Macro Overview - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding China's holiday economy, with moderate growth in consumption during the National Day holiday. Key trends include strong performance in green, smart, and experiential consumption [2][4] - Despite recent relaxations in real estate policies in first-tier cities, the real estate market remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales [3][6] - The report anticipates that core CPI and PPI growth will rebound, alleviating deflationary pressures, with liquidity conditions expected to remain loose for at least the next two quarters [2][7][8] Internet Sector - The online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience, with keywords "quality" and "long-distance travel" indicating strong demand. Long-distance travel bookings on Ctrip increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year [28][30] - During the holiday, Alibaba's Fliggy reported a 14.6% year-on-year increase in average transaction value, while Tongcheng Travel noted nearly 100% growth in outbound group travel bookings [28][31] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Ctrip (TCOM US) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) based on these positive trends [28] Consumer Discretionary - The report expresses a cautious outlook for retail sales growth during the 2025 National Day holiday, attributing potential risks to high base effects from 2024, lack of government subsidies, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures [32][35] - The report highlights a preference for consumer downgrade themes and high-dividend stocks, with concerns over profit margin pressures due to increased competition and discounting [32][35] Automotive Sector - The report notes a significant divergence in sales during the National Day holiday, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) outperforming traditional fuel vehicles. The introduction of popular NEV models is expected to drive order growth [6][32] - The forecast for national passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales in 2025 has been slightly raised, reflecting better-than-expected sales in Q3 and potential pre-purchase demand for NEVs [6][32] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the effectiveness of real estate policies is diminishing, with a notable decline in sales volume for new and second-hand homes during the holiday period [3][6] - The report anticipates that further easing measures may be necessary to stimulate housing demand, as sales data remains weak despite policy support [3][6] Selected Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), Guoquan (2517 HK), Green Tea Group (6831 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), and JS Global Life (1691 HK) [33][41]

国庆假期已过，又到了销售总结的时候啦。这篇话题找了5位新势力品牌的销售，大家各自聊聊店里的销售情况。 话题拆分： 1.这个假期店里客流和销量怎么样？ 2.哪款车热度最高，大家都在关注什么？ 3.国庆期间店里开展促销活动了吗，有哪些政策？ 4.针对省补暂停、购置税补贴即将退坡等影响，有什么举措？ 5.当地有无车展？你觉得车展获客效果还好吗？ 国庆 客流还是很多的，主要近期发了几款新品，热度都挺高的，销量比前两个月好一些 。 但是相较于去年同期， 客流有所下滑 ，主要是同城今年又开了两 家店，分流比较多 。 目前相当一部分人都在看问界M7，十个人进店有6-7个会提到，从问界M7延伸也会看问界M8 和 智界R7 。 最重要 的 还是价格，有六座需求的都会上 M8，价格敏感一些的都去看R7 。 主要促销活动是进店试驾有礼，其余车型相关方面的政策基本跟上月保持一致，智界两款新品 、 S9T 、 M7 、 尚界H5都是刚上市，还在首销期内，有首 销权益。 这个假期客流是非常爆棚的，因为小米17的热销带来了很多客户，但销量那就没法说了，客户一问交付时间就直摇头。 现在Yu7热度最高，大家最关注的就是交付时间，好多好大哥拍拍 ...

