交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11540元/吨，2601合约基差190元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至9月30日，生猪存栏量4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs will be abundant by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent [4]. - If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and investors can consider reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On October 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 90 lots [2]. - There is currently no upward driving force for short - term spot prices, and attention should be paid to when the spot market shows oversold signals [2]. - On October 14, the LH2511 contract of live pigs reduced its position by 8,606 lots, with a position of approximately 48,700 lots. The highest price was 11,470 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,450 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. According to piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will increase oscillatingly. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes: the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; the demand from October to November is not strong enough to support pig prices. The long - side logic includes: the weight reduction by farmers in the early stage is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that without considering early or delayed slaughter by farmers, the slaughter volume of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and investors can consider reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On October 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 10.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.46% compared to the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.44%. The slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.47 yuan/kg [6]. - In terms of futures prices, all contracts showed an upward trend on October 14, with the 11 - contract increasing by 2.92% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton or 326.09% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents historical data trends of multiple indicators such as the national live pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing price, main contract basis in Henan, 11 - 01 contract price difference, and 01 - 03 contract price difference [7][9][10][12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the terminal demand for live pigs increases at the beginning of the month, and the spot price of live pigs rebounds with fluctuations, but the supply pressure in September remains high, and the overall situation is still weak. For futures, the 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the supply of live pigs increases slightly, with a possible improvement in the supply - demand margin. However, the current spot pressure is still large, and the trend is mainly weak [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat and then oscillated downward, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 13,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,355 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,457 lots to 185,984 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 13.90 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side Situation**: According to sample data, in September, sample breeding enterprises plan to sell 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual output in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The output may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high. There is still pressure on output, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs is declining. In the long - term, the output of live pigs may still increase slightly [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The price difference between fat and lean pigs has slightly widened, and the cost of fattening is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. At the beginning of September, colleges and universities in various regions started school one after another. The centralized procurement by school canteens at the beginning of the month boosted the market, and the weather in some regions continued to cool down, which may increase the terminal consumption of residents. The orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, the slaughter progress was relatively fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. On September 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 150,800 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads compared with the previous day and an increase of 65,000 heads compared with a week ago [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of August 21st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 78 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 57.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 5 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **15 - kg Piglet Price**: In the week of August 21st, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head compared with the previous week [17]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads or 2.54% compared with the previous week; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads or 1.29% compared with the previous week [17]. - **Planned Output of Sample Enterprises**: In August, the planned output of sample enterprises was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July, with a significant increase in output [17]. - **Average Weight of Slaughtered Pigs**: As of the week of August 21st, the average weight of slaughtered pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg or 0.13% compared with the previous week [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: August 06, 2025 - Industry: Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In August, the supply of the pig industry is expected to increase as farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs is high at the beginning of the month, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens remains high. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, so the supply - demand relationship will remain relatively loose, and pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the short - term, the nearby futures contract 2509 is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly, and contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak demand season, so their prices may show a volatile upward trend. Policies such as the anti - involution initiative and the high - quality development of the pig industry are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On August 5, the main pig futures contract 2509 opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated lower, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,980 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 863 lots to 173,912 lots. The average price of external ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the demand side, the utilization rate of pens is high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and terminal demand is weak due to hot weather. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on August 5 was 136,000 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day and 1,200 heads less than a week ago. On the supply side, the number of pigs for sale in August may increase month - on - month, and the pressure on sales remains. Overall, the supply - demand relationship is loose, and pig prices may be under pressure. In the futures market, the short - term nearby contract 2509 follows the spot price decline, while the medium - to - long - term far - month contracts may show a volatile upward trend [9]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 31, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of the week of July 31, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, 15 yuan/head lower than the previous week. - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31 was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). - As of the week of July 31, the average weight of slaughtered pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 kg (0.39%) [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming industry has maintained profitability in the first half of the year due to declining breeding costs and some farmers successfully locking in profits through stable operating models [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the average price of live pigs was 15.50 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, primarily due to a significant increase in the number of pigs being sold compared to the previous year [1][2] - The slaughter volume of large-scale pig slaughtering enterprises from January to May was 15,349.67 million heads, with May's slaughter volume at 3,215.67 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1] Group 2 - The recent rebound in pig prices is driven by multiple favorable factors, including the clearance of large pigs and the conversion of some fresh pork to frozen products, which alleviated supply pressure [2] - The average prices of feed and raw materials for pig farming, such as corn and soybean meal, decreased by 9.2%, 8.8%, and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to sustained low breeding costs [2] - The overall pig farming industry has been in a downward price cycle for nearly two years, but some local governments have actively supported farmers, leading to stable profits for certain farmers [2] Group 3 - The outlook for pig prices suggests a potential rebound in the third quarter, although the extent of this rebound may be limited due to continued ample production capacity [3] - The number of newborn piglets has been increasing since the second half of last year, indicating that pig supply will remain abundant into the second half of 2025 [3] - Seasonal recovery in pork consumption is expected as the market stabilizes, with government policies encouraging farmers to control the weight of pigs at the time of sale [3]

