黑色建材日报 2026-02-27 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.42%）。当日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 195.24 万手，环比减少 36289 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3130 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3218 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.55%）。 当日注册仓单 350770 吨, 环比增加 1765 吨。 主力合约持仓 ...

发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日高开高走，日内偏强。今日美伊谈判，后续进程影响宏观面情绪，若地缘 局势升级，避险情绪或利好铜价，基本面来看，假期间上游冶炼负荷相对正常，后续铜 供应以高位稳定为主，SMM 数据显示，1 月产量较预期多 1.57 万吨，预计 2 月回归正 常。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜预计产量环比减少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。下游工厂尚未开启完全的复产复工，整体市场交投活跃度低，同时由于假期期间 下游需求端暂停，上游产量正常，故铜社会库存量大幅累积增加。临近金三银四预期， 但目前来看，现货市场交投情绪冷清，库存高位压制盘面价格，宏观情绪支撑有色及贵 金属反弹，旺季启动后，下游高价接受度提升，铜价或企稳偏强。 【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：震荡偏强 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜高开高走，日内偏强。 现货方 ...

周四化工ETF上涨0.21%，跑赢上证指数0.22个百分点，消息面上： 化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映 相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 1、盐湖提锂: 2月25日，津巴布韦一周之内再出禁令，暂停所有精矿出口。26年津巴布韦产量规模约 20.8万吨LCE，占全球供给约10%，暂停单月影响约1.7万吨，或推动全球锂盐供应短期紧张，利好国内 盐湖锂提企业。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82%。 2、磷化工: 2月18日，特朗普签署行政令，援引《国防生产法》将元素磷（elemental phosphorus）及草 甘膦等关键除草剂纳入国防关键物资，并明确要求任何实施规则不得危及国内生产商的持续经营能力。 此前2025年11月，美国内政部及USGS已新将磷酸盐纳入关键矿产 ...

截至2月26日9点50分，石化ETF（159731）强势上行涨1.22%，持仓股盐湖股份、蓝晓科技、藏格 矿业等涨幅居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计11.53亿 元。石化ETF最新份额达17.41亿份，最新规模18.54亿元。 每日经济新闻 根据百川盈孚，2月25日分散染料市场均价为2.5万元/吨，较上周上涨19.05%，较上月上涨 38.89%，较去年同期上涨47.06%。春节后印染行业将进入传统生产旺季，下游备货需求正在释放。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 中银证券认为，展望后市，短期内分散染料核心中间体的供给缺口难以弥补，预计中间体价格有望 继续冲高，叠加"金三银四"需求旺季，预计近期分散染料价格有望继续上涨；中长期需观察终端需求能 否有效承接上游价格传导。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 展望2026年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反内卷"等 ...

Market Overview - The first trading day of the Year of the Horse (February 24) saw A-shares open positively, with the ChiNext index rising by up to 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.87% [1][14] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][14] Sector Performance - The chemical sector continued to rise, with active performances in phosphate chemicals and fertilizers, leading to several stocks, including Hebang Biotechnology, hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The Chemical ETF (516020) surged by 3.42%, attracting 222 million yuan in the previous five trading days [1][14] Precious Metals and Commodities - Following the Spring Festival, the domestic market entered a peak working season, with the "golden March and silver April" period expected to see increased industrial production and infrastructure projects [3][16] - Precious metals prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. tariff policy disputes and geopolitical tensions, with the Precious Metals ETF (159876) rising by 3.18% and attracting a net subscription of 6 million units [3][16] - The outlook for gold demand is optimistic, with expectations of surpassing 5,000 tons globally by 2025, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [7][19] Military and Aerospace Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with the Military ETF (512810) rising by 1.16% and experiencing a premium at closing [9][21] - The domestic aviation sector is expected to accelerate, with the C919 aircraft averaging nearly 50 flights per day during the Spring Festival, a 52.6% increase year-on-year [11][24] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to heighten the urgency of national defense construction in China [11][24] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI trends as the main market themes [4][17] - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and resource products, with technology centered on AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products focus on precious metals and basic chemicals [4][17]

