1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 ended the session in a moderately strong position at 2,513 yuan per ton. The average caustic soda capacity utilization rate before the holiday increased by 1.8% to 83.9%. The domestic alumina operating rate continued to decline; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.54% to 79.71%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 1.79% to 415,800 tons. In May, the chlor - alkali industry had concentrated maintenance, and the shutdown capacity increased, partially alleviating the industry's supply pressure. The high - cost alumina production facilities in the downstream had both production cuts and new capacity launches, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. During the National Day, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, and the liquid caustic soda inventory faced the pressure of accumulation. There was still support from overseas markets such as Indonesia. For SH2509, pay attention to the support around 2,470 below and the pressure around 2,550 above [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,513 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15; the futures trading volume was 492,543 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 138,843; the futures open interest was 202,503 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 26,287; the net position of the top 20 futures was 115 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 44. The closing price of the January contract was 2,470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the closing price of the May contract was 2,400 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of caustic soda was - 13 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 225 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 679 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 100 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200.5; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,850 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.6 Industry News - On May 7, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and cuts in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate. From April 25th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. As of April 30th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 415,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.79% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction in production coexists with the launch of new production capacity, but the profit repair is limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand is difficult to increase. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises take holidays and stop production, and the liquid caustic soda inventory faces the pressure of accumulation. There is still support from overseas market demand such as Indonesia. For SH2509, pay attention to the support around 2460 below and the pressure around 2550 above [2] - In May, there are concentrated overhauls in the chlor - alkali industry, and the shut - down production capacity has increased, which partially alleviates the industry supply pressure. However, the high - cost equipment of downstream alumina reduces production and new production capacity is put into operation simultaneously, with limited profit repair and difficult improvement in caustic soda consumption demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2498 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19; the futures holding volume is 176,216 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 24,260; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is 159 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,628; the futures trading volume is 353,700 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 91,237 [1] - The closing price of the caustic soda contract in January is 2459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14; the closing price of the caustic soda contract in May is 2353 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 87 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] - The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 62; the basis of caustic soda is 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 43 [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] - The price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 100.5 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; in Jiangsu, it is - 100 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,480 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 2850 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] 3.6 Industry News - From April 25th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [1] - As of April 30th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.79% [1] - The domestic alumina operating rate continued to decline; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 2.54% month - on - month to 79.71%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 60.06% month - on - month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. The supply side may see an increase in capacity utilization due to the resumption of 300,000 - ton capacity of Bohua and the expanded impact of previously restarted devices. However, on the demand side, the consumption of caustic soda by alumina enterprises is expected to decline continuously, and non - aluminum downstream replenishment is ending with resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to inventory accumulation pressure on liquid caustic soda, and some enterprises may reduce prices before the festival to sell goods [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda futures is 2431 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 417,774 lots, up 94,702 lots; the futures open interest is 183,515 lots, down 19,631 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 12,487 lots, up 9,923 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2413 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2410 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 7 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of chlor - alkali plants decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. This week, the 300,000 - ton capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to increase week - on - week [3]. - Demand: The domestic alumina enterprises are reducing production or conducting planned flexible production, and the consumption of caustic soda by alumina is expected to decline continuously. The restocking of non - aluminum downstream is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. The liquid caustic soda inventory is facing the pressure of inventory accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices before the festival to sell goods [3].