不过，部分地区汽车置换更新补贴的暂停对客流产生一定影响。例如，某自主品牌销售门店工作人员对 《证券日报》记者表示，补贴退出后，到店客户和成交量明显减少，不少消费者选择观望。 近期上市的新能源汽车成为消费者试乘试驾的热点车型。北京某新势力车企销售门店工作人员向《证券 日报》记者透露，国庆中秋假期期间，客流是平日的3倍，新能源车型试乘需排队40分钟。记者注意 到，在销售门店内，部分消费者甚至带着计算器现场对比补贴力度；在青岛万象城上汽大众汽车有限公 司（以下简称"上汽大众"）展区，主打油电同智的新款途昂Pro引得消费者竞相试乘。 本报记者 刘钊 "国庆中秋8天长假，我用4天时间试驾了市面上的几款热门车型，这些车性价比很高，我已经成功下 单。"刚刚从青岛某新势力车企4S销售门店走出来的张先生高兴地对《证券日报》记者说，"原先新车需 要几个月的生产排期，现在普遍上市就能提车，下个星期我就能开着新车去上班了。" 据了解，国庆中秋假期，苏州、南京、广州等多地举办了大型车展，车企携数千款车型集中亮相，叠加 购车补贴、消费券等政策利好，带动车市成交及销售金额增长。 从市场表现来看，9月份的乘用车销量同比稳步增长，新能源汽车占 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant changes in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market in September 2025, highlighting the competitive landscape among various brands and their delivery volumes [2][34]. - It emphasizes the rise of brands like Leap Motor and Xiaomi, while traditional automakers face challenges in the NEV segment [34][35]. Delivery Rankings - Leap Motor leads with 66,657 units delivered, a 97% year-on-year increase, followed by XPeng with 41,581 units (95% increase) and AITO with 40,619 units (14% increase) [3][4]. - Xiaomi's delivery surpasses 40,000 units for the first time, marking a 300% year-on-year increase, indicating improved production capacity [5][20]. - NIO ranks fifth with 34,749 units delivered, showing a 64% year-on-year growth, while Li Auto ranks sixth with 33,951 units, down 37% year-on-year [6][29]. Brand Strategies - Leap Motor's strategy focuses on offering high-value features at competitive prices, appealing to cost-conscious consumers [11][15]. - XPeng's growth is attributed to aggressive promotional financing policies, although concerns about profitability remain due to high discounting [15][35]. - AITO maintains a strong position in the high-end market, with its models contributing significantly to its sales [16][19]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that traditional automakers' NEV brands are growing but struggle to compete with the top new energy players [8][34]. - The monthly delivery threshold for leading brands has risen to 40,000 units, creating a competitive barrier for those unable to meet this volume [8][34]. Future Trends - The article identifies key trends such as the mainstream adoption of range-extended technology and the increasing competitiveness of traditional luxury brands in the NEV market [35][36]. - It suggests that the future winners in the NEV market will be those who can balance cost control through scale while offering differentiated technological experiences [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing significant changes, with new players like Leap Motor and Xiaomi making substantial gains in delivery volumes, while traditional brands face challenges in maintaining their positions [1][20]. Group 1: Delivery Rankings and Performance - Leap Motor leads the delivery rankings with 66,657 units, showing a 97% year-on-year increase and a 17% month-on-month increase [2][3]. - Xiaomi enters the top four for the first time with over 40,000 deliveries, marking a 300% year-on-year increase and a 33% month-on-month increase [2][4]. - NIO ranks fifth with 34,749 units delivered, reflecting a 64% year-on-year growth, indicating the effectiveness of its multi-brand strategy [5][14]. - Li Auto's performance is mixed, with 33,951 units delivered, a 19% month-on-month increase but a 37% year-on-year decline [6][18]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The market is seeing a shift where traditional automakers' new energy brands are growing but struggle to pose a significant threat to the top six new energy players [7]. - Leap Motor's strategy focuses on offering high-value features in mainstream models, appealing to cost-conscious consumers [8][9]. - Xiaomi's growth is attributed to improved production capacity, although it faces challenges with long wait times for customers [12][13]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is evolving, with brands like Aion experiencing a nearly 20% year-on-year decline, while BYD's Equation Leopard sees a 345% increase [7][14]. - The delivery threshold for the top tier has risen to 40,000 units per month, creating a gap for brands unable to meet this benchmark [7][20]. - The introduction of new models, such as Li Auto's i6, is seen as a potential solution to declining sales, but internal competition may pose challenges [18][19]. Group 4: Future Trends - The market is expected to further differentiate, with technological advancements becoming crucial for maintaining competitiveness [21][22]. - Traditional luxury brands are beginning to take the electric vehicle market seriously, as seen with the local production of Mercedes-Benz's electric CLA [21]. - The overall conclusion points to a future where the winners will be those who can balance cost control through scale while offering differentiated experiences through technology and multi-brand strategies [23].

2025年9月30日，有人给TOP2说i6可能发战报，这个属于消息层面的事。 目前结合消息面与推理面，TOP2仍然倾向理想可能发i6战报，可能不发，可能发的概率大一些。 TOP2总体倾向吸引认可TOP2推理层面价值的读者，不希望吸引希望获得各种非公开信息的读者。 分析判断理想实际经营动作的锚点之一是，只要李想还是内核精神上的实际控制人（这点与法律或规章层面的实际控制人有所区别），那么理想唯一不 变的只有以挑战成长的极限作为最终驱动力，其他都可能变。TOP2挺早就在说，更长时间周期，理想未必会坚持移动的家，幸福的家，或者家用车理 念。这次i6整体宣发上，就没有小孩带娃元素。 其实家用车这个定义非常宽泛，所有非主要商用的，其实都可以归为家用范畴，此前理想对家用定义比较局限于要带12岁以下的小孩。 理想在做的是，以挑战成长的极限为奖励函数的强化学习。具体的经营策略就是会依据环境的反馈变来变去的。 理想的确是倾向不发锁单/大定战报的，原因之一是理想一方面全直营，方面整体诚实度高，导致理想如果要发，只能发真数据，另一方面理想的大定销 量曲线上，整体属于早期大定数据看起来很不亮眼，这导致发了也起不到什么好效果。 2025 ...

Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing significant growth, with several companies reporting impressive sales figures for August 2023, particularly in the new car manufacturing sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Leap Motor achieved the highest sales in August with 57,000 units delivered, marking an 88% year-on-year increase and a total of 329,000 units sold from January to August, a 136% increase [1][2]. - Hongmeng Zhixing ranked second with 45,000 units sold in August, a 32% increase, and a total of 292,000 units for the year, up 7% [2][4]. - Xiaopeng Motors reported sales of 38,000 units in August, a remarkable 169% increase, with a total of 272,000 units sold from January to August, reflecting a 252% growth [2][4]. - NIO also showed recovery with 31,000 units sold in August, a 55% increase, supported by new models like the L90 [4][5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall trend in the new energy vehicle sector indicates that most companies, except for Li Auto and Zeekr, are experiencing growth, with some brands seeing year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [3]. - Traditional automakers are also witnessing growth in their new energy divisions, with companies like BYD maintaining a leading position with 374,000 units sold in August, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [7][8]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands like Geely and Changan showing significant growth rates of 95% and 80% respectively in August [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Leap Motor's financial performance is improving, with a reported revenue of 24.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 million yuan for the first half of the year, marking its first half-year profitability [1]. - Xiaomi Motors has set an ambitious annual sales target of 350,000 units, having sold approximately 220,000 units so far this year [5]. - Li Auto is adjusting its sales and revenue guidance for the third quarter due to various factors affecting its current model lineup [5].

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto (LI.US) aims to enter the high-end pure electric SUV market by 2025, targeting a sales ranking of "top five, striving for top three" with monthly sales goals set between 18,000 to 20,000 units [1] Group 1 - Li Auto's founder and CEO, Li Xiang, announced the company's strategic focus on three pure electric models: MEGA, i6, and i8 [1] - The MEGA model has already achieved monthly sales exceeding 3,000 units [1] - The i6 model has a sales target of 9,000 to 10,000 units per month, while the i8 aims for over 6,000 units monthly [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto (LI.US) aims to enter the high-end pure electric SUV market by 2025, targeting a sales ranking of "top five, striving for top three" with a monthly sales goal of 18,000 to 20,000 units [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Li Auto's founder and CEO, Li Xiang, announced the company's strategy to focus on three pure electric models: MEGA, i6, and i8 [1] - The MEGA model has already achieved monthly sales exceeding 3,000 units [1] - The i6 model aims for monthly sales between 9,000 and 10,000 units, while the i8 model targets over 6,000 units per month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to anticipated challenges in sales and profitability, particularly influenced by the performance of the i6 model and ongoing market competition [1][2][3] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down from 166.2 billion, 215.6 billion, and 244.0 billion to 120.9 billion, 154.4 billion, and 182.8 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16.3%, 27.8%, and 18.3% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have been reduced from 11.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 22.8 billion to 5.9 billion, 9.4 billion, and 13.5 billion, with corresponding price-to-sales (PS) ratios of 1.5, 1.2, and 1.0 and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30.5, 19.3, and 13.6 [1] Group 2: Q2 Performance Insights - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 30.25 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17%, with vehicle deliveries slightly exceeding revised guidance at 111,000 units [2] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 6,000 to 260,000, attributed to financial subsidies and sales incentives, while the gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 20.1% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 was 1.47 billion, down 2% year-on-year but up 45% quarter-on-quarter, with a per vehicle net profit of approximately 13,000 [2] Group 3: Future Sales and Product Strategy - The sales performance in 2025 is expected to heavily depend on the i6 model's ability to reverse current trends, with guidance for Q3 2025 indicating revenue between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion and deliveries of 90,000 to 95,000 units [3] - The company plans to upgrade its entire range of AD Max models in September 2025, enhancing the VLA system, which is anticipated to significantly improve the smart driving experience [3] - The introduction of self-developed chips in 2026 is expected to support the company's goal of achieving Level 4 autonomous driving by 2027, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market [3]