Core Viewpoint - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter has been revised to -0.2%, up from an initial estimate of -0.3%, indicating a contraction in the economy for the first time since 2022 due to weak consumer spending and higher-than-expected import growth [1] Economic Indicators - The final GDP data is expected to be released next month, with the initial report indicating a contraction [1] - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, increased by 1.2%, revised down from an initial estimate of 1.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs significantly revised down the U.S. Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March [1] Group 1: Trade Deficit and Economic Indicators - In March, the U.S. trade deficit expanded more than expected, driven by an increase in consumer goods imports, likely reflecting a "front-running" of imports before tariff hikes [1] - Both imports and exports saw growth in March, but the increase in imports was notably strong while export growth was only moderately stronger [1] - The accumulation of inventory has accelerated, contributing to the downward revision of GDP forecasts [1] Group 2: GDP Forecast Adjustment - The GDP tracking forecast for Q1 was adjusted down by 0.6 percentage points to -0.8% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis [1] - The U.S. GDP data is scheduled to be released on the evening of April 30 [1]