Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) - **Industry**: Robotics and Autonomous Driving Technology Key Points Client Base and Partnerships - Horizon Robotics is expanding its client base and partnerships, particularly with the Journey 6P and HSD (Horizon Robotics SuperDrive) solutions [1][2] - The HSD solution is being adopted by Chery's new models, including EXCEED ET5, Fulwin T9, and iCAR V27, with expectations for mass production of additional models like FAW BESTUNE in 2026 [1][2] - The pricing for Chery EXCEED ET5 with J6P is below Rmb150k, indicating a positive outlook for the J6P/HSD solution across a wider pricing range [1] Revenue Expectations - Anticipated rising revenue contributions from the HSD solution in 2026 due to mass production and new design wins, particularly for models priced below Rmb150k [2] High-End Product Development - Horizon Robotics announced a partnership with Deeproute.AI to develop high-end ADAS/AD solutions based on the J6P platform, aiming for better experiences at lower costs [3] - The company is also collaborating with KARGBOT to develop L4 freight transportation solutions, focusing on AI models for specific scenarios [3] Financial Position and Use of Proceeds - The company completed a share placement and subscription, raising net proceeds of HK$6.4 billion, primarily for overseas expansion, intelligent driving technology development, and investments in emerging sectors [3] Industry Challenges and Solutions - Management highlighted industry challenges such as high computing costs for AI model training, talent shortages, and rapid iteration cycles [4] - Horizon Robotics launched "HSD together," an algorithm service to assist OEM and transportation clients, aiming to lower overall spending and entry barriers [7] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month target price for Horizon Robotics is set at HK$15.30, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 28.0x, with a projected EBITDA growth correlation to peers [8] - Current market cap is HK$112.8 billion, with a price of HK$8.98, indicating a potential upside of 70.4% [10] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Increased competition or pricing pressure in the auto supply chain amid slow demand [9] 2. Slower-than-expected product mix upgrades towards autonomous driving [9] 3. Delays in customer base expansion [9] 4. Supply chain risks due to geopolitical tensions [9] Conclusion Horizon Robotics is positioned for growth through expanding partnerships and innovative solutions in the robotics and autonomous driving sectors. The company faces challenges but has strategies in place to mitigate risks and capitalize on market opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Li Auto, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [7]. Core Insights - Li Auto is positioned well in the NEV market with a 5% market share in China as of 2024, benefiting from improvements in urban NOA performance and a focus on AI, which supports volume growth and margin improvement [7]. - The company has the best net cash position among major Chinese OEMs, facilitating future R&D spending and capital expenditures [7]. - Li Auto's current trading multiples are below historical averages, suggesting potential for upside [7]. - Upcoming catalysts include new model launches and advancements in ADAS and AI technologies [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 3Q25, Li Auto reported total revenue of Rmb27,365 million, exceeding expectations by 6%, while gross profit missed by 13% due to a one-time recall cost of approximately Rmb1.1 billion [1][5]. - Vehicle sales revenue was 6% higher than expected, driven by a higher average selling price of Rmb278,000, which is a 5% increase compared to the forecast [2]. - The vehicle gross margin was reported at 15.5%, lower than expected due to recall costs, but would have been 19.8% excluding these costs [2][5]. - Total operating expenses were 12% higher than expected, primarily due to increased R&D and SG&A expenses [2][5]. Guidance and Projections - For 4Q25, Li Auto's revenue guidance is set between Rmb26.5 billion and Rmb29.2 billion, which is a 1% increase at the midpoint compared to expectations [1]. - Vehicle sales volume is projected to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, slightly below expectations by 1% at the midpoint [1].

