Group 1 - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, leading to record highs in the three major U.S. stock indices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, reflecting heightened market sentiment [1] - Risk assets and safe-haven assets have both reached historical highs, raising questions among investors about whether the market has achieved "perfect pricing" and if it has fully reflected all positive factors, potentially limiting future gains [3] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that the market is far from "perfect pricing," indicating that concerns about future risks provide potential upside for the market [3][4] Group 2 - The report outlines five key reasons why the market is not "perfectly priced," starting with the historical high in gold prices, which signals market fear rather than extreme optimism [4] - Current U.S. inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year inflation swap rate at 2.92%, indicating that inflation pressures are priced in, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [7][5] - Ongoing tariff concerns persist, with potential for additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, reflecting unresolved risks in the market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of concern, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 64,000 over the past six months, the lowest in the current economic cycle, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest since late 2021 [9] - There is a widespread expectation among investors for further interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which reflects concerns about potential economic slowdown rather than strong economic signals [10]

证 券 研 究 报 告 投资摘要： 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 42 期 兑现降息预期，否认降息周期——9 月美联 储议息会议点评 2025 年第 6 期 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence. —Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand 1. 美联储 9 月份议息会议宣布降息 25 个基点，把联邦基金利率区间从 4.25%- 4.5%降至 4%-4.25%。 2. 美联储上调美国经济增长预期和通胀预期，2025 年经济增长预期值上调 0.2%至 1.6%，2026 年核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.2%至 2.6%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或从 2 次升至 3 次，2026 年和 2027 年 降息次数均保持在 1 次不变。 4. 美联储认为高关税向通胀水平的传导力度有所减弱，同时强化对于劳动力 市场 ...

Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks showed strong performance, with the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index both rising over 2% [4] - Popular Chinese concept stocks experienced significant gains, with Tiger Securities, iQIYI, and Kingsoft Cloud all rising over 10%, and companies like Huya, ZTO Express, Dingdong Maicai, and JD.com also seeing substantial increases [5] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have performed strongly, with the ChiNext Index reaching a new high for the year and the Shenzhen Component Index also hitting a four-month high [6] Group 2 - Major sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive received over 20 billion yuan in net inflows from main funds this week, while sectors like power equipment, communications, computers, and non-ferrous metals also saw over 10 billion yuan in net inflows [6] - The market outlook remains positive, with various sectors like banking, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry showing a trend of rising stock prices, indicating a "hundred flowers blooming" scenario [6]

Global Asset Performance - European stock markets led the gains, with the UK FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC rising by 1.3%, 2%, and 1.7% respectively [1] - In the US, the S&P 500 remained flat, the Dow Jones fell by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.1% [1] - Major bond yields mostly rose, with Japan's 10-year bond yield increasing by 16 basis points due to concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the Senate elections [1] - Commodity prices for gold and oil saw a decline, while the US dollar index rose by 0.9% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a divergence in views among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, with some supporting a rate cut in July while others preferred to maintain current policies [4] - Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut path remained largely unchanged from the previous week [4] - President Trump exerted pressure on Fed Chairman Powell, claiming interest rates were too high and suggesting potential candidates for the next Fed chair [4] US Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, indicating low layoffs and a stable labor market [13] - One-year inflation expectations slightly decreased to 3%, while three-year and five-year expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [13] - President Trump delayed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs until August 1, while announcing a 50% tariff on copper to boost key domestic industries [13] - The market reacted strongly to the copper tariff announcement, with COMEX copper futures rising over 12% on the day [13] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Germany's industrial output rebounded by 1.2% in May, exceeding market expectations, driven by growth in the automotive and energy sectors [29] - Japan's wholesale price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, down from a revised 3.3% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures [30]

Group 1: Legislative Developments - The "Great American Beauty Act" has entered the Senate discussion phase, with a potential passing date before July 31, 2025[2] - The Senate passed a motion to proceed with the act by a vote of 51-49 on June 29, 2025[2] - If the Senate passes amendments, the act will return to the House for further consideration[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 9.83 basis points to 4.277% during the week of June 23-27, 2025[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 3.44% and 4.25%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment[3] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 2025 has been revised upward to 2.9% according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model[3] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to initiate its first rate cut in Q3 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[3] - The consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is projected to be 2.5% for Q2 2025, with slight adjustments for subsequent quarters[3] - The probability of a recession in the next year has been slightly reduced to 35% from a previous estimate of 40%[3] Group 4: Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the "Great American Beauty Act" could increase the deficit by $3.5 trillion over the next decade[4] - The act's provisions may raise the public debt ratio from 124% to between 125% and 128% over the next ten years[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflation expectations in the U.S. have decreased for the first time in 2024, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, indicating a significant shift in consumer sentiment [1][3] - The decline in inflation expectations is widespread across different demographics, with consumers feeling less pressure from rising prices, although food prices remain a concern with a projected increase of 5.5% [3][4] - The optimism in consumer sentiment is attributed to a temporary easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which has positively influenced public perception regarding future price increases [1][6] Group 2 - Employment market expectations have improved slightly, with a decrease in unemployment fears and an increase in the willingness to voluntarily leave jobs, indicating greater confidence among workers [6][8] - Personal financial outlooks have also become more positive, with an increase in the proportion of individuals able to meet minimum repayment obligations, suggesting a reduction in financial anxiety [6][8] - Recent official data supports the positive sentiment, with the PCE inflation index at 2.1%, the lowest since February 2021, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may choose to maintain current interest rates in the upcoming meeting [8]