除预测市场外，Robinhood核心业务仍聚焦股票、期权及加密货币交易领域，形成传统金融与新兴预测 市场的双轮驱动格局。 该公司通过与受美国商品期货交易委员会监管的Kalshi合作，提供预测市场合约交易服务，并于2025年 8月将业务拓展至职业橄榄球及大学橄榄球赛事领域。 周一的上涨使Robinhood股价创下历史新高，年内累计涨幅已超260%，本月公司更被正式纳入标普500 指数。 智通财经APP获悉， 在线股票经纪公司Robinhood(HOOD.US)首席执行官Vladimir Tenev在X平台发布消 息称，Robinhood已强势切入预测市场领域，用户可在此类市场中对选举、体育赛事等高关注度事件进 行投注，此举推动该公司周一股价单日涨超12%。据Tenev透露，Robinhood客户已累计交易超40亿份预 测市场合约，仅第三季度就达成20亿份交易量，占累计量的一半。 预测市场在2024年美国总统大选期间曾引发广泛关注，当时Kalshi、Polymarket等平台促成数百万美元 规模的预测投注。Robinhood将此视为增长新引擎，而预测市场的扩张正逐步模糊金融市场与博彩行业 的边界。 ...

Group 1 - Charles Schwab, a billionaire and founder of Charles Schwab Corporation, has invested significantly in the prediction market startup Kalshi, which has seen its valuation rise to $2 billion as of June 2023 [1] - Kalshi's user base expanded tenfold after receiving regulatory approval to offer presidential election contracts, with over 2 million users betting more than $1 billion by election night [5][6] - The prediction market industry is attracting investments from numerous billionaires, including Thomas Peterffy and Jeff Yass, who see potential in using probability thinking for future events [2][6] Group 2 - Kalshi's revenue model is based on traditional commission fees for each contract traded, with a monthly trading volume of approximately $1 billion [8][9] - The company has established partnerships with major platforms like Robinhood, enhancing its liquidity and market presence [9][10] - The potential market size for prediction markets is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions, with significant growth opportunities anticipated [10] Group 3 - Kalshi's main competitor, Polymarket, has also attracted high-profile investments and is preparing for new funding rounds, with its valuation expected to reach $9 billion [3][12] - The prediction market sector is becoming a cultural focal point, with various betting opportunities emerging around significant events [5] - Regulatory challenges remain, as Kalshi faces lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports betting contracts, which are a major part of its business [12]

Core Insights - Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows users to bet on various global events, transforming uncertainty into tradable financial instruments [5][9][12] - The platform has gained significant traction, with a notable bet on the 2024 U.S. presidential election generating $3.68 billion in wagers, highlighting its appeal and the potential for substantial profits [3][4] - Polymarket's unique structure eliminates the traditional "house" advantage found in casinos, allowing for a more equitable betting environment [12][16] Group 1: Polymarket's Functionality - Polymarket operates like a stock market for events, where users can place bets on outcomes such as interest rate changes or election results, with prices reflecting the market's perceived probabilities [9][10][11] - The platform allows users to trade their positions at any time before the event concludes, enabling dynamic risk management and profit-taking [17][20] - Polymarket incentivizes liquidity by rewarding users who provide buy and sell orders near current market prices, enhancing market activity [21][23] Group 2: Historical Context and Evolution - The concept of prediction markets dates back centuries, with early examples seen in political elections and public events, evolving into modern platforms like Polymarket [46][48][51] - Polymarket's rise is attributed to the increasing demand for effective information markets in a world filled with uncertainty, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic [70][72] - The platform's founders learned from previous failures in the space, such as Augur, to create a user-friendly experience that prioritizes accessibility and stability [68][74] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Challenges - Polymarket faces legal scrutiny in the U.S., particularly regarding betting on elections, which has led to fines and operational restrictions [81][82] - Despite these challenges, the platform is exploring ways to re-enter the U.S. market, including acquiring a licensed derivatives exchange [83][84] - The platform's growth has attracted significant investment, with a valuation exceeding $1 billion, indicating strong market confidence [80] Group 4: Impact on Traditional Polling and Information Finance - Polymarket's data is increasingly recognized as a valuable alternative to traditional polling methods, with major financial institutions integrating its insights [87][88] - The platform is seen as a potential "fifth power" in the information landscape, challenging traditional media narratives and providing real-time sentiment analysis [106][112] - Critics raise ethical concerns about the implications of financializing human suffering and the potential for manipulation within the betting markets [127][128]

