Core Viewpoint - The current sentiment in the energy sector is mixed, with some analysts viewing the situation as a potential value trade while others express concerns about a value trap, particularly in relation to crude oil prices and their impact on energy stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Crude Oil Market Outlook - Analysts predict that crude oil prices could decline to around $40 per barrel, with some suggesting it may even drop lower, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics [4][11]. - OPEC's decision to reverse production cuts and increase supply, along with non-OPEC countries like Brazil and the US producing at record levels, is contributing to a potential glut in the market [5][10]. - The overall sentiment is that the energy sector may face challenges, with expectations of lower commodity prices impacting the profitability of energy companies [5][8]. Group 2: Energy Stocks and Investment Strategy - Despite the challenges, there is still perceived value in major energy companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, particularly due to their operational efficiencies and lower break-even costs [3][5]. - The energy sector constitutes only 2.7% of the S&P 500, indicating limited influence on the broader market, yet the dividend yields from these stocks may become more attractive in a lower interest rate environment [6][11]. - The outlook for energy stocks remains cautious, with analysts suggesting that owning these stocks outright may be difficult in a declining oil price scenario [8][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The declining oil prices may have positive implications for other sectors, such as airlines and industrials, potentially benefiting from lower energy costs [9][10]. - A disinflationary trend could lead to a more accommodative Federal Reserve, which may further influence investment strategies across various sectors [9][10].

Welcome back. Our next guest issued a dissenting vote at last week's big Fed meeting, pushing for even steeper rate cuts. Joining us here at Post 9 in a CNBC exclusive is Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myron.Governor, it's great to have you back at Post 9. Welcome. >> Good day.Thanks for having me back. >> So, I know you just gave this big speech at Columbia about inflation. And before we dive into that, maybe you could just explain why you dissented for even sharper rate cuts when some of your colleagues ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@Claudia_Sahm @AllisonSchrager “There’s a disinflationary aspect to AI. You could make that case, but for the Fed to actually act on it, they’ll need to see some evidence,” @Claudia_Sahm says.“I don’t know that’s a 2026 phenomenon.”https://t.co/UP7Z2ybT22 ...

Joining me now to talk about this is Independent Institute senior fellow and former Federal Reserve Board nominee Judy Shelton. Uh Judy, let me just jump to it. Let's talk first about whom you are favoring among the five candidates on the short list and then we'll get to who you do not think should get the job.>> Well, I think Kevin Hasset would be an excellent choice. Uh we just heard in that answer that um he's not willing to say exactly what he will do over the next six months. Yeah.>> But I think the th ...

The combination is one of the strongest easing signals in recent years, coming at a time when the Nifty is trading near record highs but struggling for conviction.The RBI governor, on his part, said the Indian economy has witnessed rapid disinflation, with inflation coming down to an unprecedentedly low level and acceleration in real GDP growth presents a rare goldilocks period.The repo rate cut provides a further counter-cyclical push to consumption and growth, according to Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economi ...

Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October, indicating the impact of inflation on consumer spending power [2] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, with a projected rise of 13.5 basis points for the week, marking the steepest increase since March [2] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.1% but was still set for a weekly gain of 0.5% [1] - A quarter-point rate hike from the Bank of Japan is now priced at 75%, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda about considering the implications of raising interest rates [4] Currency and Capital Flows - The Japanese yen remained stable at 155 per dollar, above its 10-month low of 157.9, reflecting shifting capital flows and changing market expectations [3] - Analysts noted that long-standing expectations regarding a permanently cheap yen are being challenged, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] Global Market Overview - In other markets, Australia's resource-heavy shares remained mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased by 0.5% and South Korea's shares increased by 0.7% [5] - The US dollar steadied after a nine-session decline, trading down 0.1% to 99 against major peers, and down 0.5% for the week [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9% [6] - The US non-farm payrolls report was not released, but jobless claims showed a significant drop, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing a slowdown but is not in a recession, with growth projected around high 1% and not quite reaching 2% through 2026 [1][2] - Historical long-term trend growth for the US is approximately 2% real GDP, indicating current growth is slightly below this trend [2] Federal Reserve Actions - Anticipation of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts expected through 2026 [3][5] - The Fed is moving towards a neutral rate around 3%, allowing room for cuts [5] Fiscal Policy Impact - Fiscal policies are providing tailwinds for the economy, including benefits from a significant bill that stimulates both companies and individuals [3][4] - Tax benefits for individuals are projected to average between $2,000 to $2,500 per person in 2026 [4] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate, with challenges in reaching the Fed's 2% target [6][8] - Rents and housing costs are anticipated to contribute positively to the inflation narrative as they decline [7][8] Market Sentiment - The current dovish stance of the Fed is expected to remain, with a focus on balancing inflation concerns and employment [10][11] - The uncertainty regarding the leadership of the Fed may impact market sentiment and risk in 2026 [9]

RT Anza (@anza_xyz)1/ SIMD-0411, authored by @__lostin__ & @0xIchigo, proposes updating the inflation schedule by increasing the disinflation rate from -15% to -30%. This effectively doubles the pace of inflation decline to reach terminal rates sooner. Here’s what changes 🧵 https://t.co/KbgK2Wg9Vv ...

RT Anza (@anza_xyz)1/ SIMD-0411, authored by @__lostin__ & @0xIchigo, proposes updating the inflation schedule by increasing the disinflation rate from -15% to -30%. This effectively doubles the pace of inflation decline to reach terminal rates sooner. Here’s what changes 🧵 https://t.co/KbgK2Wg9Vv ...

Core Insights - Brazil's central bank president, Gabriel Galipolo, indicated that China is exporting "disinflation or even deflation" to Brazil through a surge in low-cost imports, which is easing inflation in the short term [1][3] - The increase in Brazilian imports from China, coupled with falling prices, is seen as a response to deeper imbalances in global trade [1][3] Economic Impact - Galipolo noted that the influx of cheaper Chinese goods is offsetting potential negative impacts on Brazil's current account deficit and inflation [2] - Disinflation and deflation are viewed as signs of weakening demand, which can discourage investment and spending, potentially harming economic growth [3] Trade Dynamics - China's industrial oversupply, resulting from a shift in investment from property construction to manufacturing, has led to factories producing more than domestic demand [3][4] - The trend of lower-priced imports from China helps restrain inflation in Brazil, allowing the central bank to maintain stable interest rates, but it also poses challenges for local manufacturers who struggle to compete on price [4] Policy Response - In response to the influx of low-cost imports, Brazil introduced the "blouse tax" in 2024, which imposes a 20% tax on international purchases under US$50, along with a state value-added tax of about 17% [5] - The government aims to level the playing field for domestic retailers and increase revenue, although critics argue it may make online goods unaffordable for low-income consumers [5][6] E-commerce Adaptation - Major e-commerce firms, such as Shopee, have had to adapt to the new tax regime by building distribution centers in Brazil and sourcing most of their sales from local sellers [6]