US trading partners are readying a response to President Trump's recent barrage of tariff threats, including a potential 30% levies against the EU and Mexico announced over the weekend. In a piece for the publication Foreign Affairs, Queens College Cambridge President Muhammad Alien wrote that the US has quote shaken the very foundations of the global order, adding that there is no trusted conductor to guide countries and companies through the complicated transition to whatever is coming next. Joining me no ...

Recently, Black Rockck CEO Larry Frink published an article in the Financial Times titled, quote, "It's time for the second draft of globalization. It's safe to say that it took the world by storm." In that article, Larry acknowledged that globalization has created multiple problems such as growing wealth inequality. But it goes without saying that the solutions he has in mind could make things much worse. And that's why today we're going to take a look at what exactly Black Rockck is planning, how this cou ...

Summary of Aurora Mobile's Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aurora Mobile - **Industry**: Technology / SaaS (Software as a Service) Key Financial Highlights - **Total Revenue**: RMB 89 million, representing a **38% year-over-year growth** [2][16] - **Gross Profit**: Grew by **27% year-over-year**, achieving the highest gross profit in the past nine quarters [2][16] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Positive for the **seventh consecutive quarter** [3][16] - **Engaged Labs Revenue**: Increased by **127% year-over-year** [2][16] - **Financial Risk Management Revenue**: Recorded **RMB 22.2 million**, a **64% year-over-year growth** [2][16] - **Cumulative Contract Value**: Exceeded **RMB 110 million** by March 31, 2025, with **RMB 63 million** worth of contracts signed in Q1 alone [2][16][18] Business Segment Performance - **Developer Services**: Revenue increased by **39% year-over-year** [3][17] - **Subscription Revenue**: Grew by **26% year-over-year**, reaching **RMB 53.5 million** [3][17] - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue surged by **269% year-over-year**, although it decreased by **46% quarter-over-quarter** [3][19] - **Market Intelligence Revenue**: Decreased by **26% year-over-year**, but grew by **4% quarter-over-quarter** [3][20] Customer and Market Insights - **Customer Acquisition**: Increased by **25%**, reaching a total of **848 customers** [3][18] - **Global Expansion**: Engaged Lab products are now sold in over **40 countries and regions** [3][18] - **Advertising Spending Recovery**: Increased by over **200%** in Q1, contributing to revenue growth [3][19] Operational Efficiency - **Operating Expenses**: Increased by **14% year-over-year** to **RMB 60.6 million**, with a focus on sales and marketing [3][20] - **R&D Expenses**: Increased by **8% year-over-year** to **RMB 24.6 million** [3][21] - **Net Dollar Retention Rate**: Stood at **96%**, indicating strong customer retention [3][21] Future Outlook - **Q2 2025 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to be between **RMB 87.5 million to RMB 90.5 million**, reflecting a **10% to 14% year-over-year growth** [3][23] - **Share Repurchase Program**: Cumulatively repurchased **295,000 ADS** since the start of the program [3][23] Additional Insights - **Investment in Growth**: Management emphasized the importance of continued investment in R&D and marketing to sustain growth, even at the cost of short-term profitability [3][26] - **Long-Term Contracts**: New contracts signed in Q1 were primarily from international customers, indicating a strong demand for Aurora Mobile's services globally [3][24] This summary encapsulates the key points from Aurora Mobile's Q1 2025 earnings call, highlighting the company's strong performance, growth strategies, and future outlook.

2014, Germany wins the World Cup and this six-year-old boy leaves the US after three exciting years. I remember him proudly telling his teacher and classmates that his new country were football world champions. In fact, this boy was me and my new country, Germany, was actually the country that I was born in.And this was a piece of my farewell cake. But this piece of cake was no piece of cake at all. It starts the journey of a third culture kid who at 15 has already lived on four different continents.Making ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the consumer sector in China, with a preference for new consumer names that can deliver unique growth amidst demand uncertainties, while mature names face investor concerns due to fluid overall demand [2][12]. Core Insights - The overall consumption trend in China appears unexciting for 2Q25, with sequentially softer trends observed across multiple sectors, including spirits, dairy, sportswear, cosmetics, condiments, and prepared food, despite resilient headline numbers supported by trade-in policies [1][35]. - There is a divergence in stock preferences, with investors favoring new consumer brands that show strong growth potential, while mature brands are under scrutiny due to demand fluctuations [2][12]. - Structural growth opportunities are expected to drive stock outperformance in sectors such as sports brands, diversified retailers, pet food, beverages, and restaurants, while sectors like apparel, footwear OEM, and furniture remain less favored [2][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Trends - Sales trends are softening in 2Q25, with headline growth numbers steady due to trade-in policy support, but multiple consumer subcategories indicate fluid demand [35][37]. - Categories benefiting from subsidy support, such as appliances and freshly made drinks, show solid performance, while spirits and high-end restaurants face headwinds from anti-extravagance policies [38][39]. Pricing Dynamics - Emerging pricing risks are noted across various sectors, with increased competition leading to deeper discounts, particularly in the automotive and sportswear sectors [43][44]. - The report highlights a trend of rational spending among consumers, leading to weaker average selling prices (ASP) across multiple categories [30][43]. Sector Performance - The report outlines expected revenue and net income growth for new consumer names to outperform older ones from 2025 to 2027, driven by structural growth opportunities [12][21]. - Specific sectors such as pet care and freshly made drinks are highlighted for their robust growth potential, while traditional categories like spirits and dairy face challenges [11][21]. Future Outlook - The outlook for 2H25 suggests cautious optimism, with expectations of easier comparisons and continued support from trade-in policies, although growth pressures remain due to high bases and macroeconomic conditions [35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion and product innovation as key themes for future growth, particularly for companies looking to penetrate lower-tier cities and international markets [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Hengrui Pharma's H-shares and resumes coverage of A-shares, both with an Overweight (OW) rating, with H-shares being the preferred stock [1][43]. Core Insights - Hengrui Pharma is positioned to benefit from an improving domestic policy environment and accelerated globalization, which has not yet been fully reflected in the market [1]. - The company is recognized for its extensive and balanced product portfolio, with a strong pipeline across various therapeutic areas, including oncology, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, immunology, and respiratory diseases [3][12]. - Hengrui is expected to receive approvals for 5, 5, and 11 new drugs in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, totaling 47 NDA/BLA approvals from 2025 to 2027 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global pharmaceutical market is valued at $1.47 trillion, approximately 6.6 times the size of the Chinese domestic market, with a projected CAGR of 5.7% from 2023 to 2028 [3][32]. - Hengrui has completed 14 licensing deals since 2018, with a total transaction value of $15 billion, indicating strong interest from global biopharma companies in assets from China [3][32]. Financial Projections - The target price for H-shares is HK$78, representing a 45% upside, while the target price for A-shares is RMB 71, representing a 37% upside [7][43]. - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow at CAGRs of 18% and 24%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027 [4][37]. - Innovative drug sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 34% from 2024 to 2027, contributing to 74% of total drug sales by 2027 [38][40]. Product Pipeline - Hengrui has developed a comprehensive pipeline of innovative drugs, with a focus on key disease areas and a one-stop solution for various subtypes and treatment needs [19][21]. - The company is advancing multiple GLP-1 products targeting the $100 billion global diabetes market, with competitive clinical data supporting their efficacy [19][20]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF valuation method yields a target price of HK$78 for H-shares and RMB 71 for A-shares, with a reasonable premium due to Hengrui's leading position and growth potential [4][43]. - The SOTP analysis indicates that the contribution of globalization opportunities to total value is still conservative, accounting for only 13% of the total estimated value [4][43].

