交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：年底将至，大矿生产偏向平稳，民营矿点陆续进入放假安排，供应稍有收紧。主产地焦企 原料煤库存多已增至中高位水平，同时中间投机贸易商需求减少，市场交投氛围转弱，高价资源成交难 度加大，部分洗煤厂及贸易商有加快出货的情况。然煤矿端考虑当前场地库存较少，且焦煤市场供应逐 渐趋紧，煤矿报价暂多持稳，部分有所下调；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1180，基差12.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：偏弱震荡 【行情分析】 焦煤低开低走，尾盘翻红。供应端，蒙煤近两日通关数量高涨，位于近年 来同期高位水平，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率 为 89.33%，环比增加 0.86%。焦煤年前停产企业多发复工，国内产量有增长， 原煤日均产量达到 199.44 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库，周度环比增加 1.98 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 44.86 万吨，钢厂累库 1.04 万吨，冬储补库进 程放缓，库存下沉进度放慢，补库力度环比历年同期弱，尤其是钢厂累库节奏 强度均慢。下游铁水产量环比增加 0.04%，周度日均产量 228.1 万吨。焦炭一 轮提涨博弈中，前期焦煤补库接近尾声，供需压力进入宽松阶段，而目前尚未 见到矿端由于年前安全检查而有减产的迹象，下游对高价煤接受意愿低，终端 需求无明显起色，但刚性支撑有韧性，焦煤盘面偏弱震荡为主，但下方有支 撑。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1003 元/吨，较上个交易日-37 ...

焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/1/6 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1403.00 | -47.00 | -47.00 | -102.00 | 0.21% Peak Downs | 228.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 6.50 | 21.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 960.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -28.00 | 4.35% Goonyella | 229.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 8.50 | 18.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -4.29% 盘面05 | 1097.00 | -18.50 | -5.00 | -70.00 | -6.56% | | 安泽主焦 | 1500.00 | 0.00 | -100.00 | 0.00 | 5.63% 盘 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦炭价格经过四轮下调，焦企利润受到挤压，对高价煤的接受力度有限，市场情绪走低，后 市仍有看降预期，当前对炼焦煤的采购也相对谨慎，多以刚需采购为主期，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运 行。 1、基本面：前期因生产任务停产煤矿大面积开工，煤矿生产快速恢复，短期炼焦煤产量有望回升。目 前焦炭第四轮提降已全面落地，且仍有再降预期，原料端情绪降温明显，中间环节多下调报价加快出货， 下游焦企也多减缓采购，煤矿签单不畅，多煤种报价出现下调；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差-15； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be weak. Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, and after three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be weak. The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly due to the strong wait - and - see sentiment of intermediate speculative traders. The current rigid demand for coke is still restricted, and the market supply and demand are in a relatively loose state [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, while some high - quality main coking coal prices are relatively firm; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1140 yuan, and the basis is 16 yuan; the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1957 million tons, a decrease of 21 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main coking coal position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Some coking and steel enterprises with high raw coal inventory are controlling arrivals. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. Except for slight production restrictions in some areas, coking enterprises in other regions are operating normally, and the local production is on the rise. However, intermediate speculative traders are highly wait - and - see, and the demand of traders has not been released. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of metallurgical coke market is relatively loose; bearish [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610 yuan, and the basis is - 129 yuan; the spot price is lower than the futures price; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626 million tons, port inventory is 187 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 million tons. The total sample inventory is 858 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main coke position is net long, and long positions are increasing; bullish [7]. - Expectation: At present, the rigid demand for coke is still restricted, downstream steel mills are at a reasonable or higher level, intermediate trade demand is mostly waiting and seeing, while the coke supply continues to improve and the inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected that the short - term coke market will be weak [7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.3 Price Information - The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on December 25th (17:30), including the price, price change, and other information of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports [10]. 3.4 Inventory Information - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. 3.5 Other Information - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-28） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：原料端价格下跌，焦企利润进一步修复，生产较为积极。但终端需求仍旧疲软，焦钢企业均 有不同程度限产，对原料煤需求有所下降，影响下游观望情绪浓厚，对原料补库积极性不高，多谨慎按 需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：产地端煤矿复产节奏不及预期，加之近日仍有新停产煤矿，复产时间不明，短期内炼焦煤 供应仍稍显紧张。近期钢材价格震荡偏弱，钢厂利润收缩，压力向上游传导，原料价格上涨压力较大， 炼焦煤市场情绪明显走弱，市场成交逐渐冷清，线上流拍率攀升，成交价继续下挫；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差244；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | 5.45% Peak Downs | 214.00 | 0.00 | 7.00 | 4.30 | -2.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1000.00 | -8.00 | -40.00 | -140.00 | -5.66% Goonyella | 213.00 | 0.00 | 8.00 | 3.30 | -3.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1500.00 | -10.00 | -50.00 | 30.00 | -4.46% 盘面05 | 1167.50 | -21.00 | -16.00 | -173.00 | -11.25% | | 安泽主焦 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -20.00 | 0.00% 盘面09 | 1235.00 | -1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-27） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿端维持正常生产，因事故停产煤矿近日已复产，产量逐步恢复，炼焦煤供应紧张的局 面有所缓解。下游焦企采购炼焦煤态度偏谨慎，贸易商减少市场参与，煤矿出货压力显现，新成交不佳。 线上竞拍成交延续小幅下跌，市场心态有所转弱，矿方继续小幅下调焦煤报价；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差230.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢按需采购，钢厂亏损较大， ...

| | 載 新 | 日変化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月変化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | 3.46% Peak Downs | 214.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 9.50 | -2.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1010.00 | 10.00 | -88.00 | -125.00 | -6.48% Goonyella | 213.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 8.50 | -3.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1510.00 | 0.00 | -40.00 | 40.00 | -4.43% 盘面05 | 1183.50 | -10.00 | -59.50 | -131.50 | -11.94% | | 安泽主焦 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -40.00 | 60.00 | 5.06% 盘面09 | 1245.00 | -16. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-19） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：下游成材价格震荡运行，钢厂利润不佳减产预期增加，下游企业对高价煤资源的接受意原较 差，且焦钢企业经过近期补库，增库及降库意愿较低，以按需采购为主，对焦煤的采购偏谨慎，预计短 期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：近期煤矿开工小幅回升，但恢复空间有限，供应仍然偏紧。近日市场情绪有所降温，下游 拉运积极性稍有降低，对高价煤种接受程度下滑，矿点出货速度较前期放缓。近两日竞拍流拍情况增多， 主流大矿地销价格暂未调整，但是线上竞拍多数煤种成交出现小幅回调。因多数煤矿暂有前期订单拉运， 且考虑到下游补库，挺价意愿较强；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1380，基差221；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂 ...