Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts are not guaranteed, with Chair Powell emphasizing that December is "far from a foregone conclusion" [2][3] - The market's previous assumption of a 90% certainty for a rate cut in December should be reconsidered, with a suggested probability of 50/50 [3] Treasury Yields - The 2-year Treasury yield has only decreased by 5 basis points since the Fed began cutting rates, despite a total cut of 150 basis points [4][5] - The 10-year Treasury rate has increased since the first rate cuts, indicating a steepening yield curve [4][6] Financial Asset Performance - Financial assets have experienced significant rallies this year, with the U.S. stock market, European markets, and emerging markets all performing well [6] - The investment-grade bond index is having its 11th best year in the last 49 years, following a poor performance in 2022 [7] Federal Reserve Strategy - The Fed plans to reinvest maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, aiming to reduce the duration of its balance sheet [8] - This strategy may help lower interest expenses on the national debt, which exceeds $38 trillion [8] Housing Market Concerns - Despite a decrease in inflation levels, housing affordability remains a significant issue, with home prices and mortgage rates higher than five years ago [9] - There is speculation that the Fed may consider purchasing mortgage-backed securities to lower yields compared to Treasuries in the intermediate term [10]

In the near-term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate with downside risks to employment having increased in recent months. The balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another ste ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to positively impact investor portfolios and market outlooks, emphasizing the importance of active investing strategies to navigate the resulting economic shifts [1]. Group 1: Impact on Equities - The Fed's rate cut is likely to benefit small-cap tech and biotech firms that rely on borrowing for future growth, as lower borrowing costs can enhance their equity performance [1]. - Active investing strategies are positioned to identify and capitalize on these opportunities more effectively than passive funds, which may lack the adaptability and fundamental research focus [1]. Group 2: Impact on Fixed Income - In the fixed income sector, active investing is highlighted as having a significant advantage over passive strategies, particularly in maintaining bond allocations amid changing market conditions [2]. - Active managers can utilize fundamental research to pinpoint standout bonds as the yield curve shifts, allowing for better performance in a rate-cut environment [2]. Group 3: Active ETFs - Active ETFs, such as the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF (TCAF) and the T. Rowe Price QM U.S. Bond ETF (TAGG), provide tax-efficient and transparent investment vehicles for those seeking active management solutions [3]. - The recent Fed rate cut presents opportunities for active investing, reinforcing the value of these investment tools [3].

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Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve Board open meeting in Washington, DC, on Oct. 24. Treasuries edged lower ahead of a widely expected interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve with traders focused on comments by Chair Jerome Powell for clues on the central bank’s next move. Yields on 10-year notes rose two basis points to 3.99% after falling the previous two sessions, while monetary policy-sensitive two-year notes held steady around 3.49% Wednesday morning. Most Read from Bloomberg Traders have fully ...

No one will be surprised if (when?) the Federal Reserve announces an interest-rate cut today. Traders put the odds of a 0.25% reduction at 99.9%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. It’s the most straightforward call the central bank will make all year. The next one won’t be so easy, so all eyes will be on any hint to the Fed’s plans for December, when the monetary policy committee holds its next meeting. SUBSCRIBE:  Receive more of our free The Daily Upside newsletter. READ ALSO: Wall Street GOAT: Nv ...

Core Viewpoint - Treasury yields remained stable during Asian trading hours as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1 - Treasury yields showed little change, indicating a period of stability in the bond market [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's rate decision, which could impact future yield movements [1]

The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) closed at a new all-time high at 6858 on Monday. The triggers were 1) the soft CPI data on Friday pointing to another Fed cut andAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this a ...

Let's stick with earning shares of. It's now taking a hit as retailers delay orders over tariff uncertainty impacts and the current. Joins us now for more.And there we're starting to see it might not be a big stock market issue but a company turning around is saying some retailers are holding back, waiting for clarity. How much of an economic issue might that be. Well, it's a big question, a big missing piece of the jigsaw.When will these tariffs start to flow through to more broadly goods on the shelf. Jon ...

false Trading Ideas Stock Market Crypto Forex Economic Commodity Video World Dow futures climb above 120 points ahead of key earnings: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens Written by Devesh KumarDevesh K. Devesh Kumar Sub-Editor Devesh Kumar Sub-Editor Devesh is a sub-editor at Invezz, where he writes and edits news reports. He is dedicated to clear communication, collaborative teamwork, and delivering practical financial insights. read more. Written onOct 20, 2025 Reading time 4 minutes Dow futures su ...