Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on iron ore futures, spot prices, spreads, and import profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 771.0 to 769.0, a drop of 2.0; DCE05 fell from 749.5 to 747.0, a decline of 2.5; DCE09 declined from 789.0 to 786.0, a decrease of 3.0 [2] - I01 - I05 increased from 21.5 to 22.0, a rise of 0.5; I05 - I09 increased from -39.5 to -39.0, a rise of 0.5; I09 - I01 decreased from 18.0 to 17.0, a drop of 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder decreased from 770 to 768, a drop of 2; Newman powder decreased from 764 to 763, a decline of 1; Mac powder decreased from 761 to 756, a decrease of 5 [2] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder with a price of 809 after deducting the 8 yuan/ton warehouse - out fee [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 105 to 109, a rise of 4; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder decreased from 21 to 20, a decline of 1; Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder increased from 132 to 134, a rise of 2 [2] Import Profits - Carajás fines' import profit increased from -26 to -23, a rise of 3; Newman powder's import profit remained at 0; PB powder's import profit decreased from -5 to -6, a drop of 1 [2] Index Prices - The Platts Iron Ore 62% price decreased from 101.1 to 100.8, a drop of 0.3; the Platts Iron Ore 65% price decreased from 118.6 to 118.3, a decline of 0.3; the Platts Iron Ore 58% price decreased from 89.2 to 88.8, a decrease of 0.4 [2][4] 内外盘美金价差 - SGX主力 - DCE01 decreased from 7.7 to 7.5, a drop of 0.2; SGX主力 - DCE05 decreased from 10.4 to 10.2, a decline of 0.3; SGX主力 - DCE09 decreased from 5.4 to 5.2, a decrease of 0.2 [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

Report Summary Core View - In the context of the expected new crop harvest and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. Domestic policy - related meeting contents, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, the realization of new cotton harvest, whether the import sliding - scale duty quota will be increased and the increase amount have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of import sliding - scale duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4] Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on August 7 was 13835, down 15 (-0.11%) from August 6; CF09 was 13670, down 20 (-0.15%); CF09 - 01 was - 165, down 5 from August 6 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on August 7, the price was 15089, up 6 (0.04%); in Henan it was 15220, up 15 (0.10%); in Shandong it was 15169, up 20 (0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1419, up 26 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic cotton yarn futures CY on August 7 was 19705, down 5 (-0.03%); domestic cotton yarn spot C32S price index was 20620, down 20 (-0.10%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT (USD/ pound) on August 7 was 67, unchanged (0.00%); the arrival price was 76.50, down 0.5 (-0.65%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13480, down 87 (-0.64%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14282, down 53 (-0.37%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5870, up 10; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 802, up 34; the spot internal - external spread was 1689, up 107 [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 16.8% of the expected output, compared to 22.5% in the same period last year; 2024/25 soybean sales reached 78.4% of the expected output, compared to 82.2% in the same period last year [1] - From July to August 3, 2025 (2025/26 season), the EU's soybean imports were 970,000 tons, compared to 1.3 million tons in the same period of the previous year; the EU's soybean meal imports were 1.51 million tons, lower than 1.92 million tons in the same period last year; the EU's palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, compared to 360,000 tons in the same period of the previous year; the EU's rapeseed imports were 260,000 tons, compared to 430,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - StoneX predicts that the US soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre; the US corn production in 2025 will be 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, higher than the latest USDA forecasts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 16.8% of the expected output, 2024/25 sales reached 78.4% of the expected output [1] - From July to August 3, 2025, the EU's soybean imports were 970,000 tons, soybean meal imports were 1.51 million tons, palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, and rapeseed imports were 260,000 tons [1] - StoneX predicts US 2025 soybean production of 4.425 billion bushels and corn production of 16.323 billion bushels, higher than USDA forecasts [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 30 to August 5, 2025 are presented [2] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided [3] Oil Basis - No specific content provided [4] Oilseed Futures Price Spreads - No specific content provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of coking coal on the coal chemical industry has diminished, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of methanol itself. The overseas methanol operation remains at a high level, and there is still significant pressure on future arrivals. The maintenance plan for MTO units has not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of future implementation. It is still a period of slight inventory accumulation, and the port basis will maintain a weak consolidation. In the inland area, coal - based methanol has undergone concentrated maintenance but will gradually resume in early August. Among traditional downstream industries, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, while the operation of MTBE and acetic acid still shows some resilience, and the inland demand remains strong. The inventory of inland methanol factories has decreased again, and the inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA01 - 05, MA05 - 09, MA09 - 01). The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are provided for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][31]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated plants). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [34][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [38][44][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period price difference is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Do narrowing spreads when the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread is high [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development Report [1][2] Core Data Futures Prices - DCE01: 770.5, up 13.5 from yesterday; DCE05: 749.0, up 11.0; DCE09: 798.0, up 12.0 [3] - I01 - I05: 21.5, up 2.5; I05 - I09: -49.0, down 1.0; I09 - I01: 27.5, down 1.5 [3] Spot Prices - PB powder: 770, down 12 from the day before yesterday; Newman powder: 766, down 11; Mac powder: 756, down 10 [3] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder, with a standard - converted price of 811, 01 - factory - warehouse basis of 46, 05 - factory - warehouse basis of 65, and 09 - factory - warehouse basis of 17 [3] Price Spreads - Spot variety spreads: e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder: 99, down 1; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder: 23, down 1 [3] - Import profits: e.g., Carajás fines: -4, up 4; Newman powder: 10, up 9 [3] Indexes - Platts 62% iron ore price: 100.1, down 2.5; Platts 65% iron ore price: 114.6, down 2.2; Platts 58% iron ore price: 87.4, down 2.1 [3] - Inner - outer market US - dollar spreads: e.g., SGX main - DCE01: 8.8, down 0.6; SGX main - DCE05: 11.2, down 0.8; SGX main - DCE09: 5.2, down 0.4 [3] Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts, cross - period arbitrage spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different iron ore products, and inner - outer market US - dollar spreads [8][9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such methanol plants in China accounting for 8%. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. Some MTO plants' maintenance plans have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production cuts in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland area, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low but expected to recover gradually by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, and inland plant inventories have decreased again, maintaining a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][20][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [33][34][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][53][59] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 450 yuan/ton (+10). Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 615 yuan/ton (-13). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1990 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 179 yuan/ton (-39); Inner Mongolia southern line is 1990 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2300 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 89 yuan/ton (-34). Henan is 2160 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton (-56). Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 39 yuan/ton (-46). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 352340 tons (-4560), and northwest factory inventory is 218000 tons (-10000). Inland factory pending orders are 243119 tons (+21879), and northwest factory pending orders are 113600 tons (+13600) [1] Ports - Taicang methanol is 2398 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (-33). CFR China is 273 US dollars/ton (-2), and the East China import spread is - 18 yuan/ton (+11). Changzhou methanol is 2395 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2400 yuan/ton (+15), with a basis of - 11 yuan/ton (-31). Longzhong's total port inventory is 790200 tons (+71300), Jiangsu port inventory is 454000 tons (+59000), Zhejiang port inventory is 180000 tons (+4500), and Guangdong port inventory is 106000 tons (-6000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (+0.27%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 142 yuan/ton (+6), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 152 yuan/ton (+1), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 198 yuan/ton (-1), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 178 yuan/ton (+2), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 2 yuan/ton (+13) [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import supply pressure of sugar may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline. [2][4] - The current domestic sugar price spread structure is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, while the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, which is contrary to the theoretical situation. [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import Supply Pressure - Since mid - May, the international sugar price has continued to decline. The price of ICE raw sugar October contract has weakened from over 18 cents per pound, and the July contract once fell below 15 cents per pound. The low delivery price and small quantity indicate insufficient actual demand. [4] - With the decline of the external market price, China's out - of - quota import cost has dropped from around 6200 yuan per ton to about 5600 yuan per ton. Currently, China is in the best import profit window in the past 5 years, with the out - of - quota spot import profit exceeding 600 yuan per ton and the out - of - quota import profit on the futures market exceeding 100 yuan per ton. The import supply is likely to increase in the second half of the year. [4] - In June, Brazil exported 3360000 tons of sugar, an increase of 1100000 tons from May and 160000 tons from last year. The sugar exported to China in June was 760000 tons, an increase of 240000 tons from May and 320000 tons from last year. The supply of processed sugar in the spot market has increased recently. [5] 3.2 Domestic Price Spread Structure - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 3048300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322100 tons. [14] - If the import supply increases as expected in the second half of the year, the basis between the spot and futures prices may return, and it is more likely that the spot price will return to the futures price. [15] - The monthly spread structure of the futures market is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates around 50 yuan per ton. The valuation of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively high compared with other contracts. [15]