智通财经APP获悉，美国零售联合会(NRF)预测，尽管经济形势不明朗且物价上涨，美国消费者本假日 购物季的支出预计仍将超过去年。该机构周四发布的2025年预测显示，11月至12月期间消费者总支出将 在1.01万亿至1.02万亿美元之间，较去年增长3.7%至4.2%。这将是美国历史上首个假日零售额突破万亿 美元的购物季。该机构数据显示，去年假日季零售总额为9760亿美元。 尽管消费者信心受挫，但美国的消费者支出依然保持韧性。 NRF首席经济学家兼研究执行董事Mark Matthews表示，消费者行为正在发生变化，他们更注重寻找优 惠商品。该机构高管还指出，家庭外出就餐的频率正在下降。 "我们看到消费者的行为和参与度都非常积极，"NRF总裁兼首席执行官Matthew Shay周四在电话会议上 表示，"说实话，这多少有些出乎意料。" 但Shay也指出，越来越多的美国人变得更加挑剔，他们更关注折扣商品。尽管支出预计将再次增长，但 增速可能有所放缓。 即便如此，这一增速仍高于2010年至2019年期间3.6%的平均水平。NRF数据显示，新冠疫情期间，美 国人的支出大幅增加，2020年假日季销售额增长8.9%，2021年 ...

Core Insights - Consumer spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth momentum [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of consumer expenditure in sustaining economic growth [1]

Core Insights - The consumer sector has shown surprising resilience over the past five years, but recent data indicates potential cracks in consumer spending behavior, particularly among higher-income groups [2][4][11] Consumer Behavior - The New York Fed survey indicates that expectations regarding income after inflation are deteriorating most significantly among high-income consumers, while lower-income consumers are already under stress [3][4] - Spending on services, which typically remains stable, is beginning to decline, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending habits [8][10] - Despite the cautious sentiment, higher-income consumers have been sustaining their spending, but they are starting to notice economic changes and adjust their behaviors accordingly [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Given the current consumer sentiment and spending trends, the outlook for consumer discretionary investments appears less bullish, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies [13][14] - Financials may benefit from a potential economic downturn or interest rate cuts, as they typically perform well in volatile market conditions [14][18] - Caution is advised in sectors like housing, where buying activity is low despite ongoing discussions about housing shortages [15]

Core Insights - Consumer spending has shown a slight decline in recent weeks according to the Federal Reserve's survey [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's survey indicates a decrease in consumer spending [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that recent economic activity in the U.S. has remained relatively unchanged, with overall employment levels stable [1] - Consumer spending has slightly declined, while prices continue to rise, with several Federal Reserve districts reporting an acceleration in input cost increases [1] - The report highlights that cost increases driven by tariffs have been reported across many districts, but the extent to which these higher costs are passed on to final prices varies [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity in the U.S. has not shown significant changes in recent weeks [1] - Employment levels are reported to be stable overall [1] Consumer Spending - There has been a slight decline in overall consumer spending [1] Price Trends - Prices are continuing to rise, with several districts noting an increase in input costs [1] - The transmission of higher input costs to final prices varies across different regions [1] Tariff Impact - Input cost increases attributed to tariffs have been reported in many Federal Reserve districts [1]

Core Insights - MGM Resorts stock has declined by 18% over the past year, contrasting with an 18% increase in the S&P 500, despite appearing undervalued based on various financial multiples [2][3] - The company's reliance on consumer spending and high debt levels pose significant risks, complicating its investment appeal [3][5] Financial Performance - MGM's revenue increased by only 0.9% over the past year to $17 billion, with quarterly revenue rising just 1.8% to $4.4 billion [5] - Operating income for the past twelve months was $1.5 billion, resulting in an 8.6% margin, while net income stands at $540 million (3.1%) [5] - Cash flow margin is at 14.7%, significantly below industry peers [5] Debt and Leverage - MGM's heavily leveraged balance sheet limits its flexibility, making it vulnerable in a rising-rate environment or during travel downturns [6][12] - The company lacks the financial buffer that more conservatively financed competitors possess [6] Historical Context - MGM's stock has shown profound vulnerability during economic downturns, with a 46% drop during the 2022 inflation crisis and a 79% decline during the 2020 pandemic [6] - The stock has not regained its pre-crisis high from the 2008 financial crisis, which saw a 98% drop compared to a 57% decline in the S&P 500 [6] Risk Factors - MGM's cyclical characteristics and financial setup indicate significant downside risk if the economy falters, particularly with rising interest rates affecting debt management [9][10] - The company's recovery relies on the growth of the global leisure market and sustained consumer confidence, which is precarious [10] Key Vulnerabilities - High debt load means small disruptions in cash flow could hinder MGM's ability to meet obligations [12] - Revenues are highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, with declines in travel and consumer spending having disproportionate impacts [12] - Narrow profit margins provide little cushion to withstand shocks or invest in expansion [12]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 13th day, significantly impacting the economy and the lives of citizens, as stated by Treasury Secretary Becerra [1][3] - The ongoing political stalemate between the two parties has left the public as the primary victims of the shutdown [1][6] Economic Impact - The shutdown is affecting the real economy and the daily lives of citizens, with federal employees and service agency staff facing wage suspensions [3] - Federal assistance to farmers has been halted, and small businesses are experiencing delays in loan approvals [3][4] - The shutdown is causing increased airport delays due to unpaid air traffic controllers, leading to operational bottlenecks even in open government departments [3] Political Stalemate - The Senate is set to vote on a temporary funding bill, but both parties continue to blame each other for the impasse, with no clear resolution in sight [6] - Republican House Speaker Johnson criticized the Democrats for causing essential services to stagnate, while Democratic leaders expressed willingness to negotiate but distrust towards Republicans [6] - Historical research indicates that parties using government shutdowns as leverage often face backlash from public opinion, suggesting that neither party will emerge as a true winner in this situation [6]

