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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/08 动力煤期 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 258 320 25 -2 - 801 2275 2248 2350 - 2345 2450 266 322 22 10 - 801 2285 2250 2350 - 2345 2443 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 10 2 0 - 0 -7 - - - -10 - 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可能仍正常发货，另一边关注油的变化，甲醇现在高度有限是因为 其他下游不行，如果油把其他东 西带起来了可能打开上限。 日期 货 免责声明: 以上 ...

| LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/08 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | 丙烷CFR华 | CP预测合 | 山东烷基 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 丙烷CIF日本 | 日期 | 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 | 山东醚后碳四 | 纸面进口利润 主力基差 | 南 | 同价 | 化油 | 2025/12/30 | 4510 | 4372 | 4300 | 582 | 542 | 515 | 4440 | 7150 | -172 | 375 | | | | | 2025/12/31 | 4590 | 4376 | 4250 | 581 | 545 | 516 | 4440 | 7100 | -80 | 318 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或系附属机构的立场,在任何情况下,报告内审仪供参考,报告中的信息或所霖 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | を业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 王涛庭 Z0019938 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 | | | 原田 | | 1月5日 1月4日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 江苏一级 8410 8410 0 0.00% | 现价 | | Y2605 7856 7862 -୧ -0.08% | 期价 | | Y2605 554 548 б 1.09% | 基差 | | 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 +520 0 - | 现 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/2 9 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 2025/12/3 0 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 2025/12/3 1 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 - 320 - -2 - 2026/01/0 6 801 - - - - 2345 2450 - - - 10 - 日度变化 0 - - - - 30 2 - - - 12 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可 ...

塑 料 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/06 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/2 6 801 2145 2120 2370 2485 2355 2445 248 320 20 15 - 2025/12/2 9 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 2025/12/3 0 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 2025/12/3 1 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 - - - -2 - 日度变化 0 23 12 5 - 0 18 - - - 23 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3 ...

LPG = FA 81+ 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/31 LR GEBE 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 同价 化油 南 2025/12/24 4392 4480 4320 590 543 510 4570 7180 -277 398 2025/12/25 4389 4520 7150 4505 4310 l 590 539 510 -245 413 2025/12/26 4510 4384 4270 512 4500 7150 -233 289 541 390 4380 4430 2025/12/29 4510 4320 580 231 208 7130 -163 434 515 4440 2025/12/30 4510 4372 4300 582 542 7150 375 l 80 H H 日度变化 -20 2 11 7 10 20 -59 -8 周二，民用气方面，华东4372（-8），山东4300（-20），华南4510（+0）。醚后碳四4440（+10）。最低交割地为山东。夜盘上 日度变化 涨， ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/30 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 12月25日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为750,312吨符合预期 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年12月25日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为750,312吨，此前市 场预估为750,000-1,200,000吨，前一周修正后为929,365吨，初值为870,199吨。 当周，对中国大陆的大豆出口检验量为135，417吨，占出口检验总量的18.05%。 截至2024年12月26日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1,643,692吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为15,396,334吨，上一年度同期为28,671,623吨。 民间出口商报告向埃及出口销售10，000吨大豆 民间出口商报告向埃及出口销售10,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 润 油 脂 进 口 利 润 现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：跌价部分标品转产非标，但检修有限供应宽松，压制价格 | | 总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工82.6%/-1.2%。新增独山子、齐鲁、天 | | --- | --- | | | 津石化临时检修，裕龙、东明石化重启，供应小幅下滑；下周扬子、中韩、茂名重启，供应再度增加。Q4检修计划同比略低，预计供应维持宽松状 | | | 态，12月中旬以来福建联合、内蒙、宁夏宝丰约130万吨全密度产能转产HD,占比约3.3%，且外盘乙烯裂解利润持续承压，关注后续规模及对 ...