Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.11% as of November 7, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.55% and the 30-year note at 4.70% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown a consistent negative trend from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [3] - The 10-3 month spread also turned negative recently, indicating potential recession signals, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and while typically a rising FFR leads to higher mortgage rates, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.22%, marking one of the lowest levels in over a year [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policies have significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries, such as Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT), are available for investors [9]

Even if you're not confirmed as Fed chair, everybody has a view about what they would do differently at the Fed. What are some of the changes that you would make. You know, listen, I mean, all I'm going to point to is what I've said for many months now, which is I think there are some things to do that you can do that to create velocity in the system.You know, nobody borrows off the overnight funds rate anymore. Velocity happens where financing happens out, the yield curve, things you could do to keep that ...

Core Insights - CD rates are currently higher than historical averages, with some institutions offering rates of 4% APY and above, particularly online banks [2][5] - The highest CD rate as of November 6, 2025, is 4.1% APY, available from Marcus by Goldman Sachs and Sallie Mae [2] - The Federal Reserve has been cutting its target rate, which has led to a decline in CD rates since last year [2][4] Group 1: Current CD Rates - CD rates are relatively high compared to historical averages, but they have been declining since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates [2] - Several financial institutions are offering competitive rates of 4% APY and up, with the highest being 4.1% APY [2] - The Federal Reserve cut its target rate three times in late 2024 by a total of one percentage point, impacting CD rates [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its second rate cut of 2025 in October, with potential for additional cuts [4] - The federal funds rate does not directly impact deposit interest rates, but they are correlated, leading to a decline in CD rates following Fed rate cuts [5] Group 3: Opening a CD - The process for opening a CD account varies by institution, but generally includes researching rates, choosing an account, preparing documents, completing the application, and funding the account [6] - It is important to compare CD rates online and consider factors such as term length and minimum deposit requirements [6] - Many financial institutions allow online applications, streamlining the process for opening a CD [6]

Group 1 - The document provides various footnotes and sources for data as of specific dates, indicating a reliance on reputable financial data providers such as FactSet and Bloomberg [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. - It mentions the importance of understanding economic indicators like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and sovereign debt, which are critical for assessing economic health and investment opportunities [6][7]. - The MSCI EAFE Index and S&P 500 Index are highlighted as benchmarks for evaluating the performance of equities in developed markets and the US market, respectively [7][8]. Group 2 - The document emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a crucial consideration for investors [3]. - It outlines the risks associated with foreign investments, including currency fluctuations and political instability, which can impact investment returns [4]. - The document notes that investments in gold and related assets tend to be more volatile compared to broader equity or debt markets, highlighting the need for careful consideration in asset allocation [5].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to end its balance-sheet runoff after a drop in bank reserves [1] - Officials are focusing on the federal funds rate as the main tool for monetary policy [1] - The federal funds rate will also help assess liquidity in the financial system [1]

All right, let's talk about the impact of trade, the Fed, and tech earnings on the market. Joining us now, Ed Yardenni, president of Yardeni Research. Ed, good morning.Good to see you. Um, been an interesting 20 hours along all of those fronts. You know, we've got a good test of the elements of the bull case, which are, you know, obviously AI momentum, maybe some kind of trade progress, and then a dovish Fed, which uh maybe is not as dovish as we thought.What do you make of the market response to all that. ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently at their lowest in a year at 6.19%, but have remained above 6% for the past three years, causing frustration among potential homebuyers [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding its balance sheet, significantly influence mortgage rates, even though it does not set them directly [1][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new target for the benchmark Federal Funds Rate is set between 3.75% and 4.00% effective October 29 [2] - The Fed has implemented its second quarter-point interest rate cut of 2025 to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [3] - The Fed's total assets are approximately $6.59 trillion, representing about 22% of U.S. nominal GDP as of October 22 [4] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening and Easing - During Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling or allowing bonds to mature, which removes money from the system [7] - Conversely, during Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed buys bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject money into the economy, typically lowering long-term rates [7] - The Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries since 2022, which has pressured rates higher and elevated borrowing costs, including mortgages [8]

The Federal Reserve lowered the upper bound of the federal funds rate to 4.00%, down 25 basis points from 4.25% and in line with expectations. According to the FOMC, balance sheet runoff will cease on December 1. Starting then, all principal payments from maturing Treasury securities will be rolled over at auction, and all principal payments from agency debt and MBS will be reinvested into short-term Treasury bills. https://t.co/w5nQ5YkpIh ...

The Federal Reserve is making loans cheaper. The federal funds rate is currently around 4.11%. By the end of 2026, this rate is expected to fall below 3.5%.Wall Street is excited, but middle class Americans aren't likely to benefit much from this decline in interest rates. Low rate and high liquidity environments benefit the guys who have money in markets, benefit the guys who already have the wealth. The top 0.1%: they have seen their wealth nearly double since 2020 to over $23 trillion.Stocks accounted fo ...

Deposit account rates are on the decline — but the good news is you can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to ...