大摩认为，美联储货币政策和流动性紧缩引发的美股短期波动，恰恰为多头提供了加仓机会。 追风交易台消息，11月24日摩根士丹利Michael J Wilson的研究团队在最新报告中指出，尽管标普500指数层面 回撤仅5%，但市值前1000大公司中三分之二已回撤超10%，显示市场内部调整已较为充分。 首先，高动能股对流动性收紧更为敏感，在美国财政总账户（TGA）于10月15日开始显著上 升后便已见顶； 其次，以标普500和纳斯达克100为代表的高质量指数，则对美联储在10月29日联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）会议上传递的鹰派信号反应更剧烈。 （标准指数在10 了10%以上的跌幅） （三分之二的股票出现 研报指出，美股动量股在10月15日见顶，当时财政部TGA账户因政美国府停摆而显著上升。标普500指数则在 10月29日美联储会议当天见顶，鲍威尔当时表示12月降息"远非板上钉钉"。 摩根士丹利认为，虽然短期内货币政策相关风险可能持续，但美股大幅调整已接近尾声。分析师维持对美股未 来12个月的看涨立场，重点推荐消费品、医疗保健、金融、工业板块和小盘股。 指数"风平浪静"，个股"血流成河" 大摩指出，近期美股市场表面看 ...

近期，市场对美联储12月利率路径的判断出现显著分歧。 此前，因通胀温和与劳动力数据疲软，市场普遍认为12月再次降息几乎已成定局；然而，美联储近期一系列鹰派表态为这一乐观预期泼下冷水。尽管周五有官 员释放鸽派信号，但关于年底货币政策走向的争论仍未平息。 美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新的"Flow Show"报告中表示， 基于当前流动性收紧对多个资产类别造成的冲击，美联储正面临被迫继续降息的 压力，而加密货币市场将成为首个感知到央行政策转向的风向标。 Hartnett指出，加密货币、信贷、美元和私募股权等资产均已显现"流动性峰值"信号。 过去两年全球央行实施多次降息推动了市场的投机情绪，但近期美联储的鹰派言论令市场对2026年进一步宽松政策产生疑虑。加密货币受到重挫，比特币、以 太坊持续下跌，凸显了流动性收紧对风险资产的冲击。 Hartnett预期，当前美股银行股的疲软正释放出与2018年12月相似的信号，流动性敏感板块的持续下跌或将迫使美联储转向宽松政策。 日本债务危机加剧全球流动性担忧 日本正面临债券和日元同步崩盘的危机。30年期国债近两周下跌5%，全年累计跌幅已达12%，创19 ...

美国 银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新研究报告中指出，当前流动性收紧已经对多个资产类 别造成明显冲击，美联储正面临持续降息的压力，而加密货币市场将成为首个感知政策转向的风向球。 今年以来，全球央行累计316次降息催生了流动性盛宴，直接推动AI投资热潮、日股剧烈波动及加密货 币投机行为。Hartnett预判，2026年美联储恐重演"政策投降"，被迫开启降息周期，届时长天期零息债 券(凭借长天期优势兑现利率下行估值溢价)、比特币(对流动性变化最敏感，常领先救市信号启动上 涨)、中型股(对融资成本敏感，降息后将展现盈利能力上涨与补涨股)等三类资产将最受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below the $80,000 mark, reflecting a decline of over 30% from its historical peak of $126,000 in early October, marking a new low in seven months [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price is $86,161, with a daily increase of 2.91% but a weekly decline of 8.32% [1]. - Ethereum is priced at $2,805, with a weekly drop of 10.12% and a monthly decline of 26% [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered significant losses, exceeding 20% [3]. Market Dynamics - The downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, tightening liquidity, and a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index [3]. - Institutional funds that previously supported Bitcoin's rise are showing signs of withdrawal, influenced by a cooling of pro-crypto policies post-US elections and a correction in tech stocks [3]. Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened fear, with a significant number of liquidations occurring; over $1 billion in contracts were liquidated in 24 hours, affecting approximately 183,500 traders [3]. - The current situation is seen as a notable indicator of a deep correction in the cryptocurrency market, with widespread panic impacting market confidence [3]. Risk Factors - Investors face several risks, including liquidation risk due to leveraged trading, market liquidity risk, and policy risk, which can exacerbate market volatility [4]. - The fear of a bear market is prevalent among cryptocurrency participants, prompting discussions about the sustainability of the $80,000 support level [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the $80,000 support level holds, there may be a potential for a rebound, although the strength and sustainability of such a rebound remain uncertain due to ongoing adverse factors [4]. - Long-term price movements for Bitcoin are expected to be driven by macro liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory policies [5].

