Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [4]. - From sow and piglet data, hog supplies in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 will be abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4]. - Demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for hog prices, making it difficult to drive a significant price increase [4]. - The current increasing hog slaughter weight indicates that the farming sector is still accumulating inventory, which is negative for future prices. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4]. - Although there may be new lows in the long - term for spot prices, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight reduction drivers, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 29, the number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 705 lots [2]. - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games, while far - month contracts are weakly operating due to the expected increase in future hog supplies [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 421 lots today, with a position of about 72,900 lots. The highest price was 14,130 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,910 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,930 yuan/ton [2]. - The national average hog slaughter price on April 29 was 14.72 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg (- 0.07%) from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.74 yuan/kg (down 0.08 yuan/kg, - 0.54%) and 14.35 yuan/kg (unchanged) respectively [6]. - Among futures contracts, the prices of 01, 03, 07, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, while the 05 contract increased. The price changes were - 100 yuan/ton (- 0.72%), - 75 yuan/ton (- 0.57%), - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.26%), - 200 yuan/ton (- 1.42%), - 105 yuan/ton (- 0.77%), and + 25 yuan/ton (+ 0.18%) respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 120 yuan/ton (17.39%) to 810 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, hog supplies from March to December are expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, hog slaughter volumes will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3]. - Short - side logic: The farming sector has not yet reduced hog weights, which is negative for future prices; future hog supplies are expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, so demand support for hog prices is limited [3]. - Long - side logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the firm spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side believes; although future hog supplies will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog farming costs [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog price may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - The reasons include sufficient hog supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation by the farming end, and potential price drops if concentrated weight reduction occurs [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On April 28, the registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 705 lots [2] - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectations of limited subsequent slaughter increase, the consumption peak season in the second half of the year, and potential increases in far - month farming costs [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1071 lots in positions today, with a position of about 73,400 lots, a maximum price of 14,230 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,100 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,130 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off - season, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3] - Short - side logic: The farming end has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; Q2 and Q3 are not the consumption peak seasons, and demand support for hog prices is limited. Long - side logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 will gradually enter the hog consumption peak season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog farming costs [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows. The core logic is that hog supply is abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, the current hog slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the farming end. If there is concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows. However, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction drive in the market, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On April 28, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.34% from April 25. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.34% from April 25. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 14.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg or 1.17% from April 25 [6] - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with April 25, with the 05 contract having the largest decline of 0.99%, and the 09 contract having a decline of 0.14%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 120 yuan/ton or 14.81% from April 25 [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price differences between the 05 - 07 and 05 - 09 contracts, etc., but specific numerical trends are not detailed in the text [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, hog prices may still reach new lows [4] - The basis for this view is that the hog supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, the current hog出栏体重 is increasing, and there is a risk of concentrated weight reduction in the future [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On April 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 290 lots [2] - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectations of limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the consumption peak season in the second half of the year, and the possible increase in far - month breeding costs [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,124 lots today, with an open interest of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,440 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,440 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase month by month, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase overall in a fluctuating manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3] - The short - side logic includes: the breeding side has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not yet the consumption peak season, and demand support for hog prices is limited. The long - side logic includes: the slaughter enterprises' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the hog consumption peak season; the price increase of corn and soybean meal may raise the hog breeding cost [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may still be new lows [4] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices; the demand support for hog prices in the second and third quarters is weak; the current hog出栏体重 is still increasing, indicating that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may reach new lows. Although it is considered that the spot price may still reach new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the weak short - term weight - reduction drive in the market, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On April 17, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 0.07% increase from the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 0.13% increase. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.76 yuan/kg [6] - Among the futures contracts, the 01 - contract price increased by 0.5% to 14,085 yuan/ton, the 03 - contract price increased by 0.56% to 13,370 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price increased by 1.07% to 13,690 yuan/ton, the 07 - contract price increased by 0.29% to 13,630 yuan/ton, the 09 - contract price increased by 0.77% to 14,435 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract price increased by 0.72% to 14,020 yuan/ton [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan was 475 yuan/ton, a 15.93% decrease from the previous day [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of multiple indicators, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 05 - 07 contracts, and the price difference between the 05 - 09 contracts [14]