Workflow
油价预测
icon
Search documents
花旗:第四季油价或走低 调整未来三个月内布伦特油价预测至65美元
智通财经网· 2025-10-03 07:56
该行预计,第四季油价可能走低,将未来0至3个月的价格预测布伦特油价调整为60美元,料WTI原油价 格为57美元。同时,该行关注本年迄今为止美国生物燃料政策的变化,当中仍存在不确定因素,这或将 影响到RIN、精炼产品、生物燃料和大豆油价格。 智通财经APP获悉,花旗发布研报称,布伦特油价已跌至每桶65美元,达到该行0至3个月的目标价格。 随着踏入第四季度,由于中东夏季的原油需求季节性减少,而石油供应过剩问题或在主要枢纽中更为明 显,该行预计OPEC+的出口将会上升。 ...
高盛:我们对2025-2026年价格预估的风险是双向的 但略微偏向上行-美股-金融界
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-09-08 03:37
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for oil supply surplus in 2026, citing that the increase in supply from the Americas will outweigh the reduction in supply from Russia and the rise in global demand [1] - The investment bank maintains its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil for 2025, while predicting an average price of $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 per barrel for WTI in 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs states that the risks to its oil price forecast for 2025-2026 are two-sided but slightly skewed to the upside [1]
EIA原油周度数据报告-20250814
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:06
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report from Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd. dated August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - OPEC raised the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day and slightly increased the 2025 global economic growth rate to 3.0% due to global economic resilience [1] - EIA is more cautious about demand and prices, predicting lower global daily demand in 2025 and 2026 than OPEC and lowering Brent oil price forecasts [1] - IEA expects a record - high oil supply surplus next year, and with OPEC + gradually increasing production, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory as of August 8, 2025, was 426,698 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,036 thousand barrels (0.72%) from August 1 [2] - Cushing crude oil inventory was 23,051 thousand barrels, an increase of 45 thousand barrels (0.20%) [2] - US gasoline inventory was 226,290 thousand barrels, a decrease of 792 thousand barrels (- 0.35%) [2] - US distillate oil inventory was 113,685 thousand barrels, an increase of 714 thousand barrels (0.63%) [2] - US total oil product inventory was 1,267,347 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,522 thousand barrels (0.60%) [2] - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 403,202 thousand barrels, an increase of 226 thousand barrels (0.06%) [2] Production and Trade Data - US refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points (- 0.52%) [2] - US crude oil production was 13,327 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 43 thousand barrels per day (0.32%) [2] - US crude oil imports were 6,920 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 958 thousand barrels per day (16.07%) [2] - US crude oil exports were 3,577 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 259 thousand barrels per day (7.81%) [2]
瑞银下调油价预测:布伦特2025年底或跌至62美元/桶,供应增加成主因
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 13:07
Core Viewpoint - UBS has revised its international oil price forecast downward, expecting Brent crude prices to remain near the upper limit of $60 to $70 per barrel, with a potential drop to the lower limit later this year [1] Price Forecast Summary - UBS predicts Brent crude oil prices will decline to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026, down from a previous forecast of $68 per barrel, a reduction of $6 [1] - By mid-2026, prices are expected to recover to $65 per barrel, maintaining this level in the second half of the year [1] - The spread between WTI and Brent crude is expected to narrow from $4 per barrel to $3 per barrel [1] Factors Influencing Price Adjustments - The increase in oil supply from South America (e.g., Brazil, Guyana) is a key factor in the price adjustment [1] - Production from countries under international sanctions, such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, has exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about significant declines [1] - Recent growth in oil demand from India has not met institutional expectations, impacting price assessments [1] OPEC+ Production Policy - UBS suggests that unless there are prolonged unexpected supply disruptions globally, OPEC+ may pause further adjustments to its production policy [1] - The firm holds a relatively optimistic view on oil prices for mid-2026 and the second half of the year, anticipating improvements in market supply-demand dynamics [1] Current Market Conditions - As of the latest report, WTI crude futures rose by 0.44% to $64.16 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 0.42% to $66.87 per barrel [2] - Despite the slight daily recovery, oil prices faced the largest weekly decline since June due to OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day and concerns over global economic growth stemming from U.S. tariff policies [2]
突发!全线大跌!
中国基金报· 2025-08-04 13:59
Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have experienced a significant decline, with Brent crude futures dropping by 2% to $68.28 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling by 2.33% to $65.76 per barrel [2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a strategic shift towards regaining market share [6]. - This decision indicates an early completion of the current phase of supply recovery, moving away from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement initiated in 2023 [6]. - The increase in production is expected to mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices, leading to expectations of a global supply surplus in the second half of the year [6]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs has maintained its oil price forecast, projecting an average price of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026 [6]. - The firm acknowledges increased risks to its baseline forecast due to potential supply disruptions from Russia and Iran, alongside declining oil demand risks stemming from U.S. tariffs and economic weakness [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ will likely keep its production quotas unchanged after September, as OECD commercial inventories are expected to rise and seasonal demand is projected to decline [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The oil market is currently characterized by a contradiction between rising supply expectations and stagnant demand growth, with geopolitical risks acting as key disruptors [7]. - Potential military escalations from the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict could heighten concerns over oil supply disruptions, leading to upward pressure on prices [7]. - However, if these geopolitical risks do not materialize, there may be short-term downward pressure on oil prices [7].
高盛维持布伦特原油预测
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-04 05:41
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its oil price forecast, predicting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, but noted increasing risks to its baseline estimates due to recent developments [1] - The bank highlighted downward risks to its forecast of 800,000 barrels per day demand growth for 2025-2026, citing rising U.S. tariff rates, additional secondary tariff threats, and weak U.S. economic activity data [3] - Goldman Sachs' economists indicated that the weak data suggests the U.S. economy is currently growing below potential, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the latest move in a series of accelerated production increases to regain market share [3] - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will maintain its production quotas unchanged after September, anticipating a faster pace of OECD commercial inventory builds and a decline in seasonal demand support [3]
油气行业2025年7月月报:7月油价小幅上涨,国内启动石化行业老旧产能摸排评估-20250801
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-01 07:36
Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4][6] Core Views - In July 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $69.4 per barrel, a slight decrease of $0.4 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $67.1 per barrel, down $0.6 [1][13] - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, with plans to complete the remaining increase by September 2025 [2][17] - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 700,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with similar growth projected for 2026 [3][18] - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][19] Summary by Sections July Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures closed at $73.2 per barrel at the end of July, while WTI closed at $70.0 per barrel [1][13] - The oil price experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [1][13] Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts and announced an increase in production rates [2][17] - The demand for oil is expected to rise significantly, with major energy agencies forecasting increases in daily consumption [3][18] Key Data Tracking - As of July 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $70.00 per barrel, reflecting a 7.5% increase from the previous month [40] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.337 million barrels per day in July, showing a slight decrease [46] - The average operating rate of U.S. refineries was 94.9% in July, indicating strong demand for refined products [56]
高盛:石油和炼油行业下半年展望及其对股票的影响
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-25 00:52
Investment Rating - The report upgrades the Brent crude oil price forecast for the remainder of 2025 to $66 per barrel, with expectations of further price increases due to rising price premiums and shifting market risk concerns towards supply disruptions [1][2]. Core Insights - The cautious outlook for oil prices in 2026 is based on anticipated oversupply of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day due to the ramp-up of non-OPEC projects and the development of U.S. shale oil [1][2]. - The refining industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven by supply factors, with a projected net increase in global refining capacity of only 0.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - The Brent crude oil price is expected to rise to $66 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, supported by low global inventory levels, particularly in OECD countries, and concerns over supply disruptions [2][3]. - A cautious forecast for 2026 predicts a decline to around $50 per barrel due to oversupply from non-OPEC projects [1][2]. Refining Industry Dynamics - The refining sector is experiencing high profit margins, particularly in diesel, driven by low inventory levels and the permanent closure of several refineries [7][8]. - The global refining system is under pressure due to a tight supply-demand balance, with significant growth expected in the demand for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel [8]. Geopolitical and Supply Risks - Current market risks include supply disruptions and geopolitical instability, with a recommendation for conservative yet flexible trading strategies, such as purchasing call options and utilizing spot and forward contracts for hedging [5][6]. - The impact of Iranian oil production on market prices is significant, with potential price spikes if production increases dramatically [6]. OPEC and Non-OPEC Supply - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding OPEC's spare capacity, which supports forward oil prices, and the potential for oversupply if new projects come online as planned [3][4]. - The refining industry is expected to benefit from the complexities of companies like Reliance Industries, which can leverage OPEC supply increases while also growing in other sectors [8].
7月23日电,阿塞拜疆中央银行预测,2025年平均油价为每桶68.6美元,天然气价格为每1000立方米299美元。
news flash· 2025-07-23 07:41
Group 1 - The Central Bank of Azerbaijan predicts an average oil price of $68.6 per barrel for 2025 [1] - The forecast for natural gas prices is set at $299 per 1000 cubic meters for 2025 [1]
黄金大消息!全球央行又出手
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-07-05 00:26
Group 1: Global Gold Market - In May, global central banks net purchased 20 tons of gold, which is close to but still below the 12-month average of 27 tons [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance the strategic appeal of gold for central banks, as countries seek to bolster their gold reserves to mitigate geopolitical shocks [6] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect their official gold reserves to continue growing, up from 81% last year, with a record 43% of central bank officials planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 2: Oil Market - On July 4, international oil prices fell across the board, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 0.75% to $66.5 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 0.42% to $68.51 per barrel [2] - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 270,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching 27.02 million barrels per day, raising concerns about oversupply in the market [2] - Barclays raised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast to $72 per barrel, indicating an improved demand outlook [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - On July 4, international precious metal futures saw slight gains, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.11% to $3346.5 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 1.79% [4] - COMEX silver futures also rose by 0.14% to $37.135 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.1% [5] - Factors driving the rise in gold prices include a decline in the US dollar index, concerns over the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical risk premiums, technical corrections, and capital flows [5]