1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of apple futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, with a significant overall increase and reaching a new high in this round of rise [7][14][64] - The new - season apple production and quality have declined, and the low inventory strongly supports the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. The apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern, and the apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [8][64] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - The main contract of apple futures AP2605 rose first and then fell last week, with an overall significant increase. As of the afternoon close on March 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 10,316 yuan/ton, up 556 yuan/ton or 5.7% for the week [6][14] 3.1.2 Spot Price - **Shandong**: In Shandong, the number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair. In Qixia, replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods, with limited transactions. In Penglai, third - grade goods were mainly traded, and some merchants sought high - quality goods. The price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Penglai was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade fruit was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common - grade goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin [20] - **Shaanxi**: In Shaanxi, the number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods. In Yan'an, high - quality goods were slightly firmer, but overall transactions were average. In Baishui and Xianyang, e - commerce purchases increased, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.4 yuan/jin, over 70 common - grade goods was around 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods was around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [25] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On March 7, 2026, the overall apple market in production areas was light. Western buyers continued to pick high - quality goods, and as high - quality goods decreased, some turned to Shandong to pick high - quality first - and second - grade goods. The demand for high - quality goods remained strong, while the trading of general and poor - quality goods was relatively cold, and the price of poor - quality goods declined in some areas [27] - **Shandong**: In Qixia, the inventory apple trading was limited. Some speculators bought first - and second - grade high - quality goods, and the transaction was based on quality. The price of 80 first - and second - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 3.30 - 4.30 yuan/jin, 80 above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade inventory Fuji was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the inventory Fuji trading was light, with limited merchant enthusiasm and slow sales. The price of high - quality common - grade 75 above inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 2.50 - 2.60 yuan/jin, and general common - grade 75 above was 1.80 - 2.30 yuan/jin [27] - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small. Downstream traders restocked as needed, with good demand for high - quality goods and little trading of poor - quality goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 4.10 - 4.30 yuan/jin, and over 70 common - grade was 3.40 - 3.60 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small, with uneven quality and chaotic prices, and slow sales. The price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [28] - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng Linyi, the inventory Fuji trading was average. The remaining volume of film - bag apples was small, and the sales of paper - plus - film apples were stable. Merchants picked high - quality goods, and the price was stable. The price of over 75 inventory film - bag late Fuji was 1.40 - 1.50 yuan/jin, and over 80 paper - plus - film late Fuji was 2.00 - 2.60 yuan/jin [28] - **Gansu**: In Jingning, the trading did not change significantly. Inventory holders mainly shipped their own inventory, and a few picked high - quality fruit farmers' goods. The price of high - quality goods was stable, and that of general and poor - quality goods was stable but weak. The price of 75 starting commercial fruit of inventory paper - bag late Fuji in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and common - grade was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [28] 3.3 Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage storage volume of late Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 4, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas across the country was 5.2753 million tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed was faster than the previous week [39] - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio in Shandong last week was 41.56%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair, and replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods [39] - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi last week was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week. The number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods [39] - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratio in Gansu last week was 29.58%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week. Merchants in Gansu were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods rose. The storage capacity ratio in Shanxi was 27.86%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week. Merchants in Shanxi gradually shifted from seeking film - bag apples to paper - plus - film apples. The storage capacity ratio in Liaoning was 46.90%, a decrease of 1.94% from the previous week. Merchants mainly replenished general common - grade fruit farmers' goods [39][40] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong market last week slightly increased compared with the first week after the Spring Festival. Actual transactions were based on quality. Currently, the number of arriving trucks in the market is small, the backlog in the transfer warehouse is not serious, the purchasing willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers is low, the market is relatively cold, and the selling prices are chaotic [45] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [50] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - As of the 10th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the 9th week. Among the six kinds of fruits, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, and Ya pears increased by 0.40 yuan/kg, 0.06 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.47 yuan/kg and 0.45 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples remained the same as the previous week [54] 3.7 Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. Affected by the Christmas and New Year's Day festivals, the export volume increased significantly in December. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [59] 3.8 Production Statistics - According to Steel Union data, the domestic apple production in 2025 was 3.43142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous year. The production in Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu decreased by 6.97%, 16.54%, and 4.45% respectively, while that in Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning increased by 9%, 11%, and 3% respectively [61][63] 3.9 Market Outlook - The main contract of apple futures rose first and then fell last week, with a significant overall increase. The shipping situation in apple production areas last week varied, with a stronger shipping atmosphere in the west and a weaker one in the east. Western merchants were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu rose. The shipping of general and lower - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was average, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm for this kind of goods was low. The overall shipping in Shandong was average, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. In the sales areas, the overall post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased, and the shipping slowed down. Overall, the decline in new - season apple production and quality and the low inventory strongly support the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. As cold - storage apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern. The apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. Next week, attention should be paid to the market trading atmosphere, merchants' replenishment situation, the trading situation of substitute fruits, and the weather in the main production areas [64] 3.10 Operation Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The main contract of apple futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [9][65] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract for positive arbitrage; for options, consider buying out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [10][66]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Apple futures' main contract opened with a downward gap and weakened, with a decline exceeding 2%. Despite the post - New Year cold - storage weekly de - stocking volume exceeding 100,000 tons, the terminal consumption recovery was weaker than expected. The apple futures price still has upward drivers due to factors such as the approaching Spring Festival consumption peak and the increasing cost of warehouse receipt registration, but the de - stocking rhythm of general goods and changes in the mainstream transaction price are key variables affecting the market trend [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - After the new - season apples were harvested in November 2025, the apple futures price soared to 10,000 yuan/ton due to reduced production and a higher proportion of low - quality fruits. However, the concentrated listing of seasonal fruits such as southern citrus and imported cherries diverted apple consumption, resulting in a significant lag in the market de - stocking progress compared to the same period in previous years [3] Regional Market Conditions - In the Qixia market, the trading of stored Fuji apples remained sluggish, with cold - storage shipments mainly from merchants' self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, slow sales, and the market in a weak consolidation state. In the Luochuan area, the trading atmosphere of stored Fuji apples was average, with a slight increase in merchants' packaging and shipping volume but mainly for immediate pick - up, and limited transactions of farmers' apples. In the Jingning area, the trading was relatively stable, with merchants preferentially handling their self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, and sporadic transactions mainly for high - quality goods [4] Overall Market Structure - Currently, the overall supply of cold - storage apples is sufficient, but there is a prominent structural contradiction: the market circulation volume of high - quality apples is limited, while the sales progress of low - quality apples is relatively slow. With the start of Spring Festival stocking demand, the competition for high - quality fruit sources has intensified, further highlighting the scarcity of good goods and increasing the cost of warehouse receipt registration [5] Operational Suggestions - Try to go long when the main 05 contract is below 9,500 yuan/ton. For options, buy AP05 - C - 9600 and sell AP05 - P - 9000 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is at a historically low level, providing support for apple prices. The cold storage capacity ratio has decreased, and the destocking rate is 2.17%. With the approaching of Christmas and New Year's Day, the festival boost effect is obvious. The decline in production and quality strongly supports prices. Due to the nature of apples as seasonally - produced and annually - sold storage fruits, quality issues may increase storage costs. The quantity of high - quality goods is scarce, and the proportion of average - quality goods is increasing. It is expected that the price differentiation of different - quality goods will be significant in the later stage, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, continued to fluctuate at a high level, with continuous game between long and short forces [8]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was 7197900 tons, and the cold storage inventory ratio was about 54.65%, 7.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low position, providing support for apple prices [13][36]. 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - Cold storage shipment volume is gradually increasing. As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume decreased by 0.03 percentage points compared with last week, and the destocking rate was 2.17%. In Shandong, the cold storage capacity ratio was 55.09%, with a decrease of 0.24 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold storage capacity ratio was 53.12%, with a decrease of 0.36 percentage points this week [17]. - In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 80400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The late listing of new - season apples led to a significant year - on - year decrease in export volume in October [20]. - As of December 12, the apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable. There was little trading, and e - commerce platforms purchased other varieties [32].

