Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core Viewpoint**: The current market's main contradiction lies in the cost support for PP brought by the strong propylene price. The PP fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, driving the bottom of the market to rebound. In the short term, the market will rebound from the bottom, but in the medium to long term, pressure still exists [1]. Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The main contradiction in the current market is the cost support for PP from the strong propylene price. The profit of PDH plants has been compressed to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, and there may be marginal plant shutdowns in December. The PP supply is expected to decrease, while the demand is mixed, with some products showing a decline and others providing support. Overall, the PP fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Near - term Trading Logic**: The production profit of PDH plants has been pressed to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, increasing the expectation of plant shutdowns. The powder plant has shown negative feedback, leading to a rebound in PP. However, the weakening basis may drag down the rebound. Attention should be paid to the PDH plant's operating status and the PP basis change [5]. - **Long - term Trading Expectation**: Although the PP supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, the new plant construction in the first half of 2026 is relatively limited, and the macro - economic outlook is optimistic. Therefore, PP is expected to rebound from the bottom in the medium to long term [6]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of polypropylene is 6300 - 6700 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.52% and a historical percentile of 18.7% over three years [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, shorting PP futures and selling call options are recommended. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buying PP futures and selling put options are recommended [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Propylene and propane prices remain strong recently [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the release of the December CP price [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: On Friday, the market showed an obvious bottom - rebound trend. The position of the 01 contract decreased this week, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats decreased, while the top five profitable seats increased their long positions [19]. - **Basis Structure**: After the market rebounded on Friday, the PP spot price rose weakly, and the basis weakened significantly. As of Friday, the North China basis was -159 yuan/ton, the East China basis was -59 yuan/ton, and the South China basis was -9 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spread Structure**: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - economic expectations and fewer PP plants in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit of all production routes is not optimistic. The profit of PDH plants has dropped to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, increasing the expectation of marginal plant shutdowns [32]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The subsequent supply - demand pressure is not significant. The key is how PP digests the existing supply. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high plant maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and low imports [36]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PP operating rate is 78.15% (-0.14%). Some plants are expected to restart next week, increasing the supply. However, due to the low profit of PDH plants and the strong propane price, unexpected maintenance may increase, so the supply side is still cautiously optimistic [41]. 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - In October, PP imports were 27.31 tons, a decrease of 1.17 tons from September. Due to the falling domestic price, the import arbitrage window is difficult to open. Exports were 23.51 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous month. Due to weak overseas demand, exports are basically stable at 23 - 24 tons [43]. 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The current average downstream operating rate is 53.57% (+0.26%). The operating rates of different products vary. The overall PP demand is supported by the good performance of non - woven fabrics, pipes, and modified PP [46].

聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年10月23日 分析师 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 助理分析师 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 成本端，原油和焦煤的双重拉涨，带动化工板块总体回升。首先是由于近日地缘问题再度升温，带动原 油触底反弹。一方面是美国与委内瑞拉关系持续紧张，另一方面是美国对俄罗斯石油公司的制裁升级，消息 面的多重扰动促使油价大幅上涨。另外，焦煤也因受到部分地区减产以及蒙煤通关量减少等供应端消息影 响，呈现出强势上行的态势。 供需端，供给方面，PP近期装置以外停车的情况增多，内蒙宝丰由于上游合成压缩机检修，PP一条线 （50万吨）预计停车10天，另外大榭石化由于上游技改，二期两条线（90万吨）停车，这将带来约8万吨/月 的供给缩量。因此PP供应压力短期有所缓解。而在需求方面，虽然近期盘面的波动带动了部分投机性补库意 愿，但是在今年下游"旺季不旺"的态势中，需求端总体驱动不足，对PP形成的支撑有限。对比PP、PE来看， 在PP多套装置出现非计划性停车的情况下，其供需格局改善的程度略优于PE，因此短期的基本面变化 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, polyolefins have followed the decline in crude oil. The supply - demand pattern of PP has become looser. The significant drop in propane prices has led to a recovery in PDH device profits, with the device load expected to increase and supply to gradually return. On the demand side, the downstream of PP has shown a "weak peak season" this year, with limited restocking willingness from factories. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, PP is under continuous pressure. Due to many recent disturbing factors, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral operations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6500 - 7000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.20% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.0% [3]. 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 6900 - 7000 range to lock in profits and offset production costs; also, sell PP2601C6900 call options with a 50% ratio in the 20 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6500 - 6550 range to lock in procurement costs in advance; also, sell PP2601P6400 put options with a 75% ratio in the 50 - 80 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - Polyolefins have declined with crude oil. The supply - demand of PP has become looser. Propane price drops have increased PDH profits, reducing unexpected shutdowns and increasing device loads. Downstream demand has shown a "weak peak season", with limited restocking and short - lived speculative restocking, so demand support is insufficient. Due to many disturbing factors, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - Currently, there is a lack of positive support [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The CP price of propane dropped significantly during the National Day, causing PP to lose cost support; the peak - season demand recovery has been