Tariffs & Trade Policy - Tariffs are a symptom of underlying changes [1] - Well-executed tariffs of reasonable size can be beneficial [2] - The US aims to generate tax revenue from tariffs [2] - Tariffs are intended to boost US manufacturing for employment and security [2] Global Economic Shift - The world is moving away from efficient, globalized production and free-flowing capital [3] - The shift is towards a less efficient, more controlled global economy [3] - This transition may lead to higher inflation and slower growth, potentially stagflation [3] Manufacturing & Economic Impact - The potential for tariffs to develop US manufacturing remains a question [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant growth in sales, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, and has adjusted its annual sales target upwards due to strong performance and new product launches [1][2][3] Sales Performance - In June, the company achieved a total sales volume of 236,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to June, the company sold 1.409 million vehicles, up 47% year-on-year [1] - In June, the company sold 122,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 86%, accounting for 52% of total sales [1] - The breakdown of new energy vehicle sales includes 85,000 pure electric vehicles (up 129% year-on-year) and 37,000 plug-in hybrids (up 30% year-on-year) [1] Product Launches and Future Plans - The company has launched several successful models, including the Galaxy Starry 8, which sold over 10,000 units in its first month [2] - The company plans to introduce multiple new models in the second half of 2025, including Galaxy A7, Galaxy M9, Lynk & Co 10 EM-P, Lynk & Co Z20, Zeekr 9X, and others [2] - The annual sales target for 2024 has been raised from 2.71 million to 3 million vehicles, increasing the expected growth rate from 25% to 38% [2] Global Expansion - In June, the company exported 40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while total exports for the first half of the year reached 184,000 vehicles, down 8% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding its global presence, with plans to add over 300 overseas sales and service outlets by 2025 [3] - The company has established a presence in key markets such as the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, with 891 sales and service points across 81 countries [2][3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 351.27 billion, 413.26 billion, and 469.53 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 15.20 billion, 17.28 billion, and 20.79 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of 1.51, 1.71, and 2.06 yuan [3]

Currency Globalization - South Korea's efforts to globalize its currency are gaining traction [1] - Won trading is expanding after extending onshore market hours [1]

Financial Performance and Expectations - Acadia Pharmaceuticals expects to generate over $1 Billion in total U S revenues in 2025[12] - The company estimates a risk-adjusted peak sales potential of $25 Billion from its pipeline molecules[17] - The full potential peak sales for pipeline molecules is estimated at $12 Billion, assuming successful approval and commercialization[17] - Potential peak sales of current products are projected to be in the range of $15-$2 Billion[19] Pipeline Development and Strategy - Acadia Pharmaceuticals is focused on advancing care for underserved neurological and rare diseases[11] - The company has a late-stage pipeline with ACP-101 (P3-PWS) data expected in early Q4 2025 and ACP-204 (P2-ADP) data expected in mid-2026[12] - Acadia has 2 approved medicines and 9 disclosed and multiple undisclosed programs[30] - The company anticipates 7 Phase 2 or Phase 3 study starts in 2025 and 2026, and 5 Phase 2 or Phase 3 study readouts between 2025 and 2027[30] Key Programs and Indications - ACP-204 is being developed for Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (ADP) and Lewy Body Dementia with Psychosis (LBDP), targeting approximately 3 million patients with psychosis across PDP, LBDP, and ADP in the US[45] - ACP-211 is in development for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), a condition affecting approximately 21 million adults in the US[93, 125] - ACP-711 is being investigated for Essential Tremor (ET), which affects an estimated 7 million people or 22% of the US population[136, 171] - DAYBUE, approved for Rett syndrome, has seen >50% of patients remain on treatment at 12 months and 65% on treatment for 12+ months[271]