2025 年 1 月 9 日 公司研究 国内领先的智驾解决方案供应商，软硬件深度协同助力扩大市场份额 ——地平线机器人-W（9660.HK）投资价值分析报告 要点 地平线机器人是领先的 ADAS+AD 解决方案供应商，于 2024 年 10 月登陆 香 港联交所上市。公司成立于 2015 年，经过近 十 年的发展，已成为 ADAS+AD 解决方案的领先供应商，为行业领先的 OEM 和国产汽车制造一 级供应商提供辅助及高阶自动驾驶解决方案。根据佐思汽研和高工智能汽车 统计数据，公司在 L2 及以下（24H1）/L2+及以上芯片（24M1-24M8）市 场份额分别位列第一/四位。公司于 2024 年 10 月 24 日登陆香港联交所上 市。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 智能驾驶行业空间广阔，ADAS+AD 渗透率持续提升。欧盟、美国、日韩等 多国/区域出台政策推动汽车智能化发展。另外，我们预计随着国内外 L3 相 关责任认定的政策出台，L3 级自动驾驶的渗透率将迎来向上拐点。根据公 司招股说明书，预计 2026 年、2030 年中国智能汽车销量分别达到 2,040、 2,980 万台，ADAS+AD 渗透率分别达 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Horizon Robotics-W (09660 HK) with a target price of HKD 3 82 per share, implying a 2026E P/S of 9 5x and a forward PE of less than 30x based on steady-state assumptions [2] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading domestic intelligent driving solution provider, ranking fourth in China's ADAS and AD solution market in 2023 and first among Chinese companies [2] - The company holds a 35% market share in China's NOA high-end intelligent driving computing solutions, second only to NVIDIA's 49% [2] - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to reach RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions dominating the market [2] - Horizon Robotics benefits from its strong software-hardware integration capabilities, first-mover advantage, and domestic substitution trends [2] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics generated RMB 1 55 billion in revenue in 2023, with automotive product solutions, licensing and services, and non-automotive solutions accounting for 33%, 62%, and 5% respectively [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 5 billion by 2026 [2] - Horizon Robotics' core management team has strong technical backgrounds, with founders holding significant voting power (53 64% and 12 09%) [80][93] Industry Analysis - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to grow from RMB 61 9 billion in 2023 to over RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 49 2% [106] - In China, the market is projected to expand from RMB 24 5 billion in 2023 to RMB 407 billion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions growing at a CAGR of 58 5% [108] - Key drivers include rapid technological iteration, increasing penetration of intelligent driving, rising ASPs for high-end solutions, and supportive government policies [113] Competitive Advantages - Horizon Robotics' strengths lie in its software-defined hardware approach, strong customer stickiness due to high switching costs, and its position as a domestic player benefiting from localization trends [2] - The company has established a comprehensive product portfolio, including Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, with the latter expected to contribute to revenue from 2024 [71][76] Growth Drivers - The company's hardware business is expected to benefit from the downward penetration of intelligent driving in the automotive sector, while its software business will gain from OEMs' increasing in-house R&D efforts [2] - Horizon Robotics' partnership with Volkswagen through the joint venture Coretronic is expected to drive growth in licensing and services [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 2 24 billion in 2024E to RMB 4 97 billion in 2026E, with non-GAAP net profit turning positive in 2026E at RMB 322 million [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain strong, ranging between 70%-80%, driven by the high-margin licensing business [99]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·半导体(HS) 地平线机器人-W（09660.HK） 国内智驾解决方案领军企业，软硬件协同蓄 力长期成长 2024 年 11 月 19 日 增持（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------|------------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 905.68 | 1,551.61 | 2,119.98 | 3,045.38 | 4,579.75 | | 同比 (%) | 94.01 | 71.32 | 36.63 | 43.65 | 50.38 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (8,719.41) | (6,739.02) | 8,968.80 | (588.17) | 100.70 | | 同比 (%) | (323.01) | 22.71 | 233.09 ...

t 女 地平线 Horizon Robotics (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 股份代號 : 9660 全球發售 聯席保薦人、聯席保薦人兼整體協調人、聯席全球協調人、聯席賬簿管理人及聯席牽頭經辦人 Goldman 高盛 Morgan Stanley AD 中信建投國際 CHINASECURITIESINTERNATIONAL 廃 根 士 丹 利 整體協調人、聯席全球協調人、聯席賬簿管理人及聯席牽頭經辦人 1 中信证券 聯席全球協調人、聯席賬簿管理人及聯席牽頭經辦人 Deutsche Bank Z 德意志银行 公招银国际 S 中國 銀 河 國 際 聯席賬簿管理人及聯席牽頭經辦人 2 交易國際 聯席牽頭經辦人 建银国际 (一般交流有(日治) 《小) 國語國際 日富途證券 CD G H H B + K N 区DBS 時富金融 CFSG 员 利弗奥尔证券 重要提示 重要提示：閣下如對本招股章程的任何內容有任何疑問，應尋求獨立專業意見。 Horizon Robotics 地平綫* （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司） 全球發售 全球發售項下的發售股份數目 ： 1,355,106,600股 ...