1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The disk oscillated and declined, with the basis at -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31), and 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihood in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low, and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market - On March 31, the PG2605 contract closed at 6339 (-267) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 139 (-31) and 0 warehouse receipts (-1300). The night session closed at 6501 (+162), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 166 (+27). [1] - Constrained by the successive decline of the related oil product market, the refinery's willingness to support the market is not strong. Shandong civil gas was at 6370 (-81), Shandong ether - post at 6510 (-40), Shandong propane at 6807 (-25), and Longkou Port propane at 7500 (+0). [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The basis was -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread was 193 (+31), and there were 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). Shandong civil gas was at 6100 (+110), East China civil gas at 7065 (+876), and South China civil gas at 7205 (+905). [1] - The FEI month spread was 104 US dollars (-8), the oil - gas ratio oscillated, and the internal and external PG - FEI c2 reached 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -122 (-46). [1] - Propane import profit increased significantly. The spot profit of Chinese PDH - made propylene weakened to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China oscillated significantly. [1] - The port inventory ratio was 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume was 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization was 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release was 51.78 tons (-3.36%). [1] - The PDH operating rate was 63.6% (-2.03pct); the utilization rate of alkylated oil production capacity was 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate was 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order was 0 tons (-4.5). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The disk fluctuates and declines, with the latest basis at -588 (+457) and the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31) [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, US terminal operations are at full capacity, April inventory is still supported, but subsequent supply shortages may become more prominent [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Quotes - Shandong civil LPG is 6430 (+0), Shandong ether - after LPG is 6550 (+50), Shandong propane is 6832 (+276), and Longkou Port propane is 7500 (+0) [1] - Platts assesses the CP South China CIF CFR discount at 358.5 (+20) at 6:30 pm on Monday, and the CFR price is 1013.5 (+35) [1] - At 11 pm on Monday, FEI is reported at 925.5 (+29.5), the 4 - 5 month spread is 105 (+3), and the 5 - 6 month spread is 77 (+9) [1] - PG - FEI05 internal - external spread is 136.8 (-37.9), and FEI - MOPJ is - 124 (-11) [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The basis is -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread is 193 (+31), and the number of warehouse receipts is 1300 (-1800) [1] - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after LPG at 6080 (+130) [1] - Shandong civil LPG is 6100 (+110), East China civil LPG is 7065 (+876), and South China civil LPG is 7205 (+905) [1] - The FEI month spread is 104 US dollars (-8), and the oil - gas ratio fluctuates [1] - The internal - external PG - FEI c2 is 156 (+13) [1] - The South China CP propane CIF discount is 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrows to -122 (-46) [1] - Propane import profit rises significantly [1] - The spot profit of China's PDH - made propylene weakens to 734 (-611), and the paper futures of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly [1] - The port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity is 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%) [1] - PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct), alkylated oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct), MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct), and MTBE export orders are 0 tons (-4.5) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating market. The downstream is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", but the spinning profit is poor. Domestically, cotton has entered the de - stocking cycle, and the reduction of the cotton planting area in the new year provides medium - to - long - term support for cotton prices. However, the frequent fluctuations of crude oil lead to sharp price changes in chemical fibers, causing cotton to show an oscillating effect. The potential visit of Trump to China in May is expected to provide some support for prices [1]. - Sugar is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend. As of March 24, 46 sugar mills in Guangxi are still in operation, with an increase of 45 compared to the same period last year. The daily cane - crushing capacity of the mills that have completed the crushing is 256,500 tons per day, a decrease of 332,500 tons per day compared to the same period last year. The narrowing import profit indicates that the downside space for sugar is gradually shrinking [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - The downstream is in the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak season, but the spinning profit is poor [1]. - Domestically, cotton has entered the de - stocking cycle, and the reduction of the new - year cotton planting area provides medium - to - long - term support for cotton prices [1]. - Frequent fluctuations in crude oil lead to sharp price changes in chemical fibers, causing cotton to maintain an oscillating effect [1]. - The potential visit of Trump to China in May is expected to provide some support for prices, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [1]. Sugar - As of March 24, 46 sugar mills in Guangxi are still in operation, an increase of 45 compared to the same period last year. Among the operating mills, nearly one - third are large - scale mills with a daily capacity of over 10,000 tons [1]. - The daily cane - crushing capacity of the mills that have completed the crushing is 256,500 tons per day, a decrease of 332,500 tons per day compared to the same period last year [1]. - In terms of regional distribution, 10 sugar mills in Chongzuo have completed the crushing, with a relatively fast progress; 6 sugar mills in Laibin have completed the crushing, with an accelerating progress; no sugar mills in Liuzhou and Guigang have completed the crushing, and the earliest estimated completion time is the end of March [1]. - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,365 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost outside the quota is 5,556 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared to the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,275 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota is 84 yuan/ton [2]. - The rise of the outer - market raw sugar narrows the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the raw sugar is gradually emerging from the trough due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the narrowing import profit, the downside space for sugar is gradually shrinking, and it is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 increased from 759.0 to 762.5, a rise of 3.5 [2] - DCE05 increased from 815.5 to 819.0, a rise of 3.5 [2] - DCE09 increased from 781.0 to 786.5, a rise of 5.5 [2] Spread between Contracts - I01 - I05 remained unchanged at -56.5 [2] - I05 - I09 decreased from 34.5 to 32.5, a drop of 2.0 [2] - I09 - I01 increased from 22.0 to 24.0, a rise of 2.