Group 1: Report Summary - The report predicts the price range of polypropylene (PP) for the month to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 13.3% over 3 years [1] - It provides hedging strategies for inventory and procurement management, including using futures and options contracts [1] - The core contradiction is that the PP market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, limiting its upward space. The supply pressure is high due to expected decline in planned maintenance and upcoming new installations, while demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and poor downstream profits [2] - There are some利多 factors such as high - level ongoing device maintenance leading to marginal supply reduction and the current low - level of the market limiting its downward space [3] - There are also利空 factors including new installations during the Dragon Boat Festival and more in 6 - 8 months, a decline in exports after the seasonal peak, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season and poor profits [4] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main basis on 2025 - 06 - 10 was 139 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 21 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 27 yuan/ton. PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also had corresponding price changes [1][5] - The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads had specific values and daily/weekly changes [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different changes on 2025 - 06 - 10 compared to previous days, and regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products (e.g., homopolymer injection - molding to wire - drawing) had various daily and weekly changes [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US propane price, Northwest coal price, and East China methanol price had different changes. Different PP production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) had corresponding profit changes [7]

聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7100 | 10.33% | 15.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 聚丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空聚丙烯期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7050-7 100 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚丙烯价 格上 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Previously, the market had strong expectations that tariff policies would force PDH plants to shut down, which strongly supported PP. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the propane supply problem will be resolved, PP supply will no longer be restricted, and the previous support will disappear. The upside space of PP in this rebound is expected to be limited [2]. 3) Detailed Summaries Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 110 - 130 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Spread**: On May 13, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day and 99 yuan/ton from the previous week). PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased. The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads also changed [1][3]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: In different regions, spot prices showed slight daily and weekly changes. The differences between regions also changed [3][5][6]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spread**: The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed daily and weekly [6]. - **Upstream Price and Processing Profit**: Brent crude oil, US propane, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of different production methods such as oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based also changed [6]. Core Contradictions and Factors - **Lack of Upward Momentum**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns has decreased, weakening the support for PP prices. The upside space in the rebound is limited [2][3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Positive factors include high PP maintenance volume reducing supply and a neutral inventory level with low pressure. Negative factors are the weakening downstream demand and the planned commissioning of multiple plants in the second and third quarters, increasing supply pressure [2][5]