证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-22 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250818：高质量发展孕育"创新牛" 四重"创新"带来流动性和估值的双重改善 2025 年的"创新牛"本质 是政策引导下资本定价后产业落地的正向循环。宏观政策通过财政货币 工具锚定产业方向，资本市场通过制度创新实现价值发现，增量资金提供 流动性支撑，最终产业趋势通过技术突破兑现盈利。当前，这一闭环仍在 强化：宏观政策的落地仍在进程中、"科特估"体系在逐步完善、中长期 资金入市将逐年完成指标要求、技术国产化盈利尚未完全释放潜力。 当 前，市场的流动性和估值已有改善，随着 2025 年 8 月 13 日 A 股成交额 再次突破 2 万亿元，成交额持续抬升的过程中市场仍在向上突破，呈现 交易结构和情绪的正向循环。融资余额超过 2 万亿创历史新高，保险资 金持续举牌仍在增持金融股，在市场情绪持续向好、增量资金持续入场和 科技产业创新持续突破的背景下，"创新牛"的初期，市场风格大概率沿 着长线资金偏好的金融板块和科技产业有趋势的板块的机器人、海内外 算力、创新药等方向继续延伸。未 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 | 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 1）新车维度 小鹏新P7将于8月27日正式上市 并推动公司从2025年9月起月交付量稳健超过4 万台；2025Q4小鹏汽车将进入"一车双能"大产品周期，推出首款车型鲲鹏超电X9。2）智能化 维度：小鹏Ultra版本车型搭载三颗自研图灵AI芯片，有效算力达2250 TOPS，支持部署端侧 VLA和VLM大模型，2025年8月将开始灰度推送VLA初始版本并在后续月度快速迭代。 盈利预测与投资评级： 考虑公司新车节奏调整，我们下调公司2025~2027年营业收入预期分别为830/1494/2229亿元 （原值为947/1676/2491亿元），同比分别+103%/+80%/+49%。考虑到公司考虑研发费用增加 和新车型上市费用增加，下调2025~2027年归母净利润为-13/68/103亿元（原值为4/76/120亿 元）。2025/2026/2027年EPS分别为-0.68/3.55/5.41元，2026/2027年对应PE分别为21/14倍，考虑 公司公司毛利率水平不断提升，AI底层竞争力不断增强，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示： 乘 ...

1、总体分析： 交付量在稳步回升 周度更新：8.11-8.17，乘用车总量 43.8万辆，环比增长14.22%，新能源 24.8万辆，前值21.9 万辆 ，环比增长12.94%，新能源渗透率56.6%。总体来看，随着近期问界 等车企高温假恢复生产，交付环比大增，后续随着金9银10的到来，交付量会持续攀高。从渗透率角度分析，近两周的渗透率有些奇高，油车在高息高反被禁之后，会 迎来一波萎靡，现在单纯靠降价已经已经不能吸引到消费者了，产品力是最大依仗。 2、具体品牌分析： 比亚迪：本周交付6.5万辆，创近7周交付量新高，除了受价格战以及反内卷的影响外，比亚迪目前遇到的问题是产品定义以及竞争对手的围追堵截（吉利），其次各 经销售商在为818购车节做准备。看下具体车型，第一个海狮06，自从海狮06上市以来交付量持续攀高，dmi+ev本周来到5800台，月底冲击2万 很有机会，第二个就是 海豹06，在做了SKU精简之后，销量还是不错的，本周来到了5600辆。这台车主要是借着比亚迪的供应链从小鹏mona 03抢市场，10万级别的车，迪子的竞争力很 强。， 汉L，唐L仍然萎靡不振，每周不到1000台，汉L更是不足500台，感 ...

小鹏汽车迎来反转： 1. 新P7和X9增程共振 1.不发布预售价正确，让讨论舆论回归产品而非价格 2.全系标配下探不到SU7普通版，但有机会到SU7 max版，到24万 3.虽然定位旗舰和品牌向上，但公司战略依然是让消费者花钱买到实打实的配置和产品力，公司仍会保留合理的毛利率 4. 从设计而言，公司并不是定位为冲销量的车型，月销8000预期过高。如果是月销5000但让用户非常喜欢满意就很好。而且销量是纯增量，交付上量后有机 会冲4.5万，四季度有机会冲5万 5.目的是让更多用户认可小鹏，哪怕不选购这个车，也认可小鹏的创新，树立品牌形象，逆转品牌的设计口碑 2. 但核心还是P7口碑反转，之前P7被低估 P7口碑为什么反转？ 1.主观投资者反馈口碑反转和客观分析造型的优势（比例姿态以光影为线等） 2. 背后是去年开始公司的理念转变：从科技第一到颜值也要第一 3.造型拍板在23年低谷期没有做妥协打安全牌，反映管理层的魄力和引领行业的精神 售价和销量预期 对品牌向上怎么看 1.验证左手科技右手艺术 2.创新是小鹏最好的路也是唯一的路，从品牌势能，适合做基于经典的比例做原创（反例 理想） 3.不要对品牌有固有印象，品牌 ...

