聚烯烃日报 | 2026-03-03 油价上涨助推成本上升，聚烯烃价格大幅上行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6991元/吨（+394），PP主力合约收盘价为6998元/吨（+387），LL华北现货为 6650元/吨（+170），LL华东现货为6800元/吨（+250），PP华东现货为6700元/吨（+70），LL华北基差为-341元/吨（-194）， LL华东基差为-191元/吨（-134）， PP华东基差为-298元/吨（-317）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为88.0%（-0.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（-0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-554.7元/吨（-260.8），PP油制生产利润为-704.7元/吨（-260.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-650.4元/吨（-124.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-256.6元/吨（-136.6），PP进口利润为-455.5元/吨（-37.3），PP出口利润为-59.5美元/吨 （+4.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为10.1%（-14.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为24.7%（+4.4%），PP下游塑 ...

聚烯烃月报 等待需求检验，震荡运行 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2026/2/27 证监许可[2025]75号 PE：高供应与成本支撑博弈，震荡运行 本月回顾 2月塑料震荡偏弱，跌破前低。月初跳空高开15点在7029，随后快速反弹至月内高点7086，转为大幅走弱 ，结束12月23日以来的反弹走势，盘面开始逐步回吐寒潮及地缘溢价。2/9-2/12，节前一周市场波动逐步 降低，盘面在6700至6850横盘震荡；节后累库幅度基本符合预期，但上游检修力度不足，跟随油价冲高后 重回跌势，月底破位下跌，创 近 一个月新低6553，较1月末高点跌幅达8%。全月在6553至7086间运行，振 幅533点。 下月展望 高供应与成本支撑博弈，震荡运行。2月检修力度不足，预计日均产量同比增加13.2%至10.4万吨。根据统 计，3月计划新增检修装置仅为100万吨，预计供给端压力仍存。节后两油库存升至同期中性位置，农膜市 场复工复产缓慢，若3月地膜复苏不及预期，预计产业链仍面临一定的去库压力。总体来看，塑料自身供 需格局依旧偏 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-02-27 下游复工缓慢，去库压力仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6668元/吨（-109），PP主力合约收盘价为6675元/吨（-45），LL华北现货为6580 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6660元/吨（-120），PP华东现货为6650元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-88元/吨（+9）， LL华东基差为-8元/吨（-11）， PP华东基差为-25元/吨（+15）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为88.0%（-0.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（-0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-215.7元/吨（+13.9），PP油制生产利润为-555.7元/吨（+13.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-467.7元/吨（+20.3）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-42.0元/吨（-17.3），PP进口利润为-390.5元/吨（-58.0），PP出口利润为-62.5美元/吨（-8.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为10.1%（-14.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为24.7%（+4.4%），PP下游塑编开工 率为29.3%（+5.2%），PP下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PE market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the cost - side is supported by rising oil prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and post - holiday inventory levels [1][3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. Cost - side support exists, but demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,787 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (+5). LL North China spot is 6,550 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-12), LL East China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-12), and PP East China basis is - 13 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 165.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 425.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 517.0 yuan/ton (-54.4) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 106.7 yuan/ton (+11.4), PP import profit is - 251.5 yuan/ton (+53.3), and PP export profit is - 64.1 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE Market**: The macro - sentiment is generally weakening. The plastic market fluctuates in a range. The cost - side support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply is under pressure due to more restarted devices and more imported resources, while the demand remains weak in the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP Market**: The cost - side support exists, but the supply increase is limited due to some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the rising oil prices and raw material propane provide cost support, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No operation [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastics market is oscillating. The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiations and the resurgence of geopolitical risk premiums may support oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. The supply of PE is under pressure with high - level开工率 and more imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season. PP's supply pressure is currently acceptable, but the demand is expected to decline seasonally [3][4]. - The current supply - demand structure of PP is still weak, and the cost side fluctuates sharply. For both PE and PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the inventory accumulation amplitude after the Spring Festival [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,775 yuan/ton (+54), PP main contract at 6,688 yuan/ton (+58). LL North China spot was 6,550 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 225 yuan/ton (-124), LL East China basis - 75 yuan/ton (-54), PP East China basis - 8 yuan/ton (-58) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 85.9% (+0.6%), PP开工率 73.9% (-0.9%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was - 192.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PP oil - based production profit - 452.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PDH - based PP production profit - 462.7 yuan/ton (+22.5) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 118.1 yuan/ton (-34.0), PP import profit - 304.7 yuan/ton (+58.1), PP export profit - 62.5 US dollars/ton (-2.1) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 64.6% (+0.4%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The plastics market oscillates due to weakened macro - sentiment and weak fundamentals. The cost support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply side has pressure with more restarted devices and more imported resources. The demand side is in the off - season with declining downstream开工率. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is under pressure [3]. - **PP**: There is still short - term cost support. The supply pressure is currently acceptable with some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP price spread when it is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PP supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the start-up rate being higher than that of PP, coupled with the fact that the centralized demand for mulch film has not yet started, it is expected that the L-PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5%. Petrochemical destocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, the US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US warned that ships flying the US flag should stay as far away from Iranian waters as possible when sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, so the crude oil price rebounded. There has been a slight decrease in overhaul devices recently. The prices of downstream BOPP films in some areas are stable, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving has decreased, and its new orders are limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the number of terminal shutdowns for holidays has further increased, and most downstream stocking has been completed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,627 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,691 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,688 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.44%. The trading volume decreased by 1,773 lots to 488,568 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions have partially declined. The drawstring is reported at 6,310 - 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The early petrochemical inventory on Tuesday decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons week-on-week, 35,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking is acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose to $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure with a weak supply - demand situation. The cost side and macro - sentiment are volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and post - holiday inventory accumulation [3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. The cost side has short - term support but is also volatile, and the focus is on inventory accumulation during the off - season and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6721 yuan/ton (-91), the PP main contract is 6630 yuan/ton (-61). LL North China spot is 6620 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+61), LL East China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+41), and PP East China basis is 50 yuan/ton (+61) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 81.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 391.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PDH - based PP production profit is - 485.2 yuan/ton (-52.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is - 84.1 yuan/ton (-97.3), PP import profit is - 362.9 yuan/ton (+2.8), PP export profit is - 60.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic market is under pressure. The cost side is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. The supply side has increased pressure with many restarting devices and more imported resources, while the demand side is in a off - season with declining downstream operating rates. There may be inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP**: The short - term cost side has support. The supply side pressure is acceptable with some PDH devices under maintenance and limited increase in overall operating rate, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The demand side is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall demand is weak [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's important speech on Jiangsu's work and the resolutions from the provincial party congress and economic work meeting to promote high-quality and sustainable development [1] - The China East Sea Crystal City is highlighted as the world's largest crystal trading market, with a focus on enhancing brand building, research and development, and product value to meet consumer demands [1] - The development of county-level characteristic industries is seen as a means to boost local economies and promote common prosperity, with an emphasis on innovation and entrepreneurship [1] Group 2 - The promotion of a circular economy and sustainable development is emphasized, particularly in the context of the recycling plastic industry [2] - The need for comprehensive green transformation in agriculture is highlighted, with a focus on integrating technology and quality into marine aquaculture and fisheries [2] - The importance of ensuring the operational stability of grassroots medical institutions and improving access to healthcare for the community is stressed [2]

预期与现实博弈， PVC震荡向上 PVC月报 2026/02/06 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，月同比上涨225元/吨；山东电石价格报2930元/吨，月同比上涨150元/吨；兰炭陕西中料785元/吨， 月同比下跌35元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润重新下滑至历史低位，乙烯制利润大幅回升，综合估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.3%，月同比上升0.6%；其中电石法80.9%，月同比上升2.5%；乙烯法75.5%，月同比下降3.8%。上月检修量仍然较小， 平均产能利用率持稳，供应压力仍然较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，十二月出口量小幅回升，出口退税政策计划4月1日取消，短期进入抢出口阶段，预期出口量大幅上升；三大下游开工季节 性下滑，管材 ...