Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a total of 36,279 vehicle deliveries in June 2025, with a total of 111,074 deliveries in Q2 2025, indicating a short-term fluctuation in sales due to changes in the sales team [1] Group 1: Delivery and Sales Performance - In June 2025, Li Auto delivered 36,279 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.2% [1] - The sales fluctuation is attributed to changes in the sales team, while product upgrades in May are expected to enhance product competitiveness [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Launches - Li Auto is set to accelerate its high-voltage pure electric product offerings in H2 2025, with the launch of the six-seat pure electric SUV Li i8 in July and the five-seat pure electric SUV Li i6 in September [1] - The product lineup will include four range-extended electric SUVs, one flagship MPV, and two high-voltage pure electric SUVs, aiming to optimize the product matrix and improve sales [1] Group 3: AI Development and Capabilities - Li Auto is enhancing its AI capabilities, leveraging its computational power and data scale, with a strategic focus on accelerating AI investment and development [1] - The OTA 7.4 version update introduced a new virtual assistant, enhancing the vehicle's smart capabilities and enabling complex transactions [1] Group 4: Infrastructure and Service Network - As of June 30, 2025, Li Auto has established 530 retail centers across 151 cities and 511 after-sales service centers across 222 cities [1] - The company has deployed 2,851 Li Supercharging stations with 15,655 charging piles nationwide, ensuring a robust service ecosystem to support steady sales growth [1] Group 5: Financial Projections - Li Auto's projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 164.4 billion, 239.6 billion, and 300.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 45.7%, and 25.5% respectively [2] - The expected net profits for the same period are 9.6 billion, 12.81 billion, and 18.35 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.6%, 33.4%, and 43.2% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.49, 5.98, and 8.57 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]

以下文章来源于启阳路4号 ，作者凤凰网财经 启阳路4号 . 聚焦财经热点事件，通过深度调查寻找财经真相。 来源|凤凰网财经《公司研究院》 核心提示 ： 1、蝉联年度造车新势力销量冠军的理想汽车交付量下滑，今年6月新车交付量同比减少23.4%，是 头部造车新势力中为数不多出现负增长的公司。 2、2024年，理想汽车毛利率为20.53%，相比2023年下滑近1.67个百分点，今年一季度进一步微 降至20.51%。 3、理想的目标不止造车。理想汽车董事长兼CEO李想近期表示，"未来我们就盯着一件事：AI 硬 件终端做出像iPhone那样颠覆性的产品"。 理想汽车董事长兼CEO李想站在台上，双手握着麦克风，表情少见地略显拘谨。他没有穿西装，身 边站着几位理想汽车高管。 音乐响起，四个人向台下观众献唱了一首歌曲，稍有跑调但唱得认真。 （图片来源于网络视频截图） 在理想汽车十周年的庆典上，李想显得腼腆但高兴，嘴角几乎没有放下来过。十年前，增程被视作 落后技术，或许很少有人能预见，主打增程的理想汽车竟会如此深刻地影响中国新能源家庭用车格 局。 但也是在这一天傍晚，理想公布其6月最新销量表现，恐怕不算一份让人满意的生日礼物。 ...

Group 1: Traditional Automakers Performance - BYD remains the sales leader with 2.146 million units sold in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 33% and a strong export growth of 80.6% [2][3] - Geely Automotive shows impressive growth with a total sales of over 1.4 million units, marking a 47% year-on-year increase, and its new energy vehicle sales have doubled [3][4] - Changan Automobile reaches its highest sales in nearly eight years with 1.355 million units sold, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth, while its new energy vehicle sales grow by 48.8% [4] - Chery Group achieves a total sales of approximately 1.26 million units, a 14.5% increase, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 98.6% [4][6] - Great Wall Motors experiences slight growth with total sales of about 569,000 units, a 1.84% increase, although some brands like Ora and Tank show declines [6] Group 2: New Forces in the Automotive Market - Leap Motor tops the new energy vehicle segment with a remarkable 155.7% growth, delivering 221,700 units, surpassing Li Auto for the first time [7][9] - Xiaomi Automotive shows significant potential with a staggering 456% growth, delivering over 150,000 units, and aims for a revised target of 350,000 units [11] - Xpeng Motors also demonstrates strong performance with a 279% increase in sales, delivering 197,200 units [10][12] - NIO achieves a 30.6% year-on-year growth with over 110,000 units delivered [12] - Huawei's AITO brand, under the new forces, faces challenges with a heavy reliance on the Wenjie brand, which accounts for 80% of its total sales [10] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The competition in the automotive market is intensifying, with a clear focus on new energy and smart technology as the main battleground [13] - Traditional and new automakers are accelerating their product and technology deployments to prepare for the second half of the year [13]

