研究所 多空力量持续博弈，盘面延续高位震荡 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年12月12日 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 苹果期货主力合约AP2605延续高位震荡，多空力量持续博弈。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月12日，全国冷库苹果库存量为719.79万吨，冷库库存比例约为54.65%，较去年同期（ 202412012）低7.22个百分点。库存量处于历史偏低位置，为苹果价格提供一定支撑。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：冷库出货量逐渐增加 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月12日，全国冷库库容比下降0.35个百分点，单周出库量较上周降低0.03个百 ...

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market has seen a significant price increase, driven by concerns over the quality and yield of late-maturing Fuji apples due to adverse weather conditions in major production areas [1][12][19] Market Monitoring - In Shandong, the main purchasing prices for apples range from 2.6 to 3.0 yuan per jin for general quality, while higher quality apples are priced between 3.5 to 4.0 yuan per jin [3][19] - The overall trading volume in Shandong has increased, but the quality of apples is slightly lower, making it difficult to acquire high-quality products [5][19] - The market sentiment remains positive, with strong purchasing activity for quality apples, although there are concerns about the overall quality due to weather impacts [16][18] Price Trends - Since May, apple futures prices have rebounded from 7400 to nearly 8900 yuan per ton, marking an increase of approximately 1500 points [12] - The new season's apple prices have shown a significant year-on-year increase, with good quality apples commanding higher prices [18][19] Quality Concerns - The quality of apples this year is generally poor due to adverse weather conditions, leading to concerns about storage and potential diseases affecting the fruit [16][17] - The market is experiencing a shortage of high-quality apples, which is keeping prices firm, while lower quality apples are facing pressure as supply increases [17][19] Supply Chain Dynamics - The entry of apples into storage has been complicated by excessive rainfall, leading to various defects and increased storage challenges [16][19] - The overall supply from major production areas is expected to be lower than previous years, with a forecasted production decrease of 8.34% to 34.23 million tons [19]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Daily Report on October 16, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day [3] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.01, down 0.08 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8510, down 122 from the previous close [3] - AP05: 8495, down 177 from the previous close [3] - AP10: 9180, down 20 from the previous close [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Class 80 - AP01: - 910, up 155 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Class 80 - AP10: - 1580.0, up 20 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 53.27 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7% [6] - In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 1.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.84 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - Yesterday, apple prices remained stable, with a slight increase in the supply of goods in the Shandong acquisition market, mostly of average quality. The overall market in the Northwest production area was stable, and the wholesale market sales and prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first and second - class storage merchants was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the order price of apples was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial products above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the high price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, Shandong, the in - warehouse transactions of apples were few, and the current transactions were mostly general goods [8] Trading Logic - This year, the fruit diameter in some areas of Shaanxi is small, and there are water - crack problems due to continuous rainfall. The high opening price of late - maturing Fuji and high cost of futures warehouse receipt production are expected to keep the futures price oscillating slightly stronger in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that apples will oscillate strongly in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10] Group 4: Related Attached Figures - Figures include the price of Qixia First and Second - Class Paper - Bagged 80, the price of Luochuan Semi - Commercial Paper - Bagged 70, AP contract main basis, AP10 - AP01, etc. [14][16][22]

Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 109.50 today, down 0.07 from the next - working - day price; 6 kinds of fruit average wholesale price was 7.09, up 0.16 from the next - working - day price [3] - Among futures prices, AP01 was 8765, up 1 from yesterday's close; AP05 was 8672, up 11 from yesterday's close; AP10 remained unchanged at 9200 [3] - The price difference AP01 - AP05 was - 7, down 10 from the previous value; AP05 - AP10 was - 528, up 11 from the previous value; AP10 - AP01 was 435, down 1 from the previous value [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from last week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - Yesterday, the purchase price in the producing areas remained basically stable. Traders mainly purchased new - season Fuji in the northwest producing areas. Due to weather influence, the new - season apples in Shandong have not been listed in large quantities, with few purchases in the producing areas [7] - The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - The order price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the high - price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream price of apples was stable, with the price of 80 first - and second - grade apples varying according to quality [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the fruit diameter is small, and there are water - crack problems in some producing areas due to continuous rainfall. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating trend in the short term [10] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The apple futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating and strong in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, AP10 - AP01 price difference, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [15][17][23]

Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index is 109.50, up 0.07 from the next - working - day quote; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.06, up 0.13 [3] - AP01 futures price is 8744, up 111 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 8675, up 153; AP10 is 9175, down 5 [3] - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1144, down 111 from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in major Chinese producing areas is 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons [6] - In August 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume is about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume is 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume is 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - In the previous period, domestic apple transaction prices remained stable. In Shandong, continuous rainfall slowed apple coloring, with little trading at purchase points. In Shaanxi, merchants were actively ordering, and transaction prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the apple ordering price is stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream apple price is stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the apple diameter is small, and continuous rainfall has caused water - cracks in apples. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain slightly stronger in the short term [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Apples are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Group 3: Related Attachments - There are 10 related apple - related charts, including price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volumes in some markets [17][19][25]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple price trends are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji apples. The recent rise in apple futures prices is mainly due to concerns about the good fruit rate, and the prices of early - harvested Fuji and Gansu Huaniu are higher than last year, setting the tone for the late Fuji opening price [2] - The near - end trading logic focuses on the good fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji, the opening price, and the new late - Fuji price trend. The market's bet on quality issues has led to a continuous rise in the futures market. The far - end contracts are weaker, with an expectation of price decline after a high opening, but the decline may be limited [3][4] - The apple market is currently in an uptrend, but the 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The main factors influencing apple prices are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji. Eastern apples have smaller fruit sizes and may have problems like reverse greening and chicken - claw marks due to rainy weather after bag - removal. Western apples also face similar issues, and their fruit sizes are smaller than usual [2] - The opening prices of Gala and early Fuji are good, with the early - harvested Fuji price 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year and Gansu Huaniu 1 yuan/kg higher [2] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The apple market's upward momentum continues. The 10 - contract reached a new high last week, and the winning positions hold more than 4000 net long positions. The 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, if worried about a high - yield season and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (25% at 8500 - 8600) and sell call options (50% at 20 - 30) to lock in profits and reduce costs [9] - For procurement management, if worried about high purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and a shortage of good - quality new - crop apples, enterprises can buy apple futures (50% at 8300 - 8400) and sell put options (75% at 50 - 60) to lock in purchase costs [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of September 17, national cold - storage inventory decreased. Steel Union data shows 12.18 tons, a 4.14 - ton decrease from last week, and Zhuochuang data shows 14.79 tons, a 6.02 - ton decrease. Shandong's cold - storage capacity ratio decreased [10] - This week, late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removal period. Western bag - removal was postponed by a week, and the progress is similar to the east. Shandong's late Fuji may have problems with reverse greening and coloring due to rainy weather [11] - Western early - harvested Fuji prices are 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year, and most are pre - ordered by merchants. Western late Fuji will be on the market after October 5, with large - scale listing in mid - October [11] - Gansu Huaniu has smaller fruit sizes and a lower commodity rate due to previous high - temperature and drought. The price is 1 yuan/kg higher than last year, but the large amount of fruit stored by farmers may not be favorable for the market [11] - The number of trucks arriving at three major markets in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a typhoon this week. With the approaching of festivals, the number of trucks increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [12] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Focus on the sales and remaining inventory of stored Fuji, as well as the weather, bag - removal, quality, and opening price of late Fuji [17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures prices rose, but the increase in the main contract was small. The total position is at the lowest level in the past 5 years but has increased recently. The winning positions have been increasing continuously. Technically, the main contract shows a fluctuating upward trend [17] 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The apple spread structure shows significant fluctuations in nearby contracts approaching the delivery month. The 10 - contract may be the strongest [19][20] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples in the 24/25 season is 0.3 yuan/kg, affected by the price drop of stored apples. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is yet to be determined [22] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Based on previous bagging data, the 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in national apple production, but the final output may decline compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly. The quality of Gala apples makes people worried about the quality of late Fuji [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with rising prices for new season apples while old season apples are facing declining prices due to various market dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of the latest close, the main contract AP2510 is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-maturing Fuji apples [1]. - The prices for early-maturing apples, particularly the paper-bag Gala variety, are significantly higher than the same period last year, with increases of 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per jin [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The weighted price for high-quality apples in Shandong has dropped to 3.73 yuan/jin, a decline of 0.41 yuan/jin (9.90%) since early July [1]. - The old season apples are primarily concentrated in Shandong, with other regions having minimal remaining inventory [1]. - The price for early-maturing apples in Gansu's Jingning area has started at 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is approximately 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Prices - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant harvest this year [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing price expectations [4]. - Concerns over the quality of early-maturing apples, including issues with color and size, are leading to increased expectations for the opening prices of late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that apple futures prices may initially rise before stabilizing, influenced by the demand side as the harvest season concludes [5]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards higher opening prices for late-maturing Fuji apples, potentially exceeding last year's prices by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [4].