Core Insights - The recent trend in the automotive industry highlights the increasing focus on front trunks as a differentiating feature among electric vehicle manufacturers, with various innovative designs emerging to attract consumer attention [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The introduction of front trunks has shifted from being a niche feature in traditional fuel vehicles to a mainstream consideration in electric vehicles, driven by advancements in electric motor miniaturization and battery layout [2] - The competition among manufacturers has intensified, with models like the Leida L90 boasting a front trunk capacity of 240 liters, equivalent to the trunk space of a compact SUV, showcasing the trend towards larger and more functional front trunks [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Experience - Consumers have reported practical benefits from front trunks, such as enhanced storage for outdoor activities, which alleviates the need for additional trips to retrieve items [3] - However, there are concerns regarding the practicality of front trunks, with some users finding the operation cumbersome compared to traditional trunks, highlighting a gap between marketing and actual usability [4] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The competition surrounding front trunks has evolved into a demonstration of technical capabilities, with manufacturers needing to balance large capacity and safety within limited space [4] - Ultimately, the success of front trunk designs will depend on their ability to meet real consumer needs while addressing usability issues, indicating a deeper understanding of market demands [4]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结：七月第五周交强险46.2万辆，环比上周/上月周度+5.0%/+16.2%。 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SW摩托车及其他(+9.6%) >SW汽车零部件(+4.5%) >SW汽车 （+2.7%）>SW商用载客车(+2.6%) > SW乘用车(-0.7%) > SＷ商用载货车(-4.2%) 。本周已覆盖 标的春风动力、新泉股份、小鹏汽车-W、明阳科技、恒帅股份涨幅前五。 本周团队研究成果： 外发春风动力、小马智行深度报告，外发春风动力H1销量点评、宇通客车7月销量点评。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 小鹏新P7于8月6日首秀，打造集造型设计、智能座舱、操控续航、智能辅助驾驶于一体的 轿跑，新车预计将于8月上市； 2） 理想i8 SKU调整&降价，标配即顶配；理想i8配置统一至 max版：取消pro，max降1万元；ultra降2万元； 3） 问界全新M7登陆工信部公告，采用最新家 族设计语言，轴距3030mm（老版M7轴距为2820mm），提供五/六座版，EV/EREV两种能源类 型。 2025H2建议加大汽车红利风格配置权重。 本周市场对汽车核心关注？ 本周汽车A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in investment weight towards automotive dividend style configurations for the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 5.0% week-on-week increase in compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles, totaling 462,000 units in the last week of July [2][50]. - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the launch of new models from major players like Xiaopeng and Li Auto, which are expected to enhance market competitiveness [2][3]. - The report anticipates a structural market opportunity as the industry transitions towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with a recommendation to focus on companies leading in AI and robotics innovation [3][54]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 6th in A-shares and 21st in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with motorcycles showing the best performance [7][15]. - The report notes that the SW motorcycle and other segments increased by 9.6%, while the SW passenger vehicle segment decreased by 0.7% [2][16]. Industry Changes - Key changes include the unveiling of Xiaopeng's new P7 model and pricing adjustments for Li Auto's i8, which aims to enhance customer appeal [2][3]. - The report discusses the introduction of new policies to support vehicle scrappage and replacement, which are expected to boost domestic consumption [51][59]. Sales and Forecasts - The report projects a total of 23.69 million passenger vehicles to be sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [51][52]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60.6% by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [52][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocations in sectors benefiting from the automotive dividend, including buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers, while also focusing on AI and robotics components [3][54]. - Specific stocks recommended include Spring Power, Yutong Bus, and major players in the electric vehicle market such as Xiaopeng and Li Auto [3][64].

出品丨虎嗅汽车组 作者丨李赓 头图丨小鹏汽车 "P7"这个名字，对于小鹏来说一直有着特别的意义。 第一代"P7"作为小鹏汽车旗下第二款产品，不仅曾为小鹏贡献了众多销量，同时还以超前的外形和产品力组 合，奠定了小鹏这个新势力品牌存在的意义。 2025年8月6日晚，小鹏汽车举办了全新小鹏P7的首秀发布会，新车正式亮相并同步开启预订。发布会未公布具 体预售价格，但何小鹏表示最终定价将于本月正式上市时公布。新车发布6分37秒，小订单突破1万台。 本期车圈脉动VOL.9，聚焦小鹏"新P7"，试图解析这款产品在小鹏产品大年中的重要地位，探讨其究竟有何意 义，又将为小鹏带来怎样的推动作用。 小鹏新P7：品牌与技术的一 次"ALL IN" 技术上的"ALLIN"：小鹏将最新的三颗自研图灵AI芯片（算力2250TOPS）、800V高压平台、双腔空悬 等"满血"技术，全部下放给全新P7； 设计理念的颠覆：造型方面，全新P7追求低趴宽体修长，整车的视觉比例很有力量，很有70、80美式肌肉 车的风格。何小鹏在发布会上花了超过一半的时间来讲解设计。他明确提出，小鹏未来的新车要求是"造型 做好的情况下再谈其他"，概括来说就是从"中用"到 ...

Core Insights - The new Xiaopeng P7 has launched pre-sales in 228 cities across China, following its debut event, raising questions about its potential to replicate past sales success [1] - The P7 is Xiaopeng's second mass-produced model, initially launched to compete with the domestic Tesla Model 3, achieving over 60,000 deliveries in 2021 and making Xiaopeng the top new energy vehicle brand that year [1] - However, the competitive landscape for electric vehicles in China has intensified since 2022, leading to a decline in P7's competitiveness and a prolonged sales slump for Xiaopeng until the introduction of the MONA M03 model [1] - Xiaopeng's chairman announced that the new P7 will officially launch this month, with a predicted price range of 250,000 to 350,000 yuan, and over 10,000 orders were placed within 7 minutes of the pre-sale opening [1] Product Features - The new P7 features a completely redesigned exterior that emphasizes a more stylish and technologically advanced coupe appearance [2] - It will be available in three versions: a 702 km long-range version, an 820 km ultra-long-range version, and a 750 km high-performance version, all capable of achieving 525 km of range with just 10 minutes of fast charging [2]