1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the destocking process is slow. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price decline" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 as technological upgrades are completed and production increases [3]. - There are positive factors such as improved macro sentiment and supply - side disruptions, and negative factors including high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and technological upgrades delaying capacity clearance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 and 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 3.29% daily and 10.95% weekly; trading volume is 521,849 lots, down 34.19% daily and 70.52% weekly; open interest is 229,368 lots, down 15.91% daily and 47.48% weekly. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 2.81% daily and 8.53% weekly; trading volume is 378,788 lots, down 17.16% daily and up 20.72% weekly; open interest is 195,732 lots, up 5.60% daily and 33.12% weekly [8]. - **Futures Spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 1700% daily and 119% weekly; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 520 yuan/ton, up 189% daily and down 263% weekly [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Spot Price**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, down 1.41% daily and up 5.74% weekly [15]. - **Lithium Salt Spot Price**: The average prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide also show daily and weekly fluctuations. For instance, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,900 yuan/ton, down 1.34% daily and up 1.45% weekly [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spread**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a 27.27% weekly increase [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and the brand - based basis quotes of different companies have specific values. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy for the LC2507 contract is 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 5,545, a decrease of 7,586 from the previous day [30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary requirements [33]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 50% of lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in profits, sell 50% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound due to macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, a "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" is formed [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward as technological transformation is completed and production is concentrated [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and up 1,220 yuan (1.76%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots (6.55%) from the previous day and down 541,250 lots (-40.57%) from the previous week. The open interest is 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots (-9.27%) from the previous day and down 89,301 lots (-24.67%) from the previous week [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 month - spread is 280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 480 yuan (-63%) from the previous week. The LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan (13%) from the previous week [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan (10.59%) from the previous week; the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.55%) from the previous day and up 275 yuan (5.04%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars (1.96%) from the previous week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.21%) from the previous day and up 2,050 yuan (2.98%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan (3.55%) from the previous week [18]. - **Price Spread**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-2.33%) from the previous day and up 450 yuan (27.27%) from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis data of lithium carbonate shows different values for different brands. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI₂CO₃≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 12,276, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Bennigang Port, had a decrease in warehouse receipts [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary part of this output [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in finished - product profits at a recommended ratio of 50%, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up cycle of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentrated [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volume of the Main Contract**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 69,380 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,500 yuan (- 4.80%) and a weekly increase of 2,960 yuan (4.46%). The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, with a daily increase of 215,933 lots (19.31%) and a weekly increase of 856,045 lots (179.05%). The open interest was 362,054 lots, with a daily decrease of 49,584 lots (- 12.05%) and a weekly increase of 21,436 lots (6.29%) [8]. - **Price Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 700 yuan, with a daily decrease of 300 yuan (- 30.00%) and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan (- 7.89%); the LC09 - 11 spread was 760 yuan, with a daily decrease of 320 yuan (- 30%) and a weekly increase of 180 yuan (31%); the LC11 - 12 spread was - 160 yuan, with a daily decrease of 180 yuan (- 900%) and a weekly increase of 80 yuan (- 33%) [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, showed different degrees of daily and weekly increases. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan (0.94%) and a weekly increase of 155 yuan (10.69%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan (2.00%) and a weekly increase of 5,450 yuan (8.60%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed different degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 32,665 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 325 yuan (1.00%) [23]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands showed different degrees of decline. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) was 100 yuan, with a daily decrease of 300 yuan [27]. - **Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants was 10,754, an increase of 665 from the previous day. The warrant quantities of different warehouses changed differently, with some increasing and some decreasing [30]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Delivery Profits**: The report shows the trends of production profits from purchased ore, theoretical delivery profits, and import profits of lithium carbonate, but specific profit values are not summarized here [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "off - season not so off" phenomenon; in Q4, the futures price is expected to decline as technological upgrades are completed and production volume is concentratedly released [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and industrial technology upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Futures Price and Volume**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,320 yuan (1.89%) and a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan (7.22%). The trading volume was 848,150 lots, a daily decrease of 358,173 lots (- 29.69%) and a weekly decrease of 166,408 lots (- 16.40%). The open interest was 381,185 lots, a daily increase of 3,880 lots (1.03%) and a weekly increase of 25,024 lots (7.03%) [8]. - **Futures Spread**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 1,060 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 200 yuan (- 15.87%) and a weekly increase of 340 yuan (47.22%); the LC09 - 11 spread was 1,080 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 260 yuan (- 19%) and a weekly increase of 600 yuan (125%); the LC11 - 12 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 50%) and a weekly decrease of 460 yuan (- 115%) [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Price**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,545 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.66%) and a weekly increase of 95 yuan (6.55%); the average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) was 755 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 25 US dollars (3.42%) and a weekly increase of 65 US dollars (9.42%) [15]. - **Lithium Salt Price**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,300 yuan (2.00%) and a weekly increase of 3,300 yuan (5.23%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan (2.03%) and a weekly increase of 3,350 yuan (5.18%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,075 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (1.01%) [22]. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and brand - based basis quotes of different companies are provided, with most showing no daily change [26]. - **Warrant Quantity**: The total warrant quantity decreased from 10,239 to 9,969, a decrease of 270. Some warehouses had a reduction in warrant quantity, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Benniu Port [31]. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends are presented, but specific profit values are not summarized here [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the current market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price drop". When the futures rebound, it creates a hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but the price will eventually fall back due to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upwards at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downwards in the fourth quarter due to the end of technological transformation and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.3% and a historical percentile of 27.1% in the past three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the trading volume is 764,028 lots, down 250,530 lots or 24.69%; the open interest is 342,146 lots, down 14,015 lots or 3.94%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 66,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.15%; the trading volume and open interest remain unchanged [10]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread is 760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 5.56%; the LC09 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 17%; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or - 15% [13]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores show different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 5 - 5.5%) is 4,975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.40%; the average price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 690 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars or - 0.36% [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also have different changes. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan or 0.40% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current value of the battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 12.02% [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also show different changes. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.18% [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, such as the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is 400 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 500 yuan/ton [29]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 11,204 lots, down 1 lot from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi's warehouse receipts decreasing by 20 lots, and Suining Tiancheng's increasing by 120 lots [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - decline cycle, a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - lithium salt price drop again" may occur. When the futures price rebounds, a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" may form, but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price will fluctuate downward as technological upgrades end and production output is released [3]. - Strategy suggestions: conduct a long - LC2509 and short - LC2511 calendar spread; short LC2511 at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.2% and a historical percentile of 17.6% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 64,180 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 398,022 lots, up 47,897 lots (13.68%); the open interest is 323,683 lots, down 3,212 lots (- 0.98%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 63,920 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan (- 0.25%); the trading volume is 38,236 lots, up 7,655 lots (25.03%); the open interest is 99,240 lots, up 4,881 lots (5.17%) [9]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 260 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 19%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan, down 220 yuan (220%) [12]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The latest average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents (2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,405 yuan/ton, 2,540 yuan/ton, and 4,995 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan (1.44%), 25 yuan (0.99%), and 45 yuan (0.91%). For lithium辉石 with Li₂O:6% (Brazil CIF, Australian CIF, fastmarkets), the prices are 670 US dollars/ton, 675 US dollars/ton, and 675 US dollars/ton, with daily increases of 0 US dollars (0%), 5 US dollars (0.75%), and 5 US dollars (0.74%). The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:6 - 7%) is 4,565 