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report centers on the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **EV Purchase Intentions**: - In 2025, 35% of surveyed consumers would consider a BEV for their next car, an increase from 33% in 2024. PHEV consideration slightly declined to 30% from 32% [1][6]. - Overall, about 65% of consumers would consider either a BEV or PHEV, consistent with 2024 levels [1][6]. - Loyalty among current EV owners is strong, with around 80% planning to choose EVs again [1]. - **ADAS Features Importance**: - Advanced ADAS features have become the third most important factor in car purchase decisions, rising from fifth place in 2024, with a 16 percentage point increase in importance [2][6]. - Connectivity and infotainment features also gained importance, increasing by 9 percentage points [2][6]. - **Consumer Concerns**: - Key concerns such as driving range and purchase price have decreased significantly, each dropping by 11 percentage points [2][6]. - Budget car buyers now place high value on ADAS features, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [2]. - **Intelligent Driving Features**: - High adoption rates for in-car technologies, with around 80% usage for navigation, in-car music, and smartphone connectivity [3]. - Despite high usage, half of the respondents believe intelligent car features should be free, limiting monetization opportunities for advanced ADAS and infotainment [3]. - **Xiaomi's Market Position**: - Xiaomi ranks well in the EV market, leading in technology, safety satisfaction, and ADAS features among consumers [4]. - The brand enjoys the highest loyalty and repurchase intentions, with no lasting negative impact from an ADAS-related accident earlier in the year [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Growth Forecast**: - China's auto sales in the first half of 2025 have exceeded expectations, driven by trade-in policies, government subsidies, and new product launches [6]. - The industry is forecasted to grow by 8%, reaching approximately 29.5 million units in 2025, with domestic sales at around 24 million units and exports at 5.5 million units [6]. - **Long-term EV Outlook**: - The long-term growth outlook for EVs remains strong, with a forecasted sales growth of approximately 30% for 2025, driving EV penetration to 57% [7]. - Competition in the domestic market is expected to remain intense, impacting pricing and profitability [7]. - **Valuation Comparisons**: - A valuation table shows various companies' market caps, P/E ratios, and other financial metrics, indicating Xiaomi's strong position with a market cap of $156.3 billion and a P/E ratio of 20.0x for 2025 [8]. - **Investment Implications**: - A cautious view of the sector is maintained, with expectations of sustained demand supported by policy measures, although year-over-year comparisons may become more challenging [6][7]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese EV market.

Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on cloud computing and intelligent driving technology Key Points and Arguments 1. **Share Placement and Subscription**: - Horizon Robotics completed a share placement and subscription in October 2025, issuing 639 million shares at HK$9.99 per share, raising net proceeds of HK$6.4 billion [1][2][4] 2. **Use of Proceeds**: - The net proceeds will be allocated as follows: - 60% for R&D to advance technological capabilities - 20% for investment in business partners - 10% for investment in emerging sectors - 10% for overseas business expansion [3][4] - The company plans to fully utilize these proceeds by the end of 2027/2028E [4] 3. **Overseas Expansion**: - Horizon Robotics is expanding operations in the EU market and securing design wins from Japanese OEM clients [4] 4. **R&D Focus**: - The company is investing in cloud resource expenses to iterate its model and plans to invest in emerging sectors, including Robotaxi [4] 5. **Earnings Revision**: - Revenue projections for 2027-2030 have been revised upwards by 1% to 5% due to expectations of higher penetration of the company's SoC platform [5][9] - Net income (NI) is expected to increase by 5% to 7% in the same period, while EPS revisions are minimal, reflecting share dilution from the subscription shares [9][10] 6. **Financial Metrics**: - The target price has been revised to HK$14.11 based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.0x, reflecting the company's growth potential [10][14] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimates reaching Rmb 33.98 billion by 2030 [12][16] 7. **Risks**: - Key risks include increased competition, slow product mix upgrades, slower customer base expansion, and supply chain risks due to geopolitical tensions [15] 8. **Market Position**: - Horizon Robotics aims to capture a larger market share in the ADAS & AD China market, with projections indicating growth from 2% in 2021 to 35% by 2027 [12] Additional Important Information - **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation is based on the correlation of EBITDA growth and trading EV/EBITDA multiples of peers, with a discounting back to 2026E using a COE of 11.5% [14] - **Market Capitalization**: As of the report, the market cap is HK$113.2 billion [16] - **Investment Recommendation**: The recommendation remains a "Buy" based on the company's growth prospects and strategic investments [1][10]

Core Insights - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is estimated to be around 2.15 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% and a month-on-month increase of 6.5%, with new energy vehicle (NEV) retail expected to reach 1.25 million units, achieving a penetration rate of approximately 58.1% [1][3] - The new energy vehicle market continues to see stable pricing and increasing penetration rates, which supports the overall automotive market [3] Company Performance - **Leap Motor**: Delivered 66,657 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 97.4% and a month-on-month increase of 16.8%. The growth is attributed to strong product offerings like C10 and B01, with C10 accounting for 27.1% of deliveries [4][5] - **Xpeng Motors**: Reported 41,581 units delivered in September, up 94.7% year-on-year and 10.3% month-on-month. The company has expanded its charging network significantly, with over 2,590 self-operated stations and more than 14,000 charging piles [5][6] - **NIO**: Achieved 34,749 units delivered in September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.1% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%. New models like ES8 and ET9 were launched, enhancing the product lineup [6] - **Li Auto**: Delivered 33,951 units in September, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% but a month-on-month increase of 19.0%. The company is focusing on expanding its charging network to maintain competitiveness [7] - **Zeekr**: Reported 18,257 units delivered in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% but a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. The new Zeekr 9X model was launched, featuring advanced technology [8] - **Xiaomi**: Delivered over 40,000 units in September, with the new SUV YU7 positioned as a competitive product in the market [8] Market Trends - The overall automotive market is experiencing growth, with stable pricing and increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, which is expected to continue supporting market dynamics [3] - The trend towards intelligent driving technology is accelerating, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge in promoting and iterating on smart driving capabilities [9] - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards smart technology, which is becoming a critical competitive factor among manufacturers [10]

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Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment recommendations for individual companies or suppliers in the intelligent driving sector [4][9]. Core Insights - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for automotive intelligence, with a projected increase in domestic electrification penetration rates to 50%-80% over the next three years, leading to a reshaping of the automotive landscape [4]. - Major intelligent driving manufacturers have successfully implemented complex urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) experiences, enhancing high-level functionalities such as parking and scene understanding [4]. - The report evaluates the intelligent driving experiences of ten manufacturers, including XPeng, NIO, and Tesla, through both large sample and small sample road tests, focusing on various dimensions such as scene implementation and comfort [4][9]. Summary by Sections Road Test Overview - The report includes both large sample concentrated road tests and small sample deep road tests to assess the performance of intelligent driving systems [8][27]. - The large sample tests involved approximately 50 participants testing various models along a standardized route, while the small sample tests were conducted by the same evaluators under similar conditions [9][27]. Intelligent Driving Models Tested - The models tested in September 2025 include XPeng P7, NIO ES8, and Tesla Model 3, among others, with specific versions noted for each [10][11]. Performance Evaluation - Compared to Q1 2025, Q3 2025 shows improvements in intelligent driving capabilities across all manufacturers, with a narrowing gap between the leading and following manufacturers [4]. - The report highlights that new entrants in the self-research sector are showing promising performance, with significant iterations expected in the coming months [4]. Specific Model Insights - XPeng's XOS 5.7.7 demonstrated excellent performance with an average takeover frequency of 1.51 times, showcasing strong capabilities in complex scenarios [34]. - The NIO ES8 with cedar model achieved an average takeover frequency of 2.03, indicating robust performance in urban environments [43]. - Tesla's FSD version 13.2 recorded a higher average takeover frequency of 5.73, suggesting areas for improvement in its intelligent driving capabilities [49]. Technical Developments - The report notes advancements in hardware and software across various manufacturers, with many now utilizing self-developed chips and algorithms [26][24]. - Specific improvements in driving comfort and efficiency were reported, with some models achieving significant enhancements in user experience metrics [22].

Core Insights - ECARX Holdings Inc. has launched a next-generation in-vehicle navigation system and the latest version of its Skyland New intelligent driving solution at IAA Mobility 2025 in Munich, highlighting its commitment to an innovative and scalable technology roadmap [1][4] Group 1: Navigation System - The new global navigation system is integrated with HERE's advanced navigation platform, designed for rapid integration and adaptability across more than 200 countries, ensuring compliance with international data regulations [2] - HERE's map data is utilized in over 222 million vehicles globally, supporting ECARX's goal to shorten automaker development cycles while adhering to regional regulatory requirements [2] - The navigation solution is currently supporting models from various automakers including Lotus, Lynk & Co, smart, and Hongqi, providing dynamic and personalized navigation experiences [2] Group 2: Intelligent Driving Solution - The latest iteration of the Skyland New intelligent driving solution utilizes a single system-on-a-chip architecture based on Black Sesame's Wudang C1236 chip, offering L2+ assisted driving and parking features [3] - Key features include map-free highway Navigate-on-Autopilot (NOA), Automatic Parking Assist (APA), and Remote Parking Assist (RPA), designed for cost-effective performance and seamless integration [3] - The Skyland solution, based on Black Sesame's Huashan A1000, is set to launch on the new Hongqi H9, H9+, and E-HS9 models by late 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Overview - ECARX is a global automotive technology provider that delivers full-stack solutions for next-generation smart vehicles, including system on a chip (SoC), central computing platforms, and software [5] - Founded in 2017 and listed on Nasdaq in 2022, ECARX employs over 1,600 people across 13 major locations worldwide [6] - The company has partnerships with notable automakers such as Volkswagen Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Peugeot-Citroën, with its products present in over 9.3 million vehicles globally [6]

Summary of Li Auto Inc. (LI/2015.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto Inc. - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Key Points and Arguments 1. Earnings Performance - Li Auto reported a 2Q25 result with sales volume down 2% year-over-year, while the overall NEV retail market in China grew by 29% [1][2] - The company guided for 3Q25 volume and revenue to be over 40% below expectations, primarily due to weak sales of L series EREV models (L7/L8/L9), which declined by 32% year-to-date [1][2] 2. Sales Volume and Pricing - Expected sales volume for 3Q25 is 90k-95k units, a decrease of 17% quarter-over-quarter, with a projected increase to 115k units in 4Q25, driven by the i8 ramp-up and i6 launch [2][6] - Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to increase by 2% in 3Q25 due to a higher sales mix of the MEGA model, but decline by 3% in 4Q25 due to the i6 launch [2][6] 3. Margin Outlook - Vehicle gross margin is projected to be 19% in 3Q25, down from 19.4% in 2Q25, but expected to recover to 19.4% in 4Q25 as sales volume increases [2][6] - Operating margin is anticipated to decline to 0.4% in 3Q25, improving to 1.5% in 4Q25 [2][6] 4. Product Strategy - Li Auto plans to accelerate product and technology refresh cycles, targeting a 2-year iteration speed for new models, compared to the industry average of 4 years [7] - The company will enhance its assisted driving capabilities with the release of the VLA driver large model, which aims to improve driving comfort and parking experience [7] 5. Self-Developed Technology - Li Auto's self-developed ADAS chips are expected to be deployed on flagship models starting next year, which could reduce BOM costs and improve margins [7] 6. Global Expansion - 2025 marks the beginning of Li Auto's global strategy, with R&D centers established in Germany and the US, targeting markets in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe [7] 7. Financial Estimates - Net profit estimates for 2025E-27E have been lowered from Rmb12.6/13.5/15.7 billion to Rmb5.3/8.9/12.6 billion due to the weaker outlook for L series models [3] - The 12-month DCF-based target prices have been adjusted from US$35.3/HK$138 to US$30.9/HK$120, indicating a potential upside of 37%/31% [3][10] 8. Investment Thesis - Li Auto is rated as a "Buy" with a 5% NEV market share in China for 2024, supported by improvements in urban NOA performance and a focus on AI [11] - The company has the best net cash position among major Chinese OEMs, which could facilitate future R&D spending [11] 9. Risks - Key risks include worsening market demand, intensifying competition, and potential pressure on volume and margins [11][12] Additional Important Information - Li Auto experienced Rmb3.0 billion of operating cash outflow in 2Q25, attributed to a decrease in accounts payables and shortened payment terms to 60 days [7] - The company is ramping up production capacity for the i8 model, targeting cumulative deliveries of 8k-10k by the end of September [4][6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook within the NEV industry.