【冠通期货研究报告】 利润方面，上周焦炭首轮提降落地，焦企焦化利润随之走低，本周全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利环比下降 20 元至-3 元/吨。 下游需求，重要会议期间部分高炉面临限产，上周产能利用率持续下降，铁 水产量进一步回落。Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量环比减少 6.39 万吨 至 221.2 万吨，近三年来同期最低。 上游焦煤，产地大多数煤矿已经恢复生产，炼焦煤综合库存小幅增加。 消息方面，1—2 月份，全国房地产开发投资 9612 亿元，同比下降 11.1%， 降幅比上年全年收窄 6.1 个百分点。国家金融监督管理总局:加快建立与房地产 发展新模式相适应的融资制度。国家统计局 3 月 16 日公布的数据显示，中国 1-2 月焦炭产量为 8,255 万吨，同比增加 1.1%。 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 18 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，上周钢厂因限产令需求下降，导致钢厂内焦炭库存增加 16.29 万吨至 687.55 万吨，处于历年来同期偏高水平，本周焦炭综合库存微降 1.41 万吨至 1050.86 万吨。 焦炭首轮提降全面落地，焦企亏损面扩大； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is slightly tightening as private mines are on holiday, while demand is weakening as coking plants' restocking nears completion and steel mills' profits are compressed. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term. The overall situation is neutral, with some factors being bullish and some bearish [2]. - **For Coke**: The supply of coke has increased as coking enterprises' profits have improved and production has risen. However, steel mills' demand is limited due to low profits. The coke market is in a "weak balance" state, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Supply is slightly tightening, demand is weakening, and market trading is sluggish. Coal mine quotes are mostly stable, with some downward adjustments [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1180, and the basis is 12.5, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Coking plants' restocking is almost over, demand is slowing down, and steel mills' procurement is limited. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Coking enterprises' production is stable, supply has increased, and they are actively shipping. Steel mills are controlling procurement, and inventory is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1620, and the basis is - 95, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: The decline in coking coal prices weakens the support for coke. The market is in a "weak balance" state, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: The prices of different types of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, with some price increases [9]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: The prices of different grades of port metallurgical coke from different origins are presented, with no price changes [10]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. 3.4 Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [44].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦炭价格经过四轮下调，焦企利润受到挤压，对高价煤的接受力度有限，市场情绪走低，后 市仍有看降预期，当前对炼焦煤的采购也相对谨慎，多以刚需采购为主期，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运 行。 1、基本面：前期因生产任务停产煤矿大面积开工，煤矿生产快速恢复，短期炼焦煤产量有望回升。目 前焦炭第四轮提降已全面落地，且仍有再降预期，原料端情绪降温明显，中间环节多下调报价加快出货， 下游焦企也多减缓采购，煤矿签单不畅，多煤种报价出现下调；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差-15； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be weak. Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, and after three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be weak. The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly due to the strong wait - and - see sentiment of intermediate speculative traders. The current rigid demand for coke is still restricted, and the market supply and demand are in a relatively loose state [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, while some high - quality main coking coal prices are relatively firm; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1140 yuan, and the basis is 16 yuan; the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1957 million tons, a decrease of 21 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main coking coal position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Some coking and steel enterprises with high raw coal inventory are controlling arrivals. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. Except for slight production restrictions in some areas, coking enterprises in other regions are operating normally, and the local production is on the rise. However, intermediate speculative traders are highly wait - and - see, and the demand of traders has not been released. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of metallurgical coke market is relatively loose; bearish [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610 yuan, and the basis is - 129 yuan; the spot price is lower than the futures price; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626 million tons, port inventory is 187 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 million tons. The total sample inventory is 858 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main coke position is net long, and long positions are increasing; bullish [7]. - Expectation: At present, the rigid demand for coke is still restricted, downstream steel mills are at a reasonable or higher level, intermediate trade demand is mostly waiting and seeing, while the coke supply continues to improve and the inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected that the short - term coke market will be weak [7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.3 Price Information - The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on December 25th (17:30), including the price, price change, and other information of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports [10]. 3.4 Inventory Information - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. 3.5 Other Information - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, coking coal and coke experienced a technical rebound, and the mid - and downstream sectors replenished their stocks after the price decline. On the demand side, the crude steel output will continue to decline, the real estate investment data is poor, and the downstream maintains low procurement, with insufficient overall replenishment willingness. In terms of profit, coking coal gives up some profit to coke, but there is little room for a significant improvement in coke profit. For price trends, the coking coal futures contract 2605 should focus on the support at 1060, and the coke futures contract 2605 price should focus on the support at 1680 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: Among 11 sample steel mills in Jiangsu, 6 clearly stated they would implement scrap steel winter storage plans, accounting for about 55%. In 2025, most steel mills planning for winter storage and their planned storage volumes are lower than in 2024, with only 2 mills having the same plan as last year. The China Iron and Steel Association's official said self - discipline and spontaneous production control are important for high - quality industry development [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space as the job market weakens and inflation is under control [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current pig iron output is 226.55 (-2.65) tons, and the coke inventory is moderately weak. The steel mill inventory has increased this period, and attention should be paid to the steel mill's replenishment rhythm. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2605 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 19, the coke futures contract open interest is 36,900 lots, a decrease of 9,739 lots compared to the previous period; the 5 - 1 contract monthly spread is 142.5, a decrease of 10.5 points compared to the previous period; the registered coke warehouse receipt volume is 2,070 lots, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the futures main contract screw - coke ratio is 1.95, a decrease of 0.12 points compared to the previous period [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 18, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of December 19, the coke basis is - 73.5 yuan, a decrease of 162.0 points compared to the previous period [25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Mine and Wash Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.6%, a 1.3% increase compared to the previous period. The daily average raw coal output is 1.927 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 4.789 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average clean coal output is 758,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the previous period, and the clean coal inventory is 2.728 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons compared to the previous period. The utilization rate of 314 independent coal wash plant samples is 37.7%, a 0.5% decrease compared to the previous period; the daily clean coal output is 273,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.273 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [29]. - **Coking Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 70.50%, a decrease of 1.42%; the daily average coke output is 493,400 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - class coke in Shanxi is 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - class coke is - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - class coke is 66 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Mill**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to last week and 28,600 tons compared to last year. As of December 19, 2025, the steel mill's coke inventory is 633,730 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons, and the available days of coke are 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [37]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 8.5712 million tons, a decrease of 93,800 tons compared to the previous period and a 1.33% increase compared to the same period last year. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 51,900 tons, an increase of 1,790 tons. The coke inventory of 18 ports is 2.3945 million tons, a decrease of 91,500 tons; among them, the coke inventory of 5 northern ports is 914,000 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the 10 eastern ports is 1.1415 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons, and the 3 southern ports is 339,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41][46]. - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative coke export is 622,000 tons, a 13.90% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume reaches 108 million tons, a 6.7% increase compared to the same period last year [50]. - **Housing Data**: In October 2025, the housing sales price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities shows a 0.70% month - on - month decline in second - hand residential properties. From January to October 2025, the cumulative new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, a 19.80% year - on - year decrease [53].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating The report anticipates that coke will mainly experience short - term volatile and upward movement [3]. 2) Core Viewpoint Considering that coke port inventories are at a relatively high level, independent coking enterprises' inventories continue to accumulate, and steel mills' coke inventories have reached a medium level; steel mill开工率 declines seasonally and profits are under continuous pressure, leading to a slightly loose supply - demand situation for coke. However, the winter storage and replenishment needs of coking plants and steel mills are gradually emerging, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere. Overall, coke is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a.行情分析 - Coke Production: As of December 12, for all independent coking enterprises, the capacity utilization rate was 73.16% with a daily output of 63.98 tons. For 247 domestic steel mills, the daily coke output was 46.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.95% [1]. - Coke Inventory: Steel mills' coke inventory increased by 10 tons to 635.28 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory increased by 10.88 tons to 87.32 tons (reaching a five - month high), port inventory was 181.2 tons (a year - on - year increase of 27%), and the comprehensive coke inventory was 903.8 tons (an increase of 20.8 tons) [1]. - Profit: The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 44 yuan/ton. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei, the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke was 61 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 89 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Demand: As the seasonal off - season deepens, the supply and demand in the steel market both decrease. The profitability of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 35.93%. The blast furnace operating rate and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.16% to 85.92%, and the daily hot metal output decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons compared with last week (3.27 tons less than last year) [1]. b. Upstream Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic coal mine production has slightly shrunk, and overall supply remains at a relatively low level. However, due to the high - level import coal clearance volume, the total coking coal supply is increasing marginally. Although there is some restocking behavior in the market recently, downstream procurement remains cautious, and coal mine inventories continue to accumulate, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, attention should be paid to the release of downstream restocking and speculative demand [2]. c.期现行情 - Futures Market: The 05 coke contract opened at 1661, rose 0.48% during the day, closed at 1670, and increased its position by 514 lots [3]. - Spot Market: The spot market for coke at ports remained stable, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1430 [4]. - News: The Indonesian government plans to impose a 1% - 5% tariff on coal exports starting from 2026. The Yimin Coal Mine in Ejin Horo Banner was ordered to suspend production for rectification for two days [4].

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 临汾出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 日照港准一平仓 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/16 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-28） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：原料端价格下跌，焦企利润进一步修复，生产较为积极。但终端需求仍旧疲软，焦钢企业均 有不同程度限产，对原料煤需求有所下降，影响下游观望情绪浓厚，对原料补库积极性不高，多谨慎按 需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：产地端煤矿复产节奏不及预期，加之近日仍有新停产煤矿，复产时间不明，短期内炼焦煤 供应仍稍显紧张。近期钢材价格震荡偏弱，钢厂利润收缩，压力向上游传导，原料价格上涨压力较大， 炼焦煤市场情绪明显走弱，市场成交逐渐冷清，线上流拍率攀升，成交价继续下挫；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差244；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-27） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿端维持正常生产，因事故停产煤矿近日已复产，产量逐步恢复，炼焦煤供应紧张的局 面有所缓解。下游焦企采购炼焦煤态度偏谨慎，贸易商减少市场参与，煤矿出货压力显现，新成交不佳。 线上竞拍成交延续小幅下跌，市场心态有所转弱，矿方继续小幅下调焦煤报价；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差230.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢按需采购，钢厂亏损较大， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-19） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：下游成材价格震荡运行，钢厂利润不佳减产预期增加，下游企业对高价煤资源的接受意原较 差，且焦钢企业经过近期补库，增库及降库意愿较低，以按需采购为主，对焦煤的采购偏谨慎，预计短 期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：近期煤矿开工小幅回升，但恢复空间有限，供应仍然偏紧。近日市场情绪有所降温，下游 拉运积极性稍有降低，对高价煤种接受程度下滑，矿点出货速度较前期放缓。近两日竞拍流拍情况增多， 主流大矿地销价格暂未调整，但是线上竞拍多数煤种成交出现小幅回调。因多数煤矿暂有前期订单拉运， 且考虑到下游补库，挺价意愿较强；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1380，基差221；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂 ...