南华期货苹果产业周报 ——晚富士陆续摘袋 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、优果率问题。我们认为近期苹果期货价格上涨的主要原因还是因为优果率。从目前情况看，目前山东和西 部地区均已开始脱袋，整体看东部质量其实并不差，就是果个偏小，不过未来这段时间阴雨天偏多，摘袋可 能会出现反绿，以及雨后出现鸡爪纹的问题。西部地区果个比往年偏小，但果面整体干净，后续依旧是存在 阴雨天偏多的情况，返青不上色以及鸡爪纹问题依旧会发生。 2、开秤价是多少？晚富士即将开秤，无论是嘎啦还是早富士开秤价都非常不错。今年采青富士价格整体高于 去年同期0.5元/斤，甘肃花牛价格则已经高于去年1元/斤。采青富士价格基本上已经为晚富士开秤价定调。 对于远期合约而言，整体价格比近月合约要弱不少。主要在于市场存在高开秤后价格低走的预期。今年整 体果子的质量不太好，果个偏小且有可能上色依旧存在问题的情况下，整体的价格可能会复制嘎啦和早富士 的价格轨迹。不过考虑盘面苹果本身偏优质 ...

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with rising prices for new season apples while old season apples are facing declining prices due to various market dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of the latest close, the main contract AP2510 is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-maturing Fuji apples [1]. - The prices for early-maturing apples, particularly the paper-bag Gala variety, are significantly higher than the same period last year, with increases of 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per jin [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The weighted price for high-quality apples in Shandong has dropped to 3.73 yuan/jin, a decline of 0.41 yuan/jin (9.90%) since early July [1]. - The old season apples are primarily concentrated in Shandong, with other regions having minimal remaining inventory [1]. - The price for early-maturing apples in Gansu's Jingning area has started at 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is approximately 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Prices - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant harvest this year [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing price expectations [4]. - Concerns over the quality of early-maturing apples, including issues with color and size, are leading to increased expectations for the opening prices of late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that apple futures prices may initially rise before stabilizing, influenced by the demand side as the harvest season concludes [5]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards higher opening prices for late-maturing Fuji apples, potentially exceeding last year's prices by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [4].

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with a notable price disparity between old and new season apples, influenced by various factors including supply, demand, and seasonal fruit competition [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the latest close, the main contract for apple futures (AP2510) is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-season Fuji apples [1]. - The old season apples, particularly in Shandong, are facing weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with a weighted price of 3.73 yuan/jin for grade 80 and above, down 9.90% from early July [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of early-season apples, particularly the paper bag Gala variety, is significantly higher than the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 0.3 to 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. - In Gansu's Jingning region, the starting price for paper bag Gala apples is between 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is about 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. - The price expectations for late-season Fuji apples are rising, with anticipated opening prices potentially exceeding last year's by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [6]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant yield and lower prices compared to previous years [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing market dynamics [2][6]. - Weather conditions have impacted apple quality, with issues such as insufficient color and smaller fruit sizes affecting early-season apples, leading to higher demand for new season apples [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. Due to high temperatures, the large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed, which, combined with the low old - crop inventory, boosts the short - term apple price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the Apple 2510 contract, with the upper pressure on the 2510 contract at 8,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the overall shipment speed has slowed. The large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed due to high temperatures. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for the Business of Fresh Apple Futures", which may affect aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery products, and packaging. Overall, the short - term apple price is boosted [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [10]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in apple futures was 2,912 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. 3.3 Spot Market - As of August 8, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji apples of grade 80 and above from farmers in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of grade 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.4 Industry Chain 3.4.1 Supply Side - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed has slowed slightly. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have decreased, with Gansu's shipment almost finished [26]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - As of August 7, the average daily number of trucks arriving at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg, a 0.62% decrease from the previous period; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, a 0.31% increase from the previous period [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.1 yuan/kg, a 0.42% decrease from the previous period [37]. - In June 2023, China's total export of fresh apples was 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [40]. 