5.克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周二表示，在对经济活动持"谨慎乐观"看法的背景下，美联储今年没 有迫切需要调整利率政策立场。鉴于可能的前景，"在利率目标区间的设定上，我们可能会维持不 变相当一段时间"。她表示，"我认为我们处于一个良好的位置，可以将联邦基金利率维持在当前 水平，观察形势如何发展"，货币政策最有可能接近既不抑制也不刺激经济活动的立场。"与其试 图对利率进行精细调整，我更倾向于在评估近期降息影响、并观察经济表现的过程中保持耐心。" 哈马克指出经济前景依然向好，但同时强调通胀仍然"过高"，并表示在今年通胀可能停留在 3% 左右的风险下，价格压力回落至关重要。在招聘方面，相关信息显示当前状况相对稳定。 6.据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 80.4%。 美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 36%，维持利率不变的概率为 58.8%，累计降息 50 个基 点的概率为 5.3%。到 6 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 49.3%。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属震荡整理。市场等待本周美国就业和通胀数据公布，对后续降息预期或造成一定影响 ...

当地时间2月10日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.1%，纳指跌0.59%，标普500指数跌0.33%。 据媒体报道，分析指出，美国2025年12月零售销售意外停滞，表明消费者在年末的支出更为谨慎。数据 显示，在13个零售类别中，有8个类别出现下降，包括服装店和家具店。汽车经销商销售额同样下滑。 与此同时，建筑材料商店和体育用品零售商的支出则有所增长。这些数据显示，在假日购物季接近尾声 时，消费者支出动能有所减弱。尽管许多经济学家预计今年的退税将支撑年初的需求，但家庭仍对高昂 的生活成本感到不满，并对就业市场的担忧持续存在。消费者支出的广度也令人担忧。股市上涨创造的 财富可能刺激需求，但有迹象表明，主要依靠温和工资增长的低收入美国人的非必需品支出不那么强 劲。 eToro的Bret Kenwell认为，这份报告"并非灾难"，但也不是建设性信号，尤其是在劳动力市场担忧仍 在，且多种资产类别持续波动的背景下。 同日公布的ADP数据显示，截至1月24日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周增加6500人。 当地时间2月10日，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，她认为当前的货币政策"处在一个良好的位 置"，可以维持 ...

Group 1 - December retail sales in the U.S. showed an unexpected 0% month-over-month change, indicating weaker-than-expected consumer support for the economy during the holiday shopping season [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales, unadjusted for inflation, fell short of the expected 0.4% increase, also lower than the 0.6% growth in November [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas stations, decreased by 0.1% month-over-month [1] Group 2 - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced a decline in sales, with clothing and furniture stores seeing year-over-year drops, while building materials and sporting goods stores reported growth [3] - The spending power of low-income households remains weak, despite rising stock markets potentially supporting high-income household spending [3] - Restaurant and bar spending, the only service category in the retail report, saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.1% after a significant increase in the previous month [3] Group 3 - Severe cold weather in late January hindered economic activity across much of the U.S., complicating the assessment of the true consumer demand fundamentals at the beginning of the year [4] - Economists expect that tax refunds early in the year will support consumer spending, with household spending projected to contribute over 2 percentage points to fourth-quarter economic growth [4] Group 4 - Recent corporate trends indicate a divergence in consumer spending patterns across different income groups, with Levi's noting no observed contraction in spending despite price increases, while PepsiCo highlighted significant budget pressures on low- to middle-income consumers [5] - Lululemon has observed a shift among U.S. consumers towards more cost-effective spending choices [5] - The retail data may be influenced by significant discounts during the holiday season, primarily reflecting goods consumption, which accounts for about one-third of total household spending in the U.S. [5]

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year. ...

