Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with all three major indices declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.7%. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 6.51% this month, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 indices have fallen more than 10% this month [1]. - The conflict between the United States and Iran has disturbed the capital market, causing significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which first fell and then rose. The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate level, and Powell's stance was hawkish. The dot - plot shows only one expected interest rate cut this year, increasing the risk - aversion sentiment in the capital market [1]. - In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation correction [1]. - The current macro - economy is in a stage of steady recovery, structural optimization, and moderate inflation, which is negative for the bond market. In the short term, it is mainly in a volatile and bearish state, with long - term interest rates under more pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital market [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was volatile, with most stocks falling. The trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined. The Fed's decision and the US - Iran conflict affected the market, and the A - share technology sector may face valuation adjustments [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts all rose. The central bank conducted 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets generally declined [1][2]. Daily Price Changes | Variety | 2026 - 03 - 31 | 2026 - 03 - 30 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,804.0 | 2,812.4 | - 8.4 | - 0.30% | | IF | 4,375.8 | 4,414.0 | - 38.2 | - 0.87% | | IC | 7,425.0 | 7,560.6 | - 135.6 | - 1.79% | | IM | 7,379.4 | 7,509.4 | - 130.0 | - 1.73% | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,826.1 | 2,833.2 | - 7.1 | - 0.25% | | CSI 300 | 4,450.0 | 4,492.0 | - 41.9 | - 0.93% | | CSI 500 | 7,617.3 | 7,753.7 | - 136.4 | - 1.76% | | CSI 1000 | 7,619.9 | 7,767.9 | - 148.1 | - 1.91% | | TS | 102.54 | 102.54 | - 0.006 | - 0.01% | | TF | 106.11 | 106.09 | 0.015 | 0.01% | | T | 108.40 | 108.39 | 0.01 | 0.01% | | TL | 111.69 | 111.60 | 0.09 | 0.08% | [3] Market News - The market adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices falling. High - speed rail and rail transit, and two - wheeled vehicle concept stocks rose, while computing power hardware stocks adjusted [4]. - Most stocks fell, with more than 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closing in the red. The trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan [4]. - In terms of sectors, high - speed rail and rail transit, automobile manufacturing, engineering machinery, and banks led the gains, while coal, oil and gas, wind power, and chemical industries led the losses [5]. - There were 903 rising stocks, 59 limit - up stocks, 4,192 falling stocks, 16 limit - down stocks, and 17 stocks with their limit - up broken, with a broken - limit - up rate of 34% [6]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts [8][10][12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends, basis trends, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rate trends of Treasury bond futures contracts [15][17][19][21]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [24][25][27][29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market declined 0.25% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 2.75%, while non - ferrous and black metals rose 2.14% and 0.55% respectively. The market may continue to oscillate due to factors such as the Middle East situation and liquidity tightening [2][7]. - The short - term commodity market is expected to be mainly volatile as the market repeatedly assesses the Middle East war situation, with high oil prices potentially lasting longer, a relatively strong US dollar, and continued liquidity tightening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market fell 0.25% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 2.75%, agricultural products and energy - chemical products dropped 1.15% and 0.12% respectively, while non - ferrous and black metals increased 2.14% and 0.55% [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly last week. Energy - chemical varieties mostly had obvious volatility increases, and gold and coking coal also saw large volatility increases [2][7]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale continued to decline, with only the black sector having a small net inflow of funds, and the main outflow coming from the precious metals sector [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: There is a huge difference in the cease - fire demands between the US and Iran, and the war is unlikely to end in the short term. The market sentiment fluctuates with information about the US - Iran war, and the sector will oscillate until the war situation becomes clearer [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Middle East situation dominates trading. The strong US dollar index exerts pressure, but the resource attributes of non - ferrous varieties are prominent. With the price decline, downstream replenishment and production are active, and inventory inflection points appear, supporting prices. The short - term sector may oscillate [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up, production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Blast furnaces are in the seasonal resumption of production, and hot metal output is rising, but poor steel mill profits limit the upward space. Iron ore shipments may be affected by the hurricane in Australia, and domestic port inventories are seasonally decreasing. Geopolitical conflicts support coking coal prices. The short - term sector may be stable [3]. - **Energy**: It is difficult for Iran and the US to reach a cease - fire agreement in the short term, and the situation escalated over the weekend. There is a large gap between the capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East and the normal transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, oil prices have high two - way volatility risks, and in