1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures are expected to continue oscillating. The domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with a high - level soybean crushing volume, but the downstream demand is weak, leading to continuous accumulation of soybean meal inventory. Meanwhile, the good weather in US soybean - producing areas strengthens the expectation of a loose supply, but there are also supporting factors such as the continuous strengthening of Brazilian premiums and the key price level of US soybeans. Also, the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies causes concerns about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [6]. - The soybean oil futures are in a stage of wide - range oscillation. The concentrated arrival of soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing volume, combined with the seasonal off - season of terminal consumption and weak downstream purchasing demand, result in continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory. However, there is support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors due to the strengthening of Brazilian soybean discounts [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a sideways oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, an increase of 130,800 tons or 18.91% from the previous week. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills, high - level soybean crushing volume, weak downstream demand, good weather in US soybean - producing areas, strengthening of Brazilian premiums, the key price level of US soybeans, and the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies all affect the market. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080 [9][10]. 3.1.3 Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the main funds are strongly short - side, with a multi - short flow of - 95.5. The fund energy is - 62.3, indicating a relatively large outflow of funds. The multi - short divergence is 99.7, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [14]. 3.1.4 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [18][20][23]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week. The concentrated arrival of soybeans, high - level oil mill crushing volume, seasonal off - season of terminal consumption, and weak downstream purchasing demand lead to inventory accumulation. There is also support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with slightly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with relatively short - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to maintain wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory of soybean oil and soybeans [41][42][46]

Group 1: Company Performance and Forecasts - BMW confirmed its 2025 performance outlook, expecting a stable pre-tax profit compared to the previous year, with an operating profit margin of 5% to 7% in its automotive business, despite warning of a "significant" impact from U.S. tariffs on its Q2 performance [1] - Mercedes-Benz maintained its pre-tariff performance expectations but indicated that if current U.S. tariff policies continue, its annual performance would be "significantly below" previous years [1] - Ford announced a withdrawal of its 2025 performance forecast, citing potential pre-tax profit decline of approximately $1.5 billion due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 2: Industry Impact and Supply Chain Concerns - The automotive industry is facing supply chain disruptions and price increases due to U.S. tariff policies, with dealers experiencing inventory shortages; for instance, a dealer in New Jersey received only 18 vehicles instead of the usual 100 to 120 [3] - Toyota projected a 34.9% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, attributing this to the impact of U.S. government tariff policies [3] - Ford listed seven risk factors related to U.S. tariffs, including potential industry-wide supply chain disruptions and retaliatory tariffs from other countries [2]

Core Point - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed that auto parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico are part of the USMCA and will be exempt from a 25% tariff effective May 3 [1] Group 1 - The exemption applies specifically to auto parts under the USMCA agreement [1] - The 25% tariff is set to take effect on May 3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to a significant decline in global stock markets, resulting in a loss of $6.6 trillion in market value, severely impacting investors' 401k accounts [1][2] Group 1: Protest Movement - The "Hands Off!" movement has organized protests in over 1,000 cities across the U.S., supported by various advocacy groups addressing issues from abortion rights to climate change [3][4] - The largest gathering took place at the National Mall in Washington, D.C., where protesters held signs with messages such as "Penguins Against Tariffs" and "Make My 401k Great Again" [4] Group 2: Economic Impact - The stock market experienced a two-day sell-off coinciding with the implementation of a comprehensive 10% tariff, leading to a market value loss of $6.6 trillion [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the long-term effects of federal budget cuts on research and infrastructure, particularly the reduction of funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), which is seen as critical for biomedical research [12] Group 3: Political Ramifications - The protests have significant political implications, with organizers leveraging Musk's unpopularity to mobilize protesters and voters [11] - The recent electoral defeat of a Musk-supported candidate in Wisconsin is viewed as a referendum on the controversial billionaire [11] Group 4: Tesla and Musk's Role - Elon Musk has become a focal point of the protests, particularly due to his role in the government efficiency department (DOGE) and the associated budget cuts [7][10] - Protests against Tesla have occurred in various locations, including demonstrations in front of Tesla showrooms in cities like Berlin [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Combining macro, fundamental, and technical aspects, the short - term trend of the 2505 contract of soybean meal may be range - bound [11][31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - US core inflation rebounded in January 2025, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month and significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.1%, which triggered market fluctuations [4]. - Trump's erratic trade tariff policies have caused market panic and global economic instability [5]. - US trade tariffs and inflation affect economic instability [11][30]. Fundamental Analysis Cost End - China has imposed a 10% tariff on US soybeans, and US soybeans are in a weak position. South American weather has improved, with a stable expectation of a Brazilian soybean harvest and improved crop conditions in Argentina [6]. - In the March USDA supply - demand report, the 2024/25 US soybean production is 4.366 billion bushels, 4.9% higher than the previous year; crushing is 2.41 billion bushels, 5.4% higher; exports are 1.825 billion bushels, 7.7% higher; and the ending inventory is 380 million bushels, 11.1% higher than the previous year, reaching a five - year high. The global soybean supply and use forecast shows almost unchanged production, increased crushing volume, and decreased ending inventory [7]. - As of March 16, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean was 69.8%. Brazil is about to enter the export peak, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has started to rise. If the tariff war continues, it may continue to increase in the future [18]. - The net sales of 2024/25 US soybeans in the week of March 7 - 13 were only 350,000 tons, a 53% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average, lower than expected. If the tariff war continues, US soybean exports to China will slow down [14]. Domestic Supply End of Soybean Meal - In March, the arrival of soybeans was tight, the oil mill operating rate decreased, and the supply of soybean meal was tight. The arrival of soybeans in March was 5.124 million tons, a 17.85% month - on - month decrease and a 12.19% year - on - year decrease [19]. - In the 12th week (March 16 - 22), due to a shortage of soybeans, the production capacity of factories decreased. The total crushing volume of 136 domestic imported soybean processing oil mills was 1.3827 million tons, a decrease of 243,900 tons from the previous week. The output of soybean meal from 166 oil mills was 1.1206 million tons, a decrease of 191,900 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 36.39%, a 6.23% decrease from the previous week [20]. Domestic Demand End of Soybean Meal - In the 12th week (March 16 - 22), the trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills showed a slight recovery, with an increase in far - month transactions. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean meal was 706,300 tons, an increase of 334,700 tons from the previous week. The average trading price was 3,429.30 yuan/ton, a 3.64% decrease from the previous week. The spot trading volume was 91,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, and the basis trading volume was 614,500 tons, an increase of 366,300 tons from the previous week. The weekly提货量 of domestic soybean meal was 691,600 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week [23]. Inventory - As of March 21, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 7.1207 million tons. From March 8 - 14, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 3.641 million tons, a decrease of 591,000 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory from March 8 - 14 was 674,000 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous week, and the contract volume was 2.522 million tons, a 15.22% decrease from the previous week. As of March 15 - 21, the current inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.63 days, and the overall physical inventory level of domestic feed enterprises this year is slightly higher than last year [25][27]. Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market showed a trend of first strengthening and then weakening, with a resistance and decline pattern. It is expected to seek support at 2,800 yuan [29].