Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant policy shift by the Trump administration regarding oil price management, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the need to stabilize oil prices amid rising tensions [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Shift - The Trump administration made a rapid policy reversal from opposing to promoting a historic release of strategic oil reserves, amounting to 400 million barrels, which is more than double the previous largest release [3][5]. - Initially, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that large-scale market intervention was premature due to oil prices dropping below $90 per barrel, reflecting Trump's earlier stance [4]. - Within two hours, the U.S. shifted its position, urging allies to support the unprecedented oil release, surprising European officials who ultimately complied [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Concerns - The primary motivation for this release was the Trump administration's deep concern over the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that supplies about one-fifth of the world's oil [5][6]. - Iran had previously threatened to close the Strait if attacked by the U.S., which heightened the urgency for the U.S. response [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the historic scale of the intervention, market skepticism remains regarding its effectiveness, as the released amount is only equivalent to approximately 20 days of transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices still rose over 5% following the announcement [3][8]. - Analysts express doubts about whether the release can stabilize oil prices below $100 per barrel, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Large-scale release of strategic oil reserves can fill the supply gap in the Middle East to some extent, ease market concerns, and reduce speculative premiums in the market. The medium- and long-term oil market trend still depends on the restoration progress of the Strait of Hormuz navigation, the actual implementation rhythm of G7's reserve release, and the subsequent evolution of the Middle East conflict. These three factors will be the core variables guiding the crude oil trend. Currently, with the IEA discussing reserve release and Trump showing signs of releasing TACO, short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. If the reserve release is implemented, Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $90 - $100 per barrel in the short term. Considering the conflict situation, if both the US and Iran show continuous confrontation, $90 per barrel is expected to form support; if the US continues to send out signals of negotiation, $85 per barrel is expected to form support. [2][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Current Situation of Oil Price and Reserve Release - On March 9, the price of Brent crude oil rose to nearly $120 per barrel. In response to the rapid rise in oil prices, the G7 discussed a joint release of strategic oil reserves, with a proposed scale of 300 - 400 million barrels, and the oil price increase quickly reversed. Currently, the G7 meeting has decided not to use the strategic oil reserves for the time being, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reported to have proposed releasing more than 182 million barrels of oil reserves. [1][3] Historical Cases of Reserve Release - There have been four large-scale joint releases of strategic crude oil reserves in history, namely during the 1991 Gulf War, the 2005 US Katrina hurricane, the 2011 Libyan war, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Except for the Gulf War, the other three reserve releases caused oil prices to fall by 7% - 9% from their highs in about a week. [2][3] Impact of Reserve Release on Oil Price - After the release of the news that the G7 was discussing a joint release of strategic oil reserves in the current Iran conflict, the price of Brent crude oil quickly回调 from $115 to $105, in line with the historical callback range. However, after the three historical price callbacks, due to the fundamental supply gap contradiction not being resolved, the oil price rebounded by 5% - 10% for a second time until the contradiction improved and the oil price gradually returned to normal. [8] Reserve Release Ability and Effect - There are significant differences in the reserve capacity and willingness of IEA member countries in the issue of SPR release. The US is communicating and evaluating the SPR reserve scale and actual release effect with other countries, but its current reserve level is at a historical low after continuous large-scale releases in 2022. In addition, the actual release effect may be lower than expected due to the constraints of transportation methods and downstream acceptance. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's statements about the war and Iran's strong counter - attack stance have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices. The market is waiting for the G7's decision on releasing strategic oil reserves. Short - term oil prices will continue to run strongly but with high volatility, and options hedging is recommended for operations [6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI closed at $95.08, down 6.4%; Brent closed at $89.79, down 3.13%; SC closed at 666 yuan/barrel, down 10.76%. Trump's statements caused significant price drops, with WTI falling below $90 and dropping nearly $35 from its high [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term oil prices are strong but highly volatile. Consider using options for hedging [7] 3.2 Industry News - Saudi Aramco CEO: Nearly 200,000 barrels per day out of the 700,000 barrels per day capacity of the east - west oil pipeline will be sent to western domestic refineries, some of which have export capabilities [8] - French Finance Minister: "We are not there yet" regarding the release of strategic oil reserves [8] - Goldman Sachs and Barclays: High long - term oil prices may push US inflation to 3% [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production increase rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][12][19]