slow, showing a "weak peak season"; exports have weakened seasonally and the export window is currently closed; a 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical started operation this week [8]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 17, 2025, the main basis of polypropylene was - 71 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 37 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 59 yuan/ton. PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all declined compared to the previous day and week [9]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased compared to the previous day and week. The regional spreads between East China - North China and East China - South China also changed [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various non - standard products and standard products (拉丝) all increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with different weekly increases [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged on the day but decreased weekly. US propane prices decreased. The processing profits of different production methods of PP changed, with some showing an improvement [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market strengthened significantly in the afternoon due to the influence of coking coal prices. From a macro - perspective, positive policy signals led to a bullish sentiment. However, the PP market still faces upward pressure. On the supply side, three sets of equipment were put into operation from June to July, resulting in high PP production despite high maintenance levels. On the demand side, although the trading atmosphere improved this week, it is still in the off - season with limited substantial demand growth. Therefore, PP will face significant resistance during the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand and the progress of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 7.71%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over three years is 3.6% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7250 - 7300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and offset production costs; sell PP2509C7300 call options with a 50% ratio at 50 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% ratio at 30 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal prices and positive macro - policies. But for PP, there is still supply pressure due to new equipment put into operation from June to July, and demand is in the off - season with limited growth [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - The market is driven up by macro - sentiment. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Two sets of equipment in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple sets of equipment will be put into operation from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. The PDH profit has recovered, and marginal equipment is gradually resuming operation [6]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The main - contract basis of polypropylene was - 78 yuan/ton on July 22, 2025, a daily change of - 57 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 153 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased compared to the previous day and week [7][9]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China remained unchanged, while those in East and South China increased slightly. Regional spreads also showed corresponding changes [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between non - standard and standard products showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. Different PP production methods had different profit changes [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene (PP) market is currently in a state of weak oscillation. The fundamental situation of PP is under significant supply pressure, but the spot price is relatively firm, and the recent trading volume has improved to some extent. It is expected that the PP market will continue to oscillate in the near future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.1% [1] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell the PP2509C7200 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at a premium range of 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For companies with low regular procurement inventory looking to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell the PP2509P6900 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at a premium range of 30 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - The PP market is facing great supply pressure. Multiple plants were put into operation in the middle of the year, and the PP output is at a historical high even with a high rate of plant maintenance. Although the operating rate of some PDH plants has declined recently, it is expected to rise again due to the recovery of PDH profits, leading to an increase in supply. On the other hand, the spot price of PP is relatively firm, and the trading volume has improved, which supports the market. Therefore, it is difficult for the PP market to show a trending movement and is expected to oscillate in the near future [2] Bullish Factors - The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading volume [3] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple plants have been or will be put into operation from June to August, which will significantly increase PP production capacity. The recovery of PDH profits will lead to the return of marginal plants [4] Polypropylene Daily Report Table Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on July 17, 2025, was 40 yuan/ton, a daily change of - 17 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 32 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also showed certain daily and weekly changes, as did the spreads between different contracts [1][5][7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days, and the regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products also showed different degrees of change on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. The prices of Northwest coal, East China methanol, and the processing profits of different PP production methods also showed various changes [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro sentiment and coking coal prices. However, the short - term upward space for PP is relatively limited due to expected supply increases [2]. - The reasons for limited upward space of PP are new device commissioning and reduced device maintenance, which increase supply pressure [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors for PP. Positive factors include favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and firm spot prices, while negative factors are new device commissioning and the return of marginal devices [2][3] Summaries by Related Content Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.38%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 30.