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) increased from 787 to 794, a rise of 7 [2] - Newman powder increased from 732 to 739, a rise of 7 [2] - Mac powder increased from 778 to 780, a rise of 2 [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder remained unchanged at 157 [2] - The spread between Newman powder and Jimbour increased from -11 to -9, a rise of 2 [2] - The spread between Carajás fines and Jimbour increased from 205 to 207, a rise of 2 [2] Import Profits - The import profit of Carajás fines increased from 13 to 15, a rise of 2 [2] - The import profit of Newman powder increased from -23 to -22, a rise of 1 [2] - The import profit of PB powder decreased from -20 to -21, a drop of 1 [2] Platts Index - Platts iron ore 61% price increased from 108.4 to 109.6, a rise of 1.1 [2] - Platts iron ore 65% price increased from 126.1 to 127.2, a rise of 1.2 [2] - Platts iron ore 58% price increased from 98.1 to 99.1, a rise of 1.0 [2] USD Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets - SGX main - DCE01 increased from 13.2 to 14.0, a rise of 0.8 [2] - SGX main - DCE05 increased from 6.7 to 6.8, a rise of 0.1 [2] - SGX main - DCE09 increased from 10.7 to 11.1, a rise of 0.4 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures - Closing price of the BR main contract on March 18 was 15,260, down 270 from the previous day and 355 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on March 18 was 66,374, down 42 from the previous day and up 40,054 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on March 18 was 272,822, up 8,875 from the previous day and down 1,825 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on March 18 was 47,650, up 490 from the previous day and 1,330 from the previous week [4] - The virtual - real ratio on March 18 was 6.96, with no daily change and an increase of 4 from the previous week [4] - The butadiene rubber basis on March 18 was 40, up 70 from the previous day [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis on March 18 was 440, up 170 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week [4] - The 05 - 06 spread on March 18 was 250, with no daily change and a decrease of 35 from the previous week [4] - The 06 - 07 spread on March 18 was - 20, down 20 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4] - The RU - BR spread on March 18 was 1,140, down 130 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week [4] - The NR - BR spread on March 18 was - 2,155, with a change not clearly stated from the previous day and a decrease of 260 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on March 18 was 15,300, down 200 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - Transfar market price on March 18 was 15,300, down 200 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on March 18 was 15,800, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on March 18 was 2,100, with no daily change and an increase of 350 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on March 18 was 2,275, with no daily change and an increase of 350 from the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on March 18 was - 1,996, down 149 from the previous day and 108 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on March 18 was - 1,503, down 144 from the previous day and 2,410 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on March 18 was 1,694, up 123 from the previous day and 2,137 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) Spot - Shandong market price on March 18 was 14,800, down 50 from the previous day and up 400 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on March 18 was 15,250, with no daily change [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on March 18 was 15,200, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on March 18 was 2,050, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data was not available [4] - Carbon four extraction profit on March 17 was 4,814, and data on March 18 was not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on March 18 was 4,840, down 210 from the previous day and up 770 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on March 18 was - 821, up 54 from the previous day and down 1,933 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on March 18 was 191, up 1,678 from the previous day and 5,356 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on March 18 was - 388, with no daily change and an increase of 38 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit data was partially not available [4] - SBS production profit on March 18 was - 1,025, with no daily change and a decrease of 155 from the previous week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after Carbon Four | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/06 | 5,145 | 4,981 | 4,940 | 770 | 791 | 570 | 5,150 | 7,800 | - 908 | - 220 | | 2026/03/09 | 5,920 | 5,973 | 7,310 | 860 | 954 | 593 | 7,350 | 10,500 | - 819 | 304 | | 2026/03/10 | 6,140 | 6,378 | 6,420 | 860 | 761 | 580 | 6,860 | 9,500 | - 562 | 868 | | 2026/03/11 | 6,120 | 6,378 | 5,030 | 865 | 791 | 575 | 6,000 | 9,000 | - 626 | - 217 | | 2026/03/12 | 6,110 | 6,264 | 5,230 | 935 | - | 578 | 5,420 | 8,500 | - 1,172 | - 211 | | Day - to - Day Change | - 10 | - 114 | 200 | 70 | - | 3 | - 580 | - 500 | - 546 | 6 | [1] Day - to - Day Viewpoint - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market has shown significant fluctuations. The LPG futures price has increased, while the spot price has largely given back the gains of the previous two days. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the impact of the supply interruption in the Middle East may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, the import profit has dropped to a deep negative value, and the 4 - 5 month spread may remain strong in the short term under the sign of rising geopolitical tensions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - **Prices**: From March 5 - 11, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, showed various changes. For example, on March 5, South China LPG was 5160, and on March 11, it was 6120. Propane CIF daily prices also fluctuated. The paper - import profit and the main basis also changed daily [1] - **Futures**: On March 11, the PG2604 contract closed at 5447 (+175) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 159 (+7). The number of warehouse receipts was 3108 (-2268). At night, it closed at 5624 (+290), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 174 (+15) [1] - **Spot**: The spot price significantly gave back the gains of the previous two days. Shandong's civil LPG mainstream price was 5005 - 7000, down 500 - 1400, and the transaction was active after the price drop. The propane DES price at Longkou Port was 923 (-5). The East China market maintained stable prices, with the mainstream transaction price at 6100 - 6700 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Data - **Market Trends**: The futures price rose significantly last week, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then increased, with the latest at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4652 (-2027) [1] - **Related Indicators**: The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1] - **Profit and Inventory**: The PDH spot profit increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then increased. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5pct). The production and sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3pct), the external supply was 56.2 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7pct) [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week after the holiday, downstream demand recovered slowly, and supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental pattern was weak. The impact of the supply interruption in the Middle East may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short term under the sign of rising geopolitical tensions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through [9][10] - For trading strategies, for the single - side, maintain the bottom - oscillating view; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,301, up 34 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 51,265 (an increase of 25,547) and an open interest of 137,901 (an increase of 9,758); SR01 closed at 5,423, up 28 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 1,484 (a decrease of 15) and an open interest of 6,647 (an increase of 376); SR05 closed at 5,285, up 37 (0.71%), with a trading volume of 341,075 (an increase of 166,563) and an open interest of 462,071 (an increase of 15,849) [3] - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou was 5,380 (up 10), in Kunming was 5,190 (up 20), in Wuhan was 5,630 (unchanged), in Nanning was 5,370 (up 20), in Bayuquan was 5,435 (unchanged), in Rizhao was 5,510 (up 35), and in Xi'an was 5,770 (up 10). The corresponding basis was 95, - 95, 345, 85, 150, 225, and 485 respectively [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 138 (up 9), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 16 (down 3), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 122 (up 6) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.25, and a freight of 38.00, the in - quota price was 3,846, the out - of - quota price was 4,880, the spread with Liuzhou was 500, the spread with Rizhao was 630, and the spread with the futures market was 543. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 3,798, the out - of - quota price was 4,817, the spread with Liuzhou was 563, the spread with Rizhao was 693, and the spread with the futures market was 606 [3] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: On February 25, India's Food Ministry announced a domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons for March 2026, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The domestic market is expected to remain bullish. Since mid - February, sugar mills in Maharashtra have begun to end their crushing operations, which will help reduce the market's oversupply. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data for the 2025/26 sugar - making season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) is expected to be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion is expected to be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. As of the end of February, Nanning and Qinzhou in Guangxi are expected to have one sugar mill each stop crushing, but due to rainfall, the plan may change, and the first wave of stops is expected to be concentrated in early March. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be around 7 million tons, but the production estimate is still unclear due to the delayed progress [5][6] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugarcane crushing is almost over, and its sugar exports have decreased, so the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. Although India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, the recent increase has significantly narrowed, and the final output may be slightly higher than expected but with a small increase. After the US Supreme Court overturned Trump's global tariffs during the holiday, Brazil may export more sugar and ethanol to the US, and the US sugar price has risen after hitting the bottom. In the domestic market, the domestic white sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low futures price and the sharp rise in international sugar prices during the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [9] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through. Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Options: Sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Third Part: Relevant Diagrams - The report provides 10 diagrams, including those showing monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of white sugar futures [14][16][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 04 contract is priced based on the external market, with a reasonable valuation, and the 4 - 5 month spread valuation is neutral. The external market remains tight in the short - term but is expected to weaken in the second quarter, and geopolitics is a key factor that requires continuous attention. After the holiday, downstream replenishment may occur, chemical demand is supported, and there is room for a rebound in spot prices [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Quotes - On February 25th, the main contract PG2604 closed up at 4510 (-78) during the day session, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 66 (-13). At night, it rose significantly due to Saudi news, with the 04 contract closing up at 4588 (+64) and a 4 - 5 month spread of 84 (+18) [4] - In the domestic spot market, the cheapest deliverable is still Shanghai civil gas at 4150. In Shandong, civil gas prices declined slightly, with refinery inventories increasing slightly, expected to stabilize or face pressure. Shandong ether - after carbon four remained stable overall, with stable downstream profits, and a mix of positive and negative news in the oil price and information. In East China, prices remained stable overall, with mainstream transactions between 4150 - 4700, demand slowly increasing, and refineries less willing to adjust prices at the end of the month, waiting for CP price guidance [4] 2. Weekly Views - In the week before the holiday, the market trended upward, and the month - spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis was -102 (-31), the 3 - 4 month spread was -164 (+139), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 81 (-10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 41.50 (+0) [4] - During the holiday, the external market price increased with the oil price due to geopolitical tensions. The PDI profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term start - up remained resilient. The domestic basis is still weak [4]