上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为350.5元/吨（+9.1），PP油制生产利润为-389.5元/吨（+9.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-393.0元/吨（-53.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-21.4元/吨（-54.6），PP进口利润为-221.6元/吨（-54.4），PP出口利润为1.6美元/吨（+6.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-25 需求季节性转弱，短期上行驱动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6793元/吨（+23），PP主力合约收盘价为6372元/吨（+15），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6380元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为7元/吨（-23），LL华 东基差为107元/吨（-23）， ...

ZHESHANG FUTURES 【L周报20251123】供需弱势难改 核心观点 【免責声明】 2025-11-23 ® 观点： 聚乙烯 震荡下行阶段，后期价格中枢有望下降 ® 合约: 12601 ® 還撮: 【处于产能投放原期中，新增装置陆续落地，存量负荷也较高，同时Q4进口有望放量，供应压力较大；需求进入旺季尾声，难以稍化高产量，在供需过剩之下，聚烯铝价格量心或持续下移。 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为駒 | 情得向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量在盘面买入看跌期权来 预防价格下跌风险 | I2601-P-6700 | 买入 | 50 | 53 | | | | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心PE价格下跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6770 | -0.95% | 344017 | -3991 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 0 | | -35 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -61 | | -48 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6770 | | 6800 | | | | 东 华 | 6910 | | 6940 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节利润压缩，PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游农膜、 ...

【DT新材料】 获 悉 ，11月18日， 道恩股份 连发两条公告，成立一家新公司，转让一家公司。 首先是 ，公司将以246万元的价格将控股子公司 道恩万亿（河北）高分子材料有限公司 （下称"道恩万亿"）51%股权转让给 河北万亿特种新材 料制造有限公司 （下称"河北万亿"）。交易完成后，道恩股份将不再持有道恩万亿的股权。 资料显示， 道恩万亿 成立于2020年， 当时正值疫情特殊时期，口罩销量暴涨，导致 口罩中起关键过滤作用的M层的原材料 熔喷料供不应求 。 道恩股份在熔喷料领域深耕近20年，是《聚丙烯（PP）熔喷专用料》国家标准的编制单位。为了 做强做大熔喷料业务的需要，于是道恩 出资 1530万元， 参股51%，成立了这家公司，开展熔喷料等高分子新材料业务。 现在疫情已过，这家公司也完成历史任务，从营收来看，近两年处于停滞状态。 | 项目 | 2025 年 1-9 月 | 2024 年度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 5.18 | 0 | | 营业利润 | -36. 64 | -49.71 | | 净利润 | -36. 64 | -49.71 | | 经营活动产生的现金流量 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。本周社会库存小 幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Factors contributing to this include a decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high social inventory, ongoing real - estate adjustments, upcoming Indian anti - dumping taxes, high futures warehouse receipts, and falling prices of coking coal and coke suppressing market sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 slightly declined and remains at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC alleviated concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious [1]. - From January to October 2025, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. Investment, new construction, and completion areas have significant year - on - year declines, and the growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further dropped. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacities such as Tianjin Bohua are in operation, and some enterprises' maintenance is about to end [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4416 yuan/ton, a high of 4490 yuan/ton, and closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 1.15% decline and a decrease of 25423 hands in positions to 1432396 hands [2]. - On November 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 yuan/ton, strengthening by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC开工率 to decline. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, and Qingdao Gulf are in production [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease. The sales volume was 6901.7 billion yuan, a 9.6% decrease. New construction and completion areas also decreased significantly. As of November 16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although it decreased slightly, it is still high [6].

格隆汇11月20日丨银禧科技(300221.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司的PPO业务材料分为PPO注塑用改性塑料 与化工合成的电子化学品PPO材料。PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能 充足。公司的电子化学品PPO年设计产能为300吨，但受多种因素影响，实际产能远低于设计产能，目 前还在爬坡中。 ...

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 万凯新材11月18日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，瓶片行业于7月份启动反内卷以 来，公司严格落实行业倡议，公司部分装置按照年度检修计划及运行安排开展检修，整体装置负荷有所 下降。目前，PET行业整体供需结构持续改善，行业加工费水平呈现良好的回升态势，经营情况稳中向 好。关于股价波动，受到市场环境、行业情绪及资金面等多重因素综合作用所致，敬请注意投资风险。 公司将继续坚持稳健经营，以经营业绩和长期价值增长回馈投资者。 ...

Summary of Jinfa Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinfa Technology - **Industry**: Modified Plastics Key Points Sales and Profit Projections - Jinfa Technology expects modified plastic sales to reach **3 million tons** in 2025, with a net profit of approximately **3 billion yuan**, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly **20%** driven by demand from the **new energy vehicles** and **home appliance exports** sectors, as well as market share gains [2][3][5] - For 2026, modified plastic sales are projected to maintain a growth rate of **15%-20%** [2][3] Product Sales Structure - The sales structure of modified plastic products remains stable, with the automotive sector accounting for about **45%**, home appliances for **16%-17%**, and electronics for **15%**, collectively exceeding **70%** [2][6] - Emerging sectors like new energy, toys, and packaging are growing rapidly but still represent a small overall share [2][6] Competitive Advantages - Jinfa Technology is the largest modified plastic enterprise in China, with competitive advantages in **R&D investment** (3%-4% of revenue), talent acquisition, and comprehensive solutions [2][8][9] - The company has established **7 overseas bases** to enhance global operational capabilities [2][9] Financial Performance and Challenges - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinfa Technology's overall performance met expectations, with modified plastic sales approaching **2.1 million tons** [3] - The petrochemical business is expected to incur losses of **1.4-1.5 billion yuan** in 2025, with potential improvements in 2026 if market conditions stabilize [4][15] - The company anticipates a **6-7 million yuan** impact on profits due to the stock incentive plan in 2025 [12] Future Growth and Capacity Expansion - In 2026, Jinfa Technology plans to introduce new production capacities for high-temperature nylon, LCP, and specialty nylon, expecting sales growth of over **30%**, contributing an additional **1 billion yuan** to net profit [2][13] - The company aims to double total sales from **3 million tons** to **6 million tons** over the next five years, with overseas sales reaching **1.5 to 2 million tons** [4][21] Special Materials and Innovations - The special materials segment, particularly LCP, has seen growth exceeding **50%** in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by demand from AI and high-speed connectors [11] - Jinfa Technology is developing materials for humanoid robots, focusing on high-temperature nylon and PEEK, with potential applications in joints and bearings [17][18] International Expansion - Jinfa Technology is expanding into Poland and Mexico, with production expected to start in the second quarter of 2026, targeting a total capacity of **300,000 tons** by 2030 [19][20] - The company emphasizes its competitive edge in the international market through a diverse product range and strong global supply chain capabilities [20] Collaboration and Capital Expenditure - Jinfa Technology collaborates with Siemens on material development and technology exchange, enhancing their partnership [22] - The company plans to maintain cautious capital expenditure, focusing on promising areas like new materials and biodegradable materials, with annual spending expected to remain around **3 billion yuan** [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]