Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Gold and Silver on February 11, 2026, provided by the Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute [1][2] 1. Market Data Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 1123.96 and 1121.22 respectively, down 0.43% and 0.42% from the previous day. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 19711 and 20284 respectively, down 2.30% and 2.82% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 51266 and 218097 respectively, and the open interests were 90218 and 156910 respectively. The trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 305042 and 611557 respectively, and the open interests were 132072 and 216295 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were -6.56 and -3.82 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were -443 and -1016 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 1117.40, down 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of London Gold was 5027.66, down 0.62%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 19268, down 1.20%. The closing price of London Silver was 80.75, down 3.14% [2] Inventory - **Domestic and Overseas**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver were 105,072 kg and 323,368 kg respectively, with an increase of 1020 kg and 4822 kg. The inventories of COMEX gold and silver were 35,229,811 and 386,273,025 troy ounces respectively, with a decrease of 64302 and 4192982 troy ounces [2] Related Derivatives and Indicators - **ETF and CFTC Data**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1079 tons and 16216 tons respectively, with a change of 0 and an increase of 25 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 165,604 and 25,877 respectively, with a decrease of 39792 and an increase of 2174 [2] - **Related Indexes**: The US dollar index was 96.86 (unchanged), the S&P 500 index was 6941.81 (down 23.01), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16% (down 0.06%), Brent crude oil was 69.10 (down 0.04), and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9129 (down 0.0155) [2] 2. Macro News - **US Retail Sales**: US retail sales in December were unexpectedly stagnant, indicating more cautious consumer spending at the end of the year. After a 0.6% increase in November, unadjusted retail sales were basically flat. 8 out of 13 retail categories declined, while spending at building material stores and sports goods retailers increased [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump said that the US interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower than the current level and that Iran will not have nuclear weapons or missiles [3] - **Fed Officials' Views**: Fed's Logan is "cautiously optimistic" about the current policy rate achieving the inflation target while maintaining employment stability. However, she is more worried about persistent high inflation. Cleveland Fed President Harker believes there is no urgent need to adjust the interest rate policy this year and that the Fed may keep the federal funds rate unchanged for a long time. Inflation is still "too high" [4][5] - **Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March is 19.6%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 80.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 36%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 58.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 5.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 49.3% [5] 3. Comments and Strategies - **Market Outlook**: Precious metals are in a volatile consolidation. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data this week, which may affect the subsequent rate - cut expectations. Previously, precious metals experienced a sharp shock. Since January, precious metals have risen rapidly, and the volatility is at a high level. The nomination of Warsh triggered a rise in the US dollar index, leading to a large amount of profit - taking [6] - **Long - term View**: In the long term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain unchanged. The Chinese central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month. After the market is fully adjusted and new positive factors accumulate, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel [6] - **Investment Advice**: Due to the higher volatility of silver and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.59%, and the S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Oracle rising over 2% and Tesla over 1%, while Google and Broadcom fell over 1% [1] - The hotel and travel sectors saw significant gains, with Marriott up over 8% and Hilton up over 3% [1] - Storage and cryptocurrency stocks experienced notable declines, with Western Digital down over 8% and Coinbase down over 2% [1] - The Livermore Chinese concept stock index rose 1.07%, with notable gains from AutoHome (over 4%) and Tencent Music (over 3%) [1] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for December 2025 were flat, missing expectations of a 0.4% increase, with prior values at 0.6% [5] - The export price index for December 2025 increased by 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.1%, while the import price index also rose by 0.1%, matching expectations [5] - Analysis indicates that the stagnation in retail sales suggests consumers are being more cautious with spending, with declines in 8 out of 13 retail categories [6] - Despite expectations of tax refunds supporting early-year demand, concerns about high living costs and job market uncertainties persist among consumers [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% last month, following three consecutive rate cuts in the previous autumn [7] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is in a good position to keep rates unchanged for an extended period [6]

Group 1 - December retail sales in the U.S. showed an unexpected 0% month-over-month change, indicating weaker-than-expected consumer support for the economy during the holiday shopping season [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales, unadjusted for inflation, fell short of the expected 0.4% increase, also lower than the 0.6% growth in November [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas stations, decreased by 0.1% month-over-month [1] Group 2 - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced a decline in sales, with clothing and furniture stores seeing year-over-year drops, while building materials and sporting goods stores reported growth [3] - The spending power of low-income households remains weak, despite rising stock markets potentially supporting high-income household spending [3] - Restaurant and bar spending, the only service category in the retail report, saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.1% after a significant increase in the previous month [3] Group 3 - Severe cold weather in late January hindered economic activity across much of the U.S., complicating the assessment of the true consumer demand fundamentals at the beginning of the year [4] - Economists expect that tax refunds early in the year will support consumer spending, with household spending projected to contribute over 2 percentage points to fourth-quarter economic growth [4] Group 4 - Recent corporate trends indicate a divergence in consumer spending patterns across different income groups, with Levi's noting no observed contraction in spending despite price increases, while PepsiCo highlighted significant budget pressures on low- to middle-income consumers [5] - Lululemon has observed a shift among U.S. consumers towards more cost-effective spending choices [5] - The retail data may be influenced by significant discounts during the holiday season, primarily reflecting goods consumption, which accounts for about one-third of total household spending in the U.S. [5]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. retail sales remained unchanged in December, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending and overall economic growth as the new year begins [1] Group 1 - The unchanged retail sales suggest that consumer confidence may be waning, which could impact future spending patterns [1] - This stagnation in retail sales may lead to a reevaluation of economic forecasts for the upcoming year [1] - The lack of growth in December retail sales contrasts with previous expectations of an increase, highlighting potential challenges for the economy [1]