受消费者支出增加以及贸易逆差收窄的推动，美国经济在第三季度（7-9 月）实现了 4.4% 的增速。其 中，企业设备投资也为这一三年来最快的经济增速贡献了力量。 责任编辑：郭明煜 美国 11 月主要制造业资本品新订单增幅超出市场预期，这一数据表明，企业在设备方面的支出于第四 季度保持了稳定的增长势头。 美国 11 月主要制造业资本品新订单增幅超出市场预期，这一数据表明，企业在设备方面的支出于第四 季度保持了稳定的增长势头。 美国商务部人口普查局于周一公布，作为衡量企业支出的关键指标，不含飞机的非国防类核心资本品订 单继 10 月增幅下修至 0.3% 后，11 月环比上涨 0.7%。 此前路透社调查的经济学家曾预测，该核心资本品订单在 10 月公布增幅为 0.5% 的基础上，11 月环比 增长 0.3%。与此同时，核心资本品出货量在 10 月增长 0.8% 后，11 月环比上涨 0.4%。 这份报告的发布曾因美国联邦政府持续 43 天的停摆而推迟。而就在此前一周，已有数据显示美国 10 月 和 11 月的消费者支出表现强劲。亚特兰大联邦储备银行预计，美国第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）年 化增长率将达到 5.4%。 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy's GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised up to an annualized 4.4%, slightly above market expectations and the previous estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [1] - This growth is attributed to strong exports and a reduction in the drag from inventory [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased by 3.5% on an annualized basis in the last quarter, with service spending reaching its fastest growth in three years and goods spending also accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 was finalized at 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating no significant increase in inflationary pressures [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, the U.S. dollar index showed little short-term volatility, currently at 98.65, while U.S. stock futures, particularly the Nasdaq 100 index futures, maintained a gain of around 0.9% [1] - Gold prices remained stable at approximately $4822.39 per ounce [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the strong economic growth, a relatively stable job market, and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target, policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - British homeware retailer Dunelm has issued a warning that a challenging macroeconomic environment and cautious consumer spending will negatively impact its annual profit, leading to a significant drop in the company's share price [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dunelm's shares experienced a notable decline following the profit warning, reflecting investor concerns about the company's financial outlook in the current economic climate [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is described as challenging, which is contributing to cautious consumer spending patterns that are expected to affect retail performance [1]

Economic Growth - The GDP report indicates an impressive nominal GDP growth of 8%, with consumer spending significantly exceeding expectations, which is unusual [1][5] - Revisions to previous monthly data for July, August, and September were substantial, leading to a reported 2.7% growth in consumer spending [2][3] - The overall GDP growth for the quarter was recorded at 4.3%, despite it being the worst quarter for employment growth since 2019, suggesting exceptional productivity growth [5] Productivity and Inflation - Strong productivity growth is noted as disinflationary, but it also implies a higher neutral interest rate, creating a complex relationship with inflation and interest rates [6] - The market's response to the GDP data has been muted, with equities moving independently and showing significant upward movement previously [8] Investment Trends - Investment in AI is expected to contribute positively to GDP growth, particularly in areas such as data centers, information processing equipment, and software, which collectively added 1 percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of the year [12][14] - However, there has been a normalization in investment levels, and while equipment investment was up 5.4%, structures investment was down 6.3% [13][14] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a pause in interest rate changes, with market expectations indicating a low probability of rate cuts in January but a higher chance in March and April [17][18] - The Fed's policy will be influenced by unemployment rates, with a focus on consumer spending trends for the holiday season, which are expected to be decent but not spectacular [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - US retail sales remained flat in October, with declines in auto dealer sales and weak gasoline revenue offsetting growth in other categories [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Overview - The total retail sales, adjusted for inflation, were essentially unchanged from the previous month, with September's data revised to a growth of 0.1% [1] - Excluding auto dealers and gas stations, sales increased by 0.5% [1] - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced growth, particularly strong performances were noted in department stores and online retailers [1] Group 2: Specific Sales Trends - Auto sales decreased by 1.6%, partly due to the expiration of federal tax incentives for electric vehicles [1] - Gasoline prices fell, which negatively impacted sales at gas stations [1] - The control group sales, which excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations, grew by 0.8%, marking the largest increase in four months [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - Early in the holiday shopping season, consumer spending showed signs of improvement [1] - Despite concerns over employment and dissatisfaction with high living costs, consumers are still seeking discounted products [1] - Recent spending growth is primarily driven by wealthier households, while lower-income Americans remain cautious [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that current data suggests no change in the economic outlook, with a gradually cooling labor market, persistently high inflation levels, and robust consumer spending [1] Group 1 - The labor market appears to be gradually cooling [1] - Inflation levels remain elevated [1] - Consumer spending continues to be strong [1]