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve's survey indicates increasing consumer concern regarding financial conditions due to anticipated inflation rise [2][3] - Consumer spending growth expectations have declined, although many Americans have not significantly altered their spending habits [3] Consumer Sentiment - Consumers expect higher inflation over the next year, leading to a pessimistic outlook on their financial situation [2] - The rising cost of groceries, with a 2.7% year-over-year increase in August, is significantly impacting consumer perceptions of the economy [3] Spending Behavior - Despite concerns over rising prices and tariffs, consumer spending is expected to increase during the holiday season, driven by selective spending strategies [3] - The psychological aspect of spending is highlighted, with consumers navigating complex uncertainties while being cautious with their expenditures [3] Debt Trends - A separate study by the New York Federal Reserve shows a rise in credit card balances, indicating that more consumers are struggling to manage their expenses [3] - As of Q2 2025, total credit card balances reached $1.21 trillion, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter and matching last year's historical high [3]

Core Points - The White House Economic Council warns that a prolonged government shutdown could lead to severe economic consequences, estimating a loss of $15 billion in GDP for each week of shutdown [1][2] - If the shutdown lasts for a month, an additional 43,000 people could lose their jobs, not accounting for the 1.9 million federal employees who are either furloughed or working without pay [1] - Consumer spending is projected to decrease by $30 billion over a month of shutdown, with half of this impact directly affecting federal employees and the other half stemming from spillover effects on other industries [1] Economic Impact - Each week of government shutdown could result in a GDP loss of $15 billion [1] - A month-long shutdown could lead to a total job loss of 43,000, in addition to the 1.9 million federal employees affected [1] - Consumer spending could decline by $30 billion over a month, with significant implications for various sectors [1] Legislative Context - The government shutdown occurred due to a failure in the Senate to pass a temporary funding bill, primarily due to disagreements over healthcare-related benefits [1] - The shutdown began at midnight on October 1, marking the first such event in nearly seven years [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: September 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices have started a new upward trend, which may last until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Due to the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, both gold and silver are expected to rise, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to its high volatility. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays and numerous key data events, the volatility of precious metals may increase, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The risk of the US government shutdown caused the US dollar index to decline for two consecutive days, falling below the 98 mark. News of potential US drone strikes in Venezuela increased risk - aversion demand. London gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark, and London silver reached $47.2 per ounce. Gold prices had a sideways consolidation from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have boosted gold prices since early September, starting a new upward trend. This week, attention should be paid to global September PMI, US September non - farm payrolls, and the progress of the US congressional game. With the approaching holidays, investors should reduce positions to avoid risks [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest over - valuation. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provided safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors drove the gold price to break through $3,500 per ounce. The new upward trend is expected to last until the spring and summer of 2026. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise with gold and may outperform gold in terms of gains [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced new import tariffs on October 1, including a 100% tariff on patented drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, breaking the relatively calm trade situation and causing new uncertainties [17] - US consumer spending in August increased slightly more than expected, with a 0.6% increase. Personal income rose 0.4%, and the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year [17] - Fed's regulatory vice - chair Bowman reiterated the need for decisive interest - rate cuts and supported balance - sheet reduction and adjustment of the standing repurchase mechanism. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes the risks of a significant increase in unemployment or inflation are limited [18] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its October 5 meeting, but the final decision is yet to be made [18]