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market has seen a significant price increase, driven by concerns over the quality and yield of late-maturing Fuji apples due to adverse weather conditions in major production areas [1][12][19] Market Monitoring - In Shandong, the main purchasing prices for apples range from 2.6 to 3.0 yuan per jin for general quality, while higher quality apples are priced between 3.5 to 4.0 yuan per jin [3][19] - The overall trading volume in Shandong has increased, but the quality of apples is slightly lower, making it difficult to acquire high-quality products [5][19] - The market sentiment remains positive, with strong purchasing activity for quality apples, although there are concerns about the overall quality due to weather impacts [16][18] Price Trends - Since May, apple futures prices have rebounded from 7400 to nearly 8900 yuan per ton, marking an increase of approximately 1500 points [12] - The new season's apple prices have shown a significant year-on-year increase, with good quality apples commanding higher prices [18][19] Quality Concerns - The quality of apples this year is generally poor due to adverse weather conditions, leading to concerns about storage and potential diseases affecting the fruit [16][17] - The market is experiencing a shortage of high-quality apples, which is keeping prices firm, while lower quality apples are facing pressure as supply increases [17][19] Supply Chain Dynamics - The entry of apples into storage has been complicated by excessive rainfall, leading to various defects and increased storage challenges [16][19] - The overall supply from major production areas is expected to be lower than previous years, with a forecasted production decrease of 8.34% to 34.23 million tons [19]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Daily Report on October 16, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day [3] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.01, down 0.08 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8510, down 122 from the previous close [3] - AP05: 8495, down 177 from the previous close [3] - AP10: 9180, down 20 from the previous close [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Class 80 - AP01: - 910, up 155 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Class 80 - AP10: - 1580.0, up 20 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 53.27 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7% [6] - In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 1.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.84 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - Yesterday, apple prices remained stable, with a slight increase in the supply of goods in the Shandong acquisition market, mostly of average quality. The overall market in the Northwest production area was stable, and the wholesale market sales and prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first and second - class storage merchants was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the order price of apples was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial products above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the high price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, Shandong, the in - warehouse transactions of apples were few, and the current transactions were mostly general goods [8] Trading Logic - This year, the fruit diameter in some areas of Shaanxi is small, and there are water - crack problems due to continuous rainfall. The high opening price of late - maturing Fuji and high cost of futures warehouse receipt production are expected to keep the futures price oscillating slightly stronger in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that apples will oscillate strongly in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10] Group 4: Related Attached Figures - Figures include the price of Qixia First and Second - Class Paper - Bagged 80, the price of Luochuan Semi - Commercial Paper - Bagged 70, AP contract main basis, AP10 - AP01, etc. [14][16][22]

Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 109.50 today, down 0.07 from the next - working - day price; 6 kinds of fruit average wholesale price was 7.09, up 0.16 from the next - working - day price [3] - Among futures prices, AP01 was 8765, up 1 from yesterday's close; AP05 was 8672, up 11 from yesterday's close; AP10 remained unchanged at 9200 [3] - The price difference AP01 - AP05 was - 7, down 10 from the previous value; AP05 - AP10 was - 528, up 11 from the previous value; AP10 - AP01 was 435, down 1 from the previous value [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from last week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - Yesterday, the purchase price in the producing areas remained basically stable. Traders mainly purchased new - season Fuji in the northwest producing areas. Due to weather influence, the new - season apples in Shandong have not been listed in large quantities, with few purchases in the producing areas [7] - The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - The order price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the high - price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream price of apples was stable, with the price of 80 first - and second - grade apples varying according to quality [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the fruit diameter is small, and there are water - crack problems in some producing areas due to continuous rainfall. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating trend in the short term [10] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The apple futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating and strong in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, AP10 - AP01 price difference, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [15][17][23]

Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index is 109.50, up 0.07 from the next - working - day quote; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.06, up 0.13 [3] - AP01 futures price is 8744, up 111 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 8675, up 153; AP10 is 9175, down 5 [3] - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1144, down 111 from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in major Chinese producing areas is 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons [6] - In August 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume is about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume is 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume is 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - In the previous period, domestic apple transaction prices remained stable. In Shandong, continuous rainfall slowed apple coloring, with little trading at purchase points. In Shaanxi, merchants were actively ordering, and transaction prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the apple ordering price is stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream apple price is stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the apple diameter is small, and continuous rainfall has caused water - cracks in apples. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain slightly stronger in the short term [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Apples are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Group 3: Related Attachments - There are 10 related apple - related charts, including price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volumes in some markets [17][19][25]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple price trends are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji apples. The recent rise in apple futures prices is mainly due to concerns about the good fruit rate, and the prices of early - harvested Fuji and Gansu Huaniu are higher than last year, setting the tone for the late Fuji opening price [2] - The near - end trading logic focuses on the good fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji, the opening price, and the new late - Fuji price trend. The market's bet on quality issues has led to a continuous rise in the futures market. The far - end contracts are weaker, with an expectation of price decline after a high opening, but the decline may be limited [3][4] - The apple market is currently in an uptrend, but the 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The main factors influencing apple prices are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji. Eastern apples have smaller fruit sizes and may have problems like reverse greening and chicken - claw marks due to rainy weather after bag - removal. Western apples also face similar issues, and their fruit sizes are smaller than usual [2] - The opening prices of Gala and early Fuji are good, with the early - harvested Fuji price 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year and Gansu Huaniu 1 yuan/kg higher [2] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The apple market's upward momentum continues. The 10 - contract reached a new high last week, and the winning positions hold more than 4000 net long positions. The 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, if worried about a high - yield season and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (25% at 8500 - 8600) and sell call options (50% at 20 - 30) to lock in profits and reduce costs [9] - For procurement management, if worried about high purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and a shortage of good - quality new - crop apples, enterprises can buy apple futures (50% at 8300 - 8400) and sell put options (75% at 50 - 60) to lock in purchase costs [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of September 17, national cold - storage inventory decreased. Steel Union data shows 12.18 tons, a 4.14 - ton decrease from last week, and Zhuochuang data shows 14.79 tons, a 6.02 - ton decrease. Shandong's cold - storage capacity ratio decreased [10] - This week, late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removal period. Western bag - removal was postponed by a week, and the progress is similar to the east. Shandong's late Fuji may have problems with reverse greening and coloring due to rainy weather [11] - Western early - harvested Fuji prices are 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year, and most are pre - ordered by merchants. Western late Fuji will be on the market after October 5, with large - scale listing in mid - October [11] - Gansu Huaniu has smaller fruit sizes and a lower commodity rate due to previous high - temperature and drought. The price is 1 yuan/kg higher than last year, but the large amount of fruit stored by farmers may not be favorable for the market [11] - The number of trucks arriving at three major markets in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a typhoon this week. With the approaching of festivals, the number of trucks increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [12] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Focus on the sales and remaining inventory of stored Fuji, as well as the weather, bag - removal, quality, and opening price of late Fuji [17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures prices rose, but the increase in the main contract was small. The total position is at the lowest level in the past 5 years but has increased recently. The winning positions have been increasing continuously. Technically, the main contract shows a fluctuating upward trend [17] 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The apple spread structure shows significant fluctuations in nearby contracts approaching the delivery month. The 10 - contract may be the strongest [19][20] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples in the 24/25 season is 0.3 yuan/kg, affected by the price drop of stored apples. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is yet to be determined [22] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Based on previous bagging data, the 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in national apple production, but the final output may decline compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly. The quality of Gala apples makes people worried about the quality of late Fuji [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with rising prices for new season apples while old season apples are facing declining prices due to various market dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of the latest close, the main contract AP2510 is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-maturing Fuji apples [1]. - The prices for early-maturing apples, particularly the paper-bag Gala variety, are significantly higher than the same period last year, with increases of 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per jin [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The weighted price for high-quality apples in Shandong has dropped to 3.73 yuan/jin, a decline of 0.41 yuan/jin (9.90%) since early July [1]. - The old season apples are primarily concentrated in Shandong, with other regions having minimal remaining inventory [1]. - The price for early-maturing apples in Gansu's Jingning area has started at 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is approximately 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Prices - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant harvest this year [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing price expectations [4]. - Concerns over the quality of early-maturing apples, including issues with color and size, are leading to increased expectations for the opening prices of late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that apple futures prices may initially rise before stabilizing, influenced by the demand side as the harvest season concludes [5]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards higher opening prices for late-maturing Fuji apples, potentially exceeding last year's prices by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [4].

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with a notable price disparity between old and new season apples, influenced by various factors including supply, demand, and seasonal fruit competition [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the latest close, the main contract for apple futures (AP2510) is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-season Fuji apples [1]. - The old season apples, particularly in Shandong, are facing weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with a weighted price of 3.73 yuan/jin for grade 80 and above, down 9.90% from early July [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of early-season apples, particularly the paper bag Gala variety, is significantly higher than the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 0.3 to 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. - In Gansu's Jingning region, the starting price for paper bag Gala apples is between 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is about 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. - The price expectations for late-season Fuji apples are rising, with anticipated opening prices potentially exceeding last year's by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [6]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant yield and lower prices compared to previous years [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing market dynamics [2][6]. - Weather conditions have impacted apple quality, with issues such as insufficient color and smaller fruit sizes affecting early-season apples, leading to higher demand for new season apples [5][6].