Okay, let's uh let's keep doing this, Steve. It's it's pretty interesting. For more on all this data, I want to bring in uh Hyundai Yuba Yuva, uh senior US economist at BFA Securities.You're sitting there with Steve. What do you what do you what do you think of what you just heard. >> I think this is a very very impressive GDP report.As Steve correctly pointed out, 8% essentially nominal GDP growth. Consumer spending really beat expectations. This is pretty unusual.I mean we had the monthly data for July, A ...

格隆汇12月16日｜美国10月零售销售基本持平，汽车经销商销售额下降和汽油收入疲软抵消了其他品类 支出的增长。美国商务部报告显示，未经通胀调整的零售销售总额与上月基本持平，9月数据修正后为 增长0.1%。若剔除汽车经销商和加油站，销售额增长0.5%。在13个零售品类中，有8个品类实现增长， 其中百货商店和线上零售商的销售表现尤为强劲。汽车销售额下降1.6%，部分原因是联邦政府对电动 汽车的税收优惠政策到期。汽油价格下跌则抑制了加油站的销售额。控制组的销售额在10月增长 0.8%，为四个月来最大增幅。该指标不包括食品服务、汽车经销商、建材商店和加油站。数据显示， 在假日购物季初期，消费者支出有所升温。尽管许多消费者对就业状况感到担忧，并对高生活成本感到 不满，但他们仍在寻找优惠商品。近期消费增长主要来自较富裕家庭，而预算紧张的较低收入美国人仍 保持谨慎态度。 ...

人民财讯12月11日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现有数据表明前景未变。劳动力市场似乎正在逐渐降 温，通胀水平仍然偏高，消费者支出依然稳健。 ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that consumer spending remains robust and business fixed investment is expanding [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending is described as steady, suggesting a positive outlook for retail and consumer goods sectors [1] - Business fixed investment is noted to be on the rise, which may indicate growth opportunities in capital goods and industrial sectors [1]

Group 1 - British consumers were cautious with their spending in November, influenced by the anticipation of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget [1] - Retailers reported disappointing sales during Black Friday, indicating a potential decline in consumer confidence [1]

尽管如此，更近的假日销售数据显示需求仍具韧性。万事达SpendingPulse的数据显示，今年黑色星期五 （不含汽车经销商）销售同比增长4.1%，高于去年的3.4%。不过，这一增长更多来自高收入群体，而 普通消费者在就业市场前景趋弱及物价高企下愈发谨慎。 消费者情绪在12月初出现五个月来的首次回升。密歇根大学的初值指数从11月的51升至53.3，高于经济 学家预测中值52，反映出家庭对未来个人财务状况更为乐观。消费者预计未来一年价格上涨4.1%，为 今年1月以来最低；未来五到十年通胀预期下降至3.2%。虽然预期有所改善，消费者仍普遍对生活成本 的持续高企感到压力。 劳动力市场的不安感仍在升温。调查显示，超过半数就业者担心失业，近半数认为若失业，找到同等质 量的工作需四个月或更久。大型企业的裁员公告增多，使得对未来就业的担忧情绪更为明显。尽管就业 预期指标升至四个月高点，但当前状况指数却跌至纪录新低。 智通财经APP获悉，最新数据显示，美国9月消费者支出几乎停滞，显示在顽固通胀的压力下，美国民 众在政府停摆前已显露疲态。美国经济分析局（BEA）公布的数据显示，经通胀调整后的个人消费支出 （PCE）在9月几乎没有 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed little change in September, with prices rising 0.3% from August, the same increase as the previous month [1] - Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in September, matching the previous month's pace, which would align inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target if sustained [2] - Overall prices increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly up from 2.7% in August, while core prices also rose 2.8%, a small decline from 2.9% the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - The data suggests muted core inflation in September, supporting the case for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming meeting [3] - Despite inflation being above the 2% target, weak hiring and modest economic growth are expected to gradually reduce price gains in the coming months [3] - Consumer spending grew by 0.3% in September, a decrease from 0.5% in August, indicating that Americans are still willing to spend despite high prices and stagnant hiring [6] Consumer Behavior - Recent data indicates an increase in consumer spending during Black Friday and the following weekend, with online spending rising by 7.7% compared to the same period last year [7] - Incomes rose by 0.4% in September for the second consecutive month, contributing to consumer spending capacity [8]

日本政府5日公布的数据显示，日本10月消费者支出以近两年来最快速度下滑，给日本经济前景蒙上阴 影。日本总务省数据显示，该国10月消费者支出同比下降3.0%，为6个月来首次下降，也是2024年1月 以来最大降幅。这一表现远逊于此前增长1.0%的市场预期中值。数据同样显示，经季节性调整后，日 本10月支出环比下降3.5%，而市场预估为增长0.7%。按路透社说法，该指标将成为日本中央银行在决 定是否于12月加息时仔细权衡的因素之一。此前，日本央行行长植田和男暗示12月晚些时候可能加息。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity has not changed significantly since the last report, with two districts noting a moderate decline and one district reporting moderate growth [1] - Consumer spending has decreased overall, although high-end retail spending remains resilient [1] - Some retailers have reported that the government shutdown has negatively impacted consumer purchasing behavior [1] - Following the expiration of federal tax credits, auto dealers have reported a decline in electric vehicle (EV) sales [1] - The tourism industry has shown little change in recent weeks, with some contacts noting that consumers are cautious about non-essential spending [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美国零售联合会(NRF)预测，尽管经济形势不明朗且物价上涨，美国消费者本假日 购物季的支出预计仍将超过去年。该机构周四发布的2025年预测显示，11月至12月期间消费者总支出将 在1.01万亿至1.02万亿美元之间，较去年增长3.7%至4.2%。这将是美国历史上首个假日零售额突破万亿 美元的购物季。该机构数据显示，去年假日季零售总额为9760亿美元。 尽管消费者信心受挫，但美国的消费者支出依然保持韧性。 NRF首席经济学家兼研究执行董事Mark Matthews表示，消费者行为正在发生变化，他们更注重寻找优 惠商品。该机构高管还指出，家庭外出就餐的频率正在下降。 "我们看到消费者的行为和参与度都非常积极，"NRF总裁兼首席执行官Matthew Shay周四在电话会议上 表示，"说实话，这多少有些出乎意料。" 但Shay也指出，越来越多的美国人变得更加挑剔，他们更关注折扣商品。尽管支出预计将再次增长，但 增速可能有所放缓。 即便如此，这一增速仍高于2010年至2019年期间3.6%的平均水平。NRF数据显示，新冠疫情期间，美 国人的支出大幅增加，2020年假日季销售额增长8.9%，2021年 ...