地平线机器人（9660.HK）深度报告 国产智驾方案龙头 迈向高阶新征程 2025 年 06 月 04 日 分析师 崔琰 执业证书： S0100523110002 邮箱： cuiyan@mszq.com 分析师 完颜尚文 执业证书： S0100525050001 邮箱： wanyanshangwen@mszq.com ➢ 公司端：开放生态赋能 成为智驾"最大公约数"。公司作为智能驾驶领域领 先的芯片及解决方案供应商，构建了覆盖算法、专用处理架构（BPU）及开发工 具链的完整技术栈，并依托开放生态模式加速高阶智驾方案落地。公司已形成覆 盖 L2 到 L4 级智能驾驶芯片方案的完整布局，包括征程 2、征程 3、征程 5、征 程 6 等多个产品系列，合作车企超 40 家，覆盖 290 余款车型，2025 年征程家 族芯片出货量有望突破 1,000 万套。全资子公司地瓜机器人聚焦机器人核心计算 平台赛道，依托软硬件协同技术生态加速战略布局，截至 2025 年 1 月生态客户 已突破 200 家，正在成为公司全新增长引擎。公司定位"芯片+软件"系统级智 驾公司，2025 年推出国内首个软硬一体 L2 城区辅助驾驶系统 ...

地平线机器人（9660.HK）深度报告 国产智驾方案龙头 迈向高阶新征程 2025 年 06 月 04 日 ➢ 地平线：国产智驾方案龙头 历经十年蝶变。公司深耕全场景智能驾驶解决 方案，持续加速产品迭代，已经形成汽车解决方案为主、非车解决方案作为补充 的业务布局，核心业务汽车解决方案由"产品解决方案+授权服务业务"双轮驱 动。公司已建立起庞大优质客户群，覆盖全球头部主机厂和汽车 Tier1，截至 2024 年底，公司累计车型定点达 310 多款车型。2021-2024 年，公司营业收入从 4.7 亿元大幅增长至 23.8 亿元，CAGR 达 72.2%。 ➢ 行业端：智驾平权提速 龙头供应商迎来机遇期。行业增速层面，比亚迪、 吉利、奇瑞、长安、广汽等纷纷发布"智驾平权"战略，高阶智驾有望迎来加速 渗透拐点，智能驾驶正在从高端市场向主流价格区间渗透，2025 年有望成为智 驾平权元年；自研 vs 第三方层面，我们认为全栈自研资金、人才与技术门槛极 高，自研芯片的年需求量若低于 100 万片很难具备经济性。随着智驾平权加速， 行业即将快速收敛，具备强软硬一体能力的龙头第三方供应商能够对主机厂快速 赋能，正在迎来发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key updates that support a positive outlook for the company's long-term development: 1) The company will benefit from the upgrade of smart driving functions from L2 to L2+, leading to an acceleration in market share for J3/J5 [27][28]. 2) In the medium to long term, the company holds multiple pre-installed orders from various automakers for high-level smart driving, securing a position in the high-level smart driving market alongside Nvidia and Huawei [34][27]. 3) The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of "domestic production" and "stricter smart driving regulations" amid various market disturbances [25][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 37.11 billion, 57.21 billion, and 83.45 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.71%, 54.15%, and 45.87% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -11.09 billion, -6.58 billion, and 6.01 billion CNY, indicating a potential return to profitability by 2027 [3][47]. 2. Market Discrepancies - There are two main points of divergence in market perception regarding the company: 1) The competitive strength of the company's products compared to suppliers like Nvidia and Huawei, with the J6P chip aligning its capabilities with high-performance scenarios [2][39]. 2) The impact of automakers developing their own smart driving solutions on the company's market position, which the report argues will not pose a significant threat due to high development costs and regulatory challenges [3][45]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report employs a Price-to-Sales (PS) valuation method, assigning a target market value of 111.3 billion CNY (121.2 billion HKD) for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 9.18 HKD per share, based on a 30x PS multiple [11][50]. 4. Product and Market Strategy - The company is positioned as an open ecosystem player, allowing greater flexibility for automakers through its BPU IP licensing model, which enhances collaboration opportunities with Tier 1 customers [40][39]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships with major automakers, including BYD, Ideal, and Volkswagen, which are expected to drive significant growth in chip shipments and market share in the L2+ segment [30][34]. 6. Regulatory Environment - The tightening of regulations in the smart driving sector is seen as beneficial for established suppliers with proven production capabilities, positioning the company favorably in the evolving market landscape [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Views - The report highlights three key updated logic points that support the long-term development of the company: 1) The company will benefit in the short term from the upgrade of intelligent driving functions from L2 to L2+, leading to an accelerated market share increase for J3/J5 [27][28]. 2) In the medium to long term, the company holds multiple pre-installed orders from various automakers for high-level intelligent driving, securing a position in the high-level intelligent driving market alongside Nvidia and Huawei [27][34]. 3) The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of "domestic production" and "stricter intelligent driving regulations" amid various disturbances [25][37]. Summary by Sections Market Discrepancies - There are two main points of divergence in market perception regarding the company: 1) The competitive product strength of the company compared to suppliers like Nvidia and Huawei [38]. 2) The impact of automakers developing their own intelligent driving solutions on the company [38]. Competitive Product Strength - From a product matrix perspective, the mass production of J6P indicates that the company's chips can support all intelligent driving scenarios, aligning with the capabilities of Huawei and Nvidia [39]. - The company has established a fully self-developed product system that matches Nvidia's intelligent driving product ecosystem, offering more flexibility to users compared to Huawei's closed ecosystem [39][40]. Impact of Automakers' Self-Developed Solutions - The report argues that self-developed intelligent driving solutions by automakers will not threaten the company's market position or long-term development logic due to several factors, including increased regulatory scrutiny and the high costs associated with self-development [43][45]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.11 