Group 1 - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is showing increased activity ahead of the traditional peak season, with transaction volumes exceeding 22,000 units for three consecutive months since November last year, and January's volume reaching a five-year high [1] - Real estate agents report a significant increase in client inquiries and property viewings during the Spring Festival, with one agent noting a doubling of new clients compared to the previous year [1] - The inventory of second-hand homes in Shanghai has been declining for nine consecutive months, with a year-on-year reduction of approximately 20%, leading to heightened urgency among buyers [1] Group 2 - The demand for second-hand homes is not limited to the city center, as real estate agencies in the outer ring are also experiencing a surge in new clients and increased purchasing intent [2] - Public data indicates that the average daily transactions of second-hand homes in Shanghai approached 600 units in the two weeks prior to the Spring Festival, suggesting a rapid recovery in transactions as the holiday period ends [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [6][32]. - Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. Overall, the inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate. The coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable, the molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus | Multi - factors | Short - factors | | --- | --- | | The inventory structure of coking coal has improved | The winter storage of steel products was poor, limiting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills | | The domestic macro - policy is positive | As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm gradually slows down | | The molten iron output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials | The financial market fluctuations intensify, and the sentiment is changeable | [10] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply**: As of the week of February 13, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 81.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28%, and the daily average output was 74.26 tons, a decrease of 1.19 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 32.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26%, and the daily average output was 24.34 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons. As of the weekly statistics on February 7, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 92.9745 tons, slightly shrinking from the previous period. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival [12]. - **Coking coal inventory**: As of the week of February 13, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 261.24 tons, a decrease of 3.41 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 309.01 tons, a decrease of 25.45 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 258.41 tons, a decrease of 14.35 tons. With the contraction of the supply end and the end of downstream replenishment, the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline [14]. - **Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises**: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1329.99 tons, an increase of 27.6 tons. The current inventory availability days of coking enterprises were 15.68 days, an increase of 0.17 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 82.8 tons, a cumulative increase of 0.06 tons. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, and the coking coal raw material had been replenished for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakened as the Spring Festival approached [17]. - **Raw material inventory of steel mills**: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 838.25 tons, an increase of 14.05 tons. The inventory availability days were 13.34 days, an increase of 0.22 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 671.91 tons, an increase of 5.53 tons compared with the previous period, and the availability days were 12.7 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished [21]. - **Coke production capacity utilization rate**: As of February 13, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.79 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons compared with the previous period; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, the same as the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 47.23 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period. Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable [23]. - **Coke consumption**: According to the statistics of Steel Union, as of the week of February 13, China's coke consumption was 103.72 tons, an increase of 0.86 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of molten iron was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption [25]. - **Coke profit**: As of February 13, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86% compared with the previous period. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure [27]. - **Double - coking futures - spot basis structure**: The double - coking futures fluctuated [29]. 3.4后市研判 - **Coking coal**: During the week before the Spring Festival, the coking coal supply contracted significantly, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. The trading volume of the futures decreased continuously during the week before the Spring Festival, and the pre - festival funds were cautious with reduced participation. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [32]. - **Coke**: Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [35].

装置检修动态:华东一套250万吨PTA装置预计2月10日开始停车,具体开车时间未定。 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 ·PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 县美 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023-01 2021-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2022-01 2025-06 2025-08 2025-02 2025-04 2025-10 2025-12 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY现金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600= 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-02024-02024-02024-02025-02025-02025-02026-01 -800 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的 ...

Group 1 - The core disturbance in January industry data is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which significantly affects production, consumption, and export data compared to the previous lunar year [1][5][12] - The production sector shows an overall weakness compared to the same lunar period last year, with notable contraction in construction-related segments, while manufacturing exhibits divergence in performance [1][12] - Consumption patterns reveal significant declines in real estate transaction areas, while overall commodity consumption remains relatively stable, with variations in service consumption [1][13] Group 2 - The impact of the Spring Festival timing extends beyond January, potentially suppressing March production and investment data during the peak season [2][20] - The construction sector's new project initiation is expected to continue its downward trend due to ongoing inventory reduction policies, which will affect the overall recovery pace post-holiday [3][20] - Despite a more proactive fiscal policy and faster issuance of special bonds, the recovery in production and investment post-holiday is anticipated to be limited compared to previous years [3][20] Group 3 - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints due to production cuts and holiday shutdowns have led to price fluctuations, while metal demand shows improvement [4][25] - The real estate sector remains under pressure with low transaction volumes and investment levels, impacting demand for construction materials [4][34] - The financial sector shows high activity in the A-share market, with insurance premium income experiencing a year-on-year decline, while new credit issuance exceeds expectations [4][34] Group 4 - The manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth in machinery and heavy truck sales, benefiting from domestic equipment renewal policies and demand from emerging markets [4][34] - Consumer spending remains stable overall, but demand for durable goods is under pressure due to high base effects and policy rollbacks [4][34] - The TMT sector is experiencing multiple catalysts from both industry and policy perspectives, while the new energy sector sees a decline in domestic sales but strong export growth [4][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated. The coke market is affected by the cost side of coking coal, with stable capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and slightly higher capacity utilization of steel mills. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed and implemented, improving the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [5][35][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Most Tangshan steel mills have basically completed winter storage replenishment, with a small increase in winter storage. The average available days of coke in Tangshan steel mills is about 11 days, 2 days more than the average in early December last year [5] - On February 3, it was reported that some mines in Indonesia suspended spot trading, which attracted high attention. On February 5, the director of the Indonesian Mineral and Coal Department stated that the approval document for the 2026 coal mining work plan had not been officially issued, and the rumored reduction information was invalid [5] - The government work reports of 13 provinces in 2026 mentioned infrastructure - related content. Henan will implement more than 1,000 provincial key projects with an annual investment of 1 trillion yuan; Shaanxi will implement 640 provincial key projects with an investment of over 350 billion yuan [5] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction. The inventory reduction of coking coal is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises continue to replenish coking coal inventory, and steel mills slightly replenish raw material inventory. The capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed [5] 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, domestic macro - policies are positive, and the iron - water output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials [9] - Bearish factors: The winter storage expectation of steel is not strong, restricting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm slows down, and the financial market fluctuates sharply with repeated sentiment [9] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply contraction**: As of the week of February 6, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46%, and the daily average output decreased by 16,200 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26%, and the daily average output decreased by 4,600 tons. As of January 31, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.07676 million tons, remaining at a high level [11] - **Inventory reduction not smooth**: As of the week of February 6, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.6465 million tons, a decrease of 25,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.3446 million tons, an increase of 228,900 tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.7276 million tons, a decrease of 136,200 tons [17] - **Independent coking enterprises replenish inventory**: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.0239 million tons, an increase of 676,000 tons. The available days of inventory were 15.51 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 827,400 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons [20] - **Steel mills slightly replenish inventory**: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.242 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons. The available days of inventory were 13.12 days, an increase of 0.09 days. The coke inventory was 6.9238 million tons, an increase of 141,900 tons, and the available days were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.22 days [24] - **Capacity utilization**: As of February 6, the capacity utilization of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 631,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The capacity utilization of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, and the daily average output of coke was 472,400 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [26] - **Coke consumption**: As of the week of February 6, China's coke consumption was 1.0286 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [28] - **Coke price increase**: As of February 6, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, the same as the previous period. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30 [30] - **Double - coking basis structure**: The double - coking futures market fluctuated [32] 3.4后市研判 - **Coking coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction, the downstream inventory rhythm slows down, and the inventory reduction is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises have been replenishing coking coal inventory for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. The raw material replenishment intensity of steel mills is less than that of independent coking enterprises. Before the festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated [35] - **Coke**: Recently, the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. On the demand side, the iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has improved. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises is not large, and the futures market fluctuates with the cost side of coking coal [38]