聚丙烯套保策略表 聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年7月22日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7300 | 7.71% | 3.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损 失，可以根据企业的库 | | | | | | | | | 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-7300 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene (PP) market is currently in a state of weak oscillation. The fundamental situation of PP is under significant supply pressure, but the spot price is relatively firm, and the recent trading volume has improved to some extent. It is expected that the PP market will continue to oscillate in the near future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.1% [1] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell the PP2509C7200 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at a premium range of 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For companies with low regular procurement inventory looking to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell the PP2509P6900 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at a premium range of 30 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - The PP market is facing great supply pressure. Multiple plants were put into operation in the middle of the year, and the PP output is at a historical high even with a high rate of plant maintenance. Although the operating rate of some PDH plants has declined recently, it is expected to rise again due to the recovery of PDH profits, leading to an increase in supply. On the other hand, the spot price of PP is relatively firm, and the trading volume has improved, which supports the market. Therefore, it is difficult for the PP market to show a trending movement and is expected to oscillate in the near future [2] Bullish Factors - The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading volume [3] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple plants have been or will be put into operation from June to August, which will significantly increase PP production capacity. The recovery of PDH profits will lead to the return of marginal plants [4] Polypropylene Daily Report Table Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on July 17, 2025, was 40 yuan/ton, a daily change of - 17 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 32 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also showed certain daily and weekly changes, as did the spreads between different contracts [1][5][7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days, and the regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products also showed different degrees of change on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. The prices of Northwest coal, East China methanol, and the processing profits of different PP production methods also showed various changes [7]

聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7300 | 13.38% | 30.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损 失，可以根据企业的库 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7200-7250 | | | | | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 业的生产成本 | | | | | | ...

source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 受宏观情绪影响，近日聚烯烃震荡上行。从基本面来看，PP近期呈现供增需弱的格局：供给端，6-8月新装置投产计划较多，预计新增产能达到 220万吨，导致供给端压力大幅增加。叠加7月PP装置检修将有所减量，装置回归带来进一步供给增量。而在需求端，当前仍处于下游产销淡季之 中，企业以刚需补库为主，需求缺乏增量驱动。所以在当前的供需格局下，PP存在较大压力。对比PE来看，当前L-P价差走扩逻辑具备一定支 撑，后续需关注装置投产进度和中美关税政策变化。 聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6900-7200 | 13.10% | 29.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套 ...

聚丙烯风险管理日报 聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6950-7100 | 10.75% | 42.8% | 戴一帆 2025-05-13 17:12:17 source： 南华研究 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 聚丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空聚丙烯期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-7 150 | | ...