Market Trends & Innovation - Polymarket, a prediction platform, is rapidly gaining traction by transforming various real-world events into tradable "probability contracts," attracting billions of dollars in investment [1] - Polymarket is considered an experiment in information finance and a potential "fifth power," challenging traditional betting and polling mechanisms through blockchain technology [1] - The platform operates with a "no bookmaker, dynamic trading, liquidity rewards" model, representing a decentralized combination of betting and stock market principles [1] Risks & Challenges - Polymarket faces controversies related to its UMA adjudication mechanism and the blurring of ethical boundaries [1] - Concerns exist regarding potential market manipulation and the "reflexivity" effect, questioning whether the platform predicts or manipulates future events [1] - The financialization of events like wars, disasters, and elections raises ethical dilemmas and highlights potential systemic flaws [1] Key Figures & Events - A "Trump whale" reportedly earned $85 million through Polymarket, raising questions about the accuracy of predictions versus potential election manipulation [1] - Polymarket has transitioned from being excluded from the US market to becoming a significant information source for mainstream finance and media [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that predicting market movements is largely ineffective, as evidenced by the experiences of many investors who struggle to achieve long-term returns despite their predictions [5][6][8]. Group 1: Market Prediction Challenges - Most investors engage in predicting market trends, yet few achieve satisfactory long-term performance, indicating a disconnect between prediction and actual investment success [5][12]. - Notable investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger advise against market predictions, suggesting that such efforts are futile [6][8]. - The complexity of market systems makes accurate predictions exceedingly difficult, as it requires understanding numerous economic, financial, and emotional variables [10]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - A significant majority of investors aim for short-term profits, which complicates the ability to earn quick returns, as many are competing for the same opportunities [12]. - When many investors focus on short-term gains, it becomes challenging to capitalize on market fluctuations, as these opportunities are quickly seized [12]. - The article suggests that refraining from market predictions and focusing on value investing can lead to more sustainable investment success [13].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that predicting market movements is largely ineffective, as evidenced by the experiences of many investors who struggle to achieve long-term success despite their predictions [2][3][5] - Notable investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have stated that market predictions are futile, suggesting that investors should focus on value investing instead [3][5][6] - The complexity of the market makes accurate predictions extremely challenging, as it involves numerous variables and the unpredictable behavior of investors [7][8] Group 2 - The overwhelming desire among investors to make quick profits complicates the ability to predict market movements, as this collective behavior diminishes the chances of success [8][9] - The article argues that refraining from market predictions is a crucial step towards successful value investing, allowing investors to focus on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains [9]

