Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that polyolefin prices will fluctuate strongly due to the improved domestic supply - demand pattern, the expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, the support from the Middle East situation, and the reduced supply expectation. However, the market is volatile, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the holiday and the development of the Middle East situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 decreased by 5 percentage points to around 80%, reaching a relatively low level, with new parking devices such as Qilu Petrochemical HDPE 1 line [13]. - PP开工率 dropped 3.5 percentage points to about 73%, also at a low level, with new parking devices including Ningxia Baofeng's third - line and Maoming Petrochemical's first - line [13]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of March 27, PE下游开工率 increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but had not returned to the pre - holiday normal level, showing seasonal changes [20]. - As of the week of March 27, PP下游开工率 rose 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. Downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was low, demand recovered slowly, and the downstream开工率 had not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawn wire increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14% [20]. 3.3 Plastic基差 The spot price increase exceeded the futures price increase, and the 05 contract basis rose to - 268 yuan/ton but remained at a relatively low level [22]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 3.5 tons week - on - week to 77 tons, 2.5 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to recent years [26]. 3.5 Market Analysis - The cost side: Although the US has sent negotiation signals, the Middle East conflict still exists, and the possibility of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Iran is low. The risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and crude oil prices have rebounded [3]. - Supply: New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans for the first quarter. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz still leads to the expectation of reduced polyolefin supply [3]. - Demand: After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released intensively. During the spring plowing season, the prices of downstream BOPP films and agricultural films continued to rise [3]. - International influence: Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production, while the Middle East region's imports account for about 20% of domestic production. The Middle East's PE production capacity accounts for over 15% of the global total, and PP does not rely on Middle East imported goods, but its upstream depends on Middle East liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The Middle East's PP production capacity accounts for 9% of the global total, and the Middle East's polyolefin exports account for about 25% of global polyolefin exports, affecting international prices and supply [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - L2605 rose and then fell, closing at 8,918 yuan/ton with a 3.57% decline. Recent international oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop. In terms of plastic supply and demand, some plants were under maintenance, PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.07%. Downstream operating rates increased by 3.8% week-on-week. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 568,300 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.98% to 607,100 tons. PE maintenance plans increased, and supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream is in the traditional peak season, and demand is recovering. Asian ethylene prices are strong, providing support for LLDPE. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news from the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 8,918 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 8,443 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8,918 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8,736 yuan/ton, down 576 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 1,133,666 lots, up 265,827 lots; the open interest was 314,927 lots, down 58,310 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 475, up 330; the 5 - 9 spread was 182, down 29; the 9 - 1 spread was 293, down 301 [2] - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 455,054 lots, down 50,372 lots; the short positions were 467,027 lots, down 36,997 lots; the net long positions were - 11,973 lots, down 13,375 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8,890.43 yuan/ton, up 2.17 yuan; in East China, it was 9,137.21 yuan/ton, up 1.16 yuan [2] - The basis was - 27.57, up 607.17 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 138.75 US dollars per barrel, up 4.77 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 1,189.5 US dollars per ton, up 49 US dollars [2] - The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 1,426 US dollars per ton, up 75 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 1,451 US dollars per ton, up 25 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 80.07%, down 2.32 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 45.56%, up 2.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 23.33%, up 5.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 35.44%, up 8.63 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 41.68%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 33.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 52.15%, down 6.51 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a 2.81% decrease from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 80.07%, a 2.32 - percentage - point decrease [2] - From March 13th to 19th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 3.8% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 8.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 2.2% [2] - As of March 18th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 568,300 tons, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week; as of March 20th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 607,100 tons, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week [2] - From March 13th to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 9.35% to 10,177 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 519 yuan/ton to - 1,848 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.72% to 6,542 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 383 yuan/ton to 1,829 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - PP prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the holiday and the development of the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the chemical industry's anti - involution is still expected. The Middle - East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle - East imported goods, its upstream depends on Middle - East liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil, and the shortage of raw materials has led to a reduction in the load of olefin plants at home and abroad, resulting in a tight supply of domestic PP standard products and weak spot transactions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the fourth week of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials was low, and demand recovered slowly. The operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawstring decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. On March 20, new shutdown devices such as a single line of Zhongsha Tianjin and a line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 76.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to about 24.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped from a high level. Although the device operating rate has slightly recovered recently, it is still lower than the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2605 contract decreased in position and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 8762 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 9197 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 9019 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.04%. The position decreased by 29,253 lots to 361,277 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was reported at 8230 - 8930 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On March 20, new shutdown devices such as a single line of Zhongsha Tianjin and a line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 76.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to about 24.5% [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the fourth week of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials was low, and demand recovered slowly. The operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawstring decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [4] - **Inventory**: The early petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 30,000 tons to 810,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $108 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $1100 per ton week - on - week [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly [1] - Author: Su Miaoda [1] - Release Date: March 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the near term, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival and the situation in the Middle East [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Supply Side - Plastic开工率下降至87.5%左右，处于中性水平；PP开工率下降至75.5%左右，处于偏低水平 [3][13] - 2026年1月，巴斯夫（广东）50万吨/年的FDPE和裕龙石化30万吨/年的LDPE/EVA新增产能投产，一季度已无新增产能计划投产 [3] Demand Side - 截至3月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升5.21个百分点至33.83%，春节假期结束第三周，下游陆续复产，但还未恢复至节前水平，整体PE下游开工率呈季节性变动 [3][20] - 截至3月13日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.16个百分点至45.71%，春节假期结束第三周，下游对高价原料接受度不高，需求恢复缓慢，但拉丝主力下游塑料开工率继续回升2.88个百分点至40.54% [3][20] Cost Side - 虽然IEA宣布释放4亿桶石油储备，但交付速度较慢，加上霍尔木兹海峡多艘船只遭袭，伊朗最高领袖声明将继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡，富查伊拉油港等已经遭受了伊朗袭击，原油价格继续反弹 [3] Inventory - 周五石化早库环比增加2万吨至82万吨，较去年农历同期高了4.5万吨，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平 [28] Price - 塑料和PP强势上涨 [4] - 基差大幅波动，现货价格涨幅超过期货价格涨幅，05合约基差略上涨至-53元/吨，仍处于偏低水平 [24] Market Impact - 聚烯烃国内自身供需格局有所改善，化工反内卷仍有预期，中东局势提振能源化工 [3] - 伊朗PE进口占中国总进口量约8%，占国内产量约3%，整个中东地区进口占国内产量约20%，中东地区PE产能占全球15%以上，PP不依赖中东进口货源，但上游依赖中东液化石油气和原油，中东地区PP产能占全球9%，中东聚烯烃出口占全球聚烯烃出口约25%，影响国际价格和供给 [3] - 原料的短缺使得国内外烯烃装置降负增加，国内标品货源偏紧，下游出现高价抵触情绪，现货成交较弱 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and due to the high - sentiment of chemical products, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but did not return to the pre - holiday level. On March 11, new maintenance devices such as the second line of Guangzhou Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 75.5%, with the production ratio of standard wire drawing falling to about 26%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has been decreasing since then. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years. The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed for many days, causing Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to cut production. However, with the G7 countries discussing the release of strategic oil reserves and Trump's statement, the crude oil price has dropped significantly from a high level. Although PP does not rely on Middle - Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle - Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin device loads at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, resulting in weak spot transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 7,633 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 8,298 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 8,197 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.07%. The position increased by 57,892 lots to 421,712 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose, and the wire drawing was reported at 7,470 - 8,580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 11, new maintenance devices such as the second line of Guangzhou Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 75.5%, with the production ratio of standard wire drawing falling to about 26% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but did not return to the pre - holiday level [4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 840,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $90/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $130/ton week - on - week to $1,150/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has improved. With the expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry and the boost from the Middle East situation on energy chemicals, polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastics and PP oscillated downward [5] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level; PP operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level [3][15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of March 6, PE downstream operating rate increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week, and PP downstream operating rate rebounded by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but had not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [3][22] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price increase was less than the futures price increase. The basis of the 05 contract slightly dropped to - 241 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [25] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventories - During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. As of Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 500 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to recent years [29] 3.6 Cost and New Capacity - Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, oil - producing countries in the Middle East were forced to cut production, and crude oil prices rose significantly, which significantly boosted polyolefins. