Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of mineral transfer registration authority by Shanxi Province's Natural Resources Department has boosted market sentiment, leading to increased trading activity in the alumina market, particularly in the main contract ao2509, which saw a rise of over 4% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The main alumina contract ao2509 experienced a trading volume increase of 123,000 lots, reaching 296,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 18,700 lots to 96,100 lots [1] - The long-short positions in the top 20 rankings for the main alumina contract showed a reduction in both long and short positions, with a significant decrease in short positions by 13,800 lots to 55,280 lots [1] - The long-short ratio increased from 0.89 to 1.01, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook [1] Group 2: Position Changes - Guotai Junan Futures increased its long positions by 664 lots while reducing short positions by 4,016 lots, resulting in a net short position reduction to 2,788 lots [3] - CITIC Futures expanded its long position by over 2,000 lots, transitioning from a net short position of 203 lots to a net long position of 2,696 lots [3] - Other firms like Yong'an Futures and Huatai Futures also adjusted their positions, with some showing a shift from short to long, reflecting expectations of continued upward movement in prices [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the positive market sentiment, reports indicate that domestic mines are unable to resume production, which may limit the impact of the policy change on alumina supply [4] - The actual effect of the policy adjustment on local alumina production is expected to be limited, with new production capacities and the resumption of previously reduced capacities likely to lead to an increase in output [4] - The anticipated increase in alumina supply may outpace demand growth, leading to expectations of oversupply in the market [4]

Group 1 - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 3100.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.39% observed, reaching a low of 3055.0 CNY [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity has rebounded to historical highs, leading to an oversupply situation, while the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low at just over 20,000 tons, making it difficult for futures to decline significantly [1] - There are expectations of production resumption from Guinea mining companies, and with the upcoming import of aluminum oxide in July, the supply pressure is expected to persist [1] Group 2 - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates that the current aluminum oxide spot prices are maintaining a slight premium due to limited spot liquidity, but further upward movement requires more bullish signals from production capacity and inventory changes [2] - The short-term outlook for aluminum oxide is expected to be dominated by fluctuations, while medium to long-term supply pressures remain significant [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of alumina has increased slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on commodities. Domestic alumina supply has turned to surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short - term. The escalation of the Middle East situation may cause freight price fluctuations and affect long - term alumina pricing [1][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were temporarily stable last week. In Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite remained unchanged. Shanxi and Henan mines faced inspections, and the supply decreased, keeping the prices firm. The rainy season in the southern main - producing areas may pose challenges. The price of high - grade bauxite from Guinea was stable at $75 per dry ton, and miners' quotes for resources after July were above $77 per ton (CIF). Downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement demand was saturated, and their purchase intention was concentrated at $65 - 70 per ton (CIF). The rainy season in Guinea affected shipments from July to August. Newly - arrived ore was 4.052 million tons, including 2.859 million tons from Guinea and 0.996 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China dropped to $22 per ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was 3,100 - 3,160 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton; the domestic weighted index was 3,128.1 yuan per ton, a decrease of 64.3 yuan per ton. The port price of imported alumina was 3,200 - 3,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton. The intensified spot discount transactions led to the continuous decline of the spot price. In the northern market, 24,100 tons of spot alumina were traded, an increase of 11,600 tons, and the weighted transaction price was 3,073 yuan per ton, a decrease of 144 yuan per ton. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at an FOB price of $366 per ton, with an import cost of about 3,200 yuan per ton, and the import window was closed. The full cost of domestic alumina was 2,931 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 321 yuan per ton. The domestic alumina production capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.05 million tons (an increase of 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.4% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum Industry started its second - phase production capacity on June 12 and planned to complete the production by mid - July, with about 60,000 tons of production capacity to be put into operation. Yunnan Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. planned to start 35,000 tons of new production capacity on June 13 and complete it within a week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.993 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, there was no change, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.488 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [14] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (June 5), the national alumina inventory was 3.124 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises showed different trends, with an overall slight increase; the alumina enterprises' willingness to actively reduce inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly; the estimated amount of in - transit alumina increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 43,228 tons, a decrease of 37,215 tons from last week. The domestic futures price was weak, and although the perturbation of Guinea ore had subsided, the price might be strong but with limited upside due to the rainy season. Alumina supply had turned to surplus [15] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain during the Week - On June 20, 3,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton for downstream procurement [16] - On June 20, 3,000 tons of alumina were traded in Sanmenxia, Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,120 yuan per ton between the alumina factory and the aluminum factory [16] - In May 2025, China exported 207,800 tons of alumina, a 21% decrease from the previous month and a 105% increase year - on - year; the cumulative export from January to May was 1.172 million tons, a 79% increase year - on - year. The import in May was 67,500 tons, a 530% increase from the previous month and a 26% decrease year - on - year; the cumulative import from January to May was 167,000 tons, an 85% decrease year - on - year. The net export in May was 140,300 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to May was 1.0053 million tons [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost - end - The following data were presented in the form of charts: domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [17][19][24] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The following data were presented in the form of charts: domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina, and the domestic weekly alumina supply - demand balance. The table also showed the alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap from February to June 2025 [31][33][38] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The following data were presented in the form of charts: electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [41][44][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Ore disturbances have subsided, and the supply of alumina has turned into surplus. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory approach in the short - term and a short - selling approach at high levels in the long - term for alumina [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were temporarily stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on production. In Henan, environmental supervision restricted ore production. The rainy season in southern regions poses challenges. Imported Guinea high - grade bauxite (45/3) was stable at 75 dollars/dry ton. SMB plans to increase exports after the AXIS mine closure. Newly arrived ore was 391.3 million tons, with 332.5 million tons from Guinea and 58.8 million tons from Australia. The shipping fee from Guinea to China rose to 26 dollars/ton [11] - **Alumina**: Spot prices fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3180 - 3280 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3192.4 yuan/ton, down 109.8 yuan/ton. Imported alumina port quotes were flat. Large enterprises focused on long - term contracts. Northern market spot sales were 1.25 million tons, up 0.85 million tons, mainly in Henan at 3217 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton. Overseas supply increased, pressuring prices. The domestic full cost was 2929 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 381 yuan/ton. Domestic capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11292 million tons, operating capacity of 9265 million tons (up 200 million tons), and an 82% utilization rate [12] - **Demand**: Domestic and overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged. Domestic operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, and overseas was 2948.8 million tons, both week - on - week flat [12] - **Inventory**: As of June 5th, national alumina inventory was 312.9 million tons, down 0.4 million tons. Long - term contract execution improved, and inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants increased steadily, while port and alumina enterprise inventory decreased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE alumina registered warehouse receipts were 80443 tons, down 10215 tons. With supply turning into surplus, alumina is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold at high levels in the long - term [14] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - Australia sold 3 million tons of alumina on June 13th at 366 dollars/ton FOB for an August shipment [15] - A Guangxi alumina plant reduced production due to higher costs of imported ores. It cut one production line, reducing operating capacity from 250 million tons to 200 million tons [15] - On June 13th, 0.5 million tons of spot alumina were sold in Henan Sanmenxia at 3180 yuan/ton [15] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Include data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [16][18][20] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Include data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, SHFE electrolytic aluminum - alumina futures ratio, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance [30][37][38] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [40][43][45]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced significant volatility in May, driven by Guinea's mining policy changes and shifts in supply-demand expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Guinea's Mining Policy Impact - The Guinean government has revoked numerous mining licenses, affecting various sectors including bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore [2]. - Despite the current uncertainty, there are expectations that companies may be able to bid for new mining licenses, alleviating some market concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has improved as it is believed that long-term shutdowns of mining operations are not feasible for economic reasons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's bauxite imports increased by 34.3% year-on-year from January to April, with a notable 59.62% increase in April alone, reaching a historical high [3]. - As of the end of April, China's bauxite inventory stood at 41.15 million tons, indicating a relatively ample supply [3]. - Domestic demand for aluminum oxide remains stable, although export demand has weakened [3]. Group 3: Production and Pricing Trends - The operating rate of aluminum oxide production facilities has been high due to favorable profit margins, providing strong support for demand [4]. - In April, China's aluminum oxide production was 7.323 million tons, showing a 2% month-on-month decline but a 6.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - The average cost of aluminum oxide production decreased to 2,850 yuan/ton in May, leading to a recovery in industry profits, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall price of bauxite has rebounded due to the mining rights revocation in Guinea, but high domestic inventories may limit the impact on near-term supply [5]. - Approximately 5.2 million tons of new production capacity with significant cost advantages are expected to be released in the second quarter [5]. - The aluminum oxide market may experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at 3,500 yuan/ton and support around 2,800 yuan/ton [5].