Economic Growth Outlook - The economy is expected to see a slight pickup in growth, with GDP growth projected to be around 4.2% for Q3 and 4% for Q2 [25] - Job growth is anticipated to average around 80,000 for 2026, an increase from the recent average of 70,000 to 60,000 [19] AI's Impact on the Economy - AI spending currently represents about 1.5% of GDP, contributing approximately 25% to the overall GDP growth [6][7] - While AI is a significant driver of growth, it is not in bubble territory, and companies are expected to continue investing in AI [10][11] Federal Reserve Policy and Leadership - The potential nomination of Kevin Hasset as the next Fed chair may lead to a more dovish approach, but consensus among committee members will still be necessary [12][14] - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts, but challenges remain in achieving a dovish policy due to elevated inflation [15][14] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of strength, with a notable increase in construction employment and a rise in labor force participation [21][28] - The recent jobs report indicated a payroll increase of 119,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [21]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is facing a critical week as three delayed US economic reports are set to be released, which could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and influence crypto markets [1] - The convergence of these economic indicators is significant due to the current lack of up-to-date consumer spending and inflation metrics [4] Economic Reports Overview - The US economic reports include September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for November 25, followed by initial jobless claims data on November 26 [3] - The previous retail sales report indicated a strong 0.6% monthly gain, while the PPI fell by 0.1% in August, with a year-over-year core PPI of 2.8% [4] Retail Sales Expectations - The consensus for September retail sales predicts a 0.3% month-over-month increase, with any miss below this mark potentially signaling economic cooling and fostering dovish sentiment among Federal Reserve policymakers [5] - Weaker consumer spending is often associated with rising speculation about rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and support crypto prices [5] PPI Data Significance - The PPI release is crucial as it is the last significant inflation data before the October Personal Consumption Expenditures report [6] - Markets currently price in a 67.3% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which may shift based on new data [7] Inflation Impact on Market Expectations - A higher-than-expected PPI, especially in core measures excluding food and energy, could reduce December cut odds below 60%, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on crypto [8] - September's consensus calls for a 0.3% monthly PPI increase, with any number significantly above this challenging the view of moderating price pressures [9]

Market Overview - The U.K. stock market's benchmark FTSE 100 is experiencing a significant decline, down 120.72 points or 1.25% at 9,554.71, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses [2] - Concerns regarding the global economic outlook, particularly related to the AI bubble, U.S. tariffs, and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, are negatively impacting investor sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Major bank stocks such as Standard Chartered, HSBC Holdings, and Barclays have seen declines ranging from 3.2% to 3.5% [2] - Other notable declines include Anglo American Plc down 3.7%, Convatec down 3.6%, and IAG down 3.1%, with Fresnillo and Antofagasta also down nearly 3% [2] Company-Specific Movements - Companies like Schroders, WPP, Prudential, Rio Tinto, Diageo, 3i Group, Mondi, Airtel Africa, Glencore, and Rolls-Royce Holdings are also experiencing sharp declines [3] - In contrast, ICG is gaining nearly 6% due to stronger than expected earnings, while Imperial Brands is up 2.7% following a nearly 5% increase in annual adjusted operating profit [3] - Other companies such as Rightmove, BAE Systems, Sainsbury (J), AstraZeneca, British American Tobacco, and Centrica are showing modest gains [3]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed signs of recovery after initial losses, influenced by a recent slump in bitcoin and upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and delayed jobs data [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, recovering from a 0.8% drop earlier, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures also improved slightly from their premarket lows [2] Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing all gains for the year, which caused significant alarm in Asian markets, leading to the worst loss for Japanese stocks since April [3][10] - The sell-off in bitcoin has raised concerns about potential negative selling pressure from leveraged investors, contributing to a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets [9][12] Economic Indicators - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is critical as investors reassess the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally, with increased scrutiny on Big Tech's debt issuance related to AI infrastructure [5] - The September jobs report, delayed due to a US government shutdown, is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, with current market pricing indicating a 46% chance of rate cuts [6] Retail Sector Insights - Retail earnings reports are anticipated to provide insights into consumer strength ahead of the holiday season, with Home Depot lowering its full-year profit guidance after missing earnings estimates [7] - PDD Holdings reported a 9% revenue increase, although its stock fell 2% due to aggressive pricing strategies, while Amer Sports saw a 6% rise in stock after raising its full-year guidance [8][13]

Core Insights - The introduction of a 50-year mortgage is not expected to significantly benefit the housing market at this time [1][4] - A stable mortgage rate around 6% is seen as more favorable for stimulating housing sales [2][3][5] Group 1: Mortgage Market Dynamics - A 50-year mortgage may come with higher rates compared to a 30-year mortgage, potentially leading to initial savings but lacking in equity build-up [3] - The current housing market can function effectively with a 30-year fixed mortgage, provided mortgage rates remain in the low sixes [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has previously impacted demand negatively when mortgage rates increased [4][7] Group 2: Housing Market Conditions - Active inventory in the housing market has increased, with price growth slowing and wage growth improving, which are positive indicators for the sector [6] - Historical trends suggest that the housing market tends to stabilize over time, supported by household formation and existing equity [6] - Builders are currently operating at sales levels comparable to 2019, within a sub-6% mortgage rate environment [6]