2025 年 07 月 08 日 反内卷；继峰股份、福达股份；长 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 汽车 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 城汽车更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W114） ⚫ 反内卷：我们认为反内卷的核心在于解决供需错配，政策重心预计将从需求刺激转向供 给控制。未来新增产能审批或将更加困难。打破"价格战"的关键在于推出能激发潜在 需求的特色产品，小米 YU7 的成功便是有力范例，证明了独特产品能实现市场"破 圈"扩容。我们判断，下半年中高端市场中，能提供差异化产品的品牌，如理想、江 淮、赛力斯、小米等，将拥有获取超额收益的机会，值得重点关注。 ⚫ 福达股份：福达主业扎实，二季度经营性业绩可能实现 6500 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华龙证券发布研报称，截至2025H1，申万汽车上涨8.91%，领先沪深300指数 8.88pct，其中乘用车以及汽车零部件板块分别受益于智驾平权和人形机器人催化，超额收益明显。展望 2025年下半年，自主乘用车迎来国内格局收敛、出海加速拓展的关键阶段，份额提升&海外销量增长可 期;L2&L4均迎来放量，中高阶智驾加速普及，Robotaxi运营规模扩张;人形机器人长期产业趋势不变， 关注核心增量环节，维持行业"推荐"评级。 华龙证券主要观点如下： 乘用车市场格局有望加速收敛 进入2025年，特斯拉、Figure AI和优必选等领先的人形机器人厂商积极布局工业场景，随着工业场景规 模化部署逐步落地，大量优质实机数据有望进一步提升机器人通用能力，或形成飞轮效应，推进量产加 速。面向最复杂的家用场景，人形机器人在认知决策、续航耐久、精巧操作和运动控制方面痛点仍存， 建议关注灵巧手、丝杠和传感器等核心增量环节。 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险;政策变动风险;原材料价格波动风险;地缘政治风险;重点上市车型销量不 及预期;人形机器人量产节奏不及预期;第三方数据的误差风险;重点关注公司业绩不及预期。 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the different design philosophies between electric vehicles (EVs) and traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, emphasizing that there is no absolute right or wrong in these choices, but they lead to different commercial outcomes in the short, medium, and long term [1]. Group 1: Design Philosophy - The design of Xiaomi's SU7 and YU7 has received positive feedback for its aesthetics, which closely resemble those of traditional ICE vehicles [2]. - Xiaomi prioritizes aesthetics in its design philosophy, aiming for mainstream consumers to find the vehicles visually appealing at first glance [1][2]. - The criticism of Li Auto's MEGA design led to adjustments in the appearance of its i8 and i6 models, indicating a shift towards more conventional aesthetics [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Xiaomi has shown strong financial performance over the past 15 months, while Li Auto's financial results have not met earlier expectations, leading to dissatisfaction regarding its design choices [2]. - Public sentiment towards a company's design and decisions often correlates with its financial performance; positive results lead to praise, while negative results lead to criticism [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's first-generation EV design has set a standard in the industry for the past decade, focusing on low drag, good handling, low energy consumption, and long range [2][3]. - Li Auto has built upon Tesla's design principles, potentially leading the industry for the next 5-10 years due to the significant user value of its design approach [3]. Group 4: Technical Aspects - Li Auto has not surpassed Tesla in low drag, handling, energy efficiency, or range, as these aspects are largely dictated by physical laws and design choices [4]. - Xiaomi's SU7 MAX is designed to match Tesla's Model 3 Performance in handling, indicating its capability to achieve similar performance levels [5]. - Li Auto's approach to charging infrastructure and design after removing the engine is seen as a competitive advantage, focusing on user experience with fast charging capabilities [5][6]. Group 5: User Value Considerations - Li Auto prioritizes internal space over front trunk space, believing that maximizing internal space will provide greater user value, especially with the future of autonomous driving [6]. - The design choices made by Li Auto reflect a belief that internal space will be more valuable than aesthetic considerations derived from traditional vehicle designs [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and strong alpha companies [3][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is transitioning between the third and fourth consumption eras, with a notable expansion in mid-to-large SUVs and personalized products, indicating untapped consumer potential [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative supply to stimulate market demand, highlighting products like Yu7, Zun Jie S800, and upcoming models from Li Auto as key drivers [4]. - The report suggests continued attention to strong alpha manufacturers such as Li Auto, JAC, Xiaomi, and Seres, as well as their corresponding supply chain companies [4]. Industry Update - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 570,000 units in the 26th week of 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.38%. Traditional energy vehicles sold approximately 274,000 units, down 7.43%, while new energy vehicles sold 296,000 units, up 4.96%, achieving a penetration rate of 51.93% [4]. - The automotive industry experienced a total transaction value of 425.645 billion yuan this week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.01% [4]. - The automotive industry index rose by 0.10% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.54%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [11]. Market Conditions - The report notes that 123 automotive stocks rose while 159 fell this week, with the largest gainers being TaoTao Automotive, Hunan Tianyan, and Zhengyu Industrial, which saw increases of 29.8%, 21.0%, and 18.3%, respectively [15]. - Key events include the launch of the Xiaopeng G7, which exceeded pricing expectations and features advanced autonomous driving capabilities, and the opening of BYD's factory in Brazil, enhancing its presence in the Latin American market [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xiaopeng, as well as companies involved in the trend of smart technology, including Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC Motor, and identifying component manufacturers with strong growth potential, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4]. Key Events - Xiaopeng G7 was launched with a starting price of 195,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a significant increase in autonomous driving performance [5][41]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil aims for an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, with plans to expand to 300,000 units, marking a significant step in its global strategy [8][9].

