Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of coking coal on the coal chemical industry has diminished, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of methanol itself. The overseas methanol operation remains at a high level, and there is still significant pressure on future arrivals. The maintenance plan for MTO units has not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of future implementation. It is still a period of slight inventory accumulation, and the port basis will maintain a weak consolidation. In the inland area, coal - based methanol has undergone concentrated maintenance but will gradually resume in early August. Among traditional downstream industries, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, while the operation of MTBE and acetic acid still shows some resilience, and the inland demand remains strong. The inventory of inland methanol factories has decreased again, and the inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA01 - 05, MA05 - 09, MA09 - 01). The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are provided for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][31]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated plants). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [34][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [38][44][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period price difference is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Do narrowing spreads when the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such methanol plants in China accounting for 8%. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. Some MTO plants' maintenance plans have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production cuts in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland area, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low but expected to recover gradually by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, and inland plant inventories have decreased again, maintaining a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][20][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [33][34][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][53][59] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 450 yuan/ton (+10). Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 615 yuan/ton (-13). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1990 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 179 yuan/ton (-39); Inner Mongolia southern line is 1990 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2300 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 89 yuan/ton (-34). Henan is 2160 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton (-56). Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 39 yuan/ton (-46). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 352340 tons (-4560), and northwest factory inventory is 218000 tons (-10000). Inland factory pending orders are 243119 tons (+21879), and northwest factory pending orders are 113600 tons (+13600) [1] Ports - Taicang methanol is 2398 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (-33). CFR China is 273 US dollars/ton (-2), and the East China import spread is - 18 yuan/ton (+11). Changzhou methanol is 2395 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2400 yuan/ton (+15), with a basis of - 11 yuan/ton (-31). Longzhong's total port inventory is 790200 tons (+71300), Jiangsu port inventory is 454000 tons (+59000), Zhejiang port inventory is 180000 tons (+4500), and Guangdong port inventory is 106000 tons (-6000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (+0.27%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 142 yuan/ton (+6), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 152 yuan/ton (+1), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 198 yuan/ton (-1), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 178 yuan/ton (+2), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 2 yuan/ton (+13) [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3]