the long term, the key variable for oil price trends is the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: The turmoil in the Middle East strongly supports the cost side of the chemical sector. Asphalt and methanol may have strong upward elasticity and limited downward space. For olefins, high prices squeeze downstream profits, and demand is expected to weaken. For aromatic varieties, downstream polyester, printing and dyeing, and textile industries have slight capacity increases, but terminal follow - up is slow [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products fluctuate with crude oil. The expected El Niño climate model and the undetermined time of Trump's visit to China increase the sector's uncertainty. During the new crop planting period, the fertilizer market's contradictions need time to be observed, and the planting structure and crop yields need to be monitored. The short - term sector may oscillate [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of about 4% and a combined scale decline of 3.89%. The trading volume also decreased significantly [37]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.35% return, the feed bean粕 ETF declined 2.82%, the non - ferrous metal ETF rose 1.43%, and the silver futures (LOF) declined 1.28% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.34% at yesterday's close. The intensive release of battle reports and follow - up plans by both sides of the US - Iran conflict and the Fed's interest - rate decision have disturbed the capital market. Global stock indexes have declined significantly, and emerging markets have seen larger drops. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline. The view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors yesterday. The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 26, with a net injection of 211 billion yuan. The current macro - economic situation is in a good development stage, which is negative for the bond market. In the short term, it is mainly oscillating with a bearish bias, and long - term interest rates are more under pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable due to the support of the capital market. The view on treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, IH fell 0.89% (from 2,830.0 to 2,804.8), IF fell 1.21% (from 4,450.0 to 4,396.0), IC fell 1.54% (from 7,530.0 to 7,413.8), and IM fell 1.36% (from 7,477.4 to 7,375.6) [2]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.22% (from 2,859.5 to 2,824.7), the CSI 300 Index fell 1.32% (from 4,537.5 to 4,477.5), the CSI 500 Index fell 1.62% (from 7,767.7 to 7,642.1), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.44% (from 7,751.2 to 7,639.4) [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.02% (from 102.49 to 102.51), TF rose 0.06% (from 105.91 to 105.97), T rose 0.08% (from 108.16 to 108.25), and TL rose 0.22% (from 111.18 to 111.43) [2]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.27, 1.14, 0.84, and 0.65 respectively [2]. 3. Market News - The Ministry of National Defense spokesman stated that the key to resolving the current crisis in the Middle East lies in an immediate cease - fire and a return to the negotiation table to avoid further escalation of the situation [3]. 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [5][7][9]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][14][16][18]. 4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB (1M and 3M), the US dollar index, the euro - US dollar exchange rate, the pound - US dollar exchange rate, and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [21][22][24][26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.3% and returning above 3,900 points. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict may impact global energy supply, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and downstream industries. The Fed's hawkish stance and the increase in risk - aversion in the capital market may lead to a valuation decline in the previously strong technology sector of A - shares. It is recommended to balance the allocation of large - and small - cap indices for risk hedging [1] - For treasury bonds, the current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally bearish for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the oil price center has significantly shifted upwards, accelerating the expected recovery of domestic inflation data. Short - term trading will be mainly in a volatile adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.69% from 2,810.6 to 2,830.0; IF rose 1.40% from 4,388.4 to 4,450.0; IC rose 1.62% from 7,409.6 to 7,530.0; IM rose 1.22% from 7,387.2 to 7,477.4 [4] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.01% from 2,830.9 to 2,859.5; the CSI 300 rose 1.40% from 4,474.7 to 4,537.5; the CSI 500 rose 2.24% from 7,597.4 to 7,767.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.98% from 7,600.9 to 7,751.2 [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.01% from 102.48 to 102.49; TF fell 0.01% from 105.92 to 105.91; T fell 0.01% from 108.17 to 108.16; TL fell 0.05% from 111.24 to 111.18 [4] 3.2 Market News - The market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Green power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors led the gains, while oil and gas stocks adjusted. Over 4,800 stocks rose, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [5] - In terms of sectors, power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors had the highest increases, while oil and gas, photovoltaic equipment, and gas sectors declined slightly [5] - There were 4,615 rising stocks, 105 limit - up stocks, 521 falling stocks, 4 limit - down stocks, and 14 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - breaking rate of 17% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [7][8][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][15][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with a significant divergence between the yellow and white lines, and the micro - cap stock index soared by over 5%. The expectation of the escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased, which may have a more profound impact on global energy supply, causing crude oil and its downstream industries to continue to rise sharply. The Fed maintained the interest rate level, and Powell's stance was hawkish. The dot - plot shows only one expected interest rate cut this year, increasing the risk - aversion sentiment in the capital market. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline. It is recommended to allocate large - and small - cap indexes evenly for risk hedging [1] - The treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts and slight changes in others. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. The market will be mainly in a state of shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates facing more significant pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market showed a significant divergence between large - cap and micro - cap stocks. The US - Iran conflict led to rising oil prices, and the Fed's hawkish stance increased risk - aversion sentiment. Global major stock indexes fell, and emerging markets had larger declines. In the medium term, the technology sector in the A - share market may face valuation adjustments. It is recommended to balance large - and small - cap index allocations [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment is negative for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the bond market will be in shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable [1][3] 3.2 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, IH rose by 1.25%, IF by 1.01%, IC by 2.41%, IM by 2.74%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index by 1.38%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.28%, the CSI 500 Index by 2.11%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 2.59% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, TS fell by 0.02%, TF remained unchanged, T rose by 0.02%, and TL rose by 0.48% [4] 3.3 Market News - The A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78% on light trading volume, and the micro - cap stock index rising by over 5%. Green power concept stocks were active, the military industry sector strengthened, and the lithium - battery sector rose. The oil and gas sector performed weakly. Most stocks rose, with nearly 5,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing higher, and the trading volume reaching 2.1 trillion [5] - In terms of sectors, the military industry, power, medical, and sports sectors led the gains, while only the oil and gas sector declined slightly [5] - There were 4,866 rising stocks, 1,000 limit - up stocks, 299 falling stocks, 8 limit - down stocks, and 22 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - break rate of 21% [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts over time [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures contracts, reflecting the price trends and related spread changes of different - term treasury bond futures [14][15][18][21] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indexes, showing the exchange rate trends of different currencies [23][24][27]

Group 1 - The Middle East tension shows signs of easing, leading to a reduction in market concerns over liquidity tightening, prompting some investors to buy on dips during the Asian trading session on the 25th [1] - As of 9:45 AM Beijing time on the 25th, the London spot gold price reached $4,595.66 per ounce, with an intraday increase of nearly 3% [1] - The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gold futures contract for the main delivery rose to $4,578.40 per ounce, up 4.01% from the previous day's close [1] - The NYMEX silver futures contract for the main delivery increased to $74.110 per ounce, marking a rise of 6.53% from the previous day's close [1]

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices despite geopolitical tensions, highlighting a shift in market dynamics where traditional safe-haven attributes of gold are being overshadowed by a strong US dollar and tightening liquidity conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, with international gold prices falling below $4100 per ounce for the first time since November 24, erasing all gains for the year [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has noted increased volatility in precious metal prices due to various market instability factors, urging investors to manage risks carefully [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have not led to the expected rise in gold prices, as the market is currently influenced more by a strong dollar and rising real interest rates [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that if the geopolitical situation escalates further, it could prolong the current downward adjustment in gold prices, while a significant reversal in the Iran situation could stabilize gold prices more quickly [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks are affecting inflation expectations and market perceptions of Federal Reserve monetary policy, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The dollar's status as a preferred safe-haven asset has strengthened, attracting funds that might have otherwise flowed into gold, resulting in a "dollar up, gold down" scenario [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, long-term support for gold prices remains, driven by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [7][8]. - Analysts believe that once the current liquidity crisis subsides, gold prices may stabilize and potentially rise again, with the market closely watching Federal Reserve policy changes [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Currently, market concerns about demand due to recession and liquidity decline dominate, leading to a high - level correction in aluminum prices. However, supply - side factors such as domestic capacity constraints and overseas Middle - East production cut crises will provide a certain safety margin for aluminum prices and limit the adjustment space. In the medium - to - long term, after market sentiment clears, the price center still has room for upward adjustment [4][9]. - **Casting Aluminum**: The macro - logic has shifted to concerns about liquidity and recession, and the support from scrap aluminum has slightly weakened. Both supply and demand sides are cautious, resulting in a short - term adjustment of casting aluminum [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - **Price Changes**: The price of LME aluminum for 3 months decreased from 3439 yuan/ton on March 13th to 3192 yuan/ton on March 20th, a drop of 247 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous three decreased from 25140 dollars/ton to 24085 dollars/ton, a drop of 1055 dollars/ton. The spot average price decreased from 25014 yuan/ton to 24546 yuan/ton, a drop of 468 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 41590 tons to 403558 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 4.5 tons to 133.9 tons [6]. - **Profit Changes**: The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 9118.21 yuan/ton to 8573.