Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text Core Viewpoints - Chinese methanol port inventory begins to show a lagging de - stocking, with a significant decline in port inventory this week and a slowdown in arrivals being gradually realized [2] - The MTO in the downstream is in the maintenance period, causing the de - stocking of the port not to be fully realized, and some downstream MTO devices are still under maintenance [2] - Coal - based methanol in the inland maintains high - level operation, downstream pending orders perform well, and inland factory inventory further decreases, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival [3] - Traditional downstream industries: acetic acid maintains a loss - making and low - load state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and MTBE operation shows good performance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][24][25] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [6][31][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][35][42] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 - MA2609, the strategy is to widen the spread when it is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 - 3*MA2605, the strategy is to narrow the spread when it is high [4] Core Viewpoints - The delayed unloading pressure at ports has started to materialize, and there is pressure for inventory accumulation at Jiangsu ports [2] - After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentrated, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted on Monday, and the situation of the plants is fluctuating [2] - Although the Iranian plants are operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs further confirmation [2] - The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude is dragging down port demand [2] - Coal - based methanol production is still operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance for southwest gas - based methanol production [3] - The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, acetic acid production has a slight increase but remains at a low level, MTBE production remains at a high level, and formaldehyde production has a slight decline [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][13][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads between different regions (Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][28][29] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Figures display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [31][39] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures show regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [37][44][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [46][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inland methanol price continued to decline. The market focus at the port is still on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. The port's basis has risen rapidly this week, and the actual port inventory pressure persists. The coal - based methanol operating rate inland has bottomed out and is expected to further increase by the end of October, with inland inventory gradually rebuilding from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have low operating rates, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a further decline in inland prices [1][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][33] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - There are charts about methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [6][34][35] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences like the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc [6][38][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][51][54] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, and the deep negative basis is maintained. There is currently a pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas. The port reflow to southern Shandong has opened, and the downside space depends on the inland performance. The coal - based methanol concentrated maintenance period has passed, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. The traditional downstream has seen a decline in pending orders and a drop in the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid, while the formaldehyde operating rate remains low [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis (such as methanol at Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia Northern Line, etc. relative to the main futures contract) and inter - period spreads (such as between different methanol futures contracts like 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data are presented in figures with units of yuan/ton [6][21][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The units are yuan/ton or US dollars/ton [25][26][29] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The report provides figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones). The units are tons and percentages respectively [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Figures display regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., with the unit of yuan/ton [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - **Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure**: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - **Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit**: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - **Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory**: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - **Traditional Downstream Profits**: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol has not changed significantly, and the basis is weakly consolidating. The port is experiencing inventory accumulation, with the basis continuing to be weak, while the inland is stronger than the port. The overall pattern is that the inland market is more robust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA09 - 01) [6][10][23] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the profit situation of methanol production (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][31] 3.3 Methanol开工, Inventory - Data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) are presented [34][36] 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides information on regional price differences, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong - East China [38][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [54][56] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] - **Inter - period**: For the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread, conduct a reverse spread when the spread is high [3] - **Cross - variety**: When the spread is high, reduce the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3]