Historical Context - Prediction markets have a long history, dating back over a thousand years in various fields including politics and military outcomes [1] - The first formal prediction market legislation was introduced in 1591 by Pope Gregory XIV, prohibiting betting on the outcomes of papal conclaves [1] - In the 18th century, London coffeehouses became venues for betting on political events, with odds published in newspapers [1] Early American Prediction Markets - The first recorded American "whale" was Charles James Fox, who heavily invested in political event predictions, leading to his bankruptcy [2] - Early American betting on elections can be traced back to the 19th century, with notable figures like James Buchanan and John Van Buren participating in wagers [2] Development of Formal Prediction Markets - The first significant prediction market in the U.S. was centered around billiard halls in New York City, where betting on election outcomes became common [3] - Betting odds were often used as indicators of public sentiment before the advent of modern polling methods [3] Modern Prediction Markets - The 1960s saw the emergence of betting on elections in London, with companies like Ladbrokes leading the way [5] - Betfair became the largest peer-to-peer betting market, allowing bets on various political events [5] Regulatory Landscape - The Iowa Electronic Market was launched in 1988 as an academic experiment, operating under a non-enforcement letter from the CFTC [6] - Intrade, launched in the early 2000s, became a popular platform for political betting but faced regulatory challenges leading to its eventual closure [7][8] Recent Developments - PredictIt emerged as a successor to Intrade, gaining popularity during the 2016 and 2020 elections but faced regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC [9][10] - Kalshi and Polymarket are the current leaders in the prediction market space, with Kalshi focusing on event-based trading and Polymarket utilizing cryptocurrency [12][13] Future Outlook - The prediction market industry is expected to grow, driven by increased public interest and participation, particularly during election cycles [12][14] - Regulatory challenges remain a significant hurdle, with ongoing legal battles affecting the operations of companies like Kalshi and Polymarket [14][15] - The future of prediction markets may hinge on how these companies navigate competition and regulatory landscapes, with potential for both growth and consolidation [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulations under President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act will significantly impact the professional sports betting industry in the U.S., particularly affecting how professional gamblers can deduct their losses, which may lead them to seek alternative betting avenues like Robinhood's event contracts [1][2][6]. Group 1: Impact of New Tax Regulations - The OBBB Act allows professional gamblers to deduct only 90% of their betting losses, compared to the previous 100% deduction, which will increase their taxable income and tax obligations [1][6]. - This change is expected to drive professional gamblers to explore new jurisdictions or alternative betting methods, such as event contracts [7][12]. Group 2: Robinhood's Position and Offerings - Robinhood Markets has begun offering prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users to bet on various outcomes without the same tax burdens as traditional sports betting [8][9]. - Event contracts are regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing full deduction of losses against gains, which is advantageous for professional bettors [10][11]. - In the first six months of offering event contracts, Robinhood reported over one billion contracts traded, contributing to a 50% year-over-year revenue growth [14]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Analyst Outlook - Robinhood's revenue reached $927 million, marking the second-highest in its history, prompting analysts to raise their price targets for the stock [15]. - Current analyst ratings suggest a Moderate Buy for Robinhood, with price targets ranging from $110 to $125 [11][15].

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing a divergence in signals regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with prediction markets indicating a higher likelihood of his removal compared to the rates market, which remains more stable and focused on economic fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Signals - Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, have seen increased betting odds on Powell being dismissed by 2025 following Trump's public demand for his resignation [1][3]. - In contrast, the rates market, particularly the federal funds futures market, has reduced its expectations for interest rate cuts, now predicting a decrease of 43 basis points by year-end, down from 67 basis points at the end of June [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Data Influence - Stronger-than-expected employment data has led the rates market to reassess the likelihood of significant rate cuts, indicating that economic resilience and inflation risks are influencing market sentiment [4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's more moderate stance on the Federal Reserve has provided a stabilizing effect on the rates market, contrasting with Trump's more aggressive rhetoric [1][4]. Group 3: Divergence Analysis - The divergence between prediction markets and rates markets began in early July, with the rates market focusing more on economic signals rather than political noise [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while prediction markets may react to political statements, the rates market prioritizes economic fundamentals and policy signals, indicating a more cautious approach among traders [3][4].

Core Insights - DraftKings is in negotiations to acquire Railbird, a regulated prediction market platform based in New York [1] - Railbird was founded in 2021 by former Point72 analyst Myers Safran and Edward Tian, and received approval from the CFTC in June 2025 to operate as a designated contract market [1] - Railbird's platform allows users to trade event contracts, enabling betting on real-world event outcomes across various sectors, including economic indicators, public policy decisions, weather patterns, entertainment trends, and sports results [1] Company Developments - DraftKings has previously applied for federal approval to operate a prediction market but withdrew the application months later [1] - In the sports betting sector, Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel has reportedly engaged in discussions with Kalshi, a well-known regulated exchange focused on trading future event outcomes [1] Investment Landscape - Railbird's investors include the CEO of SeatGeek and several venture capital firms, indicating strong backing and interest in the prediction market space [1] - The platform aims to cover all 50 states in the U.S., highlighting its ambition to expand its reach and user base [1]