研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（香港市场观察·第 2 期） 2025 年 9 月 30 日 民银国际研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 金管局跟随降息，港股保持热度 【资金市场】 9 月以来港元隔夜 HIBOR 大幅波动，长端利率稳步上行。9 月 29 日港元隔夜 HIBOR 较 8 月末回落 28bp 至 3.715%，但其余期限利 率均较 8 月末升高。港元与美元负利差继续收窄，1 个月利差由 8 月末的-104bp 收窄至 9 月 29 日的-54bp。港元与人民币利差扩大， 1 个月利差由 8 月末的 155bp 扩大至 9 月 26 日的 189bp。 9 月 18日香港金管局跟随美联储降息，下调基本利率 25bp 至 4.5%。 考虑到美联储仍将保持降息，联系汇率制度下香港利率仍有下降空 间，有利于香港金融市场、楼市及整体经济的复苏。 港元较美元整体升值，银行体系结余保持平稳。9 月港元较美元小 幅升值，对人民币保持相对稳定。至 9 月 29 日银行体系总结余为 542 亿港元，与 8 月末基本相当。当前 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50% on September 18, 2025, marking the first reduction since December 2024, primarily following the actions of the Federal Reserve [4][6] - The cut is a response to global economic conditions, particularly the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.3% and a decrease in CPI to 2.9%, indicating economic slowdown [4][6] - The interest rate reduction is expected to lower financing costs for businesses and residents, stimulating economic activity and consumer spending [6][9] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.78%, with technology stocks, particularly Baidu, gaining over 15% [3][6] - The reduction in interest rates is anticipated to attract both overseas and mainland Chinese capital into the Hong Kong stock market, creating a resonance effect [3][10] - Real estate is expected to be one of the most directly benefited sectors, as lower mortgage rates will stimulate housing demand [8][9] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The interest rate cut is seen as a measure to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar and the orderly operation of the monetary market, reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [10][12] - The reduction in financing costs is likely to enhance the business environment, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase consumer disposable income, benefiting sectors like retail and dining [9][10] - The current economic climate presents a favorable opportunity for individuals looking to establish or expand businesses in Hong Kong, as lower borrowing costs can facilitate investment [12][21] Group 4: Identity and Investment Opportunities - The interest rate environment creates a window for individuals seeking to apply for Hong Kong identity, as reduced financing costs lower the economic burden of settling in Hong Kong [14][16] - Various pathways for obtaining Hong Kong identity, such as the High Talent Scheme and the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, are highlighted as advantageous during this period of lower interest rates [18][19] - The overall market liquidity improvement is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong assets, providing diverse investment opportunities for residents [13][21]

港元对美元汇率走势图 ◎记者 黄冰玉 港元正以逾20年来罕见的速度走强，近期创下2003年以来最强30日升势。 分析人士普遍认为，本轮港元升值的背后，既有货币市场环境改变的直接推动，也有"内外资共振"的港 股吸"金"表现作为强大后盾，而根基则在于中国经济的稳健与韧性。 港元升速亮眼 自此前香港金管局频繁出手收紧资金后，8月中旬港元对美元汇率从7.85的"弱方兑换保证"水平急速拉 升，随后一路上行。目前，港元对美元汇率徘徊在7.77水平附近，过去30天上涨约1%，为2003年以来 最强30日升势。 与此同时，多期限HIBOR（香港银行同业拆借利率）大幅上涨。隔夜港元拆借利率已从8月中旬的不足 0.2%大幅上升至9月24日的4.45%。 今年5月以来，港元对美元汇率走势呈现变动幅度大、速度快的两大特征：先是在5月初时触及从7.75 的"强方兑换保证水平"，又在6月中旬由"强方"到"弱方"，创下1983年联系汇率制度创立以来最快强弱 转换纪录，随后于8月中旬再度"扶摇直上"，由弱向强，并延续至今。 这一系列"急速反转"，源于联系汇率制度：如果港元汇率触发强方兑换保证，香港金融管理局就会买入 美元、卖出港元，将港元汇 ...

钛媒体App 9月18日消息，澳门金融管理局今日（18日）下调贴现窗基本利率25个基点至4.50%，为年 内首次下调该政策性利率。 因应澳门元与港元挂钩，为维持港澳联系汇率制度有效运作，两地政策性 利率变动必须基本一致。因此，澳门金管局跟随香港金融管理局同步下调基本利率25个基点。香港的相 关利率调整，亦是基于在港元与美元挂钩的联系汇率制度下，美国联邦储备局在2025年9月17日（美国 时间）下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点所致。（大湾区之声） ...

中银香港、汇丰银行和渣打银行三大发钞行随即宣布下调最优惠利率12.5个基点。 降息潮水，速抵香江。 当地时间9月17日，美联储如期降息25个基点后，香港金融管理局于次日同步将基本利率下调25个基点 至4.5%。中银香港、汇丰银行和渣打银行三大发钞行随即宣布下调最优惠利率（Prime Rate，简称P） 12.5个基点。 业内认为，此举直接降低企业与居民的信贷成本，尤其缓解了采用"P按"机制的购房者按揭压力，被认 为利好香港楼市。此外，特区政府在前一日发布的施政报告中提出，扩大八所公立大学非本地生招生名 额，预计将进一步刺激租赁需求，支撑租金水平上行。 尽管多家机构认为降息通常利好股市，但由于市场已提前消化预期，利好兑现后港股不涨反跌。9月18 日，恒生指数与恒生科技指数均高开低走，呈现短期回调态势。 基准利率降低25个基点 香港金融管理局于9月18日宣布，将基本利率下调25个基点至4.5%，此次调整紧随美联储前一日降息25 个基点的步伐，符合市场预期。 香港基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基础利率。计算公式为，当前的美国 联邦基金利率目标区间的下限加50基点，或隔夜及1个月香港银行同业拆 ...

Core Insights - The phenomenon of Hong Kong dollar (HKD) interest rates being persistently lower than US dollar (USD) interest rates is primarily attributed to long-term net capital inflows leading to excess HKD liquidity [1][6] - The significant growth in HKD monetary base since 2000 is largely due to Hong Kong's status as a free trade port and a gateway between China and the world, resulting in substantial international capital inflows, particularly into the securities market [1] - The HKD/USD exchange rate has remained close to the strong-side guarantee level of 7.75, reflecting the impact of these capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The demand for short-term foreign exchange fund notes has surged as Hong Kong banks manage liquidity in the context of ongoing net capital inflows [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has increased the supply of high-quality foreign exchange fund notes, leading to an excess of HKD liquidity in the market [2] - The HKD swap market plays a crucial role in HKD funding, with active trading and strong liquidity, resulting in actual swap points being consistently lower than theoretical swap points [2] Group 2 - The carry trade between HKD and USD offers some opportunities, but the strategy is subject to significant short-term volatility, making it difficult to maintain a zero interest rate differential over the long term [6] - Market interventions by the HKMA can have a substantial impact, such as causing rapid widening of the HKD/USD interest rate spread following interventions [6] - The persistent lower interest rates of HKD compared to USD are influenced by multiple factors, including excess liquidity from long-term capital inflows, strong demand for HKD in the swap market, and the short-term volatility of carry trades [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent tightening of Hong Kong dollar supply and increased demand have led to the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, with the narrowing of the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US [1][5][6] Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is expected to maintain a tight liquidity level in the short term, as the Hong Kong dollar is no longer near the weak end of its exchange rate peg [1][6] - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and interest rate performance are highly dependent on the US dollar's movements and US monetary policy [4] - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US is a key factor influencing capital flows and the Hong Kong dollar's valuation [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in IPO activities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and inflows of southbound capital are expected to support the demand for the Hong Kong dollar [1][6] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong banking system has decreased significantly, from a high of 174.1 billion HKD on May 8 to 53.7 billion HKD as of August 18 [5] - The HIBOR rates have risen significantly, indicating a return to more normalized levels, which is expected to support the Hong Kong dollar's strength [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the Hong Kong dollar is expected to maintain a strong performance, supported by ongoing IPO activities and increased demand [6] - The overall demand for the Hong Kong dollar is anticipated to show resilience despite the end of the dividend season and reduced seasonal financing needs from banks [6]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月29日中信观点：港元汇率与利率受多因素影响，短期或偏强运行】中信指出，在联系汇率制度 下，港元汇率和利率高度依赖美元走势与美国货币政策，也受资本流动、港币供需变动等影响。 近 日，因港币供给收缩、需求增加，港元与港币利率一同走高。 展望短期，港币汇率或偏强运行， HIBOR利率将逐步恢复常态化水平。 ...

2025.08．21 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 8月20日，持续流入港股的南向资金罕见净流出约146.82亿港元，恒升指数当天上涨0.17%，也大幅跑输 上证指数1.04%的涨幅，今年持续领跑的港股会被A股赶上吗？ 截至8月20日收盘，恒生指数今年累计上涨25.45%，领先上证指数12.37%的涨幅。但过去一个月，上证 指数涨幅接近6%，而恒生指数仅为0.69%。在这背后，港元汇率、港元拆息近期迅速飙升引发全球投资 者关注。 8月18日〜19日，1个月香港港元银行同业拆息（HIBOR）连续两天分别上涨56个基点，报2.574%，创 近3个月新高。香港金管局（下称"金管局"）的猛烈"抽水"是主因。 建银国际首席港股策略师赵文利对第一财经记者表示，近期因港元汇率触及7.85弱方兑换保证，金管局 为稳定港元汇率，再次入市干预，先后于8月13日、8月14日买入70.65亿港元和33.76亿港元，银行体系 总结余于8月15日减少至537.16亿港元。今年6月以来，金管局已12次承接港元卖盘，累计承接1199.7亿 港元，相当于今年5月初注入1294亿港元流动性的92.7%。 先"放水"，后"抽水"，一顿操作下来，港元 ...

Group 1 - Southbound funds experienced a rare net outflow of approximately 14.68 billion HKD on August 20, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.04% increase [1] - As of August 20, the Hang Seng Index has risen 25.45% year-to-date, leading the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.37% [1] - The recent surge in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has drawn global investor attention, with the 1-month HIBOR rising sharply to 2.574%, marking a three-month high [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, buying a total of 104.41 billion HKD on August 13 and 14 [1] - Since June, the HKMA has intervened 12 times, absorbing a total of 119.97 billion HKD, which is 92.7% of the liquidity injected in early May [1][4] - The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to the HKMA's actions to manage the exchange rate within the 7.75 to 7.85 range, affecting liquidity and interbank rates [3][4] Group 3 - The recent increase in HIBOR is the second significant rise since May, influenced by both external and internal factors, including the overall weakness of the US dollar [4] - The liquidity in the banking system has decreased to 53.716 billion HKD, which is close to the threshold where significant upward pressure on HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate may occur [4][6] - The market sentiment has shifted, with hedge funds closing their long positions on the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, indicating a potential for further appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar [2][6] Group 4 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been under pressure due to rising interest rates and the strong performance of the A-share market, which has gained nearly 6% in the past month compared to the Hang Seng Index's 0.69% [8][9] - Analysts predict that the A-share market may catch up to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the latter part of 2025, driven by strong market sentiment and structural differentiation within the market [9][10] - Despite a cautious sentiment among institutions, the overall bull market trend for Hong Kong stocks remains intact, with significant net inflows from southbound funds reaching over 950 billion HKD this year [10][11]