格隆汇8月20日｜美股连续第四日走低，投资者在零售业绩密集披露和央行年会即将召开之际，对高企 的估值产生质疑。标普500指数下跌0.7%，纳指跌逾1%。"与基本面相比，股票估值很昂贵。"橡树资本 管理公司联席董事长霍华德·马克斯在接受采访时表示。"市场已经16年没有出现过严重的调整，人们逐 渐习惯于不去考虑市场修正。"阿波罗管理首席经济学家Torsten Slok在周三报告中指出："消费者支出正 承压，原因包括就业增长放缓、学生贷款还款恢复以及驱逐出境人数增加导致消费群体减少。" ...

Group 1 - The US retail sales data for July showed a stable growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating a positive consumer spending trend despite concerns over tariffs and rising import prices [1][2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated the third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, with an upward revision of personal consumption expenditure growth from 2.0% to 2.2% for the July to September period [2] - The increase in retail sales alleviated concerns about economic stagnation following three months of weak employment data, although the impact of tariffs on prices remains a concern for future monetary policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The July import price index rose by 0.4%, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating that tariffs are exerting cost pressure on imported goods [2] - The consumer confidence index dropped for the first time since April, with the University of Michigan's index falling from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting concerns over rising inflation [2] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although there are concerns that tariffs have not yet fully impacted consumer prices [3]

美国7月零售销售环比增长0.5%，这已是连续第二个月零售销售出现大幅增长，同比涨幅达到3.9%。6月数据大幅上修至0.9%。 经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长1.2%，连续第十个月实现正增长，显示消费者支出保持韧性。尽管软性调查数据对消费者信心表示担忧， 但消费者仍在持续购买。 15日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 美国7月零售销售环比增0.5%，预期增0.6%，前值从增0.6%修正为增0.9%。 美国7月零售销售(除汽车)环比增0.3%，预期增0.3%，前值从增0.5%修正为增0.8%。 美国7月零售销售(除汽车与汽油)环比增0.2%，预期增0.3%，前值从增0.6%修正为增0.8%。 所谓的"控制组"销售——纳入政府GDP商品支出计算的指标——7月环比增长0.5%，超出预期的0.4%，前值也获得上修。该指标排除了餐饮服务、 汽车经销商、建材商店和加油站。 美国7月零售销售广泛反弹 7月零售销售数据显示消费活动的广泛改善。未经通胀调整的零售销售环比增0.5%，略低于预期的0.6%，但6月数据从此前公布的0.6%上修至 0.9%。剔除汽车销售后，7月销售增长0.3%，符合市场预期。 13个类别中有9个录得增长 ...

美国7月零售销售环比增长0.5%，这已是连续第二个月零售销售出现大幅增长，同比涨幅达到3.9%。6月数据大幅上修至0.9%。 美国7月零售销售广泛反弹 经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长1.2%，连续第十个月实现正增长，显示消费者支出保持韧性。尽管软性调查数据对消费者信心表示担忧，但消 费者仍在持续购买。 15日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 7月零售销售数据显示消费活动的广泛改善。未经通胀调整的零售销售环比增0.5%，略低于预期的0.6%，但6月数据从此前公布的0.6%上修至0.9%。剔 除汽车销售后，7月销售增长0.3%，符合市场预期。 13个类别中有9个录得增长，汽车销售领涨各个类别，录得3月以来最大增幅。在线零售商和综合商品店销售也实现增长，可能受益于亚马逊延长的 Prime Day、沃尔玛为期一周的"优惠"活动以及Target类似促销活动的推动。家具、体育用品等录得稳健增长的几个类别在当月也出现了一些价格上涨。 美国7月零售销售环比增0.5%，预期增0.6%，前值从增0.6%修正为增0.9%。 美国7月零售销售(除汽车)环比增0.3%，预期增0.3%，前值从增0.5%修正为增0.8%。 美国7月零售销 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weyco Group, Inc. has faced significant challenges in its recent earnings report, with declines in both sales and earnings attributed to economic uncertainty and increased tariffs [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a second-quarter 2025 EPS of 24 cents, down from 59 cents in the prior-year quarter [1]. - Net sales decreased by 9% to $58.2 million from $63.9 million year-over-year [2]. - Net earnings fell 60% to $2.3 million compared to $5.6 million in the same quarter last year [2]. - Gross earnings as a percentage of net sales declined to 43.3% from 43.9% [2]. Segment Performance - In the North American Wholesale segment, sales dropped 9% to $45.6 million, with major brands like Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, Florsheim, and BOGS experiencing declines of 11%, 10%, 5%, and 14% respectively [3]. - Retail sales fell 11% to $6.8 million, driven by weaker demand on Florsheim and Stacy Adams websites [3]. - The "Other" category, which includes operations in Australia and South Africa, saw a 4% sales decline to $5.8 million, resulting in an operating loss of $0.2 million [3]. Management Commentary - The CEO described the quarter as facing "headwinds" from tariffs and reduced consumer spending, with expectations of continued economic uncertainty [4]. - Management highlighted the company's strong financial position, which they believe will support long-term growth despite current challenges [4]. - Efforts to diversify sourcing away from China to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and India were emphasized [4]. Influencing Factors - The earnings decline was primarily due to reduced consumer spending and higher import costs from tariffs, with the China-specific tariff peaking at 145% in April 2025 [5]. - Weyco has taken measures to mitigate cost pressures, including pre-purchasing inventory and negotiating supplier cost reductions [5]. Guidance - Management anticipates ongoing top-line pressure in the coming months due to tariffs and weak consumer sentiment, with potential seasonal softness in casual and dress footwear [6]. Other Developments - On August 5, 2025, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of 27 cents per share, payable on September 30, 2025 [7]. - The company allocated $3.1 million for share repurchases and approximately $0.7 million for capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI warn that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high market valuations, rising inflation, slowing job growth, and weak consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically poor-performing months for the S&P 500 index [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for the S&P 500 has exceeded 70, suggesting that the market may be "overheated" [1] Group 2: Options Market Insights - The cost of hedging against a market downturn is increasing, with the implied volatility premium for put options reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [1]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with the highest price at 998 CNY/gram and the lowest at 969 CNY/gram, maintaining a price difference of 29 CNY/gram [1] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufu, and Zhou Dafu have reported stable prices, while Zhou Shengsheng and Lao Fengxiang have seen slight increases of 4 CNY and 1 CNY respectively [3][4] - The gold recovery price has seen a slight increase of 1.5 CNY/gram, with significant price differences among brands [4] Group 2 - International gold prices showed an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3314.65 USD/ounce before closing at 3289.02 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.42% [6] - The rise in gold prices was influenced by concerns over changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the increase of tariffs on Canada to 35% [6] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are low, with only 41.2% anticipating a reduction, which may limit gold price increases [6]