Core Insights - The increase in new orders for core capital goods in November exceeded market expectations, indicating stable growth in business spending on equipment for the fourth quarter [1][2] Summary by Categories Economic Indicators - The U.S. Census Bureau reported that non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose by 0.7% month-over-month in November, following a downward revision of October's increase to 0.3% [1][2] - Core capital goods shipments increased by 0.4% in November after a 0.8% rise in October [1][2] Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - Prior data indicated strong consumer spending in October and November, contributing to an anticipated annualized GDP growth rate of 5.4% for the fourth quarter, as projected by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank [1][2] - The U.S. economy achieved a growth rate of 4.4% in the third quarter (July-September), driven by increased consumer spending and a narrowing trade deficit, with business equipment investment playing a significant role in this growth [1][2]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy's GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised up to an annualized 4.4%, slightly above market expectations and the previous estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [1] - This growth is attributed to strong exports and a reduction in the drag from inventory [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased by 3.5% on an annualized basis in the last quarter, with service spending reaching its fastest growth in three years and goods spending also accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 was finalized at 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating no significant increase in inflationary pressures [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, the U.S. dollar index showed little short-term volatility, currently at 98.65, while U.S. stock futures, particularly the Nasdaq 100 index futures, maintained a gain of around 0.9% [1] - Gold prices remained stable at approximately $4822.39 per ounce [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the strong economic growth, a relatively stable job market, and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target, policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - British homeware retailer Dunelm has issued a warning that a challenging macroeconomic environment and cautious consumer spending will negatively impact its annual profit, leading to a significant drop in the company's share price [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dunelm's shares experienced a notable decline following the profit warning, reflecting investor concerns about the company's financial outlook in the current economic climate [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is described as challenging, which is contributing to cautious consumer spending patterns that are expected to affect retail performance [1]

Economic Growth - The GDP report indicates an impressive nominal GDP growth of 8%, with consumer spending significantly exceeding expectations, which is unusual [1][5] - Revisions to previous monthly data for July, August, and September were substantial, leading to a reported 2.7% growth in consumer spending [2][3] - The overall GDP growth for the quarter was recorded at 4.3%, despite it being the worst quarter for employment growth since 2019, suggesting exceptional productivity growth [5] Productivity and Inflation - Strong productivity growth is noted as disinflationary, but it also implies a higher neutral interest rate, creating a complex relationship with inflation and interest rates [6] - The market's response to the GDP data has been muted, with equities moving independently and showing significant upward movement previously [8] Investment Trends - Investment in AI is expected to contribute positively to GDP growth, particularly in areas such as data centers, information processing equipment, and software, which collectively added 1 percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of the year [12][14] - However, there has been a normalization in investment levels, and while equipment investment was up 5.4%, structures investment was down 6.3% [13][14] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a pause in interest rate changes, with market expectations indicating a low probability of rate cuts in January but a higher chance in March and April [17][18] - The Fed's policy will be influenced by unemployment rates, with a focus on consumer spending trends for the holiday season, which are expected to be decent but not spectacular [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - US retail sales remained flat in October, with declines in auto dealer sales and weak gasoline revenue offsetting growth in other categories [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Overview - The total retail sales, adjusted for inflation, were essentially unchanged from the previous month, with September's data revised to a growth of 0.1% [1] - Excluding auto dealers and gas stations, sales increased by 0.5% [1] - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced growth, particularly strong performances were noted in department stores and online retailers [1] Group 2: Specific Sales Trends - Auto sales decreased by 1.6%, partly due to the expiration of federal tax incentives for electric vehicles [1] - Gasoline prices fell, which negatively impacted sales at gas stations [1] - The control group sales, which excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations, grew by 0.8%, marking the largest increase in four months [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - Early in the holiday shopping season, consumer spending showed signs of improvement [1] - Despite concerns over employment and dissatisfaction with high living costs, consumers are still seeking discounted products [1] - Recent spending growth is primarily driven by wealthier households, while lower-income Americans remain cautious [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that current data suggests no change in the economic outlook, with a gradually cooling labor market, persistently high inflation levels, and robust consumer spending [1] Group 1 - The labor market appears to be gradually cooling [1] - Inflation levels remain elevated [1] - Consumer spending continues to be strong [1]