Market Overview - On June 3, the main pig futures contract 2509 opened slightly lower, peaked at 13645 yuan/ton, and closed at 1510 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day [1] - The total open interest increased by 3497 contracts to 162323 contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The national average price for external three yuan pigs on June 3 was 14.36 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - Demand is weakening post-Duanwu Festival, with slaughterhouse orders decreasing and operating rates declining [1] - On June 3, the slaughter volume from sample enterprises was 144,300 heads, down 0.05 thousand heads from the previous day and down 0.7 thousand heads from a week ago [1] - Supply is expected to increase in June, with normal outflows from breeding farms and high weights maintained [1] Profitability and Costs - As of May 23, the average market selling price for 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan from the previous week [1] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs was 138 yuan/head, down 31 yuan week-on-week; for purchased piglets, the profit was 93 yuan/head, down 25 yuan week-on-week [1] - The average slaughter weight as of May 23 was 129.38 kg, down 0.33 kg week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.91% [1] - The expected cost for self-breeding pigs was 13.09 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week; for purchased piglets, the cost was 15.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On June 3, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a decline. The highest price was 13,645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,485 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1510 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3497 lots to 162,323 lots [6] Spot - On June 3, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.36 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] Demand - Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, and the utilization rate of pigsties is relatively high. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish the inventory has decreased, and most are waiting and watching. As the temperature rises, terminal demand weakens. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have significantly decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have declined. On June 3, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,300 heads, 500 heads less than the previous day and 7000 heads less than a week ago [6] Supply - According to Yongyi sample data, the slaughter volume of the breeding side in June may continue to increase month-on-month. The breeding side slaughters normally, and with the successive slaughter of previously secondarily fattened pigs, the slaughter weight remains high [6] Overall Situation - Overall, supply tends to increase, demand weakens again after the festival, and the supply and demand remain loose. The spot price of live pigs is mainly weak. Pay continued attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening in the later stage. Currently, all futures contracts are at a discount to the spot. Affected by the off-season of demand, loose supply and demand, and the expected slaughter of secondarily fattened pigs, they are mainly weak [6] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi Information data, in the week of May 23, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from the previous week [9] - As of May 23, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened with purchased piglets was 93 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/head [9] Group 4: Data Overview Average Slaughter Weight - In the week of May 23, the national average slaughter weight was 129.38 kg, down 0.33 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [18] Slaughter Volume - In the week of May 23, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.5964 million heads, 500 less than the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.03%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 144,347 heads, 3194 less than the previous week, with an average daily decline of 2.16% [18] Breeding Cost - As of May 23, the expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 13.09 yuan/kg, remaining the same week - on - week. The cost of fattening pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 15.06 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side is facing a double - negative situation of "theoretical supply pressure increase" and "high live - animal inventory". The demand side is expected to weaken seasonally with only limited increase around the Dragon Boat Festival. Overall, the spot price is likely to adjust weakly. For trading, a short - selling strategy is recommended for near - term contracts, while long - buying opportunities on dips can be considered for far - term contracts. The reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts should be continuously monitored [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - The live - animal inventory is shifting from "accumulation" to "reduction", but the overall average weight of slaughtered pigs remains high, and there is no significant increase in slaughter volume, indicating slow inventory reduction. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, suggesting a significant increase in pig slaughter from April to September [21]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis - As the weather gets hotter, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. Although there may be some increase in demand around the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase is limited based on the current market situation [2][21]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report mentions figures related to self - breeding and self - raising profit per head and profit per head from purchasing piglets, but no specific analysis of cost - profit is provided in the given text. 4. Market Outlook - The analysis of supply and demand is consistent with the previous parts. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts. Continue to focus on the reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts, and investors should pay close attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side, demand changes, policy orientation, and epidemics [2][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 are abundant, demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, current hog slaughter weight is increasing, and although there is uncertainty about new lows in the medium - to - long - term, the short - term market has no strong motivation to reduce weight and the futures price is in a reasonable range [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 15, the number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 701 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the possible increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 5,221 lots today, with a position of about 77,600 lots, a maximum price of 14,015 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,735 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited range. From the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Short - side logic: The breeding side has not reduced weight, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and demand support in Q2 and Q3 is limited. Long - side logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited, and rising corn and soybean meal prices may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, there may be new lows [4] - The core logic includes abundant hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, and although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long - term, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 15, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.41% from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Futures prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 - contract dropping by 240 yuan/ton or 1.71% [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 140 yuan/ton or 13.46% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts [14]