Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) activated the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" under the linked exchange rate system, selling USD and buying HKD worth 94.2 billion HKD, as the HKD weakened to 7.85 HKD per USD during the New York trading session on June 26 [1] Group 1 - The last occurrence of the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" was in May 2023, while the "strong-side convertibility guarantee" was triggered on May 3, 2023, when the HKD reached 7.75 HKD per USD [1] - HKMA's President, Eddie Yue, noted that the HKD had previously seen a capital inflow of 129.4 billion HKD due to the "strong-side convertibility guarantee" in May, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - Factors contributing to the HKD's weakening include reduced demand for HKD due to the end of the dividend payout season, non-local companies converting HKD from IPOs or bond issuances back to their currencies, and the completion of half-year funding needs [1] Group 2 - The HKMA emphasizes the importance of maintaining HKD exchange rate stability as part of its monetary policy objectives, given Hong Kong's open economy and lack of foreign exchange controls [2] - The HKMA provides convertibility guarantees, committing to sell HKD at the "strong-side" level of 7.75 HKD per USD and buy HKD at the "weak-side" level of 7.85 HKD per USD upon banks' requests [2] - Eddie Yue advised caution in managing interest rate and market risks, indicating that the HKD may trigger the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" again in the future as bank reserves decrease and HKD interbank rates may rise [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar has fallen to the weak end of its trading band against the US dollar for the first time since 2023, with the exchange rate reaching 7.85 [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong dollar to US dollar exchange rate has hit the weak end of the trading band, indicating potential pressure on the currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar has reached the weak end of its trading band against the US dollar, hitting 7.85 for the first time in over two years [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate has touched the weak side convertibility guarantee level of 7.85 against the US dollar [1] - This marks the first occurrence of the Hong Kong dollar reaching this level in more than two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has recently experienced significant fluctuations against the US dollar, triggering both the "strong-side convertibility guarantee" and the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" due to changes in liquidity and interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange and Monetary Policy - On April 30, the HKD/USD exchange rate hit 7.75, activating the "strong-side convertibility guarantee" [2]. - From May 3 to 6, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injected a total of 129.4 billion HKD into the market, leading to an expansion of HKD liquidity [2]. - The injection of HKD significantly lowered the HIBOR rates, with the 1-month HIBOR dropping from 3.65% in April to 0.67%, and overnight rates approaching 0% [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The widening of the HKD-USD interest rate differential (HIBOR-SOFR) has prompted carry trades, resulting in a depreciation of the HKD, which is now approaching the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" at 7.85 [2]. - The HKMA is expected to tighten liquidity in the short term, which may alleviate the depreciation pressure on the HKD as HIBOR rates rise again [2]. - Historically, the HKD has touched the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" four times since 2017, leading to pressure on the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index during those periods [2].

6月19日，港股市场亦是全线杀跌。截至19日收盘，香港恒生指数下挫1.99%，报23237.74点；恒生科技指数下 跌2.42%，报5088.32点；恒生国企指数下跌2.13%%，报8410.94点。那么，港股市场是否又已经见顶？ 香港金管局释放重磅信号 香港市场可能正在迎来变数！ 香港金管局最新表态称，港美息差扩阔引发套息交易，令港元在过去数周逐步走近"弱方兑换保证"的7.85水 平。若套息交易持续，可能会令港元汇率进一步走弱，甚至可能触发"弱方兑换保证"，届时金管局将按照联汇 制度买入港元沽出美元，银行体系总结余将相应下降，而港元拆息将会逐步回升。 那么，这对市场的影响表现在哪里？可能在于流动性。花旗发表研究报告指出，若港元兑美元触及7.85弱方兑 换保证且外汇需求仍存在，香港金管局将沽售美元以维持联系汇率，并减少港元流动性，估计将会有约700亿 至1000亿港元流动性会被抽走。 北京时间19日凌晨，美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间于4.25%至4.5%。香港金管局表示，美联储这次的决定 符合市场预期，点阵图显示联储局有可能于今年内减息共50个基点。不过，市场普遍认为美联储来的减息步伐 仍然存在较大的不确定 ...