Meanwhile, S&P and NASDAQ coming off their worst day in about a month. Russell 2000 closed below the 50-day moving average as volatility now picks up on the street. We're joining us with said with his outlook this morning, Evercore ISI vice chairman Krishna Gua is with us.Krishna, it's great to have you. Good morning. Thanks for being with us.>> Um, we had Aean at the top of the hour talk about Scotas and you guys have been writing about how these arguments uh are expected to go. Do you have a call yet on w ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts believe Bitcoin has reached a local bottom and predict a surge in liquidity will lead to a retest of record highs in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Bitcoin's price dropped approximately 3% to just over $107,000, influenced by $800 million in asset sales from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week [1]. - Despite the recent dip, October has seen $3.4 billion in ETF inflows, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's announcement to end quantitative tightening from December 1 is expected to reverse the liquidity drain, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin [3][4]. - Analysts anticipate further easing of liquidity once the US federal government shutdown concludes, which will enhance Treasury Department spending and bank reserves [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is shifting towards cautious optimism, with Bitcoin consolidating between $105,000 and $115,000 as traders await clearer signals from central banks [5]. - As ETF flows stabilize and become more balance-sheet-driven, volatility is expected to decrease, setting the stage for a potential upward movement in Bitcoin's price [5].

Core Insights - US inflation increased to 3% in September, slightly below the expected 3.1%, indicating potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, marking the fastest annual rate since the beginning of the year [2][4] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also rose to 3%, down from 3.1% the previous month, contrary to expectations of remaining flat [4][5] Economic Context - The CPI report was delayed due to the federal government shutdown, which is now the second-longest in history [5] - There are concerns regarding the accuracy of the inflation report due to the ongoing government shutdown [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, following a quarter-point cut last month [7][9] Market Reactions - Wall Street showed a positive response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 66 points, or 0.1%, in premarket trading [6] - Analysts suggest that if unemployment data weakens significantly, a 50 basis point cut could be anticipated in December [6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - There is internal dissent among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of rate cuts, with some advocating for a half-point cut while others prefer a quarter-point cut [8] - Economists are monitoring the impact of tariffs on prices as part of the broader inflation discussion [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently engaged in discussions about the appropriate interest rate levels to maintain low inflation and high employment, indicating a potential end to the era of low interest rates that followed the 2008 financial crisis [2][3][9] Interest Rate Dynamics - Fed officials are attempting to identify a "neutral" interest rate that neither stimulates the economy excessively nor restricts it, with estimates for this rate ranging from 2.6% to 3.9% [3][4] - If the neutral rate is on the higher end, the Fed may have limited capacity to further cut interest rates, as the current benchmark rate is set between 4% and 4.25% [4] - Conversely, if the neutral rate is closer to 2.5%, there would be more room for the Fed to implement rate cuts [5] Economic Implications - The difference in the neutral rate may seem minor, but it has significant long-term effects on borrowing costs, particularly for long-term loans like 30-year mortgages, and could lead to recession and job losses if rates remain high [6] - The Fed aims to achieve a gradual transition in monetary policy, avoiding abrupt changes that could destabilize the economy [7][8] Historical Context - Prior to the COVID pandemic, there was a notable decline in the neutral rate, which suggested underlying structural weaknesses in the economy despite the benefits of low borrowing costs for consumers [10]

Economic Data and Government Impact - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling staff to ensure the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report despite a government shutdown, highlighting the critical importance of inflation data for market and policy decisions [3][8] - The Labor Department's Office of the Inspector General has initiated an inquiry into the BLS's methods for collecting and publishing key economic data, including CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) [3] Federal Reserve Leadership Update - Former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey has withdrawn his name from consideration for the position of US Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the field for this crucial leadership role [4][8] Global Currency Fluctuations - The Japanese Yen has weakened to its lowest point against the US dollar since mid-February, while the Euro has also experienced a decline, influenced by political developments and monetary policy expectations [5][8] Corporate Earnings and Industry News - Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) anticipates a 70 basis point impact to its annual gross margin from tariffs, an increase from a previous estimate of 50 basis points, although 70% of its US holiday inventory is secured [9][8] - In the automotive sector, Toyota (TM) has updated its bZ4X electric vehicle (EV) to boast the longest range among domestic EVs in Japan, indicating the company's ongoing efforts in the competitive EV market [9] Healthcare Policy Developments - Discussions are ongoing between US pharmacies and drug discounters, including GoodRx Holdings Inc. (GDRX), regarding their potential role in the TrumpRx initiative, which aims to provide consumers with access to discounted prescription medications [10] New Zealand Manufacturing Data - The New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI for September remained unchanged at 49.9, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a reading below 50.0 signifies a decline in manufacturing activity [11]