智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12月16日，Robinhood (HOOD.US) 正式举办名为"YES/NO"的主题活动。 此次活动不仅是其预测市场业务的深度升级，更被市场视为对传统博彩巨头(如DraftKings和FanDuel)以 及现有预测平台Kalshi的"公开宣战"。美银等机构警告称，这场"技术派"科技巨头对"传统派"博彩公司 的降维打击，可能迫使整个行业的获客成本与费率标准发生根本性逆转。 "据我们交流，在线体育博彩投资者似乎把Kalshi的任何负面都视为在线体育博彩运营商的利好，但我 们认为像Robinhood这样的大型科技公司加码投资，对DraftKings(DKNG.US)和FanDuel而言是竞争威 胁。"该行分析师Julie Hoover警告称。 美国银行认为，由于Robinhood近日宣布与Susquehanna Investment Group成立垂直整合的预测市场合资 企业，该公司可能会借机凸显对Kalshi依赖度的下降。 另一大关注点是，Robinhood、Kalshi与Polymarket在事件合约手续费上的竞争力度——它们要与 FanDuel、DraftKings和BetMG ...

Group 1 - Coinbase is preparing to launch a prediction market business, allowing cryptocurrency customers to bet on events such as elections and sports, supported by technology from Kalshi [1] - The announcement of the prediction market and other products is expected during the "Coinbase System Update" event on December 17 [1] - This move is part of Coinbase's strategy to become an "all-in-one exchange," with CEO Brian Armstrong exploring opportunities in the prediction market sector [2] Group 2 - The prediction market sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Polymarket and Crypto.com also entering the space [1][3] - Coinbase's collaboration with Kalshi may not be exclusive, as the company has investments in both Polymarket and Kalshi, potentially creating new revenue streams [3] - Kalshi has recently expanded its business by hiring Max Crowley as VP of Business Development and Saurabh Tejwani as CFO, with plans for an IPO in the future [4] Group 3 - Kalshi raised over $300 million in funding, achieving a valuation of $5 billion, a significant increase from $2 billion in June [4] - Polymarket also secured up to $2 billion in funding from the Intercontinental Exchange, reaching a valuation of $8 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood's third-quarter profits exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by a significant increase in cryptocurrency revenue, although it fell short of analyst forecasts. The company announced the resignation of CFO Jason Warnick and appointed Shiv Verma as the new CFO [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue: The net revenue for Q3 was $1.27 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.21 billion [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA: The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $742 million, exceeding the expected $726.9 million [5]. - Earnings Per Share: The EPS was $0.61, higher than the expected $0.53 and significantly up from $0.17 in the same period last year [6]. - Net Profit: Net profit rose to $556 million, a substantial increase from $150 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - ARPU: The Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Q3 was $191, above the expected $182 [8]. - Monthly Active Users: The monthly active user count reached 13.8 million, exceeding the forecast of 13.31 million [8]. - Revenue by Segment: Transaction-based revenue for Q3 was $730 million, slightly above the expected $725.8 million [8]. Cryptocurrency and Options Revenue - Cryptocurrency Revenue: Q3 revenue from cryptocurrencies was $268 million, a remarkable 300% increase, but below the analyst expectation of $287.2 million [9]. - Options Revenue: Revenue from options trading was $304 million, surpassing the expected $301.3 million [9]. Event Contracts and Market Expansion - Event Contracts Trading: The trading volume of event contracts surged to 2.3 billion in Q3, more than doubling from the previous quarter. In October alone, the trading volume exceeded 2.5 billion [10]. - Expansion of Event Contracts: Robinhood has expanded the range of event contracts from sports and finance to include politics, entertainment, and technology [11]. Management Insights - CEO Vlad Tenev highlighted the rapid launch of new products contributing to record business performance in Q3, with a focus on the growth of prediction markets and the gradual rollout of banking services [13]. - CFO Jason Warnick noted the strong and profitable growth in Q3, emphasizing the diversification of revenue streams with new business lines [13]. Strategic Positioning - Robinhood is diversifying its revenue sources to reduce reliance on trading activities, recently partnering with Sage Home Loans to offer mortgage services and planning to launch a closed-end fund for retail investors [14]. - The company is positioning itself as a comprehensive wealth management platform, narrowing the gap with competitors like Coinbase [14]. - The majority of Robinhood's trading-related revenue now comes from non-stock categories, including options, futures, and cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift in its business model [14].