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苹果市场周报:嘎啦上市或延迟,支持苹果价格-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 10:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. Due to high temperatures, the large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed, which, combined with the low old - crop inventory, boosts the short - term apple price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the Apple 2510 contract, with the upper pressure on the 2510 contract at 8,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the overall shipment speed has slowed. The large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed due to high temperatures. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for the Business of Fresh Apple Futures", which may affect aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery products, and packaging. Overall, the short - term apple price is boosted [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [10]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in apple futures was 2,912 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. 3.3 Spot Market - As of August 8, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji apples of grade 80 and above from farmers in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of grade 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.4 Industry Chain 3.4.1 Supply Side - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed has slowed slightly. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have decreased, with Gansu's shipment almost finished [26]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - As of August 7, the average daily number of trucks arriving at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg, a 0.62% decrease from the previous period; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, a 0.31% increase from the previous period [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.1 yuan/kg, a 0.42% decrease from the previous period [37]. - In June 2023, China's total export of fresh apples was 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [40]. 3.5 Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [41]. 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented, but no specific data is provided [43].
苹果期货周报-20250630
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 09:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The apple market currently shows obvious off - season characteristics, with cooling fruits seizing market share. The overall trading atmosphere in the production areas is not strong, and merchants purchase on - demand. The inventory trading focuses on high - cost - effective goods. The current sales speed is slower than the same period last year, but the inventory level is low, so the price has bottom support. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable, and later attention should be paid to price fluctuations due to quality decline. The extremely early - maturing apples in the west are on the market, with prices slightly higher than last year. Future attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Apple Weekly Views and Outlook - This week, bagging work in various production areas has ended, and the labor shortage has eased. The trading of apples in storage is stable and light. Merchants purchase on - demand, with only a small number of increased inquiries but limited actual transactions. In the western production areas, merchants mainly ship to the market themselves, and some cold storages still have water - rotting spots. Extremely early - maturing apples such as Tengmu and Guangguo Chenyang have been launched, with prices slightly higher than last year. The Shandong production area continues to focus on trading high - cost - effective goods, and the sales of large fruits are slow. The consumption of cooling seasonal fruits such as peaches, lychees, and melons in the terminal market has increased, significantly impacting the apple market [5]. 2. Market Price Trend - The active contract price of apples, the price of the main contract, and the basis have their respective trends, with price ranges from 6,000.00 to 8,500.00 [9]. - The spot prices of apples in the main production areas are stable and strong, including the market price trends of different varieties and grades in different regions such as Luochuan, Qixia, Penglai, and Yiyuan [15]. - The wholesale prices of Fuji apples and the monitoring prices of key fruits (such as pineapples, grapes, and watermelons) have their own trends over different years and weeks [21]. 3. Shipping Volume and Inventory - The shipping volume and inventory of cold - storage apples have shown different trends over different years and weeks, with the shipping volume ranging from 0 to 500,000 tons and the inventory from 0 to 12 million tons [27]. 4. Monthly Spread - There are monthly spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, and 10 - 01 spread, with different price ranges and trends over different years and dates [29][31].
国金期货苹果日报-20250603
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:59
Group 1: Report General Information - Report writing variety: Apple [1] - Writing time: May 30, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] - Consulting license number: Z0017731 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Review - Apple futures slightly declined. The opening price of the main AP2510 contract was 7,640 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,678 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,592 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,675 yuan/ton. The settlement price was 7,636 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from yesterday. The trading volume was 53,199 lots, a decrease of 9,306 lots from yesterday, and the open interest was 105,238 lots, a decrease of 1,615 lots from the previous day [5] Group 3: Spot Fundamental Situation Production Area Market - In Shandong Yiyuan production area on May 30, the middle - price of 70 general goods, 75 general goods, and sub - fruits in the apple warehouse remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The replenishment enthusiasm of merchants in the production area was okay, and the market transaction was stable. The new - season apples had good fruit - setting performance, and fruit farmers were in the large - scale bagging stage. In Shaanxi Baishui production area, the warehouse inventory was finished, and the new - season apples also entered the large - scale bagging stage [6][7] Sales Area Market - The number of apple trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market increased compared to yesterday. The actual transaction price in the market was based on quality. Recently, the number of trucks arriving at the market decreased. With the hot weather, the impact of seasonal fruits was obvious, the apple sales were average, and secondary and tertiary wholesalers purchased on demand with little backlog in the transfer warehouse [7] Group 4: Important Data Tracking - The report provided the mainstream transaction middle - prices of late Fuji apples of different regions, diameters, and grades on May 30, with a note that some grades might differ slightly from actual goods, and the actual price was subject to the quality of the spot [8][10] Group 5: Market Outlook - Currently, due to the hot weather, the listing of melons had an obvious impact on the apple market, and the apple sales were average. On the futures market, the price of the 2510 contract was supported by the 5 - day moving average, continuing the rebound trend of the previous trading day with a strong intraday performance. In the short term, the rebound of apple futures prices might be limited, and the prices would mainly show a wide - range low - level oscillating trend [11][12]