Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on non-ferrous metal stocks, particularly under supply constraints, anticipating strong performance in the upcoming months [2]. Core Insights - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to shift the tin supply-demand balance from slight surplus to slight shortage in 2025 [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in aluminum demand and a reduction in inventory levels, indicating a positive trend for aluminum prices and profitability in the sector [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in strategic minor metals such as tin, antimony, and cobalt due to supply constraints and rising demand [8]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 30,247.68 billion [4]. - Recent performance metrics show a 6.3% increase over the past month and a 34.0% increase over the past six months for the sector [5]. - The report notes that copper inventories have reached a turning point, with ongoing supply-demand conflicts in the mining and smelting sectors [7]. Aluminum Industry Insights - Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has decreased to 869,000 tons, reflecting a 1.5% reduction week-on-week, indicating improving demand [7]. - The report forecasts continued improvement in aluminum fundamentals as the peak season approaches, with expectations of profit recovery in the electrolytic aluminum industry [7]. Copper Industry Insights - The report indicates a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper inventory to 352,900 tons, down by 18,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [7]. - The report suggests that the copper market is experiencing heightened tensions between mining and smelting operations, which could impact future pricing [7]. Minor Metals Insights - The report anticipates a significant increase in tin production from Alphamin, with a projected output of 20,000 tons in 2025, which could be affected by the recent suspension of operations [8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and antimony production, such as Xingye Silver Tin and Hunan Gold [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debt restructuring and reorganization of real estate companies, emphasizing that returning to normal operations relies on market conditions [2] - The traditional marketing peak season "Golden March and Silver April" is approaching, with an increase in both the quantity and quality of new launches, suggesting that overall market activity is expected to remain high [3] - In 2025, there will be a significant reduction in pre-supply land, reflecting local regulatory wisdom and determination, with cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu demonstrating strategic stability [4] Group 2 - The article highlights that major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a strong start to new home transactions in 2025, with February's transaction volume leading and a year-on-year increase of over 20% in the first two months [4] - Chengdu and Hefei are showing signs of stabilization in the second-tier market, with Chengdu's new home transactions likely to continue at high levels and Hefei expected to see a phase of recovery [5] - Over 56% of neighborhoods in core cities have seen a month-on-month increase in housing prices, indicating a warming market that extends to first-time homebuyers [6] Group 3 - The land auction supply and demand scale has decreased, with a notable drop in the monitored supply area of 615 million square meters, down 34% week-on-week, and a transaction area of 126 million square meters, down 75% [7] - The article mentions various projects under construction and management, including the signing of a "Party Building Joint Construction" project by Blue Le Group and the management of luxury residential projects by China Overseas [7] - The high-end residential market in China is undergoing a transformation from "scale competition" to "value cultivation," focusing on delivery quality and customer experience [9]

3月供应稳步复苏，环比倍增，与去年同期仍有差距，但也达到了年内供应高点，从推盘结构来看，仍以 主城区改善项目为主，叠加"金三银四"为传统营销旺季，新房成交大概率环比持增。 ◎ 文 / 杨科伟 俞倩倩 3月供应环比倍增，迎来年内高点。 不同能级城市呈现显著分化行情：一线推盘积极性依旧较高，3月单月 环比倍增。二线供应环比增幅不及一线显著。三四线3月供应迎来了集中爆发期，经历了年初低迷，3月供 应同环比齐增。 从供给结构来看，重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为37%、51%和12%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需为 辅的供应结构。 7成以上城市以主城为供应主力。 预判后市，我们认为，3月供给"量质双增"叠加营销助 力，核心一二线城市 新房成交大概率环比涨幅多集中在30%-50%。 规模：28城3月供应环比倍增 京广深杭等集中放量 01 3月恰逢"金三银四"成交旺季，房企推盘积极性稳步上升。据CRIC调研，3月28个重点城市预计新增商品住 宅供应面积721万平方米，环比倍增166%，同比下降36%，一季度累计同比下降28%。从绝对量来看，受 土地成交约束，房企推盘量已大不如前，不过单月规模还是略好于去年10月水平，达到了2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in China continued to stabilize in February 2025, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving a sales operating amount of 188.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [10][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - In February 2025, the top 100 real estate companies maintained a low sales performance level, with a total sales operating amount of 188.12 billion yuan, which is a 1.2% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - The sales thresholds for different tiers of companies showed mixed changes, with the sales operating amount thresholds for the top 20 and top 30 companies decreasing by 4.8% and 11.7% to 5.17 billion yuan and 2.86 billion yuan, respectively [12]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The market is expected to see an increase in supply in March, coinciding with the traditional peak sales season known as "Golden March and Silver April," which may lead to a month-on-month increase in transactions [15]. - However, due to last year's high base effect, year-on-year comparisons may remain flat or show a slight decline, with some cities potentially experiencing localized "small spring" recoveries [15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is experiencing a mixed performance as the traditional peak season approaches, with signs of a potential recovery but still facing challenges due to stagnant policies and market expectations [2][6][7]. Market Performance - In Shenzhen, the new project Zhongzhou Yingxi Phase III launched 780 units with over 2,900 registrations, but did not achieve a "daylight" sale, with over 500 units sold on the opening day [3][12]. - As of February 23, Shenzhen's first-hand residential sales totaled 1,240 units, while second-hand sales reached 2,610 units, showing a significant decline compared to January [4]. - In Guangzhou, the second-hand market saw a seasonal adjustment with 2,695 transactions in the first half of February, a 55.8% month-on-month decrease, with most districts experiencing a significant drop in sales [5][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new residential properties in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen remains low due to strict controls on land sales, with Guangzhou's land supply down 43% year-on-year in 2024 [15][16]. - Shenzhen's new residential supply in 2024 is projected to be the lowest in six years, with a 27.7% year-on-year decrease in supply area [16][17]. - The limited supply may lead to a stabilization of both price and volume in the market, as fewer options could make remaining properties more attractive to buyers [20][21]. Market Outlook - Despite the current challenges, some industry players believe that the traditional peak season of "golden March and silver April" could still be promising due to reduced supply and increased buyer interest [21][23]. - The second-hand market is gradually becoming more active, and with developers increasing their sales pace, new home transactions may further stimulate the second-hand market [23]. - There are expectations that upcoming policy changes could boost market sentiment and lead to increased transactions in March [23].