研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 白糖日报 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | 5,301 | 34 | 0.65% | 51,265 | 25547 | 137,901 | 9758 | | SR01 | 5,423 | 28 | 0.52% | 1,484 | -15 | 6,647 | 376 | | SR05 | 5,285 | 37 | 0.71% | 341,075 | 166563 | 462,071 | 15849 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | 5380 | 5190 | 5630 ...

LPG = FA 台H 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/26 -P G 丙烷CIF日| CP预测合 山东烷基 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 学东液化 丙烷CFR华南 k 同价 化油 2026/02/11 4475 4430 -282 4750 ୧35 281 4450 7250 238 313 2026/02/12 4750 4440 . 635 4467 571 534 4460 7280 -274 296 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 529 7280 551 4460 -171 315 2026/02/24 4424 4500 540 -289 4760 640 283 4380 7300 -58 4424 4500 641 4380 -272 2026/02/25 4770 600 551 7300 14 17 日度变化 0 ( 1 11 0 張思 0 17 72 10 0 2月25日，主力合约PG2604日盘收涨于4510（-78），4-5月差66（-13）。夜盘受沙特消息而大幅上行，04合约夜盘收涨于458 8（+64）, 4- ...

FFF START FREE 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 す77 煤期 河北折盘 西北折盘 CFR东南 量商行营 江苏现货 CFR中国 华南现货 进口利润| 主力基差 型商标准面 E lif E E 2210 2398 2315 2443 323 2205 263 -3 2220 2215 2395 2315 263 323 -7 2438 2213 2390 2213 2315 2438 263 323 -15 2210 2205 2390 2315 2438 259 321 -0 2243 2255 2400 2315 2468 图记 33 50 10 30 O 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看涨 期权较合适。 MA现货价格走势 MA基差 ● 华东出罐:中间价 ● 西北/陕西:中间价 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 ● 山东:中间价 ● MA进口折人民币 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong having shutdown plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. A bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, while the LL supply - demand balance sheet still faces pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans are increasing. PP inventory is currently neutral, and the 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continued exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis improves slightly. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers. In the long - term, the domestic and foreign real - estate new - construction demand is still weak, and the PVC outlook is poor [5]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' methanol had different changes, such as the Jiangsu spot price dropping from 2208 to 2213, and the Northwest discounted price rising from 2405 to 2438. The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 also changed accordingly [2]. - **Market Situation**: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to move up or down, and a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 690. The prices of various plastic products in different regions changed, such as the North China LL price dropping from 6630 to 6540. The import profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The oil - based and coal - based profits turn worse. The upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are destocking, while the social inventory accumulates this week. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. PP - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 785. The prices of various PP products in different regions changed, such as the East China PP price dropping from 6490 to 6540. The export profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Market Situation**: The market is stable, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The upstream oil - based profit is stable, and the PDH comprehensive profit improves. The downstream BOPP and plastic - weaving profits improve. The supply - side temporary maintenance plans increase, and the overall PP inventory is neutral. The 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550, and the Shandong caustic soda price changed from 622 to 622. The prices of various PVC products in different regions changed, such as the calcium - carbide - based East China price dropping from 4810 to 4780. The export profit and basis also had corresponding changes [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis improves slightly. The ethylene - based FOB and calcium - carbide - based FOB prices need further observation. The coal and semi - coke prices are stable, and the semi - coke and calcium carbide profits are poor. The upstream starts up at a rate of 79.7%, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long - term, the real - estate new - construction demand is still weak [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 2225 to 2210, the华南现货 price increased from 2223 to 2218, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2395. The西北折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2470. The进口利润 improved from -36 to -25, and the主力基差 improved from -45 to -30 [2]. Core View - The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, with Xingxing shutting down, Shenghong shutting down in February, and Luxi shutting down next week. Others also have plans to reduce production, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran normalizes. Currently, it is difficult for methanol prices to go up or down. The MTO profit caps the upper limit, and unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish outlook or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Group 3: Plastic Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the东北亚乙烯 price decreased from 695 to 690. The华北LL price decreased from 6680 to 6570, the华东LL price remained at 6875, and the华东LD price decreased from 8875 to 8650. The LL进口利润 decreased from 91 to -91, and the主力期货 price decreased from 6865 to 6721. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 43, and the仓单 remained at 9428 [2]. Core View - The futures market is oscillating, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with North China - East China at -80, a decrease of 30; South China - East China at 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil is oscillating, the oil - based profit is deteriorating, and the coal - based profit is also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industry is destocking, and the two major oil companies are destocking. Social inventory has increased this week, with HD inventory at a low level, LD inventory increasing, and LL inventory slightly higher than normal. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, there were few maintenance in January, and the full - density production has recovered. In the future, supply will recover. According to the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for 05 is neutral, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under relatively high pressure [2]. Group 4: PP Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6400, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 785. The华东PP price increased from 6610 to 6530, the华北PP price decreased from 6638 to 6588, and the山东粉料 price decreased from 6520 to 6500. The PP美金 price decreased from 825 to 835, and the出口利润 improved from -57 to -37. The主力期货 price decreased from 6730 to 6630, and the基差 remained at -140. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 42, and the仓单 decreased from 17223 to 17195 [3]. Core View - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225, with the export volume slightly decreasing month - on - month. The domestic regional price difference shows North China - East China at -70, an increase of 35; South China - East China at 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, the oil - based profit is stable, the PDH comprehensive profit is -970, an increase of 230, and the PHD operating rate is stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is flat month - on - month. Downstream purchases slightly at low prices during the festival. Upstream, the two major oil companies are destocking, the coal chemical industry is increasing inventory, and social inventory is increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is neutral. According to the balance sheet, the outlook for 05 and the following periods is slightly on the high side, and PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed for improvement [3]. Group 5: PVC Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the西北电石 price remained at 2550, the山东烧碱 price decreased from 622 to 617. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4860 to 4830, and the进口美金价 remained at 700. The出口利润 decreased from 268 to 186, and the基差 remained at -220 [4][5]. Core View - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 575, and that of calcium carbide - based PVC is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged, and the semi - coke price is 820, unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali is around -600. The ethylene - calcium carbide price is stable. Upstream, the operating rate this week is 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9, an increase of 0.4w, the PVC social inventory is 111.4w, an increase of 5w, with 106w in East China, an increase of 5w, and 5.4w in South China, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly high, and the export volume is flat month - on - month. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the seasonal operating rate is recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large, and the sustainability of future exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [5].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Summary Futures Data - On February 9, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,810, up 20 from the previous day and down 375 week - on - week [4] - The position was 27,608, up 331 from the previous day and down 9,713 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 174,314, down 30,875 from the previous day and down 103,781 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 32,270, up 100 from the previous day and up 4,380 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 4.28, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 190, down 70 from the previous day and up 175 week - on - week [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 255, down 270 from the previous day and down 60 week - on - week [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was - 15, up 40 from the previous day and up 45 week - on - week [4] - The RU - BR spread was 3435, up 145 from the previous day and up 440 week - on - week [4] - The NR - BR spread was 340, up 80 from the previous day and up 430 week - on - week [4] Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 12,500, down 200 from the previous day and down 300 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 12,600, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1700, up 75 from the previous day and up 75 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1850, up 25 from the previous day and up 25 week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 382, down 328 from the previous day and down 224 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 1294, down 756 from the previous day and down 842 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1297, up 318 from the previous day and up 392 week - on - week [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data Summary Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 10,475, up 125 from the previous day and down 75 week - on - week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,300, up 50 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR China was 1270, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The C4 extraction profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1780, up 100 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was 215, up 74 from the previous day and down 166 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was - 804, down 63 from the previous day and up 2090 week - on - week [4] Production Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 900, up 38 from the previous day and up 188 week - on - week [4] - The ABS production profit data after February 5 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was - 860, up 45 from the previous day and up 185 week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content, which mainly consists of price and trading data of various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Performance - Latest prices: London Gold at $4948.00, London Platinum at $74.94, London Silver at $2024.00, London Lithium at $1680.00, WTI Crude at $63.55, LME Copper at $12,790.50; Dollar Index at 97.61, Euro - US Dollar at 1.18, Pound - US Dollar at 1.36, US Dollar - Japanese Yen at 157.23, US 10 - year TIPS at 1.88 [1] - Price changes: London Gold -$3.77, London Platinum -$279.00, London Silver +$0.26, London Lithium -$133.50, WTI Crude +$100.75, LME Copper -$154.00; Dollar Index -0.35, Euro - US Dollar +0.01, Pound - US Dollar +0.20, US Dollar - Japanese Yen -0.01, US 10 - year TIPS 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver: latest 12,270.68, change -108.80; Shanghai Futures Exchange Silver: latest 1076.23, change -56.36; Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold: latest 16,191.09, change 0.00; Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver: latest 349.90, change 1.00; Gold