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港元五连升!汇率触及三月高位,南向资金单日涌入358亿
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 23:48
近两次的反转行情都呈现出"急涨急跌"的态势。为稳定港元汇率,香港金管局于8月13日和14日分别回笼港币70.65亿元和33.76亿元。致使香港银行体系总结 余从6月的近1750亿港元的高位回落。跌至537亿港元,接近回落到5月初香港金管局未干预前的446亿港元的水平。伴随港元汇率的大幅拉升,港元资金供应 收紧。多期限HIBOR大幅上涨。隔夜港元拆借利率已从先前的不足0.2%大幅上升至近3%。港元各期限HIBOR连续第三天大涨。 流动性收紧引发质变 下半年以来,港元汇率屡屡触及弱方兑换保证。香港金管局频频出手稳定港元汇率。港元近期的急速拉升,与套息交易多头反转密不可分。当港元结余下降 到一定程度之后,流动性不再像之前那么充裕。港元资金成本脱离零利率,港元与美元利差收窄。借港元、换美元的套息交易平仓导致港元汇率升值。以银 行总结余为代表的港元流动性和港元资金利率呈现非线性关系。 从历史数据来看,当总结余下降至500亿港元附近时,HIBOR才会出现明显变化。随着总结余回落至目前的水平,流动性的边际扰动成为影响港元资金利率 的主导因素。直到近期香港金管局的干预行为,才开始带动港元资金利率大幅收紧。南向资金带来了旺盛的 ...
时隔两月再现反转 港元缘何突然“扶摇直上”
Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) interventions, narrowing interest rate differentials, and significant inflows of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The Hong Kong dollar has appreciated for five consecutive trading days, reaching a high of 7.7926 against the US dollar, with a daily increase of 0.35% [1]. - The exchange rate has broken through multiple levels, moving from a stable 7.85 to 7.80, indicating a significant upward trend [1][2]. Group 2: HKMA Interventions - The HKMA has intervened to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar by withdrawing liquidity, with significant amounts of HKD 70.65 billion and HKD 33.76 billion being absorbed on August 13 and 14, respectively [2]. - The total balance of the Hong Kong banking system has decreased from nearly HKD 175 billion in June to approximately HKD 53.7 billion, nearing the pre-intervention level of HKD 44.6 billion [2][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has surged, with overnight rates rising from below 0.2% to nearly 3% due to tightening liquidity conditions [2][4]. - The relationship between liquidity and interest rates is non-linear, with significant changes in HIBOR occurring when the total balance approaches HKD 500 million [4]. Group 4: Capital Inflows - There has been a notable influx of southbound capital, with a record net inflow of approximately HKD 35.877 billion on August 15, driving demand for the Hong Kong dollar [4]. - The demand for the Hong Kong dollar is further supported by the expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to influence the interest rate differential between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong dollar will depend on the balance between interest rate differentials and the activity of carry trades [5]. - While the Hong Kong dollar may appreciate moderately, it is unlikely to return to the strong side of the peg at 7.75 in the short term due to the current low interest rate environment and limited likelihood of significant Fed rate cuts [6].
HIBOR上升会分化AH股走势吗?
2025-08-18 15:10
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Hong Kong financial market, specifically focusing on the HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) and its implications for the stock market, including A-shares and H-shares. Core Points and Arguments - **HIBOR Increase and Market Dynamics**: The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to a shift from excessive liquidity to a more normalized level, following government interventions in May and June that significantly impacted market liquidity [1][8]. - **Impact on A-shares and H-shares**: A-shares are expected to maintain an upward trajectory, while H-shares may experience short-term setbacks but are anticipated to rebound [2][13]. - **Market Divergence**: The U.S. market has shown signs of slowing down post-inflation data release, while A-shares continue to rise. In contrast, the Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Index, has faced declines due to tightening liquidity [3][11]. - **Long-term Effects of HIBOR Increase**: While rising HIBOR typically indicates tighter liquidity, it may not have the traditionally expected suppressive effects on the market due to the current economic context [4][6]. - **Currency and Interest Rate Mechanism**: The relationship between the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the U.S. dollar and the resulting interest rate differentials creates opportunities for arbitrage, influencing market liquidity and HIBOR levels [5][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Liquidity Recovery**: The recent increase in HIBOR is seen as a normalization process after an abnormal state of excessive liquidity earlier in the year, which was driven by external economic factors [6][7]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The market is expected to face continued liquidity tightening in the short term, but strategic optimism remains for both Hong Kong and A-shares, particularly with upcoming policy implementations and AI-related trading opportunities [11][14]. - **Global Financial Risks**: The global financial landscape is characterized by heightened risks, with potential impacts on asset allocation and market behavior, particularly concerning the U.S. dollar and its effects on A-shares [12][15]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the Hong Kong financial market and its interconnections with global economic trends.
港元连破四关口,金管局两日买入104亿,汇率强劲升至7.818
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 08:35
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar has shown a significant rebound against the US dollar, rising from a continuous level of 7.85 to surpass the 7.82 mark, indicating a strong recovery trend in the exchange rate [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - As of August 15, the Hong Kong dollar to US dollar exchange rate was reported at 7.81823, with a daily low of 7.81330, reflecting a robust upward movement [1] - The recent rise in the exchange rate has seen it break through four key levels, demonstrating a strong rebound [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Interventions - The HKMA has intervened in the market by buying Hong Kong dollars to maintain exchange rate stability, purchasing 33.76 billion HKD on August 14 and 70.65 billion HKD on August 13 [3] - Following these interventions, the total balance in the Hong Kong banking system fell to 53.716 billion HKD [3] Group 3: Currency Peg Mechanism - The currency peg system in Hong Kong, implemented since 1983, allows for normal fluctuations of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar, with specific actions taken when the exchange rate hits certain thresholds [4] - The HKMA has intervened multiple times this year, buying over 110 billion HKD since the end of June, reflecting its commitment to maintaining the currency peg [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - The tightening of market liquidity due to HKMA interventions has led some investors to close their short positions on the Hong Kong dollar, resulting in a decline in the USD/HKD spot price [5] - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, stock market conditions, and global financial market trends will continue to influence the exchange rate dynamics [5]
港元汇率走弱 香港金管局6月以来已买入超千亿港元 专家预计港元短期内仍将延续弱势
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-06 16:29
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is actively intervening in the foreign exchange market to defend the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) against depreciation, as it has reached the weak end of its peg against the US dollar. Group 1: HKMA Interventions - On August 6, the HKMA bought HKD 84.39 billion and sold USD to maintain the HKD's value, marking the fourth intervention in seven days [1] - Cumulatively, the HKMA has withdrawn HKD 223.26 billion from the market since July 31 to keep the HKD within the range of 7.75 to 7.85 against the USD [1] Group 2: Currency Peg Mechanism - The HKD operates under a linked exchange rate system since 1983, with a normal fluctuation range between 7.75 (strong-side convertibility) and 7.85 (weak-side convertibility) [1] - If the HKD hits the strong-side, the HKMA buys USD and sells HKD; conversely, if it hits the weak-side, the HKMA sells USD and buys HKD to stabilize the currency [1] Group 3: Market Conditions and Influences - The HKD has faced downward pressure due to a persistent interest rate differential between HKD and USD, leading to increased carry trade activities [2] - Since June, the HKMA has bought HKD 1,095.29 billion in response to the weakening of the HKD, which was initially strong in May [2] - The HKMA noted that reduced demand for HKD has led to carry trades, triggering multiple instances of the weak-side convertibility [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - An independent analyst predicts that the HKD's weakness may continue until the HKD interbank rates rise above 2%, indicating that the current "currency defense battle" may persist [3]
港元汇率走弱,香港金管局6月以来已买入超千亿港元,专家预计港元短期内仍将延续弱势
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-06 16:20
Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the foreign exchange market on August 6, buying HKD 8.439 billion to defend the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar as it approached the weak end of the trading band at 7.85 [1] - Since the beginning of June, the HKMA has intervened 10 times, buying a total of HKD 109.529 billion to stabilize the currency after it shifted from a strong to a weak position [2] - The HKMA's actions are part of a long-standing currency peg system established in 1983, which allows the Hong Kong dollar to fluctuate between 7.75 and 7.85 against the US dollar [1][2] Group 2 - The recent weakness of the Hong Kong dollar is attributed to two main pressures: low interbank rates encouraging carry trades and a rising US dollar index since early July [2] - The HKMA noted that while liquidity has decreased, leading to a mild rise in interbank rates, they remain significantly lower than US rates, which continues to exert pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [2] - Analyst Lu Churen predicts that the weakness of the Hong Kong dollar may persist until the interbank rates rise above 2%, indicating that the current "currency defense battle" may continue until then [3]
南向流出与套利夹击,香港金管局一周三次出手稳汇市
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-05 06:48
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market by purchasing HKD 64.29 billion (approximately USD 8.19 billion) to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar, following previous interventions in late July and early August [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - The HKMA's recent market intervention is part of a series of actions since June aimed at curbing the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, which has been pressured by significant interest rate differentials between Hong Kong and the US [4][5]. - In total, the HKMA has withdrawn HKD 138.9 billion from the market through currency purchases over the past week to keep the exchange rate within the 7.75-7.85 range [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital outflows reached approximately HKD 181 billion on Monday, marking the largest single-day net outflow since May 12, which has intensified downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [1][4]. - Seasonal demand reduction and the outflow of southbound funds are contributing to the prevailing selling pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, as noted by DBS Bank's strategist Carie Li [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent US employment data has led to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could alleviate some pressure on the HKMA if the interest rate differential narrows [5]. - The ongoing arbitrage trading driven by the interest rate gap is expected to remain active, with further interventions from the HKMA likely in the future [4][5].
