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高盛:国电池正极材料_提高磷酸铁锂需求,重申周期性复苏观点
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-22 05:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Hunan Yuneng with a target price (TP) of Rmb62.0, up from Rmb60.0, indicating a positive outlook for the company as a key beneficiary of the LFP cathode upcycle [3][54]. Core Insights - The report highlights a cyclical recovery in China's LFP cathode sector driven by strong demand from Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and New Energy Vehicles (NEV), with LFP cathode demand expected to grow by approximately 24% in 2025E-2026E, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% from 2024 to 2026 [1][17]. - The cost advantages of LFP batteries over NCM batteries are projected to expand to around 30% in 2025E, significantly influencing demand growth [1][32]. - Insufficient capital expenditure (CAPEX) is expected to limit supply additions, with capacity growth forecasted to decelerate to approximately 20% CAGR from 2024 to 2026E, lagging behind the demand growth [1][36]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Strong demand is anticipated from both BESS and NEV, with LFP cathode demand projected to grow at a CAGR of 31% from 2024 to 2026E, driven by 30% CAGR from NEV and 34% CAGR from BESS [1][20][21]. - BESS demand is expected to grow significantly, with a revised CAGR of 35% for 2024-2026E, indicating a robust outlook for energy storage solutions [14][29]. - LFP penetration in NEV is expected to reach 90% in China by 2030E, reflecting a growing trend among major automotive manufacturers to adopt LFP technology [15][29]. Supply Dynamics - A significant decline in LFP cathode CAPEX, down 70% from 2Q23 to 1Q25, is expected to constrain capacity additions, with a forecasted CAGR of only 21% from 2024 to 2026E [36][39]. - The report estimates that a price increase of Rmb3k/t is necessary to bring tier 2 LFP manufacturers back to EBIT break-even levels, which is crucial for reactivating capacity expansion [2][42]. Financial Projections - Hunan Yuneng's unit gross profit is expected to increase from Rmb2.4k/t in 2024 to Rmb5.4k/t in 2026E, reflecting the anticipated recovery in pricing and demand [3][54]. - The report projects a volume CAGR of 24% for Yuneng from 2024 to 2030E, indicating a strong market position with an expected market share of approximately 30% [3][54].