"每次美联储吹哨，都不是狼来了的童话。" 这句历经市场检验的判断，在库克点名四大金融风险领域 后更显沉重。当前，美国股市、公司债券、杠杆贷款与房地产市场正处于流动性退潮的敏感地带，对冲 基金持有的美债比例飙升至 10.3% 的历史新高，规模占美国 GDP 11% 的私人信贷市场违约风险隐现。 尽管库克强调金融体系韧性胜于 2008 年，但美联储逆回购余额从 2.55 万亿美元骤降至 2190 亿美元的 现实，意味着全球市场 "缓冲垫" 已大幅变薄。在此背景下，曾在油价波动中展现强大韧性的中国市 场，正面临跨境风险传导与本土防御的双重考验，其应对策略既关乎自身金融安全，更影响全球经济稳 定节奏。 全球风险图谱：四大雷区与私人信贷暗涌 库克警示的四大资产领域，正形成相互交织的风险网络。这些资产在流动性充裕期积累的泡沫，已随着 美联储政策转向显现裂痕：美国商业地产空置率升至 12%，与 2008 年危机前夕水平相当；高收益债券 利差较年初扩大 40 个基点，杠杆贷款违约率攀升至 3.8%。更值得警惕的是美债市场的脆弱性 —— 对 冲基金的高比例持仓意味着，一旦利率波动触发平仓，可能引发 "抛售 — 收益率飙升 — ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly focusing on the impact of liquidity tightening and the potential for future market rallies, emphasizing the characteristics of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Market Performance - The overall market saw a slight decline, with the CSI All Share Index down by 0.28%, currently rated at 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 experienced minor gains, while small-cap stocks faced declines [2] - The previously overvalued CSI 2000 index saw a drop of 1.4% [3] - Value stocks demonstrated resilience against market downturns [4] - Indices related to undervalued sectors, such as Hong Kong and Shenzhen dividend and free cash flow indices, showed an increase [5] - Growth sectors, particularly the STAR Market, experienced more significant declines, with a correction of over 10% from their peak [6] Liquidity Concerns - Recent market volatility is attributed to concerns over the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, leading to short-term liquidity tightening [12] - This liquidity tightening has resulted in a simultaneous decline across various asset classes, including stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies [13] - Historical precedents for such liquidity crises were noted, with global stock indices experiencing an average pullback of approximately 3.9% from their highs [17] - The A-share market's decline was relatively modest at about 3.2% from its peak, with dividend-related stocks reaching historical highs last week [20] Future Liquidity and Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually enter a phase of interest rate cuts, given the high interest burden on U.S. debt, which exceeds $1 trillion annually [23] - The timing of these cuts may vary, potentially being delayed by several months [23] - The article asserts that there will be future phases of market increases, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [24] Characteristics of Bull Markets - Bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are characterized by rapid increases rather than gradual rises, with significant gains occurring in short bursts [25] - Since September 2024, A-shares have risen by 40-50%, with most gains concentrated in the last two weeks of September and select days in August and September 2025 [26][27] - The fastest recorded increase in A-shares over the past decade occurred in late September 2024 [28] - The article emphasizes that substantial market gains typically occur in only about 7% of trading days, which contribute to the majority of returns [31] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be patient and prepared for potential waiting periods between market rallies, as significant increases may be separated by months of sideways movement [34] - The article highlights that despite the overall positive performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, a significant portion of retail investors may still be at a loss due to poor timing in buying and selling [43] - The article concludes with a reminder that good investment returns come from a combination of quality assets, favorable pricing, and long-term holding strategies [46]

黄金、白银价格跳水。 美股三大指数盘前大幅下挫。 比特币七个月来首次跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。有分析师称："股指一直紧张地向下波 动，而比特币——通常被视为高贝塔风险资产的代理——几乎是一点一滴地跟随这些走势，这种相关性为市场情绪再添压力，因为加密货 币走弱强化了流动性收紧和风险厌恶的印象。" A股方面，市场全天低开低走，三大指数午后均跌超1%。截至收盘， 沪指跌0.81%，深成指跌0.92%，创业板指跌1.16%。 【导读】全球暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今天的市场，全球股灾，遭遇了黑色星期二。 一起看看发生了什么事情。 黑色星期二 11月18日，全球股市暴跌， 日经225指数收跌3.22%，创自四月以来最大单日跌幅，收于49000点下方。韩国KOSPI指数收跌3.32%，风 险情绪恶化，芯片股领跌市场。 | く 気 | 亚太指数 () | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅↑ | 涨跌 | | 韩国 KOSPI200 | 556.45 | -3.50% | -20.20 | | KOSPI200 | ...

Group 1 - The sentiment indicator has significantly declined, likely triggering a buy signal, with historical data showing an average 7.5% increase in the S&P 500 index over the next three months and a probability of over 90% for this outcome [1] - The S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 has been raised from 6600-6800 points to 7100 points, indicating a bullish outlook despite various concerns [1] - The liquidity situation is expected to improve as the Treasury General Account (TGA) has been replenished to $1 trillion, the highest level since the pandemic, and quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing its end [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding consumer health and layoffs may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next month, which could result in a broad market rally [2] - Retail sales during the holiday season may act as a "bad news fully priced in" event for consumer stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities if companies lower expectations in upcoming earnings reports [2] - Historical data suggests that market corrections of over 10% occur on average 0.8 times per year, indicating that such pullbacks are a normal part of a healthy bull market [2] Group 3 - Investors are encouraged to focus on artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks, which are expected to benefit from a long-term investment cycle regardless of profitability from companies like OpenAI [3] - Even with high valuations, earnings growth can drive stock market increases, with a projected annual total return rate of 8% for the S&P 500 index if earnings per share grow by 10% annually over the next five years [3] - The S&P 500 index is projected to potentially reach 9500 points by the end of 2030 based on these growth assumptions [3] Group 4 - The S&P 500 index closed around 6850 points, making the bullish outlook plausible [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The reopening of the US government creates fundamental bearish factors for precious metal prices, especially international gold prices, from the perspective of easing recession trading. However, the previous pressure on gold and silver prices was mainly due to liquidity tightening rather than strong overseas economic fundamentals. Therefore, in the context of the restoration of US dollar liquidity, the prices of gold and silver, as important major assets, will be boosted in the short term [3] - It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 927 - 968 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11,575 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - On November 11, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 2.23% to 944.76 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 3.09% to 11,868.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4,123.40 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 50.41 US dollars/ounce; the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.13%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.62 [2] - As of November 11, the gold - silver ratio was 81.5, still significantly higher than the historical average of 62 since 1971 [3] Macroeconomic Situation in the US - Since the "Big and Beautiful" bill was officially passed in July 2025 and the debt ceiling issue was resolved, the balance of the US Treasury's cash (TGA account) on the Fed's liability side has continued to rise, from 311.1 billion US dollars on July 9 to 852 billion US dollars on October 15. Due to the government shutdown, the TGA account balance reached 942.7 billion US dollars on November 5, and the deposit reserve scale dropped from 29.8 million US dollars at the beginning of October to 28.5 million US dollars. The spread between the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the effective federal funds rate significantly widened, reaching a high of 0.36% on October 31. The US dollar index was strong, and precious metal prices and overseas equity markets were significantly under pressure [2] Market Charts and Data Tables - The report provides multiple charts and data tables, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, and other data, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [6][51]

Group 1: Dollar Index Insights - The recent rise in the dollar index is primarily driven by U.S. internal policy expectations and economic data support, with the Fed's rate cut expectations dropping from 82% to 67% for December[1] - October ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000, exceeding the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a stable job market[1] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index also surpassed expectations, suggesting continued economic strength in the U.S.[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Risk Factors - U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising from $800 billion to $1 trillion, while bank reserves fell to a record low of $2.8 trillion[1] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22%, exceeding the policy rate range of 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in non-U.S. economies, such as the weakening of the British pound and euro, have further strengthened the dollar's relative position[1] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - For the week of November 1 to November 8, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.63%[2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.19%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.04% during the same period[2] - Commodity prices saw declines, with WTI crude oil down by 2.02% and SHFE rebar down by 2.27%[2] Group 4: Inventory and Positioning - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44.355 million tons, increasing by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 14,032 contracts, up by 1,541 contracts, while short positions decreased to 24,376 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings increased to 3,350 million ounces, reflecting a rise of 90,000 ounces[3]