1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Ore disturbances have subsided, and the supply of alumina has turned into surplus. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory approach in the short - term and a short - selling approach at high levels in the long - term for alumina [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were temporarily stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on production. In Henan, environmental supervision restricted ore production. The rainy season in southern regions poses challenges. Imported Guinea high - grade bauxite (45/3) was stable at 75 dollars/dry ton. SMB plans to increase exports after the AXIS mine closure. Newly arrived ore was 391.3 million tons, with 332.5 million tons from Guinea and 58.8 million tons from Australia. The shipping fee from Guinea to China rose to 26 dollars/ton [11] - **Alumina**: Spot prices fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3180 - 3280 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3192.4 yuan/ton, down 109.8 yuan/ton. Imported alumina port quotes were flat. Large enterprises focused on long - term contracts. Northern market spot sales were 1.25 million tons, up 0.85 million tons, mainly in Henan at 3217 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton. Overseas supply increased, pressuring prices. The domestic full cost was 2929 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 381 yuan/ton. Domestic capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11292 million tons, operating capacity of 9265 million tons (up 200 million tons), and an 82% utilization rate [12] - **Demand**: Domestic and overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged. Domestic operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, and overseas was 2948.8 million tons, both week - on - week flat [12] - **Inventory**: As of June 5th, national alumina inventory was 312.9 million tons, down 0.4 million tons. Long - term contract execution improved, and inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants increased steadily, while port and alumina enterprise inventory decreased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE alumina registered warehouse receipts were 80443 tons, down 10215 tons. With supply turning into surplus, alumina is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold at high levels in the long - term [14] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - Australia sold 3 million tons of alumina on June 13th at 366 dollars/ton FOB for an August shipment [15] - A Guangxi alumina plant reduced production due to higher costs of imported ores. It cut one production line, reducing operating capacity from 250 million tons to 200 million tons [15] - On June 13th, 0.5 million tons of spot alumina were sold in Henan Sanmenxia at 3180 yuan/ton [15] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Include data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [16][18][20] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Include data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, SHFE electrolytic aluminum - alumina futures ratio, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance [30][37][38] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [40][43][45]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced significant volatility in May, driven by Guinea's mining policy changes and shifts in supply-demand expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Guinea's Mining Policy Impact - The Guinean government has revoked numerous mining licenses, affecting various sectors including bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore [2]. - Despite the current uncertainty, there are expectations that companies may be able to bid for new mining licenses, alleviating some market concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has improved as it is believed that long-term shutdowns of mining operations are not feasible for economic reasons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's bauxite imports increased by 34.3% year-on-year from January to April, with a notable 59.62% increase in April alone, reaching a historical high [3]. - As of the end of April, China's bauxite inventory stood at 41.15 million tons, indicating a relatively ample supply [3]. - Domestic demand for aluminum oxide remains stable, although export demand has weakened [3]. Group 3: Production and Pricing Trends - The operating rate of aluminum oxide production facilities has been high due to favorable profit margins, providing strong support for demand [4]. - In April, China's aluminum oxide production was 7.323 million tons, showing a 2% month-on-month decline but a 6.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - The average cost of aluminum oxide production decreased to 2,850 yuan/ton in May, leading to a recovery in industry profits, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall price of bauxite has rebounded due to the mining rights revocation in Guinea, but high domestic inventories may limit the impact on near-term supply [5]. - Approximately 5.2 million tons of new production capacity with significant cost advantages are expected to be released in the second quarter [5]. - The aluminum oxide market may experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at 3,500 yuan/ton and support around 2,800 yuan/ton [5].