Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Shockingly stronger [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Range-bound [1] - **Gold**: Shock [1] - **Silver**: Shockingly stronger [1] - **Copper**: Range-bound [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum - Range-bound; Alumina - Shockingly weaker [4] - **Nickel**: Range-bound [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Shockingly weaker [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Shock [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Shock [5][6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Shockingly weaker [9] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish; Float Glass - Bearish [9] - **Crude Oil**: Shockingly weaker [11] - **Methanol**: Decline [11] - **Polyolefins**: Decline [11] - **Cotton**: Shockingly stronger [10] - **Rubber**: Shockingly weaker [10] Core Views - The second - round Sino - US trade negotiations have started, with the US releasing positive signals, but no clear information yet. The domestic economy still needs policy support, and there are uncertainties in the overseas macro - environment [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of various commodities is affected by factors such as macro - economy, seasonality, and production capacity changes, resulting in different price trends [1][4][6][9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The A - share market continued to be strong on Monday, with the science - innovation sector warming up. The trading volume of the two markets increased slightly to 1.31 trillion yuan. The pharmaceutical, comprehensive, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while the food and beverage, automobile, and home appliance industries declined slightly. The basis of index futures converged, and the spread increased as the last trading day of the current - month contract approached. However, due to weak domestic demand price signals and overseas uncertainties, the short - term upward momentum may weaken [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market is affected by macro - uncertainties and cannot form a trend. The short - term liquidity is further relaxed, which boosts the market, but the upward pace of the bond market may be slow due to the simultaneous strength of stocks and bonds and limited expectations of comprehensive and substantial easing [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, while the medium - and long - term price center will move up. Strategies include buying on dips based on long - term moving averages or holding short - put options [4]. - **Silver**: The gold - silver ratio is high, and silver has the driving force to repair its valuation upwards. Conservative investors can hold short - put options, while aggressive investors can lightly test long positions in the AG2508 contract [2][4] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - environment has high uncertainties, and the supply of the mine end is tight. The long - term smelting processing fee may be negative, increasing the losses of smelting enterprises. The demand is cautious due to the off - season and uncertainties. The LME inventory is decreasing. Short - term market sentiment and funds may amplify price fluctuations [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The macro - environment is uncertain. For alumina, the supply pressure increases as the production capacity resumes, and the price may run close to the cost line. For aluminum, the supply is constrained, but the demand policy is uncertain, with limited directional drive [4] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand surplus contradiction continues, but there is cost support at the bottom. The fundamental changes are limited, and the price is in a shock pattern, with option strategies being relatively dominant [4] Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is loose, and the lithium price is in a weak shock at a low level due to factors such as inventory accumulation in the downstream and the recovery of production capacity in the lithium salt production [6] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. However, due to the improvement of the macro - sentiment and the digestion of previous negatives, the probability of a deep decline is low. It is recommended to intervene in short - put options [6] Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price fluctuates narrowly, and the demand has entered the off - season. The raw material price is under pressure, and the probability of the spot price falling to repair the discount of the futures price is high. It is recommended to continue holding short - call options [5][6] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price fluctuates narrowly. The plate demand is tough, but the market expectation is cautious. The price center is expected to move down, and it is recommended to continue holding the previously recommended short positions in the 10 - contract [5][6] - **Iron Ore**: The supply will increase seasonally, and the inventory has increased. The medium - and long - term probability of a supplementary decline is high. Conservative investors can hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination, while aggressive investors can hold short positions in the I2601 contract with a stop - loss line [5][6][9] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply surplus situation has not been alleviated, and the coal price is prone to fall. Attention should be paid to whether there are policy - based production restrictions at the mine end [9] - **Coke**: The third - round price cut has been implemented. The demand is expected to weaken, and the futures price trend is weak [9] Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The supply is loose, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, hold short positions in the 09 - contract, and short on rebounds based on the ammonia - alkali cash cost line [9] - **Float Glass**: The downstream has entered the off - season, the demand is pessimistic, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [9] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro - and geopolitical factors, the oil price hits the upper resistance area, but the rebound space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase and weak global demand, and it maintains high - volatility characteristics [11] - **Methanol**: Overseas device start - up rates are rising, and imports and production are high. Traditional demand is in the off - season, and the price is prone to fall. It is recommended to short - call options first and short the 09 - contract futures second [11] Polyolefins - New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply pressure of PP is higher than that of PE. It is recommended to focus on the expansion of the L - PP spread [11] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: With the improvement of domestic macro - data, the short - term price may be shockingly stronger due to good weather in the main producing areas, improved downstream export data, and a decline in commercial inventory [10] - **Rubber**: The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the demand is not ideal. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the short - term price is difficult to have a trend - type rebound [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the benchmark [35]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations. The statement noted increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, with short-term inflation risks rising and employment risks declining [2][3]. - The Fed plans to reduce the scale of quantitative tightening (QT) starting in April, with a monthly reduction cap for Treasury securities set to $5 billion, down from $25 billion, while maintaining a $35 billion cap for agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities [2][8]. - Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, with GDP growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while unemployment rate expectations for 2025 have been raised to 4.4% [3][10]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting highlighted a cautious approach to monetary policy, with officials indicating a need for data-driven decisions due to heightened economic uncertainty [2][3]. - The dot plot revealed a narrowing of opinions regarding the number of rate cuts expected in 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated, but with increased divergence on the magnitude of those cuts [3]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and stock markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [9][12]. - The market is pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut in 2025, reflecting an increase in expectations following the FOMC meeting [9]. Future Policy Outlook - The report suggests that the U.S. economy may face a "stagflation-like" environment, complicating the Fed's decision-making between employment and inflation control [10]. - The Fed's decision to slow down the balance sheet reduction is seen as a precautionary measure, with potential for further adjustments depending on liquidity conditions [10][11]. Asset Allocation Insights - U.S. Treasuries are viewed as a high-probability investment, but the potential for significant rate cuts may be limited by inflation risks [11]. - The report advises a cautious stance on U.S. equities due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic performance, suggesting a diversified asset allocation strategy [12][13].