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans for new capacity to be put into production in the first quarter [3] 3.7 Market Conditions of Agricultural Films - After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and rigid demand was released intensively. Agricultural film prices in North and East China increased, while those in South China remained stable [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances have reversed the supply - demand expectations, and the polyolefin market is expected to continue the bullish trend before the conflict ends. However, short - term fluctuations are large, and risk control should be noted [4][8] - For plastics, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may lead to import reduction, potential production load reduction, and strong cost support. For PP, the conflict mainly affects through the raw material end, with compressed PDH profits and strong cost support [4][8] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1. Market Review - This week, plastics and PP both showed a volatile and upward trend. Plastics opened flat at 6630, with a weekly low of 6624 and a high of 7695, an amplitude of 1067 points. PP opened flat at 6680, with a weekly low of 6635 and a high of 7800, an amplitude of 1189 points [3][7][13] 1.2. Capital - As of Thursday this week, the PE main contract position decreased from 480,000 lots to 390,000 lots [15][16] 1.3. Basis - As of Thursday this week, the plastics main contract basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract spread was 37 yuan/ton [19] 1.4. Monthly Spread - As of Thursday this week, the L59 spread was 152 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday of 251 yuan/ton on March 5. The PP59 spread was 277 yuan/ton [22] 1.5. Warehouse Receipts No specific content provided 1.6. Cross - Variety - As of Thursday this week, the LP05 spread was 179 yuan/ton, and the MTO05 spread was - 186 yuan/ton [27] 1.7. Industry Chain Price and Valuation - The cost side has strong support, and the trends of ethylene and propylene are differentiated [29] 2.1. Supply - This week, the PE output was 720,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The PP output was 770,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 76% and a cumulative year - on - year output increase of 5.3%. In March, the planned new maintenance capacity was 3.28 million tons [45][47] 2.2. Import and Export - In 2025, the average monthly PE import volume was 1.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 3.2%), and the export volume was 90,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 29%). The average monthly PP import volume was 280,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 8.3%), and the export volume was 260,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [52][53][54] 2.3. Downstream Start - up Rate - The downstream start - up rates of PE and PP have declined. The agricultural film start - up rate of PE is at a low level in the same period [55][59] 2.4. Demand - In 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.8 billion US dollars (year - on - year increase of 0.4%), and the proportion of exports to the United States was 14% [65] 2.5. Inventory - This week, the PE commercial inventory was 1.27 million tons, and the PP commercial inventory was 1.08 million tons, both at low levels in the same period. As of Thursday, the polyolefin petrochemical inventory was 475,000 tons. The PE and PP enterprise inventories were 320,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively. The PE social inventory was 480,000 tons, and the PP trader inventory was 180,000 tons [67][70][73][76] 1.1. Spot Price Review No specific content provided 1.2. Warehouse No specific content provided 1.3. Valuation and Profit No specific content provided 2.1. Supply (PDH) - This week, the propylene capacity utilization rate was 72%, and the PDH start - up rate was still at a low level in the same period [89] 2.2. Demand No specific content provided 2.3. Inventory No specific content provided 4. Strategies For Plastics - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of 7500 - 8500 yuan/ton for L2605 [5] - Arbitrage: Hold short LP05 spread [5] - Hedging: Mainly conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [5] For PP - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of 7500 - 8500 yuan/ton for PP2605 [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Hedging: Mainly conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 81.11%, but it is still at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the downstream average start - up rate increased by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84%, 3.14 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The post - holiday export orders increased slightly, but due to completed March pre - sales and the cancellation of export tax rebate on April 1st, along with India's anti - subsidy tax investigation, the export is expected to decline. The social inventory is still high. The real estate is in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment and other areas. Although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded, it is still at a low level. The comprehensive profit margin of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still high. Considering factors such as the expected policy and maintenance, the recovery of downstream demand, and the sharp increase in crude oil prices, PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 81.11%, still at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the downstream average start - up rate increased by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84%, 