港汇触发7.85弱方兑换保证 香港金管局买入39.25亿港元
智通财经网· 2025-07-31 01:01
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has activated the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" at 7.85, indicating a significant shift in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate dynamics due to various market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The HKMA bought 39.25 billion HKD on July 31, reducing the banking system's balance to 82.55 billion HKD on August 1 [1]. - The last activation of the 7.85 weak-side guarantee occurred on July 16, involving 14.83 billion HKD [1]. - Since June, the HKMA has intervened in the market seven times, absorbing a total of 911.08 billion HKD, which is 70% of the hot money inflow in May [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate and Market Conditions - The HKMA's president, Yu Weiwen, indicated that multiple factors have contributed to the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar, including ample liquidity in the market leading to lower local interest rates and an expanded interest rate differential with the U.S. [1][2]. - There is a potential for the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" to be triggered again, as the banking system's balance decreases and local interest rates may rise, aligning with the design of the linked exchange rate system [2]. Group 3: Market Demand for HKD - The peak period for dividend payouts by listed companies is nearing its end, which may reduce demand for HKD [3]. - Non-local companies are expected to convert HKD raised from IPOs or bond issuances back to their home currencies [3]. - The demand for HKD related to half-year settlements has largely been met, leading to a decrease in market demand for the currency [3].
香港金管局发声!
券商中国· 2025-07-13 04:39
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is actively managing liquidity to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) under the linked exchange rate system, with recent fluctuations in demand for HKD leading to interventions to uphold the currency's value [1][4]. Group 1: HKD Demand and Supply Dynamics - In May and June, there was a strong demand for HKD, but this demand decreased by late June and early July due to several factors, including the end of the dividend season for listed companies and the repatriation of funds by non-local companies from IPOs or bond issuances [2][4]. - The HKMA has intervened multiple times to withdraw liquidity, with a total of at least 590.72 billion HKD being bought back since late June [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Sensitivity - The overnight interbank lending rates are becoming more sensitive to changes in market liquidity, with expectations that these rates may rise in the future [1][8]. - The interest rate spread between HKD and USD has widened significantly, with the overnight HKD rate dropping to 0.03% by the end of May, while the USD rate remained around 4.35%, resulting in a spread of 4.32 percentage points [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The HKMA warns that the potential for HKD interest rates to rise should be anticipated, especially as liquidity conditions change and external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and global financial market trends evolve [9]. - The HKMA will continue to monitor financial market changes closely and maintain the effectiveness of the linked exchange rate system to ensure monetary and financial stability in Hong Kong [9].
重阳问答︱如何看待港币流动性变化及其对港股的影响
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-08 10:35
Core Viewpoint - The liquidity changes in Hong Kong dollars (HKD) are a response to market dynamics and have significant implications for the Hong Kong stock market, with the fundamental economic conditions being a more critical factor than liquidity itself [1][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Changes - On June 26, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold US dollars and bought HKD to withdraw 9.42 billion HKD from the market due to the HKD exchange rate hitting the weak end of the peg at 7.85 HKD per USD [1]. - On July 2, HKMA further withdrew 20.018 billion HKD from the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity [1]. - The HKD is pegged to the USD, and the HKMA's actions are part of a system that maintains the exchange rate within a specified range, responding to market demand for HKD [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent liquidity withdrawal is a dynamic balance following excessive HKD liquidity injected in early May, which led to a significant increase in interbank liquidity from 44.6 billion HKD to 174.1 billion HKD [2]. - The overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) remained low at around 0.5% for two months, indicating a misjudgment in the demand for HKD by the banking system [2]. - The rapid expansion of the USD-HKD interest rate differential has led to increased carry trade activities, causing the HKD to touch the weak end of the peg within a month [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - HKD liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample, with the primary influence on the Hong Kong stock market being the underlying economic fundamentals rather than liquidity levels [3]. - The current high interest rate differential of 3%-4% between USD and HKD is unlikely to persist, suggesting a gradual recovery of HKD liquidity and a rise in Hibor rates [3]. - The demand for HKD is expected to increase due to a weaker USD, inflows from the southbound trading, and a surge in Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a positive outlook for the HKD liquidity situation [3].