8月以来，苹果期货价格经历一轮上涨后转入高位震荡。截至周二收盘，主力合约AP2510报收于8124元/吨，微跌 0.23%。当前，市场正处于旧季苹果清库尾声与新季晚熟富士即将上市的关键过渡期。 卓创资讯苹果市场资深分析师杨军向期货日报记者表示，目前新季早熟苹果陆续上市，以纸袋嘎啦为主，陕西、甘肃 产区上市收购价格显著高于往年同期；与此同时，冷库旧季苹果行情偏弱，客商采购积极性低，价格持续走低。新旧 两季苹果价格呈现明显的"冰火两重天"格局，市场对晚熟富士开秤价格的预期也随之抬升。 "目前冷库旧季苹果主要集中在山东产区，其他产区剩余货源量已经很少。"杨军称，自7月份以来，冷库旧季苹果行情 持续低迷，价格不断走低。截至8月下旬，山东产区80#以上一、二级货源加权价格为3.73元/斤，与7月初相比价格下滑 0.41元/斤，累计下滑9.90%，与5月初相比价格下滑0.46元/斤。存储商的存储利润也进一步压缩，中小果及统货利润空 间尚可，但是高质量货源及85#以上大果利润空间缩减严重。 对冷库旧季苹果行情持续走低的原因，杨军表示，一是受时令水果冲击，今年荔枝丰产，其销售价格明显低于往年同 期，对苹果市场的冲击较大。二是 ...

不过，杨军表示，受天气影响，苹果上色难度比较大，多数货源表现为红度不够，也因干旱等问题，果个偏小的问题 比较突出。由于早熟类苹果好货占比偏少、冷库旧季苹果出残率偏高，而且市场对新季货源有尝鲜需求，因此市场客 商对新季苹果的采购热情明显高于冷库旧季货源。 8月以来，苹果期货价格经历一轮上涨后转入高位震荡。截至周二收盘，主力合约AP2510报收于8124元/吨，微跌 0.23%。当前，市场正处于旧季苹果清库尾声与新季晚熟富士即将上市的关键过渡期。 "随着新季早熟苹果收购的进行，市场对晚熟富士的开秤收购价格预期逐步提高，此种情况在西北产区表现得更加明 显。"杨军表示，这主要有几方面的依据：一是早熟类苹果价格居高，可能会带动晚熟苹果价格同样居高。二是上市的 早熟苹果表现出质量欠佳、果个偏小问题，市场担忧晚熟富士会出现同样的问题。三是中秋节时间较晚，中秋节期间 市场需求会带动新季晚熟富士前期收购价格。四是上一产季存储商普遍存在丰厚的存储利润，尤其是西北产区利润空 间较大，这在一定程度上会带动贸易商的收购积极性。"按照目前的市场行情来看，开秤价格或高于去年0.3~0.5元/斤， 个别产区价差或更高。"他认为。 卓创资讯（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. Due to high temperatures, the large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed, which, combined with the low old - crop inventory, boosts the short - term apple price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the Apple 2510 contract, with the upper pressure on the 2510 contract at 8,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the overall shipment speed has slowed. The large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed due to high temperatures. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for the Business of Fresh Apple Futures", which may affect aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery products, and packaging. Overall, the short - term apple price is boosted [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [10]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in apple futures was 2,912 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. 3.3 Spot Market - As of August 8, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji apples of grade 80 and above from farmers in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of grade 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.4 Industry Chain 3.4.1 Supply Side - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed has slowed slightly. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have decreased, with Gansu's shipment almost finished [26]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - As of August 7, the average daily number of trucks arriving at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg, a 0.62% decrease from the previous period; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, a 0.31% increase from the previous period [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.1 yuan/kg, a 0.42% decrease from the previous period [37]. - In June 2023, China's total export of fresh apples was 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [40]. 3.5 Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [41]. 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented, but no specific data is provided [43].

苹果期货周报 作者：王泽辉 投资咨询资格：Z0019938 联系方式：020-88818064 2025-6-28 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 广发期货APP 微信公众号 苹果周度观点与展望 | 主要观点 | 未来展望 | | --- | --- | | ⚫ 本周各产区套袋工作陆续结束，用工紧张情况有所缓解。库内苹果交投稳淡，客商维持按需拿 | 西部极早熟苹果上市，价格较去 | | 货，少量客商询价增多，但实际成交有限。西部产区多以客商自行发市场为主，部分冷库仍存 | 年略高。后续关注新季早熟苹果 | | 在水烂点现象；极早熟藤木、光果晨阳等开始上市，价格略高于去年。山东产区继续以高性价 | 上市交易情况。 | | 比货源交易为主，大果走货不快。终端市场桃子、荔枝、瓜类等消暑类应季水果消费增加，明 | | | 显冲击苹果市场。 | | 苹果 ⚫ 苹果市场目前淡季特征明显，消暑类水果抢占苹果消费市场份额。目前产区整体成交氛围不旺， 客商维持按需拿货，库内交易以高性价比货源为主。目前走货速度慢于去年同期，但目前库存 水平处于低位，价格存在底部支撑，预计短期价格仍表现稳定，后期 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report writing variety: Apple [1] - Writing time: May 30, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] - Consulting license number: Z0017731 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Review - Apple futures slightly declined. The opening price of the main AP2510 contract was 7,640 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,678 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,592 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,675 yuan/ton. The settlement price was 7,636 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from yesterday. The trading volume was 53,199 lots, a decrease of 9,306 lots from yesterday, and the open interest was 105,238 lots, a decrease of 1,615 lots from the previous day [5] Group 3: Spot Fundamental Situation Production Area Market - In Shandong Yiyuan production area on May 30, the middle - price of 70 general goods, 75 general goods, and sub - fruits in the apple warehouse remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The replenishment enthusiasm of merchants in the production area was okay, and the market transaction was stable. The new - season apples had good fruit - setting performance, and fruit farmers were in the large - scale bagging stage. In Shaanxi Baishui production area, the warehouse inventory was finished, and the new - season apples also entered the large - scale bagging stage [6][7] Sales Area Market - The number of apple trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market increased compared to yesterday. The actual transaction price in the market was based on quality. Recently, the number of trucks arriving at the market decreased. With the hot weather, the impact of seasonal fruits was obvious, the apple sales were average, and secondary and tertiary wholesalers purchased on demand with little backlog in the transfer warehouse [7] Group 4: Important Data Tracking - The report provided the mainstream transaction middle - prices of late Fuji apples of different regions, diameters, and grades on May 30, with a note that some grades might differ slightly from actual goods, and the actual price was subject to the quality of the spot [8][10] Group 5: Market Outlook - Currently, due to the hot weather, the listing of melons had an obvious impact on the apple market, and the apple sales were average. On the futures market, the price of the 2510 contract was supported by the 5 - day moving average, continuing the rebound trend of the previous trading day with a strong intraday performance. In the short term, the rebound of apple futures prices might be limited, and the prices would mainly show a wide - range low - level oscillating trend [11][12]