Core Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to a year-high in June, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating limited progress in inflation relief over the past year [1][4] - Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, showed minimal recovery after a decline in May, reflecting a stagnant economic environment [1][5] Divergence in Economic Indicators - Economic data reveals a tug-of-war: while inflation is stagnating, concerns over Trump's tariff policies potentially raising prices are growing, alongside a weak labor market leading to reduced consumer spending [2][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its fifth consecutive meeting, with two members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy [4] Consumer Behavior and Spending Trends - Consumer spending has shown the weakest growth since the pandemic, with June's recovery primarily driven by a rebound in non-durable goods, while durable goods purchases have declined for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2021 [5] - The root of consumer weakness is attributed to a cooling labor market, with real disposable income remaining flat after a decline in May and wage growth nearly stagnant [9] Inflation Drivers and Future Outlook - June's price increases were mainly driven by home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, reflecting the impact of import tariffs on consumer prices [9] - Economists warn of potential upward pressure on inflation due to a new round of tariffs expected to be announced by Trump, alongside sustained high levels of key PCE components [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S., highlighting that while consumer confidence has shown signs of recovery, the long-term effects of tariffs are likely to lead to increased inflation pressure as pre-tariff inventories are depleted [1][8]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose to 61.8 in July, marking a 5-month high, but remains 16% lower than before the Trump administration [1]. - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, while consumer spending on debit and credit cards grew by 7% and 4% respectively in Q2 compared to the previous year [4][5]. - Despite these positive indicators, Wells Fargo warns that consumer spending is not as robust as previously thought, with households reducing discretionary service spending [4][5]. Group 2: Discretionary Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has shown a concerning decline, with a 0.3% drop noted in May, and a contribution of only 0.3 percentage points to GDP in the first quarter, the lowest since Q2 2020 [5][7]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for essential goods over discretionary items, as evidenced by shopping behavior during Amazon's Prime Day, where essential items were prioritized [6][7]. Group 3: Tariff Policy Effects - The effective tariff rate currently stands at 20.6%, the highest since 1910, yet inflation data does not reflect significant price increases due to tariffs [8][9]. - Key factors mitigating the impact of tariffs include declining energy prices and the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, which has kept inflation in a downward trend [8][10]. - Import behavior has shifted, with a significant increase in imports prior to tariff implementation, leading to a stockpiling effect that has buffered immediate price impacts [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow, with various economic indicators showing mixed performance and a general contraction trend [2][10]. - Low-income households are particularly vulnerable, as they are quickly exhausting pandemic savings and facing rising debt levels, which could lead to a significant impact on overall consumer spending [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market showed stable performance with major indices entering a consolidation phase after consecutive gains, driven by strong economic data and corporate earnings, despite rising concerns over potential tariffs on EU goods [1][3]. Economic Data - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey indicated a significant drop in short-term inflation expectations, with one-year inflation expectations falling from 5% in June to 4.4% in July, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [2]. - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, signaling a healthy job market, following a period of increased claims earlier in the spring [6][7]. Corporate Earnings - Netflix reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations but failed to excite the market, leading to a decline in its stock price due to high valuation concerns [4]. - American Express delivered strong earnings, indicating robust spending among high-end consumers, which supports the overall economy [5]. Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached historical closing highs, bolstered by strong economic data and corporate earnings, while concerns over tariff policies temporarily eased consumer confidence worries [3][4]. - Despite the positive economic indicators, uncertainties remain regarding trade policies and the potential impact on market stability, particularly with the looming decision on tariffs against EU imports [4][7].