与中高端市场销量分化的趋势相比，产品均价在20万元以下的 几个品牌，如零跑汽车、小鹏汽车、深蓝汽车等则实现了高速 增长。 作者：王帅国 封图：本报资料库 进入7月，多家车企陆续发布了2025年上半年交付成绩。整体来看，产品售价在30万元以上的中高端品牌，呈现销量增速分化状态，理想汽车、蔚来汽 车增速下滑，岚图汽车、方程豹汽车等由于基数较小，增速较快；产品均价在20万元到30万元之间的品牌亦有分化趋势，小米汽车增长迅速，极氪汽 车则略显乏力；产品均价在20万元以下的几个品牌，如零跑汽车、小鹏汽车、深蓝汽车等均实现了高速增长。 具体而言，在产品平均售价30万元以上的高端品牌中，问界汽车6月全系交付4.47万辆，同比增长4.45%。其中问界M9 2025款交付1.37万辆，问界M8 交付2.12万辆。 理想汽车6月交付新车3.63万辆，同比下降24.06%。上半年，理想汽车交付20.39万辆，同比增长7.91%。理想汽车董事长兼CEO李想近日表示："今年 是理想汽车充满机遇和挑战的一年，上半年我们完成了全系在售产品的智能焕新。下半年高压纯电产品将加速发力，家庭六座纯电SUV理想i8将于7月 上市，家庭五座纯电SUV ...

7月1日，国内造车新势力相继披露了今年6月及上半年的销量数据。零跑、鸿蒙智行、理想 上半年销量均突破20万辆。 其中零跑以22.17万辆同比激增155.8%的成绩首度登顶半年销量榜。 鸿蒙智行、 理想汽 车、小鹏汽车紧随其后，小米汽车6月交付量出现环比下滑。 | 车企 | 2025H1(单位:万辆) | 2024H1(单位:万辆) | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 零跑汽车 | 22.17 | 8.7 | 155.8% | | 鸿蒙智行 | 20.62* | 19.42 | 6.2% | | 理想汽车 | 20.38 | 18.9 | 7.8% | | 小鹏汽车 | 19.72 | 5.2 | 279% | | 广汽埃安 | 15.23 | 17.74 | -14.2% | | 小米汽车 | 15+ | 2.7 | 456% | | 深蓝汽车 | 14.32 | 8.39 | 70.8% | | 蔚来汽车 | 11.42 | 8.74 | 30.6% | | 极気 | 9.07 | 8.79 | 3% | | 阿维塔 | 5.91 | 2.9 | 103.5% | | 岚图 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车：6 月销量 3.6 万辆，看好后续 i8 等新 车贡献增量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 理想 2025 年 6 月销量 3.6 万辆，同比下滑 24.1%%，环比下滑 11.2%。理想汽车产品优势和 品牌设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大 理想汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 2025-07-03 港股研究丨公司点评 research.95579.com 1 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车：62]月销量 3.6 万辆，看好后续 i8 等 新车贡献增量 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 理想 2025 年 6 月销量 3.6 万辆，同比下滑 24.1%，环比下滑 11. ...