3.14 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The post - holiday export orders increased slightly, but are expected to be low in March. The social inventory is still high, and the real estate is in the adjustment stage. The comprehensive profit margin of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited. With the expected policy and maintenance after the Spring Festival, the recovery of downstream demand, and the sharp increase in crude oil prices, PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 5020 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5298 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5276 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 5.12% and an increase in open interest of 64,859 lots to 1,143,319 lots [2] - Basis: On March 6th, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5080 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5276 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 196 yuan/ton, weakening by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Henan Jiyuan Fangsheng and Yantai Wanhua stopped for maintenance. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 81.11%, still at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua had a trial production in December 2025 [4] - Demand side: The real estate is in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%. The new construction area of houses was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. As of the week of March 1st, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 1317% week - on - week, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of March 6th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.75% week - on - week to 1.4038 million tons, 62.29% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to increase this week, still at a high level [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have led to concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and LPG. This has caused domestic olefin plants to potentially reduce their production, leading to an expected decrease in supply and an increase in polyolefin prices [3]. - For PE, in 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. The price increase may be led by non - standard products HD and LD, and then affect the supply and consumption of HD, LLD, and LD. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - For PP, the impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is relatively small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost factors. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price [4]. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,200 yuan/ton (+209), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,223 yuan/ton (+225), the LL North China spot price is 7,000 yuan/ton (+350), the LL East China spot price is 7,100 yuan/ton (+300), the PP East China spot price is 7,030 yuan/ton (+330), the LL North China basis is - 200 yuan/ton (+141), the LL East China basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+91), and the PP East China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (+105) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is - 681.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 1,021.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 2,156.9 yuan/ton (-1,506.5) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is 3.4 yuan/ton (+260.0), the PP import profit is - 385.5 yuan/ton (+70.0), and the PP export profit is - 68.5 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the supply of raw materials. Although the planned maintenance of PE upstream in March - April is still relatively small, attention should be paid to the extent of production reduction due to raw material supply. The inventory of upstream and intermediate traders has accumulated rapidly after the Spring Festival. The downstream of PE is gradually resuming work slowly, and the current demand is limited. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - **PP**: The impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price. The downstream is gradually resuming work slowly, and the inventory of intermediate traders has accumulated [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, providing strong cost support for polyolefins and causing a sharp rise in olefin prices. The PE market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but short - term geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices. For PP, the impact on overseas supply is small, and the cost - push is the main factor. The deepening loss of PDH profit may lead to a continuation of the PDH maintenance peak, and the expected reduction in supply provides support for PP prices. Attention should be paid to the actual demand after the resumption of work in the PE mulch film peak season and the follow - up of downstream demand for PP [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6991 yuan/ton (+394), and that of the PP main contract is 6998 yuan/ton (+387). LL North China spot is 6650 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (+250), and PP East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (+70). LL North China basis is - 341 yuan/ton (-194), LL East China basis is - 191 yuan/ton (-134), and PP East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-317) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 554.7 yuan/ton (-260.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 704.7 yuan/ton (-260.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 650.4 yuan/ton (-124.6) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 256.6 yuan/ton (-136.6), PP import profit is - 455.5 yuan/ton (-37.3), and PP export profit is - 59.5 US dollars/ton (+4.8) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - **PE**: The Iran situation directly impacts China's PE imports from Iran. In 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. It is mainly non - standard products HD and LD, with LL accounting for 11.38%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices. Currently, PE is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited demand and high inventory [3]. - **PP**: The Iran situation has little impact on overseas PP supply. The cost - push is the main factor. The deepening loss of PDH profit may lead to a continuation of the PDH maintenance peak, and the expected reduction in supply provides support for PP prices. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand [4]. III. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy provided.