Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue in Q2, with no significant growth in demand-side production scheduling. The supply side shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de-stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices [3]. - The fundamentals remain weak, but as the lithium carbonate price continues to decline, the probability of supply-side disturbances will increase. Be vigilant against sharp fluctuations caused by short covering. The short-term strong resistance level is 63,000 - 65,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 25.3%, and the current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) is 30.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventories and inventory impairment risks, strategies include shorting lithium carbonate futures (using LC2508, selling, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), selling call options (using over - the - counter/on - exchange options, selling, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 3), and buying out - of - the - money put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying, strategy level 2) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, selling, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1 - 3), buying long - term lithium carbonate contracts (using far - month lithium carbonate contracts, buying, hedging ratio based on procurement plan), and buying out - of - the - money call options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1) [2]. 3.3 Market News - It is rumored that several lithium salt plants plan to conduct maintenance in June, which is expected to affect the monthly lithium salt output by about 3,000 tons. Combined with last Thursday's shutdown, it is expected to affect the future monthly output by 4,500 tons, but it has little impact on the current lithium carbonate market [4]. 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: Positive macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth; the probability of upstream ore and lithium salt plant shutdowns and maintenance increases as prices fall; there is an expectation of "90 - day" export rush due to the easing of Sino - US game, leading to passive de - stocking; high open interest may cause a rebound in the market due to short profit - taking [5][6]. - **利空 Factors**: There are still many future lithium ore production expectations, and high inventories suppress ore prices, which may drag down lithium carbonate costs; both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in the process of inventory accumulation; industrial technology upgrades delay the clearance of high - cost production capacity [6]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,920, with a daily increase of 820 (1.36%), and a year - on - year decrease of 42.64%. The trading volume of the main contract is 392,469, with a daily increase of 130,487 (49.81%), and a year - on - year increase of 309.68%. The open interest of the futures main contract is 293,695, with a daily decrease of 32,777 (-10.04%), and a year - on - year increase of 71.11% [8]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The SMM average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,500, down 550 (-0.87%); the SMM average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,900, down 550 (-0.9%); the SMM average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 64,420, down 300 (-0.46%); the SMM average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide is 58,400, down 260 (-0.44%); the SMM average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars/kg, down 0.05 (-0.59%); the fastmarkets average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of various lithium carbonate brands remain unchanged compared to the previous day [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of LC07 - 08, LC08 - 11, LC11 - 12, and LC12 - 03 have different degrees of change compared to the previous period, with significant year - on - year changes [13]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread**: The difference between electric and industrial carbonates is 1,600 (no change); the difference between battery - grade carbonate and hydroxide is 1,920, up 250 (14.97%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price is -4,080.28, down 131.83 (3.34%) [18]. - **Lithium Ore and Shipping Cost**: The average price of lithium mica (2% - 2.5%) is 1,260, down 20 (-1.56%); the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 688 dollars/ton, down 2 (-0.29%); the fastmarkets price of lithium spodumene (6%) is 645 dollars/ton (no change); the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars/ton, down 15 (-2%) [20]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt Data - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 34,154, a daily decrease of 825. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [23][24].