2025年秋季，美国大豆农场主面临历史性危机：中国买家一份新订单都没有。 印度自身大豆产量不低，国内大量农民靠种大豆谋生，莫迪政府若放开进口将面临巨大民意压力。 而美国大豆期货价格三年暴跌 40%，现在每蒲式耳10.10美元，已低于预估生产成本11.03美元，农民种得越多亏得越多。 作为曾经占美国大豆出口一半以上的最大客户，中国的退出导致全美库存积压超700万吨，价格跌至生产成本线以下。 与此同时，阿 根廷主动提升高粱出口标准以适应中国需求，南美国家正加速取代美国在全球农产品供应链中的地位。 美国中西部广袤的农田里，金黄的豆荚在收割季低垂，却少了往年的繁忙景象。 爱荷华州农民蒂姆·麦克斯韦站在仓库前发愁，他的仓库里堆满了卖不出去的大豆。 种了几十年地的他第一次遇到如此冷清的市场，去年此时中国买家早已预订了约1300万吨美国大豆，而今年此时一份订单都没有。 这场危机始于贸易关税政策。 当美国对华大豆关税飙升至245%时，中国进口商算了一笔账：原本每吨300美元的美国大豆，加税后比巴西大豆贵出近60%。 价格杠 杆迅速生效，2023年第三季度中国从美国进口大豆量暴跌至五年最低，而同期巴西对华出口激增40%。 美国 ...

Group 1 - The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI decreased from 53 to 51.4 in September 2025, indicating a continued but weak expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month [1][2] - Domestic new orders in the Australian manufacturing sector slightly declined due to a weakening domestic market, while new export orders also fell, primarily impacted by U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - Manufacturing output growth slowed in September, but employment in the sector increased for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a positive trend in job creation despite the slowdown in production [2][3] Group 2 - Supply conditions in the Australian manufacturing sector worsened in September, with extended delivery times due to supply shortages, shipping delays, and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - Input cost inflation reached a five-month high, driven by rising raw material and fuel prices, leading manufacturers to increase product prices, although both input and selling price increases remained below historical averages [2][3] - Despite the challenges, manufacturers maintained an optimistic outlook for future sales and output growth, although business confidence dropped to a three-month low due to concerns over the negative impact of trade tariff policies [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that inflation in the U.S. is ongoing, significantly impacting household expenses due to rising prices of essential goods and services [2] Price Increases - Ground beef prices have reached a historic high of $6.63 per pound, driven by a 75-year low in U.S. cattle inventory, drought-related feed cost increases, and high tariffs of 35% and 50% on beef imports from Canada and Brazil respectively [2] - Banana prices have surged to a historic high of $0.67 per pound, primarily due to tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% imposed on major banana-exporting countries like Mexico and Ecuador [2] Contributing Factors - Domestic production declines and avian influenza outbreaks are contributing to rising prices of other goods, with orange production hitting a near 90-year low, pushing prices close to historical highs [2] - The avian influenza may lead to new challenges for egg prices in the fall [2] - Energy costs are also rising, with electricity prices reaching new highs, increasing monthly expenses for average households [2] Economic Challenges - The report outlines multiple challenges facing the U.S. economy, including trade barriers, supply chain bottlenecks, and extreme weather impacts, all contributing to a comprehensive rise in living costs for ordinary families [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increasing expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest has led to a slight decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The domestic soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak external performance, with limited upside potential for prices due to inventory pressure. - The current supply of live pigs is steadily increasing, while demand is in the off - season. The impact of macro - policies still dominates the market, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak, with opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on price rebounds [20]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 fell 0.33% to 3000 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes showed mixed changes. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 remained unchanged at 14075 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live pigs rose, and the overnight CBOT US soybean main contract dropped 1.21% [2]. 3.2 Weather in Major Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with good soil moisture. There will be scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday in both the west and east, with above - normal temperatures until Tuesday. Future weather will have intermittent showers, and the temperature will drop on Wednesday and be near or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture can relieve crop stress [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 1.829 billion tons, and corn production is expected to be 1.409 billion tons. - On July 31, the US soybean import cost reached a 4 - month low, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean import costs also declined. - On July 30, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased, but the average trading price ended a four - day decline. - Forecasts for US soybean and soybean meal export net sales in different market years were given. - As of July 23, Argentine farmers' soybean sales data were reported. - As of July 25, the national main oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased for twelve consecutive weeks but was lower than in 2024 and the three - year average. - Brazil is expected to export 213 million tons of soybean meal in July 2025, up 6% from last year. - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The USDA estimated US soybean production at 1.18 billion tons, while analysts' surveys estimated it at 43.2 billion bushels. - In July, China's PMI dropped to 49.3% due to factors such as the traditional production off - season and natural disasters, with different performances in key industries [5][6][7]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures hit a low since April due to favorable weather. Trade tariffs put the US at a disadvantage in soybean export competition. The decline in US soybean prices has increased China's soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market shows a strong - domestic - weak - external pattern, with limited rebound momentum for futures and potential price constraints in August due to inventory. Oil mills are adjusting strategies to promote far - month basis sales [17][18][19]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, while demand is in the off - season. There is no new policy guidance currently, and the market is mainly dominated by macro - policies. Near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on price rebounds are recommended [20].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season is approaching, and the SCFIS has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared to last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between the 08 and 10 contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season is about to appear. The SCFIS has dropped to around 2400 points. Most shipping companies have slightly lowered their quotes for late July, and the quotes for August from some airlines remain at the late - July level. Historically, the peak usually appears in the third week of July, and freight rates in late August will return to the early - July level. The 08 contract's discount space is limited. Focus on shorting opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage between 08 - 10 contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 14 to 18, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade increased steadily, which will support the export container shipping market in the long term [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose, and the German index reached a new high since February 2022. However, Trump's tariff announcement and the EU's counter - measures bring uncertainty. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is in sync with European routes, and the spot market booking price has slightly declined. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports decreased by 5.2% [9]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US CPI increased, and import prices showed upward pressure. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports decreased by 2.4% and 13.4% respectively [10]. - **Israeli Ports**: Due to the blockade by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the Eilat Port in Israel has stopped operations, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and cause security concerns [10]. - **Trade Policies**: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may reach a trade agreement with India soon. The US has also set different tariff rates for other countries [10]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The Yemeni Houthi rebels have prohibited ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships have been sunk in the Red Sea [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 21, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 0.9% compared to July 14, while the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 2.8% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on July 21, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and trading volumes [6].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures are expected to continue oscillating. The domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with a high - level soybean crushing volume, but the downstream demand is weak, leading to continuous accumulation of soybean meal inventory. Meanwhile, the good weather in US soybean - producing areas strengthens the expectation of a loose supply, but there are also supporting factors such as the continuous strengthening of Brazilian premiums and the key price level of US soybeans. Also, the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies causes concerns about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [6]. - The soybean oil futures are in a stage of wide - range oscillation. The concentrated arrival of soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing volume, combined with the seasonal off - season of terminal consumption and weak downstream purchasing demand, result in continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory. However, there is support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors due to the strengthening of Brazilian soybean discounts [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a sideways oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, an increase of 130,800 tons or 18.91% from the previous week. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills, high - level soybean crushing volume, weak downstream demand, good weather in US soybean - producing areas, strengthening of Brazilian premiums, the key price level of US soybeans, and the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies all affect the market. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080 [9][10]. 3.1.3 Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the main funds are strongly short - side, with a multi - short flow of - 95.5. The fund energy is - 62.3, indicating a relatively large outflow of funds. The multi - short divergence is 99.7, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [14]. 3.1.4 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [18][20][23]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week. The concentrated arrival of soybeans, high - level oil mill crushing volume, seasonal off - season of terminal consumption, and weak downstream purchasing demand lead to inventory accumulation. There is also support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with slightly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with relatively short - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to maintain wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory of soybean oil and soybeans [41][42][46]