ETF holdings: latest 506.49, change -62.56; Silver ETF holdings: latest 2, change -1.72 [1] Metal Ratios - COMEX - London spreads and various metal - to - metal ratios are presented in graphical form, showing trends over different time periods [1] Import Profits - Graphs show trends of silver and gold import profits over different time periods [1][2][3][5] US Treasury Rates and Spreads - Graph shows the relationship between US Treasury yields, inflation - indexed Treasury yields, and London spot gold prices [4] ETF Holdings and Inventories - Graphs show trends of ETF holdings (gold and silver) and inventories (COMEX silver, LBMA silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver) over different time periods [4] Shanghai Gold Exchange Positions and Deliveries - Graphs show trends of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver positions and deliveries over different time periods [4] Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fees - Graphs show trends of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver deferred fee directions over different time periods [4] COMEX Non - Commercial Long Positions - Graph shows the proportion of non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold and silver over different time periods [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][5][7] 2. Core Views - For methanol, the situation in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance with several plant shutdowns and production cuts planned. The price is likely to be range - bound, with the MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options may be appropriate [2] - For plastics, the futures market fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in May is expected to face significant pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, the basis is weak. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume declines slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in May and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [5] - For PVC, the basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average. The overall profit is low, the inventory is moderately high, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Different Categories Methanol - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/30 to 2026/02/05, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 70, the price of South China spot decreased by 20, and the main contract basis changed from - 55 to - 35 [2] - **Market Situation**: Iran's situation affects the market, MTO plants show resistance, and the price is restricted by MTO profit [2] Plastics - **Price and Basis**: The futures price of L fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The regional basis and price differences change [2] - **Profit and Inventory**: The oil - and coal - based production profits decline, the upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina reduce inventory, while the social inventory accumulates. The supply of standard products increases [2] PP - **Price and Basis**: The futures price is stable, the basis is weak, and the regional price differences change [5] - **Profit and Inventory**: The import and export profits are negative, the downstream profit improves, the supply has temporary maintenance plans, and the inventory situation is complex with overall neutrality [5] PVC - **Price and Basis**: The basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average, and the prices of raw materials and products change [6][7] - **Profit and Inventory**: The comprehensive profit is low, the upstream starts production at a moderate rate, the demand is stable, the inventory is moderately high, and the export remains stable [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on February 5, 2026, covering methanol, plastics, PP, and PVC [2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the price of江苏现货 decreased from 2300 to 2250, and the price of西北折盘面 increased from 2385 to 2398 [2] - **Market Outlook**: The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO is showing resistance. Some factories have parking or production reduction plans. It is difficult for methanol to go up or down. MTO profit caps the upside. It is currently appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2] Group 3: Plastic Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 700 to 695, the price of华东LL decreased from 7025 to 6940, and the price of华东LD decreased from 8925 to 8800 [2] - **Market Outlook**: The futures market is oscillating, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The oil - making profit and coal - making profit are deteriorating. The upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating this week. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of 05 PE is expected to be under pressure [2] Group 4: PP Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6370 to 6410, the price of华东PP increased from 6675 to 6620, and the price of主力期货 increased from 6870 to 6801 [3] - **Market Outlook**: The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The import profit is - 334, and the export profit is - 225. The export volume has slightly declined. The upstream profit is stable, and the downstream profit has improved. The supply is temporarily flat in January, and the overall inventory is neutral. The supply of 05 and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [3] Group 5: PVC Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of西北电石 increased from 2500 to 2575, the price of电石法 - 华东 increased from 4720 to 4950, and the price of电石法 - 西北 increased from 4330 to 4550 [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: The V basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the export is flat. The current comprehensive profit of PVC is low, and the short - term seasonal production starts to recover. The long - term demand in the real estate market is weak, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for PVC is poor [5]

2026 年 2 月 5 日 商 品 研 究 原料端原油价格大幅回落，中东地缘局势难定，乙烯单体环节偏弱，PE 乙烯工艺利润有所修复。PE 盘 面前期持续反弹，成交多集中中游，下游暂未追涨补货。近端下游农膜有转弱，包装膜行业刚需维持。供应 端，巴斯夫湛江逐步试产，2 月目前检修计划环比下滑，部分 FD 回切标品，春节前仍需关注存量高产能和 需求转弱带来的供需压力。 LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，海外裂解重组继 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 货 期 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6918 | 0.77% | 481865 | 17366 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -188 | | -185 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -57 | | -51 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | ...