The cryptocurrency crowd raised the odds of a U.S. military strike on Iran in the wake of the successful operation in Venezuela.Are Investors Betting On A US War With Iran?The probability that the U.S. will strike Iran by Jan. 31 rose from 10% to 18% in the last 24 hours on Polymarket. Similarly, the odds that such a military action happens by the end of March increased to 28% from 21% the day before. The likelihood of a strike by June 30 has risen to 35%, the highest of all outcomes currently.Nearly $700,0 ...

抓捕马杜罗在美国内部早已泄密？预测平台相关押注一夜爆赚1200% 这个预测市场此前一直在开盘押注：马杜罗会在什么时候，或者是否会下台。上周五深夜，"在2026年1月31日前下台"的合约价格 一度低到0.07美元。而一个新注册的账户砸进了数万美元，最终赚走了几十万美元的利润。 数据显示，这个账户不到一周前才创建；在袭击发生前一天，它投入了超过3万美元，随后获利超过40万美元。这一异常交易很快 在社交媒体上被人点名，许多人猜测下注者掌握了内幕信息，甚至可能在五角大楼工作。投资人兼播客主Joe Pompliano也迅速在X 上指出："在预测市场，内幕交易不仅被允许，甚至某种程度上是被鼓励的。" 大家好，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被捕的背后，可能出现了内幕交易！ 1月4日，在美军对委内瑞拉发动袭击并抓捕总统马杜罗之前不久，预测市场Polymarket上有个账户进行了几笔"时间点非常可疑"的 下注操作。 据悉，Polymarket上的交易者似乎在周五深夜就提前嗅到了马杜罗被捕的风声——时间点早于美国总统特朗普在周六清晨的公开宣 布。 关于"马杜罗是否会失去权力"的合约价格，在周五晚上美东时间10点前后突然上升；而在此前数周，这 ...

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's popularity peaked in April, yielding a 5.5% annualized return for those who wagered against the return, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket declared the "no" camp as the winner on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a mere 2% probability, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for the "yes" side [1] Group 1 - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes and war outbreaks [2] - Despite serious discussions, these platforms are filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some argue distract from the true value of predictive markets [3] - The concept of applying secular odds to religious matters has historical roots, as seen in Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager," which suggests that the probability game has continued into the present [3] Group 2 - The extreme low-probability speculative behavior observed in these markets is not surprising, as people are known to buy lottery tickets despite astronomical odds, indicating that markets will always find ways to turn uncertainty into speculative opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's peak popularity in April allowed investors who wagered against the return to achieve a 5.5% annualized return before fees, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket announced the victory of the "no" camp on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a probability of only 2%, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for those betting on "yes" [1][3] Summary of Prediction Markets - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes or war outbreaks [2] - However, these platforms are also filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some critics argue distract from the value of genuine predictive markets [2] - The peculiar bet on Jesus's return has sparked discussions about its purpose, with some users speculating it may serve as a tax loss strategy, while others criticize it as a trivial market [2] Historical Context - The application of secular odds to religious matters is not without historical precedent, as Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager" from the 17th century used probability calculations as a rationale for belief in God [2] - The ongoing speculation about the Messiah's return has deep roots in Christian history, despite biblical warnings that the exact timing is unknown [2]

Group 1 - The end of Jerome Powell's era as Federal Reserve Chairman is anticipated by 2026, with speculation about his political legacy and the economic environment he will leave behind [3] - The upcoming SpaceX IPO is expected to be a significant event, potentially marking the largest IPO in history, providing Elon Musk with additional funding for his ambitions [6] - The success of SpaceX could mitigate any negative impacts from potential delays in the anticipated rollout of Tesla's Robotaxi in 2026 [6] Group 2 - Despite discussions about an AI bubble, major tech companies continue to thrive due to their profitable businesses in advertising, e-commerce, software, and cloud services, which provide a buffer for their investments in unprofitable AI models [2] - The growth of prediction markets, exemplified by Coinbase's partnership with Kalshi, reflects a novel way to gauge public sentiment, although it has sparked concerns about gambling and the influence of new financial tools [4] - The expansion of the "Musk trade" is expected to continue, with the SpaceX IPO providing shareholders another avenue to support Musk, even as it may dilute excitement around Tesla [5][6]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，据 @defioasis 数据统计，在某预测市场超过 170 万个地址中，获得已实现盈利的地址占比为约 30%，即约 70% 的交易地址已实现亏损；在盈利 地址中的大部分的盈利区间为 0-1,000 美元；盈利超过 1,000 美元要跻身 Top 4.9%，而不到 0.04% 的头部地址获得了超过 70% 的总已实现盈利；110 万个地 址已实现亏损范围在 0-1,000 美元。 阅读原文 | Realized PnL Polymarket | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PnL Range | Address Count | Address PCT (%) | PnL | Profit Amount PCT (%) | LC | | profit > $1m | 668 | 0.0385% | $3.70b | 71.2371% | | | profit $100k-$1m | 2,551 | 0.1471% | $773.11m | 14.8672% | | | profit $10k-$100k | 17, ...

在美国劳动节周末，社交媒体上热议美国总统唐纳德·特朗普多日未公开露面。很快，关于他健康状况的谣言四起，甚至出现了骇人听闻的话题标 签，声称他已去世。 这不过是网络谣言工厂的又一个寻常周末，但此轮猜测有个新转折：预测市场网站出现了一波关于总统健康状况的投注。在Kalshi平台上，美国副总统詹 姆斯·戴维·万斯在年底前上任的概率一度飙升至15%。对Kalshi用户而言，如果万斯果真上任，下注15美元就可能获得100美元赔付。 当然，所谓的特朗普"失踪"事件后来被证明是虚惊一场。到了周二，互联网的注意力已转向其他话题。但在此之前，评论家们纷纷抨击Kalshi及其竞争对 手Polymarket运营着"刺杀市场"，让公众能（间接地）就公众人物的生死下注。 而且，预测市场有望发展成为一门大生意。 Kalshi和Polymarket已分别成立七年和五年，但真正的突破性发展出现在2024年美国总统竞选期间。几个月内，数百万人涌入这些平台，对选举结果投注 超过30亿美元。事实证明，其预测比最受推崇的民意调查更准确。这印证了创始人的观点：平台将大众智慧与金融自利性结合，为预测未来事件提供了前 所未有的窗口。 如今，在Kalshi ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - There is a divergence in the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2026 among leading global crypto institutions, primarily concerning the existence of Bitcoin's four-year market cycle and the uncertainty of the U.S. interest rate cuts [1][11] - The transition of crypto mining companies to AI data centers is seen as a positive trend, with companies expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power [3][38] - The U.S. is expected to see significant developments in asset tokenization and prediction markets, which may drive the next wave of crypto market growth [4][46] Summary by Sections 1. Observing the Fed's Rate Cut Rhythm - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 8.6% in 2025, with Bitcoin's price declining by 6.1%, marking the first year to break a three-year growth streak [2][12] - The price of Bitcoin is correlated with global M2 growth rates, which are currently weaker than in previous cycles, suggesting that the performance of the industry in 2026 will depend on the pace and scale of monetary easing by major economies [2][16] 2. U.S. Crypto Mining Transitioning to AI Data Centers - The cost of Bitcoin mining has risen significantly, with the average cost including depreciation reaching $111,557 per BTC, exceeding the current Bitcoin price [3][39] - The U.S. energy department anticipates a need for an additional 100GW of peak power supply by 2030, with a significant portion allocated for data centers, making the transition of mining companies to AI services a natural choice [3][38] 3. U.S. Rapidly Advancing Asset and Prediction Market Tokenization - The Nasdaq has applied to the SEC to launch tokenized stocks, with expectations for tokenized stocks to trade alongside traditional stocks by the third quarter of 2026 [4][46] - The monthly betting amounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2025, indicating explosive growth in demand for event contracts [4][48] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with substantial self-owned power capacity, low debt ratios, and low market value per watt of power, as well as those collaborating with major firms like Google and Amazon [5][43] - It also recommends prioritizing investments in leading cryptocurrency companies during this cyclical opportunity [5]

早在今年4月《福布斯》发布年度世界亿万富翁榜单时，30岁以下的企业家只有两位：28岁的亚历山大· 王（Alexandr Wang）和29岁的埃德·克雷文（Ed Craven）。前者以约140亿美元的价格将其人工智能初 创公司Scale AI 49%的股份出售给Meta，并借此成为Meta的首席人工智能官；后者则是澳大利亚在线赌 场大亨。目前克雷文和26岁的瑞典人工智能编码初创公司Lovable的联合创始人法比安·赫丁（Fabian Hedin）一样，是来自美国以外的六位亿万富翁之一。 【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】据《福布斯》12月25日报道，在人工智能、预测市场和在线赌博的 推动下，今年30岁以下白手起家的亿万富翁数量达到13人的历史峰值。 据《福布斯》统计，上一次有如此多的年轻亿万富翁出现是在2022年，当时只有7位30岁以下的白手起 家的亿万富翁。 年轻的亿万富翁们福布斯 《福布斯》认为，尽管人们对人工智能扼杀入门级工作机会感到绝望，但它正在以令人震惊的速度创造 另一种东西，即亿万富翁。人工智能与预测市场和在线赌博，现在正以惊人的速度为企业家创造10亿美 元级的财富。 尽管出现了这种相对的繁荣，但 ...

在人工智能、预测市场和网络博彩行业的助推下，全球三十岁以下白手起家亿万富豪的数量创下历史新高，达到13人，远超此前7人的纪录。 从左至右：Alexandr Wang、布兰登·富迪、卢安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉。图片来源：Ethan Pines for Forbes; Cody Pickens for Forbes; Alexander Karnyukhin for Forbes 原文标题：《为何突然间涌现出这么多未满三十岁的白手起家亿万富豪？》 10月7日，纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所向预测市场平台Polymarket注资20亿美元，推动该平台估值飙升至90亿美元，27岁的创始人夏恩·科普兰由此 成为全球最年轻的白手起家亿万富豪。然而，他的这一头衔仅保持了20天，就被人工智能初创企业Mercor的三位联合创始人夺去。三个年轻人均为22岁， 是史上最年轻的白手起家亿万富豪，比17年前23岁就跻身亿万富豪行列的马克·扎克伯格还要早一年。 "这一切简直太疯狂了，"Mercor的富迪10月接受《福布斯》采访时表示，"感觉很不真实。两年前，我们无论如何也想不到会有今天的成绩。" 随后在11月至12月的短短一段时间里，又有七位 ...