Group 1: Company Performance and Forecasts - BMW confirmed its 2025 performance outlook, expecting a stable pre-tax profit compared to the previous year, with an operating profit margin of 5% to 7% in its automotive business, despite warning of a "significant" impact from U.S. tariffs on its Q2 performance [1] - Mercedes-Benz maintained its pre-tariff performance expectations but indicated that if current U.S. tariff policies continue, its annual performance would be "significantly below" previous years [1] - Ford announced a withdrawal of its 2025 performance forecast, citing potential pre-tax profit decline of approximately $1.5 billion due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 2: Industry Impact and Supply Chain Concerns - The automotive industry is facing supply chain disruptions and price increases due to U.S. tariff policies, with dealers experiencing inventory shortages; for instance, a dealer in New Jersey received only 18 vehicles instead of the usual 100 to 120 [3] - Toyota projected a 34.9% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, attributing this to the impact of U.S. government tariff policies [3] - Ford listed seven risk factors related to U.S. tariffs, including potential industry-wide supply chain disruptions and retaliatory tariffs from other countries [2]

Core Point - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed that auto parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico are part of the USMCA and will be exempt from a 25% tariff effective May 3 [1] Group 1 - The exemption applies specifically to auto parts under the USMCA agreement [1] - The 25% tariff is set to take effect on May 3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to a significant decline in global stock markets, resulting in a loss of $6.6 trillion in market value, severely impacting investors' 401k accounts [1][2] Group 1: Protest Movement - The "Hands Off!" movement has organized protests in over 1,000 cities across the U.S., supported by various advocacy groups addressing issues from abortion rights to climate change [3][4] - The largest gathering took place at the National Mall in Washington, D.C., where protesters held signs with messages such as "Penguins Against Tariffs" and "Make My 401k Great Again" [4] Group 2: Economic Impact - The stock market experienced a two-day sell-off coinciding with the implementation of a comprehensive 10% tariff, leading to a market value loss of $6.6 trillion [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the long-term effects of federal budget cuts on research and infrastructure, particularly the reduction of funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), which is seen as critical for biomedical research [12] Group 3: Political Ramifications - The protests have significant political implications, with organizers leveraging Musk's unpopularity to mobilize protesters and voters [11] - The recent electoral defeat of a Musk-supported candidate in Wisconsin is viewed as a referendum on the controversial billionaire [11] Group 4: Tesla and Musk's Role - Elon Musk has become a focal point of the protests, particularly due to his role in the government efficiency department (DOGE) and the associated budget cuts [7][10] - Protests against Tesla have occurred in various locations, including demonstrations in front of Tesla showrooms in cities like Berlin [10]