3.5 Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [41]. 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented, but no specific data is provided [43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The apple market currently shows obvious off - season characteristics, with cooling fruits seizing market share. The overall trading atmosphere in the production areas is not strong, and merchants purchase on - demand. The inventory trading focuses on high - cost - effective goods. The current sales speed is slower than the same period last year, but the inventory level is low, so the price has bottom support. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable, and later attention should be paid to price fluctuations due to quality decline. The extremely early - maturing apples in the west are on the market, with prices slightly higher than last year. Future attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Apple Weekly Views and Outlook - This week, bagging work in various production areas has ended, and the labor shortage has eased. The trading of apples in storage is stable and light. Merchants purchase on - demand, with only a small number of increased inquiries but limited actual transactions. In the western production areas, merchants mainly ship to the market themselves, and some cold storages still have water - rotting spots. Extremely early - maturing apples such as Tengmu and Guangguo Chenyang have been launched, with prices slightly higher than last year. The Shandong production area continues to focus on trading high - cost - effective goods, and the sales of large fruits are slow. The consumption of cooling seasonal fruits such as peaches, lychees, and melons in the terminal market has increased, significantly impacting the apple market [5]. 2. Market Price Trend - The active contract price of apples, the price of the main contract, and the basis have their respective trends, with price ranges from 6,000.00 to 8,500.00 [9]. - The spot prices of apples in the main production areas are stable and strong, including the market price trends of different varieties and grades in different regions such as Luochuan, Qixia, Penglai, and Yiyuan [15]. - The wholesale prices of Fuji apples and the monitoring prices of key fruits (such as pineapples, grapes, and watermelons) have their own trends over different years and weeks [21]. 3. Shipping Volume and Inventory - The shipping volume and inventory of cold - storage apples have shown different trends over different years and weeks, with the shipping volume ranging from 0 to 500,000 tons and the inventory from 0 to 12 million tons [27]. 4. Monthly Spread - There are monthly spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, and 10 - 01 spread, with different price ranges and trends over different years and dates [29][31].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report writing variety: Apple [1] - Writing time: May 30, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] - Consulting license number: Z0017731 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Review - Apple futures slightly declined. The opening price of the main AP2510 contract was 7,640 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,678 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,592 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,675 yuan/ton. The settlement price was 7,636 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from yesterday. The trading volume was 53,199 lots, a decrease of 9,306 lots from yesterday, and the open interest was 105,238 lots, a decrease of 1,615 lots from the previous day [5] Group 3: Spot Fundamental Situation Production Area Market - In Shandong Yiyuan production area on May 30, the middle - price of 70 general goods, 75 general goods, and sub - fruits in the apple warehouse remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The replenishment enthusiasm of merchants in the production area was okay, and the market transaction was stable. The new - season apples had good fruit - setting performance, and fruit farmers were in the large - scale bagging stage. In Shaanxi Baishui production area, the warehouse inventory was finished, and the new - season apples also entered the large - scale bagging stage [6][7] Sales Area Market - The number of apple trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market increased compared to yesterday. The actual transaction price in the market was based on quality. Recently, the number of trucks arriving at the market decreased. With the hot weather, the impact of seasonal fruits was obvious, the apple sales were average, and secondary and tertiary wholesalers purchased on demand with little backlog in the transfer warehouse [7] Group 4: Important Data Tracking - The report provided the mainstream transaction middle - prices of late Fuji apples of different regions, diameters, and grades on May 30, with a note that some grades might differ slightly from actual goods, and the actual price was subject to the quality of the spot [8][10] Group 5: Market Outlook - Currently, due to the hot weather, the listing of melons had an obvious impact on the apple market, and the apple sales were average. On the futures market, the price of the 2510 contract was supported by the 5 - day moving average, continuing the rebound trend of the previous trading day with a strong intraday performance. In the short term, the rebound of apple futures prices might be limited, and the prices would mainly show a wide - range low - level oscillating trend [11][12]