再创阶段新高，航天机电缩量加速 走出12天7板，太阳电缆一字涨停录得10天6板。不过值得注意的是，龙洲股份尾盘封板未遂，再升科技 虽然晋级6连板但盘中多次炸板分歧巨大。板块方面，受上周五美股AI板块大跌影响，算力硬件股遭重 挫，跃岭股份、长飞光纤跌停，仕佳光子跌超10%，永鼎股份、长芯博创跌超8%；大消费板块强势反 弹，百大集团3连板，美凯龙5天3板，中锐股份2连板，皇氏集团、阳光乳业、皇台酒业等涨停，消息面 上，茅台新控量政策消息传开后，市场价格立即予以反应。12月13日茅台酒价大反攻，飞天茅台酒价格 跳涨4次。 转自：智通财经 ...

Market Overview - A total of 47 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 19 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 71% [1] - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both dropping over 1% at one point [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.69% [1] Stock Performance - The number of stocks with three or more consecutive limit ups increased to 11, with Jinfu Technology achieving a seven-day limit up streak [3][4] - Notable stocks with consecutive limit ups include Hai Xin Food and Hai Wang Bio with five consecutive limit ups, and Tongyu Communication, Daoming Optics, and Ruineng Technology with four consecutive limit ups [1][4] - The market saw a significant decline in the lithium battery sector, which had previously experienced a rebound [3] Sector Analysis - The Fujian, food, and pharmaceutical commercial sectors showed the highest gains, while energy metals, non-ferrous metals, and film and television sectors faced the largest declines [1] - The commercial aerospace concept stocks, including Tongyu Communication and Aerospace Development, continued to gain popularity, driven by recent developments in the aerospace sector [5][14] - The Fujian sector has seen a cumulative increase of 56% this year, significantly outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 [6] Investment Themes - The recent delivery of China's first rocket network recovery sea platform has reignited interest in commercial aerospace stocks [5] - The release of policies in Fujian aimed at benefiting Taiwan residents has further boosted local stocks, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [6] - The consumer sector is experiencing a revival, with multiple stocks in retail, food and beverage, and tourism showing strong performance due to event-driven factors [7][25] Notable Stocks - Jinfu Technology, with a seven-day limit up, is focused on mergers and acquisitions [10] - Hai Xin Food and Ruineng Technology are benefiting from their connections to the Fujian region and specific industry trends [12][19] - Stocks like Tongyu Communication and Aerospace Development are gaining traction due to their involvement in the commercial aerospace sector [14][5]

Group 1: Vanke Debt Situation - Vanke's debt situation is under scrutiny as a report suggests that the local government is considering a "market-oriented" approach to handle its debt [1][2] - A working group previously estimated a funding gap of approximately 150 billion RMB (about 21.1 billion USD) for Vanke, with total interest-bearing liabilities reported at around 362.9 billion RMB (51.1 billion USD) as of September 30 [3] - Vanke faces imminent challenges with two domestic bonds maturing in December, totaling 2 billion RMB and 3.7 billion RMB, respectively [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The market is reacting to rumors that Shenzhen has sought assistance from Beijing regarding Vanke's debt situation, leading to speculation about potential outcomes [4] - The report indicates that the Shenzhen government can no longer support Vanke independently, suggesting a need for intervention from higher authorities [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Stock Performance - The TMT sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the rolling 40-day excess return narrowing to a historical low of around -7.5%, indicating a potential bottoming out [10] - Recent reports highlight a strong performance in the optical communication sector, driven by rumors of Google placing a substantial order, which has positively impacted related stocks [14][22]

Group 1: Market Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference opened on November 12, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizing the stability and potential of the Chinese economy, and plans to deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing [2] - The CSRC aims to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, promoting reforms in the ChiNext board and accelerating the implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The CSRC will also focus on expanding long-term investments from social security, insurance, and pension funds, while enhancing the stability of the capital market to prevent extreme fluctuations [2] Group 2: Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement refuting false information circulating online, asserting that the industry is progressing steadily and will combat malicious attempts to undermine the sector [3] - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the integrated development of distributed renewable energy, encouraging the construction of integrated energy facilities in transportation hubs and advancing building-integrated photovoltaics [4] - The Ministry of Education and six other departments outlined plans to strengthen science and technology education in primary and secondary schools, aiming for a comprehensive educational ecosystem by 2035 [5] Group 3: Company Updates - JA Solar clarified recent rumors circulating about the company, stating that misleading information has harmed its reputation and that it reserves the right to pursue legal action against the spread of false claims [6] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) announced that its fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate battery has begun mass production [7] - Zhejiang Dongri clarified that it does not engage in "brain-computer interface" business, addressing market speculation [8] Group 4: Market Analysis - Debon Securities noted a divergence in index performance, suggesting a shift in market preference towards defensive and growth sectors, with a focus on insurance and banking stocks [11] - Guotou Securities highlighted that AI demand has disrupted traditional storage cycles, leading to a new "super cycle" in the industry, with significant price increases expected due to rising enterprise-level storage needs driven by AI [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive economic signals indicated by the recent CPI data, suggesting that domestic demand is being released and economic vitality is steadily increasing [2] - The October CPI data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with the core CPI rising 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [2] - The improvement in price data is comprehensive and solid, reflecting enhanced economic circulation and improved growth quality, driven by effective policies to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [2] Group 2 - The news mentions the launch of three major broad-based ETFs by Huabao Fund, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [2] - The A50 ETF tracks the CSI A50 Index, focusing on 50 leading companies, while the CSI A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders [2] - The trading data for the ETFs shows positive performance, with the A50 ETF and CSI A100 ETF both experiencing slight increases in value [1]

Group 1 - The main stock indices in the market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the ChiNext Index increasing by more than 3%, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11,633 billion yuan, reflecting active trading activity [1] - Various sectors showed mixed performance, with coal stocks declining while engineering machinery, real estate, insurance, oil, semiconductors, and brokerage sectors saw significant gains [1] Group 2 - Short-term adjustments in the market provide investment opportunities, with the logic of residents moving deposits remaining unchanged, potentially leading to long-term capital inflows into the A-share market [2] - The strategic layout of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive technological industries towards significant breakthroughs, while anti-involution policies are anticipated to improve corporate profitability [2] - Key sectors for investment include defensive dividend sectors such as banking, transportation, and food and beverage in the short term, while mid-term focus should be on new productivity themes, anti-involution, and large consumption sectors [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index decreased by 1.14% as of October 13, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - The top-performing stock was Uni-President China, which rose by 1.32%, while Xinyi Glass led the decline with a drop of 5.38% [3] - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) fell by 1.02%, with a latest price of 1.07 CNY, but saw a cumulative increase of 0.84% over the past two weeks [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai real estate market showed a clear divergence between new and second-hand homes during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival period, with new home transactions rising by 78.9% year-on-year to 909 units, while second-hand home transactions fell by 63.7% to 780 units [3] - Recent policies in the consumer sector have created a favorable environment, particularly for traditional consumption and maternity-related sectors, with significant support from local government initiatives [4] - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has reached a scale of 5.355 billion CNY and a record high of 4.989 billion shares [4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index account for 28.98% of the index, with notable companies including Orient Overseas International and China Shenhua Energy [5]