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (1.44%). The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1771, down 0.0031 (- 0.04%) [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 62,050 yuan/ton and 63,650 yuan/ton respectively, both up 350 yuan (0.57% and 0.55%). The prices of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) are 51,970 yuan/ton and 62,570 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) is 8 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars (- 0.62%); the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) is 8.00 US dollars/kg, unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (47.95%); the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea - domestic spread is - 212 yuan/ton, down 382.51 yuan (- 224.33%) [21]. - **Downstream Products**: The latest average prices of power - type, low - end energy - storage type, and mid - to - high - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate are 31,030 yuan/ton, 27,360 yuan/ton, and 29,605 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 80 yuan (0.26%), 80 yuan (0.29%), and 85 yuan (0.29%). The price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 43,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.12%). For ternary materials (523 - type for consumption, 622 - type for consumption, 811 - type for power), the prices are 106,100 yuan/ton, 111,050 yuan/ton, and 142,850 yuan/ton, with daily increases of 140 yuan (0%), 30 yuan (0.03%), and 70 yuan (0.05%). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,050 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan (- 0.97%). The prices of electrolytes for lithium iron phosphate, lithium - iron energy - storage, lithium - iron power, and ternary power are 17,800 yuan/ton, 16,900 yuan/ton, 19,300 yuan/ton, and 21,750 yuan/ton respectively, all down 150 yuan (- 1%) [23][24]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis quotes of lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, etc., for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 yuan to 500 yuan, with no daily changes. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for the LC2507 contract is 162.5 yuan, unchanged [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 13,281, down 90 from the previous day. The warehouse - receipt quantities of some warehouses have changed, such as a decrease of 60 in Suining Tiancheng and an increase of 30 in Cosco Shipping Nanchang [32]. 4. Cost and Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only provides some profit trend charts including production profit from外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%), production profit from外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped upward chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fall in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical upgrades and increased production. Strategy suggestions are to conduct a long - short spread trade between LC2509 and LC2511 and to short LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile of 25.9% over three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 64,400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan or 0.81% from the previous day; trading volume was 350,125 lots, down 195,280 lots or 35.80%; open interest was 326,895 lots, down 11,139 lots or 3.30%. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan or 0.85%; trading volume was 30,581 lots, down 24,591 lots or 44.57%; open interest was 94,359 lots, down 746 lots or 0.78% [9]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 14.29%; the LC09 - 11 spread was 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 6%; the LC11 - 12 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or - 50% [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,385 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.21%; for Li2O: 3 - 4%, it was 2,515 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.41%; for Li2O: 5 - 5.5%, it was 4,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 1.02%. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazil CIF) was 670 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars or 0.75%; for Australian ore CIF, it was also 670 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars or 0.75%; for fastmarkets, it was 670 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars or 1.51%. The average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6 - 7%) was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1.69%. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1741, down 0.0008 or - 0.01% [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 0.65%; for battery - grade lithium carbonate, it was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 0.64%. The average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 51,970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.1%; for battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), it was 62,620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.08%; for battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea), it was 8.05 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars or - 0.62%; for fastmarkets, it was 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [20]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was - 280 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan or - 333.33%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 114.87 yuan/ton, down 284.99 yuan or - 71.27% [24]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.32%; for low - end energy - storage type, it was 27,280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.33%; for mid - to - high - end energy - storage type, it was 29,520 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan or 0.32%. The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate was 43,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.12%. For ternary materials, the 523 (consumer - type) was 105,960 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0%; the 622 (consumer - type) was 111,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 811 (power - type) was 142,780 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.01%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. For electrolyte, the price for lithium iron phosphate use was 17,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; for iron - lithium energy - storage use, it was 17,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; for iron - lithium power use, it was 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; for ternary power use, it was 21,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [26][27]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: For the LC2507 contract, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy was 400 yuan/ton; Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianyi Lithium Industry were 500 yuan/ton; Jiangxi Jiuling and Yongxing Materials were 300 yuan/ton; Zhongkuang Resources was 400 yuan/ton; Ruifu Lithium Industry was 100 yuan/ton; Zhejiang New Era was 0 yuan/ton; for Lanke Lithium Industry (quasi - electric), it was - 300 yuan/ton; for industrial - grade, it was - 400 yuan/ton. The comprehensive basis quote for the four materials was 162.5 yuan/ton [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 13,281, an increase of 626 from the previous day. There were changes in the warehouse receipts of some warehouses, such as an increase of 652 in Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Yifeng), a decrease of 180 in Jiangsu Bennigang Wharf, etc [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate, but no specific data values are summarized here [33].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face significant pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end. A decline in ore prices may lead to a further drop in lithium salt prices, potentially resulting in a spiral - like cycle of price decline. The fundamentals in Q3 remain in an oversupply situation, while the short - term technical aspects may experience a phased rebound. Currently, a weak - oscillating outlook is maintained [3]. - Positive factors include an increasing probability of supply - side disruptions as lithium ore and lithium salt prices fall, potential market confidence boost from the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers, which could lift futures prices [4]. - Negative factors involve a large future production capacity of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, which in turn could drag down the cost of lithium carbonate; high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt and a continued inventory accumulation trend; and the delay of capacity clearance due to cost reduction in some high - cost technical routes caused by industrial technological upgrades [5]. Group 3: Futures Price and Strategy - The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 23.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling lithium carbonate futures (LC2509), 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, lithium carbonate forward contracts can be bought according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and put options can be sold while buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. Group 4: Futures Market Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan (0.30%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 366,743 lots, down 315,004 lots (- 46.21%), and the open interest is 350,406 lots, up 6,842 lots (1.99%) [8]. - Regarding the lithium carbonate monthly spreads, LC07 - 08 is 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 16.67%); LC08 - 11 is 340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 15.00%); LC09 - 11 is 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 30%); LC11 - 12 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (6%) [14]. Group 5: Lithium Ore Price - The daily average quotes of lithium ore show different prices and changes for different months from June 2025 to July 2026 [17]. - The latest average prices of lithium mica with different grades (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,210 yuan/ton, 2,205 yuan/ton, and 4,505 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton (1.68%), 30 yuan/ton (1.38%), and 45 yuan/ton (1.01%). For lithium spodumene with Li2O: 6% from different sources, the prices and changes vary. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6 - 7%) has an average price of 4,875 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton (- 6.70%). The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1717, unchanged [19]. Group 6: Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Price - The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) are 58,600 yuan/ton, 60,200 yuan/ton, 52,370 yuan/ton, 63,420 yuan/ton, 8.13 USD/kg, and 8.25 USD/kg respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes [22]. - The electric - carbon minus industrial - carbon spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen minus electric - carbon spread is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton (- 15.71%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea and the domestic price is - 3.92 yuan/ton, up 166.44 yuan/ton (- 97.70%) [25]. Group 7: Downstream Product Price - The latest average prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate (power - type, low - end energy - storage type, mid - to - high - end energy - storage type), lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes (for different uses) and their daily changes and percentage changes are provided [35][36]. Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Warrant - The total number of lithium carbonate warrants is 22,370, down 5 from the previous day. Warrant numbers at different warehouses and sub - warehouses are also provided, with most remaining unchanged [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market in the second quarter is expected to continue, with no significant growth in demand - side production during the off - season. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices. Also, be cautious of the contradiction between the high open interest of the 2507 contract and the approaching delivery month for new energy varieties [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the large future production capacity expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt in a continuous accumulation trend, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to cost reduction of some high - cost technology routes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Prediction**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventories and at risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the money call options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,046 lots, down 560 lots or 0.31%; the open interest was 306,885 lots, down 450 lots or 0.15%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract was 59,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13%; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - spread Changes**: The LC07 - 08 month - spread was 340 yuan/ton (previous value: 160 yuan/ton, last week: 440 yuan/ton); LC08 - 11 was 300 yuan/ton (previous value: 300 yuan/ton, last week: 360 yuan/ton); LC09 - 11 was 40 yuan/ton (previous value: 100 yuan/ton, last week: - 100 yuan/ton); LC11 - 12 was - 380 yuan/ton (previous value: - 300 yuan/ton, last week: - 240 yuan/ton) [15]. 3.3 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores remained unchanged on the day. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li2O: 2 - 2.5% was 1,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium辉石 with Li2O: 6% (Brazil CIF) was 615 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 53,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.47%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 64,570 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.39% [22]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was 4,120 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 5.72%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices was - 934.79 yuan/ton, up 262.22 yuan or - 21.91% [26]. 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The prices of some downstream products remained stable, while others declined slightly. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary material was 105,220 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 622 (consumer - type) ternary material was 111,120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.08%; the price of 811 (power - type) ternary material was 143,120 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.13% [36][37]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 31,713 to 29,967, a decrease of 1,746. Some warehouses such as Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai and Cosco Shipping Nanchang saw significant decreases in warehouse receipts [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate remains weak, but as the price continues to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances will increase. Near holidays, the probability of short - position closing will also rise, so the recent market may fluctuate sharply. The short - term shock range is 58,000 - 63,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 23.4%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 28.6% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For companies with high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, strategies include shorting lithium carbonate futures (LC2508, sell, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) to lock in profits and cover production costs, selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options, sell, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 3), and buying out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buy, strategy level 2) [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For companies with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options, sell, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1 - 3), buying long - term lithium carbonate contracts (far - month lithium carbonate contracts, buy, based on procurement plan) to lock in procurement costs, and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buy, based on procurement plan, strategy level 1) [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no significant increase in demand - side production scheduling. On the supply side, production has not improved significantly, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are under great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices, potentially leading to a spiral - like cycle of falling prices [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Macroeconomic policies are positive, and support for industries such as robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI may stimulate electricity demand growth [5]. - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to fall, the probability of upstream ore mines and lithium salt plants suspending production for maintenance will increase [5]. - The Sino - US game has eased, and there is an expectation of a "90 - day" export rush in the market, with an expectation of passive de - stocking [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to increase, and inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate [6]. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend [7]. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have postponed the clearance of high - cost production capacity [7]. 3.6 Futures Market Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 58,860, with a daily decrease of 1,520 (- 2.52%) and a year - on - year decrease of 44.05%. The trading volume is 386,145, with a daily decrease of 1,995 (- 0.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 308.58%. The open interest is 287,506, with a daily increase of 3,899 (1.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 72.47% [9]. 3.7 Spot Market Data - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61,500, with a daily decrease of 500 (- 0.81%); SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 59,900, with a daily decrease of 500 (- 0.83%); SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 63,970, with a daily decrease of 250 (- 0.39%); SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57,950, with a daily decrease of 250 (- 0.43%); battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea (SMM) is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change; battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change [11]. 3.8 Month - to - Month Spread Data - LC07 - 08: current value - 320, previous value - 260, week - on - week change - 69.81%, month - on - month change - 69.81%, year - on - year change - 84.39% [14]. - LC08 - 11: current value - 180, previous value - 100, week - on - week change - 60.87%, month - on - month change - 66.67%, year - on - year change - 86% [14]. - LC11 - 12: current value - 840, previous value - 640, week - on - week change - 69.81%, month - on - month change 2.44%, year - on - year change - 47.50% [14]. - LC12 - 03: current value - 380, previous value - 180, week - on - week change 72.73%, month - on - month change - 5.00%, year - on - year change - 52.50% [14]. 3.9 Lithium Ore and Shipping Data - Lithium mica average price (2% - 2.5%) is 1,235 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 (- 1.2%); lithium spodumene concentrate average price (6%, CIF China) is 680 dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 6 (- 0.87%); lithium spodumene 6% (fastmarkets quote) is 635 dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 (- 1.6%); lithium spodumene concentrate 6% (Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 (- 2%); Zimbabwe container quote is 34.5 dollars/ton, with no change; Zimbabwe bulk quote is 35.5 dollars/ton, with no change; Nigerian container quote is 20.5 dollars/ton, with no change; Nigerian bulk quote is 26.5 dollars/ton, with no change [25]. 3.10 Warehouse Receipt Data - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 33,884, an increase of 30 from the previous day. Among them, the number of warehouse receipts in some warehouses has changed, such as an increase of 60 in Zhongyuan Shipping Nanchang and a decrease of 30 in Zhongyuan Shipping Lingang [28][30].