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 545.2 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - environment**: Middle - East energy facilities were attacked, increasing geopolitical risks. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% and raised inflation and economic growth expectations. The US PPI in February increased significantly [7]. - **Domestic Economy**: From January to February, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value increased by 6.3%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries increased by 1% to 62.9%, and demand was slightly released. Consumption recovery varied among sectors [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: On March 19th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 4.5 tons to 133.9 tons, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 1.65 tons to 36.95 tons [8]. - **Casting Aluminum**: The SMM spot price of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 24700 yuan/ton, and the Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 24100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased to 59.5%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6579 tons to 4.8 tons [8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the short term, market concerns about demand due to recession and liquidity decline lead to a high - level correction in aluminum prices. In the medium - to - long term, after market sentiment clears, the price center has room for upward adjustment [9]. - **Casting Aluminum**: The operating rate is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. Both supply and demand sides are cautious, resulting in a short - term adjustment [10]. 3.4 Industry News - In January - February 2026, China's scrap aluminum imports were about 32.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The main import source countries included Thailand, the UK, Japan, and the US [11]. - In January - February 2026, China's primary aluminum imports totaled about 39.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The cumulative net import of primary aluminum was about 36.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [14]. - India's National Aluminum Company (NALCO) put a 130 kWp rooftop solar project into operation. It plans to add 50 - 60 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, but the project progress is limited by power plant construction [14]. - South 32 revised its Q2 2026 Japanese MJP CIF premium offer to 353 dollars/ton [14]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, and various inventory and price change charts, which visually show the market situation of aluminum [13][15][17].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the implications of the Middle East situation on oil prices and U.S. inflation, as well as the "Halo Plus" investment strategy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Middle East Situation on U.S. CPI**: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to oil prices reaching $120 per barrel, potentially causing the U.S. CPI to rise to 6% by 2026, which would hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [1][2][3]. 2. **Liquidity Risks in the U.S.**: Multiple risks are identified regarding U.S. liquidity, including the new Fed Chair's inclination towards "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," inflation pressures in late 2026, weakening long-term demand for U.S. Treasuries, and pressures from yen carry trades [1][2][3]. 3. **"Halo Plus" Strategy**: This strategy suggests investing in high cash flow, heavy asset, and low obsolescence non-AI assets (like coal, petrochemicals, construction, and transportation) to hedge against macroeconomic volatility. The "Plus" segment focuses on low-crowding growth areas such as low-altitude economy, lithium batteries, and commercial aerospace, which are less sensitive to interest rates compared to AI sectors [1][2][5][6]. 4. **Geopolitical Risks and Energy Supply**: The escalation of conflicts threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy passage for 20% of global oil supply, potentially restarting the cycle of inflation adjustments, delayed rate cuts, and tightened liquidity [1][7]. 5. **Market Divergence**: There are two main market perspectives: growth-oriented investors expect a recovery in TMT sectors post-conflict, while conservative investors remain cautious, preferring a step-by-step approach [2][5]. 6. **Evaluation of "Halo Plus" Components**: The "Halo" assets are characterized by high cash flow and low correlation with TMT sectors, while the "Plus" assets are chosen based on low trading crowding and lower interest rate sensitivity, making them more resilient in a volatile liquidity environment [5][6]. 7. **Indicators for Tracking Global Liquidity**: The SOFR-FFFR spread is highlighted as a key indicator of global dollar liquidity, showing signs of tightening since late 2025. Additionally, the decline in Bitcoin prices since Q4 2025 serves as another signal of expected liquidity contraction [8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a shift in market style is discussed, emphasizing that if U.S. liquidity issues arise, it could directly impact financing for AI companies, leading to order downgrades in domestic computing power supply chains [4][5]. - Historical patterns indicate that geopolitical conflicts typically lead to rising oil prices, increased inflationary pressures, and tightening financial conditions, which could adversely affect global equity markets [7].