Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually return to a high level as coal mines resume production. The downstream procurement willingness remains strong, and the coal mine inventory is mostly at a medium - low level. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. Although the steel mill's profit has improved after the price adjustment of raw materials, the coking enterprises are limited by profit, and the transaction of some high - price resources is average [2]. - **Coke**: The profit of coking enterprises is meager, and the cost has increased due to the rising raw material prices. Some loss - making coking enterprises continue to limit production, leading to a tightening supply. With the rigid demand from downstream steel mills and the active purchasing of speculative traders, coking enterprises continue to reduce inventory. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase as coal mines resume production. The downstream procurement is active, and the market sentiment has improved. Some coal prices have been adjusted, and the overall market is stable [2]. - **Base Difference**: The spot price is 940, and the base difference is 96.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons from last week, including 774 tons in steel mills, 312 tons in ports, and 669.5 tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include the increase in molten iron production and limited supply growth; negative factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Coking enterprises' profits are thin, production costs have increased, and some enterprises are reducing production. The supply is tightening, while the downstream rigid demand exists, and the inventory of coking enterprises is decreasing [5]. - **Base Difference**: The spot price is 1350, and the base difference is - 74.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 933.2 tons, a decrease of 15.2 tons from last week, including 642.8 tons in steel mills, 203.1 tons in ports, and 87.3 tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include the increase in molten iron production and the rise in blast furnace operating rate; negative factors include the compression of steel mill profits and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory in independent coking enterprises is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week [25]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 27, 2025 [1] 1. Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1113.00, with a weekly increase of 8.00 and an annual decrease of 38.17%; the price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1170.00, with no weekly change and an annual decrease of 38.42%; the price of Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5 is 1060.00, with a weekly decrease of 20.00 and an annual decrease of 41.11% [2]. - **Imported Coking Coal Prices**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 188.00, with a weekly decrease of 0.50 and an annual decrease of 85.50; the price of Goonyella is 192.00, with a weekly decrease of 0.50 and an annual decrease of 81.50 [2]. - **Port Coal Prices**: The latest price of raw coal at the port is 724.00, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 14.00, and an annual decrease of 44.31% [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 873.00, with a daily increase of 14.50, a weekly increase of 28.00, and an annual decrease of 48.28%; the price of Futures Contract 09 is 808.00, with a daily increase of 17.00, a weekly increase of 11.00, and an annual decrease of 47.45%; the price of Futures Contract 01 is 848.00, with a daily increase of 15.50, a weekly increase of 27.50, and an annual decrease of 49.55% [2]. 2. Inventory Information - **Total Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 3939.89, with a weekly decrease of 105.51, a monthly decrease of 136.05, and an annual increase of 17.68% [2]. - **Sub - inventory**: Coal mine inventory is 463.09, with a weekly decrease of 36.06, a monthly decrease of 9.94, and an annual increase of 61.38%; port inventory is 303.31, with a weekly decrease of 8.71, a monthly increase of 1.75, and an annual increase of 29.34%; steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.66, with a weekly increase of 0.68, a monthly decrease of 24.09, and an annual increase of 2.70%; coking plant coking coal inventory is 795.79, with a weekly decrease of 2.28, a monthly decrease of 69.94, and an annual decrease of 13.69% [2]. 3. Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization Rate**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.35, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 2.31, and an annual increase of 0.53% [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The coking coke inventory is 87.46, with a daily increase of 0.07, a monthly increase of 0.16, and an annual increase of 0.18% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is - 137.90, with a daily decrease of 14.50; the 09 basis is - 72.90, with a daily decrease of 17.00; the 01 basis is - 112.90, with a daily decrease of 15.50; the 5 - 9 spread is 65.00, with a daily decrease of 2.50; the 9 - 1 spread is - 40.00, with a daily increase of 1.50; the 1 - 5 spread is - 25.00, with a daily increase of 1.00 [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is stable, but the market is bearish due to factors such as the slowdown in downstream replenishment demand, inventory accumulation in some mines, and a decline in online auction results. Although the daily average hot metal production remains high, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term. With the first - round decline in coke prices, coking enterprises are purchasing raw coal passively, and the price of coking coal is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [2]. - **Coke**: The cost support for coke is weakening as coking coal prices fall. Some steel mills have slowed down their coke procurement, and some coking enterprises have accumulated inventory. Given the high - level operation of coking enterprises, weak downstream demand, and reduced cost support, the coke price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Category Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Mines are producing steadily, but due to the decline in coke prices, coking enterprises are adopting a wait - and - see attitude, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. New orders from mines are few, and prices are under downward pressure [2]. - **Price**: On May 20, 2025, at 17:30, the prices of various types of coking coal from Russia and Australia in Hebei and Shandong are provided, including main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, etc. [9]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons from last week. Specifically, the port inventory is 324.8 million tons (a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week), independent coking enterprises' inventory is 819.8 million tons (a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week), and steel mills' inventory is 782.5 million tons (a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week) [2][20][23][26]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis is 261.5, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; the main contract has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [2]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Bullish factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include a slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: The cost support for coke is weakening as coking coal prices fall. Some steel mills have reached a reasonable inventory level and slowed down their procurement. Although there is no obvious inventory pressure for coking enterprises at present, some have accumulated inventory [6]. - **Price**: On May 20, 2025, at 17:30, the prices of port metallurgical coke, including quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, are provided, with most prices showing a downward trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of coke is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from last week. Specifically, the port inventory is 243.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week), independent coking enterprises' inventory is 68.8 million tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week), and steel mills' inventory is 666.4 million tons (an increase of 2 million tons from last week) [6][20][23][26]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis is 22.5, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; the main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Bullish factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [8]. Other Data - **Coking Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-20） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿正常生产，部分有所停产。随着冶金焦价格首轮下调，炼焦煤市场看跌情绪加剧， 焦企生产按需采购，保持观望态度，煤矿库存小幅累积，目前心态转弱，价格有进一步下跌预期，但空 间不大；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差255；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存782.5万吨，港口库存324.8万吨，独立焦企库存819.8万吨，总样本库存1927.1万吨， 较上周减少24.4万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：日均铁水产量高位略有回落，短期对焦煤原料的需求维持。但随着焦炭价格首轮下跌，焦企 利润进一步压缩 ...

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1240.00 | 0.00 | -60.00 | -40.00 | -39.51% Peak Downs | 206.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 | 9.90 | -56.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 820.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -10.00 | -40.15% Goonyella | 207.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 | 9.90 | -55.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1200.00 | -20.00 | -30.00 | -70.00 | -36.17% 盘面05 | 850.00 | 1.00 | -31.00 | -48.00 | -40.23% | | 安泽主焦 | 1250.00 | -20.00 | -40.00 | -70.00 | -39.02% 盘面09 | 880.0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：供应端相对保持平稳。因节前下游库存多补至合理水平，节日期间矿方以执行节前订单为 主，线下报价多维持节前水平，节中部分煤矿库存略有累积价格小幅回落，因市场参与者对后期焦煤走 势不明朗，采购相对谨慎；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差188.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存782.5万吨，港口库存324.8万吨，独立焦企库存819.8万吨，总样本库存1927.1万吨， 较上周减少24.4万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：钢厂铁水产量继续稳步回升，短期对原料的需求尚好，然近期成材价格小幅下跌，钢材成交 ...