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with a notable price disparity between old and new season apples, influenced by various factors including supply, demand, and seasonal fruit competition [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the latest close, the main contract for apple futures (AP2510) is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-season Fuji apples [1]. - The old season apples, particularly in Shandong, are facing weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with a weighted price of 3.73 yuan/jin for grade 80 and above, down 9.90% from early July [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of early-season apples, particularly the paper bag Gala variety, is significantly higher than the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 0.3 to 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. - In Gansu's Jingning region, the starting price for paper bag Gala apples is between 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is about 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. - The price expectations for late-season Fuji apples are rising, with anticipated opening prices potentially exceeding last year's by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [6]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant yield and lower prices compared to previous years [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing market dynamics [2][6]. - Weather conditions have impacted apple quality, with issues such as insufficient color and smaller fruit sizes affecting early-season apples, leading to higher demand for new season apples [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. Due to high temperatures, the large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed, which, combined with the low old - crop inventory, boosts the short - term apple price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the Apple 2510 contract, with the upper pressure on the 2510 contract at 8,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the overall shipment speed has slowed. The large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed due to high temperatures. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for the Business of Fresh Apple Futures", which may affect aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery products, and packaging. Overall, the short - term apple price is boosted [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [10]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in apple futures was 2,912 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. 3.3 Spot Market - As of August 8, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji apples of grade 80 and above from farmers in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of grade 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.4 Industry Chain 3.4.1 Supply Side - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed has slowed slightly. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have decreased, with Gansu's shipment almost finished [26]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - As of August 7, the average daily number of trucks arriving at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg, a 0.62% decrease from the previous period; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, a 0.31% increase from the previous period [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.1 yuan/kg, a 0.42% decrease from the previous period [37]. - In June 2023, China's total export of fresh apples was 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [40]. 3.5 Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [41]. 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented, but no specific data is provided [43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The apple market currently shows obvious off - season characteristics, with cooling fruits seizing market share. The overall trading atmosphere in the production areas is not strong, and merchants purchase on - demand. The inventory trading focuses on high - cost - effective goods. The current sales speed is slower than the same period last year, but the inventory level is low, so the price has bottom support. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable, and later attention should be paid to price fluctuations due to quality decline. The extremely early - maturing apples in the west are on the market, with prices slightly higher than last year. Future attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Apple Weekly Views and Outlook - This week, bagging work in various production areas has ended, and the labor shortage has eased. The trading of apples in storage is stable and light. Merchants purchase on - demand, with only a small number of increased inquiries but limited actual transactions. In the western production areas, merchants mainly ship to the market themselves, and some cold storages still have water - rotting spots. Extremely early - maturing apples such as Tengmu and Guangguo Chenyang have been launched, with prices slightly higher than last year. The Shandong production area continues to focus on trading high - cost - effective goods, and the sales of large fruits are slow. The consumption of cooling seasonal fruits such as peaches, lychees, and melons in the terminal market has increased, significantly impacting the apple market [5]. 2. Market Price Trend - The active contract price of apples, the price of the main contract, and the basis have their respective trends, with price ranges from 6,000.00 to 8,500.00 [9]. - The spot prices of apples in the main production areas are stable and strong, including the market price trends of different varieties and grades in different regions such as Luochuan, Qixia, Penglai, and Yiyuan [15]. - The wholesale prices of Fuji apples and the monitoring prices of key fruits (such as pineapples, grapes, and watermelons) have their own trends over different years and weeks [21]. 3. Shipping Volume and Inventory - The shipping volume and inventory of cold - storage apples have shown different trends over different years and weeks, with the shipping volume ranging from 0 to 500,000 tons and the inventory from 0 to 12 million tons [27]. 4. Monthly Spread - There are monthly spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, and 10 - 01 spread, with different price ranges and trends over different years and dates [29][31].