| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2481 | | -21 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 70456 | -3689 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -19342 | | | 105105 | -42520 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -22 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2614 | | | 2703 | -19 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 | -19342 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | | | 890 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | | 19 | 21 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2450. The impact of chlor - alkali profit on industry operation should be monitored in the future due to continuous subsidies for liquid chlorine in Shandong [3]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the futures holding volume was 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 17,942 lots, down 6,033 lots; the futures trading volume was 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2592 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, and the May contract was 2690 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 639 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3]. c. Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Last week, some plants in Ordos, Junzheng, Zhongtai, and Zhongyan shut down, while the plant in Yidongxing restarted. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a plant in Southwest China plans to shut down, and a plant in Northwest China will restart, with little expected change in capacity utilization [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina has good profitability, and its operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber remained stable at 84.97% week - on - week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9% week - on - week. Currently, there is no planned production cut in the alumina industry, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak rigid demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic caustic soda plant is still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected production capacity to be put into operation from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. [3] - The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for resuming production, and there is still some room for an increase in the alumina operating rate. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, and demand is weak. [3] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. For futures, the daily K - line of SH2509 should pay attention to the support around 2470 and the resistance around 2700. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2613 yuan/ton, the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2656 yuan/ton and 2717 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 752433 lots, a decrease of 277186 lots compared with the previous period. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 15810 lots, a decrease of 12901 lots compared with the previous period. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous period. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of caustic soda is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu are 100 yuan/ton and - 125 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 25 yuan/ton in Jiangsu compared with the previous period. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12980 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The spot price of alumina is 3230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need for macro - policies to continue to exert force and expand high - level opening - up. [3] - Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm from July 28 - 29, and both sides will continue to promote the 90 - day extension of the suspended tariffs. [3] - From July 18 - 24, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. [3] - As of July 24, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises' factories was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The operating rate of alumina increased by 1.84% to 85.45% last week, with an average profit of 409.4 yuan/ton. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.42% to 84.97% last week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9%. [3] - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.38% to 408,400 tons last week. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 shows a volatile and slightly upward trend, closing at 2484 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen the return of previously减产 and shutdown facilities, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 2.2% to 82.6%. On the demand side, last week the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, and the average alumina profit is 300.3 yuan/ton. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. In terms of inventory, this week the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 38.39 tons, with little inventory pressure. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased. Recently, the downstream operating rate of liquid chlorine has increased, and the inverted price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been alleviated, which has repaired the chlor-alkali profit, opening up the room for the increase of the caustic soda operating rate. The non-aluminum off-season demand is weak, and the downstream mainly purchases on a rigid basis. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2420 and the pressure around 2550 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2484 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 18; the futures holding volume is 247,813 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 11,994; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is -4,279 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 8,873; the futures trading volume is 489,252 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 272,960. The closing price of the January contract is 2471 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20; the closing price of the May contract is 2532 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 19 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis is 159 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 46 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -350 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 50; in Jiangsu, it is -75 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 2.56% and a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, affected by the increase in maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, with the national average utilization rate decreasing by 2.0% to 80.5%. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in July has decreased. The low profit suppresses the expectation of supply - side improvement in the future [2]. - Demand side: Last week, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.89% to 81.56%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs [2]. - Inventory: Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period [2]. - Price: The price of liquid chlorine is deeply inverted due to the imbalance between supply and demand, which drags down chlor - alkali profits. The chlor - alkali device is in a slight loss state. The purchase price of Shandong alumina plants has been raised, driving up the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda. The SH2509 contract is slightly at a discount, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2500 yuan/ton technically [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2454 yuan/ton, and the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2438 yuan/ton and 2487 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 687,008 lots, an increase of 38,580 lots, and the futures position is 255,481 lots, an increase of 3,944 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,837 lots, an increase of 16,162 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions is 810 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2531.25 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 225 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that China's GDP scale will be about 140 trillion yuan in 2025. From June 27th to July 3rd, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.5%, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous period. As of July 3rd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 1.58% from the previous period and an increase of 2.45% year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 ended the session in a moderately strong position at 2,513 yuan per ton. The average caustic soda capacity utilization rate before the holiday increased by 1.8% to 83.9%. The domestic alumina operating rate continued to decline; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.54% to 79.71%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 1.79% to 415,800 tons. In May, the chlor - alkali industry had concentrated maintenance, and the shutdown capacity increased, partially alleviating the industry's supply pressure. The high - cost alumina production facilities in the downstream had both production cuts and new capacity launches, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. During the National Day, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, and the liquid caustic soda inventory faced the pressure of accumulation. There was still support from overseas markets such as Indonesia. For SH2509, pay attention to the support around 2,470 below and the pressure around 2,550 above [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,513 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15; the futures trading volume was 492,543 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 138,843; the futures open interest was 202,503 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 26,287; the net position of the top 20 futures was 115 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 44. The closing price of the January contract was 2,470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the closing price of the May contract was 2,400 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of caustic soda was - 13 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 225 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 679 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 100 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200.5; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,850 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.6 Industry News - On May 7, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and cuts in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate. From April 25th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. As of April 30th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 415,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.79% [3]

| | 烧碱产业日报 | | | 2025-05-06 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2498 | 19 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 176216 | 24260 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | 159 | 6628 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | 353700 | -91237 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2459 | 14 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2353 | -87 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | 159 | 6628 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | 20 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 930 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 62 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2 | 43 | | 上游情况 | 原盐: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. The supply side may see an increase in capacity utilization due to the resumption of 300,000 - ton capacity of Bohua and the expanded impact of previously restarted devices. However, on the demand side, the consumption of caustic soda by alumina enterprises is expected to decline continuously, and non - aluminum downstream replenishment is ending with resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to inventory accumulation pressure on liquid caustic soda, and some enterprises may reduce prices before the festival to sell goods [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda futures is 2431 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 417,774 lots, up 94,702 lots; the futures open interest is 183,515 lots, down 19,631 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 12,487 lots, up 9,923 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2413 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2410 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 7 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of chlor - alkali plants decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. This week, the 300,000 - ton capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to increase week - on - week [3]. - Demand: The domestic alumina enterprises are reducing production or conducting planned flexible production, and the consumption of caustic soda by alumina is expected to decline continuously. The restocking of non - aluminum downstream is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. The liquid caustic soda inventory is facing the pressure of inventory accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices before the festival to sell goods [3].