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short 25% of PP2509 futures to lock in profits and offset production costs, and sell 50% of PP2509C7200 call options to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, and sell 75% of PP2509P7100 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if prices fall [1] Core Contradictions - In the context of macro - driven market upswing, the upward space for PP is limited. The supply of PP is expected to increase significantly. New devices are being commissioned, and device maintenance has decreased, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Positive Factors - Favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and relatively firm spot prices [2] Negative Factors - Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH device profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually resuming production [3] Market Data - The table shows various data such as polypropylene basis, contract prices, regional price differences, upstream prices, and processing profits [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by macro - sentiment, polyolefins have been oscillating upward recently. Fundamentally, PP shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. From June to August, there are many new PP device commissioning plans, with an expected new production capacity of 2.2 million tons, increasing supply pressure. In July, PP device maintenance will decrease, bringing further supply increments. On the demand side, it is still the off - season for downstream production and sales, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand, lacking incremental demand drivers. Therefore, PP faces significant pressure under the current supply - demand pattern. The logic of the expanding L - P spread has certain support, and attention should be paid to the device commissioning progress and changes in Sino - US tariff policies [2] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.10% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 29.7% [1] 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell the PP2509C7100 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, enterprises can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6950 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell the PP2509P7000 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Affected by macro - sentiment, polyolefins oscillate upward. PP has a supply - increasing and demand - weak pattern. New device commissioning from June to August and reduced maintenance in July increase supply, while demand is in the off - season with only rigid - demand replenishment. The expanding L - P spread has support, and attention should be paid to device commissioning progress and tariff policy changes [2] 3.4 Bullish Factors - Polypropylene inventory remains at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with little change in the basis [3] 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 4 has entered the commissioning stage. Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. In July, PP device maintenance is expected to decrease, and devices will gradually resume operation. It is the downstream sales off - season, and overall domestic demand is weak due to poor profits this year [4] 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table 3.6.1 Futures Price and Spread - The polypropylene main - contract basis decreased by 46 yuan/ton daily and 67 yuan/ton weekly. PP01 contract price remained unchanged, PP05 contract price increased by 22 yuan/ton weekly, and PP09 contract price decreased by 29 yuan/ton weekly. The PP1 - 5 monthly spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton weekly, the PP5 - 9 monthly spread increased by 84 yuan/ton weekly, and the PP9 - 1 monthly spread decreased by 62 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread decreased by 210 yuan/ton daily and 199 yuan/ton weekly [1][5][7] 3.6.2 Spot Price and Regional Spread - In the spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased. The East - North price difference decreased by 145 yuan/ton daily and 125 yuan/ton weekly, and the East - South price difference increased by 55 yuan/ton daily and 30 yuan/ton weekly [7] 3.6.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spread - The spreads between various non - standard products and the standard product (拉丝) changed. For example, the spread between homopolymer injection molding and 拉丝 decreased by 655 yuan/ton daily and 600 yuan/ton weekly [7] 3.6.4 Upstream Price and Processing Profit - Brent crude oil price increased by 2.31 dollars/barrel weekly. The US propane price, Northwest coal price, and East China methanol price decreased. The oil - to - PP profit increased by 488.2476 yuan/ton weekly, the coal - to - PP profit decreased by 659.5 yuan/ton daily and 657.25 yuan/ton weekly, the externally - purchased methanol - to - PP profit decreased by 190 yuan/ton daily and 270 yuan/ton weekly, the PDH - to - PP profit decreased by 196.5004 yuan/ton weekly, and the externally - purchased propylene - to - PP profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton weekly [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Previously, the market had strong expectations that tariff policies would force PDH plants to shut down, which strongly supported PP. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the propane supply problem will be resolved, PP supply will no longer be restricted, and the previous support will disappear. The upside space of PP in this rebound is expected to be limited [2]. 3) Detailed Summaries Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 110 - 130 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Spread**: On May 13, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day and 99 yuan/ton from the previous week). PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased. The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads also changed [1][3]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: In different regions, spot prices showed slight daily and weekly changes. The differences between regions also changed [3][5][6]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spread**: The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed daily and weekly [6]. - **Upstream Price and Processing Profit**: Brent crude oil, US propane, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of different production methods such as oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based also changed [6]. Core Contradictions and Factors - **Lack of Upward Momentum**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns has decreased, weakening the support for PP prices. The upside space in the rebound is limited [2][3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Positive factors include high PP maintenance volume reducing supply and a neutral inventory level with low pressure. Negative factors are the weakening downstream demand and the planned commissioning of multiple plants in the second and third quarters, increasing supply pressure [2][5]