聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年10月23日 分析师 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 助理分析师 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 成本端，原油和焦煤的双重拉涨，带动化工板块总体回升。首先是由于近日地缘问题再度升温，带动原 油触底反弹。一方面是美国与委内瑞拉关系持续紧张，另一方面是美国对俄罗斯石油公司的制裁升级，消息 面的多重扰动促使油价大幅上涨。另外，焦煤也因受到部分地区减产以及蒙煤通关量减少等供应端消息影 响，呈现出强势上行的态势。 供需端，供给方面，PP近期装置以外停车的情况增多，内蒙宝丰由于上游合成压缩机检修，PP一条线 （50万吨）预计停车10天，另外大榭石化由于上游技改，二期两条线（90万吨）停车，这将带来约8万吨/月 的供给缩量。因此PP供应压力短期有所缓解。而在需求方面，虽然近期盘面的波动带动了部分投机性补库意 愿，但是在今年下游"旺季不旺"的态势中，需求端总体驱动不足，对PP形成的支撑有限。对比PP、PE来看， 在PP多套装置出现非计划性停车的情况下，其供需格局改善的程度略优于PE，因此短期的基本面变化 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, polyolefins have followed the decline in crude oil. The supply - demand pattern of PP has become looser. The significant drop in propane prices has led to a recovery in PDH device profits, with the device load expected to increase and supply to gradually return. On the demand side, the downstream of PP has shown a "weak peak season" this year, with limited restocking willingness from factories. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, PP is under continuous pressure. Due to many recent disturbing factors, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral operations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6500 - 7000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.20% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.0% [3]. 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 6900 - 7000 range to lock in profits and offset production costs; also, sell PP2601C6900 call options with a 50% ratio in the 20 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6500 - 6550 range to lock in procurement costs in advance; also, sell PP2601P6400 put options with a 75% ratio in the 50 - 80 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - Polyolefins have declined with crude oil. The supply - demand of PP has become looser. Propane price drops have increased PDH profits, reducing unexpected shutdowns and increasing device loads. Downstream demand has shown a "weak peak season", with limited restocking and short - lived speculative restocking, so demand support is insufficient. Due to many disturbing factors, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - Currently, there is a lack of positive support [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The CP price of propane dropped significantly during the National Day, causing PP to lose cost support; the peak - season demand recovery has been slow, showing a "weak peak season"; exports have weakened seasonally and the export window is currently closed; a 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical started operation this week [8]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 17, 2025, the main basis of polypropylene was - 71 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 37 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 59 yuan/ton. PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all declined compared to the previous day and week [9]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased compared to the previous day and week. The regional spreads between East China - North China and East China - South China also changed [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various non - standard products and standard products (拉丝) all increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with different weekly increases [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged on the day but decreased weekly. US propane prices decreased. The processing profits of different production methods of PP changed, with some showing an improvement [9].

聚丙烯套保策略表 聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年7月22日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7300 | 7.71% | 3.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损 失，可以根据企业的库 | | | | | | | | | 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-7300 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene (PP) market is currently in a state of weak oscillation. The fundamental situation of PP is under significant supply pressure, but the spot price is relatively firm, and the recent trading volume has improved to some extent. It is expected that the PP market will continue to oscillate in the near future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.1% [1] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell the PP2509C7200 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at a premium range of 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For companies with low regular procurement inventory looking to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell the PP2509P6900 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at a premium range of 30 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - The PP market is facing great supply pressure. Multiple plants were put into operation in the middle of the year, and the PP output is at a historical high even with a high rate of plant maintenance. Although the operating rate of some PDH plants has declined recently, it is expected to rise again due to the recovery of PDH profits, leading to an increase in supply. On the other hand, the spot price of PP is relatively firm, and the trading volume has improved, which supports the market. Therefore, it is difficult for the PP market to show a trending movement and is expected to oscillate in the near future [2] Bullish Factors - The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading volume [3] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple plants have been or will be put into operation from June to August, which will significantly increase PP production capacity. The recovery of PDH profits will lead to the return of marginal plants [4] Polypropylene Daily Report Table Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on July 17, 2025, was 40 yuan/ton, a daily change of - 17 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 32 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also showed certain daily and weekly changes, as did the spreads between different contracts [1][5][7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days, and the regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products also showed different degrees of change on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. The prices of Northwest coal, East China methanol, and the processing profits of different PP production methods also showed various changes [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro sentiment and coking coal prices. However, the short - term upward space for PP is relatively limited due to expected supply increases [2]. - The reasons for limited upward space of PP are new device commissioning and reduced device maintenance, which increase supply pressure [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors for PP. Positive factors include favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and firm spot prices, while negative factors are new device commissioning and the return of marginal devices [2][3] Summaries by Related Content Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.38%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 30.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short 25% of PP2509 futures to lock in profits and offset production costs, and sell 50% of PP2509C7200 call options to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, and sell 75% of PP2509P7100 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if prices fall [1] Core Contradictions - In the context of macro - driven market upswing, the upward space for PP is limited. The supply of PP is expected to increase significantly. New devices are being commissioned, and device maintenance has decreased, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Positive Factors - Favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and relatively firm spot prices [2] Negative Factors - Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH device profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually resuming production [3] Market Data - The table shows various data such as polypropylene basis, contract prices, regional price differences, upstream prices, and processing profits [6]

source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 受宏观情绪影响，近日聚烯烃震荡上行。从基本面来看，PP近期呈现供增需弱的格局：供给端，6-8月新装置投产计划较多，预计新增产能达到 220万吨，导致供给端压力大幅增加。叠加7月PP装置检修将有所减量，装置回归带来进一步供给增量。而在需求端，当前仍处于下游产销淡季之 中，企业以刚需补库为主，需求缺乏增量驱动。所以在当前的供需格局下，PP存在较大压力。对比PE来看，当前L-P价差走扩逻辑具备一定支 撑，后续需关注装置投产进度和中美关税政策变化。 聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6900-7200 | 13.10% | 29.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Previously, the market had strong expectations that tariff policies would force PDH plants to shut down, which strongly supported PP. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the propane supply problem will be resolved, PP supply will no longer be restricted, and the previous support will disappear. The upside space of PP in this rebound is expected to be limited [2]. 3) Detailed Summaries Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 110 - 130 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Spread**: On May 13, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day and 99 yuan/ton from the previous week). PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased. The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads also changed [1][3]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: In different regions, spot prices showed slight daily and weekly changes. The differences between regions also changed [3][5][6]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spread**: The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed daily and weekly [6]. - **Upstream Price and Processing Profit**: Brent crude oil, US propane, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of different production methods such as oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based also changed [6]. Core Contradictions and Factors - **Lack of Upward Momentum**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns has decreased, weakening the support for PP prices. The upside space in the rebound is limited [2][3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Positive factors include high PP maintenance volume reducing supply and a neutral inventory level with low pressure. Negative factors are the weakening downstream demand and the planned commissioning of multiple plants in the second and third quarters, increasing supply pressure [2][5]