【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 截至1月9日当周，元旦节后，PP下游开工率环比下降0.10个百分点至52.6%，处于历年同期偏低 水平。其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.22个百分点至42.92%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降， 略低于去年同期。1月9日，东华能源（宁波）一期等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至79%左 右，处于偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至25.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处 于近年同期中性水平。成本端，原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧， 但目前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交 3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中 旬投产，近期检修装置有所增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商偏观望。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活 动指数和综合PMI产出指数均升至扩张区间，财政部提前下达2026年以旧换新及"两 ...

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 1月9日，双星新材在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司目前积极围绕光学显示、新 能源、消费电子等方向，并持续拓展材料应用的广度与深度。未来公司将继续关注市场发展趋势，积极 依托技术及产业基础布局新兴领域。 ...

聚烯烃日报日报 | 2026-01-09 塑料基差走强，下游开工仍偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6628元/吨（-14），PP主力合约收盘价为6484元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为6520 元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为6600元/吨（+70），PP华东现货为6250元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-108元/吨（+34）， LL华东基差为-28元/吨（+84）， PP华东基差为-234元/吨（+2）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.7%（+0.4%），PP开工率为75.5%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为263.3元/吨（+88.6），PP油制生产利润为-256.7元/吨（+88.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-765.6元/吨（+49.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为21.6元/吨（-179.3），PP进口利润为-300.5元/吨（-21.3），PP出口利润为-34.1美元/吨（-2.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为37.9%（-1.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.9%（-0.2%），PP下游 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-08 煤炭期价涨幅明显，情绪提振盘面延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6642元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6486元/吨（+63），LL华北现货为6500 元/吨（+130），LL华东现货为6530元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6250元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-142元/吨（+67）， LL华东基差为-112元/吨（-23）， PP华东基差为-236元/吨（-33）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为174.8元/吨（+90.8），PP油制生产利润为-335.2元/吨（+90.8），PDH制PP生产利 润为-815.4元/吨（-23.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为200.9元/吨（+11.8），PP进口利润为-279.2元/吨（+31.8），PP出口利润为-31.5美元/吨 （-4.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为39.0%（-4.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.1%（-0 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中 拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。1月7日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在至79%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉丝生产 比例上涨至23.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依 然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下 游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情 提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数均升至扩张区间，财政部提前下达2026年以旧换新及"两重"额度，宏观氛 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-07 成本端扰动加强，盘面延续反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6579元/吨（+130），PP主力合约收盘价为6423元/吨（+93），LL华北现货为 6370元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为6490元/吨（+10），PP华东现货为6220元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-209元/吨（-160）， LL华东基差为-89元/吨（-120）， PP华东基差为-203元/吨（-63）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为84.0元/吨（+19.5），PP油制生产利润为-446.0元/吨（+19.5），PDH制PP生产利 润为-791.6元/吨（+37.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为189.1元/吨（+89.8），PP进口利润为-311.0元/吨（+40.1），PP出口利润为-27.4美元/吨 （-5.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为39.0%（-4.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.1%（-0.6%）， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to operate in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, a decrease in downstream orders, and high inventory levels. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes online and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1][4]. - On the cost side, due to oversupply in the crude oil market and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there have been few changes in maintenance devices recently [1]. - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has fallen again, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market has limited the boost to the market [1]. - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, which boosted market sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6326 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6375 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6348 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.67%. The open interest decreased by 33,492 lots to 507,887 lots [2]. - Spot: PP spot prices in various regions partially increased, with raffia priced at 5920 - 6330 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6].

需求延续弱势，压制反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-31 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，独山子石化2线与湛江巴斯夫临时检修，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，供应宽松压力持续，厂家让利降库为主；需求端，PE下游进入需求淡季，下游 整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜 开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延续累积，且LL和LD绝对社会 库存水平仍偏高，市场情绪谨慎下PE去库压力预期仍偏大。成本端国际油价近期反弹走高，成本面支撑有所回升。 总体来看需求淡季来临叠加供应端持续宽松，企业去库压力持续存在，现货端延续疲弱，基差偏弱，供需矛盾持 续压制价格。 PP方面，短期供需基本面变量有限，供应端，新增东华能源（宁波）检修，临时检修偏多使得PP开工环比下滑， 金能三线45万吨计划检修，1月存部分PDH装置预期检修，现货供应压力预期阶段性小幅缓解，供应端减量仍需等 待兑现；需求端，下游订单跟进有限，整体下游开工稳中下滑，仅BOPP开工维稳，形成一定需求支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile range. The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with limited upside potential. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new PP capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [1][4] - Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1] - Due to oversupply in the crude oil market, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Russia reported 91 Ukrainian drones attacking Putin's residence. The rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - There is new capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a volatile range. The lowest price was 6,271 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,346 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,321 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 23,919 lots to 541,379 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. Drawstring was reported at 5,920 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]