billion, CNY 57.21 billion, and CNY 83.45 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.71%, 54.15%, and 45.87% respectively [47][49]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2027, with a projected net profit of CNY 6.01 billion [47]. - A PS valuation method is used, assigning a target market value of CNY 111.3 billion (HKD 121.2 billion) and a target price of HKD 9.18 for 2025 [50][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) [4] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions, benefiting from the expansion of the smart driving solutions market driven by the trend of driving equality [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.644 billion, 5.618 billion, and 8.190 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.9%, 54.2%, and 45.8% [4][18] - The current stock price of 7.48 HKD corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 25, 16, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics is a market leader in providing ADAS and high-level autonomous driving solutions, focusing on autonomous driving chips and solutions [4][19] - The company has a stable and concentrated ownership structure, with founder Yu Kai holding 53.92% of the voting rights [21][24] - The company has successfully launched four generations of its Journey series chips, which cover a wide range of driving automation needs [28][29] Market Potential - The global market for smart driving solutions is expected to reach 1,017.2 billion CNY by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.2% from 2023 to 2030 [5][35] - Horizon Robotics holds a 35.9% market share in the Chinese OEM ADAS market as of the first half of 2024, ranking first [5][39] Competitive Advantage - The company is one of the few suppliers that can provide both chips and algorithms, enhancing its competitive edge [6][30] - Horizon Robotics has established a strong customer base and production experience, with its products already integrated into various models from leading automotive manufacturers [6][34] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 1.552 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.644 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.9% [8][18] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 75.1% in 2025 [8][65] - The company's automotive solutions accounted for 96.99% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its focus on the automotive sector [46][51]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) [4] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions, benefiting from the expansion of the smart driving solutions market driven by the trend of driving equality [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.644 billion, 5.618 billion, and 8.190 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.9%, 54.2%, and 45.8% [4][18] - The current stock price of 7.48 HKD corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 25, 16, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue (CNY million): 2023A: 1,552; 2024A: 2,384; 2025E: 3,644; 2026E: 5,618; 2027E: 8,190 [8] - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 2023A: 71.3; 2024A: 53.6; 2025E: 52.9; 2026E: 54.2; 2027E: 45.8 [8] - Net Profit (CNY million): 2023A: -6,739; 2024A: 2,347; 2025E: -1,634; 2026E: -945; 2027E: 75 [8] - Gross Margin (%): 2023A: 70.5; 2024A: 77.3; 2025E: 75.1; 2026E: 71.5; 2027E: 69.1 [8] - Net Margin (%): 2023A: -434.3; 2024A: 98.4; 2025E: -44.8; 2026E: -16.8; 2027E: 0.9 [8] - Return on Equity (ROE) (%): 2023A: -27.3; 2024A: 19.7; 2025E: -15.9; 2026E: -10.1; 2027E: 0.8 [8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): 2023A: -2.5; 2024A: 0.2; 2025E: -0.1; 2026E: -0.1; 2027E: 0.0 [8] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics holds a dominant position in the Chinese OEM advanced driver assistance solutions market with a market share of 35.9% as of H1 2024 [5][6] - The company is accelerating its growth in the high-level autonomous driving market and aims to increase its market share with the launch of the HSD solution in 2025 [5][6] - The global and Chinese smart driving solutions market is projected to reach 1,017.2 billion and 407 billion CNY by 2030, with a CAGR of 49.2% and 49.4% respectively from 2023 to 2030 [5][6] Product and Technology Overview - The company offers a comprehensive range of products including hardware, algorithms, and solutions, with a focus on soft-hard integration [4][28] - The latest series of chips, the Journey 6 series, provides significant computational power, with the J6P chip offering 560 TOPS [6][28] - Horizon Robotics has developed a full-stack algorithm capability that meets the development requirements for both advanced driver assistance and high-level autonomous driving solutions [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy-A" investment rating [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading domestic ADAS chip manufacturer, focusing on high-level intelligent driving solutions, with significant growth potential driven by the increasing demand for advanced driving assistance systems [1][2]. - The market for intelligent driving chips and algorithms in China is projected to exceed 60 billion RMB by 2030, with a notable shift towards higher-level autonomous driving features [2][39]. - The company has successfully established a strong customer base and competitive advantages through its strategic focus on local service and cost-effectiveness, enabling it to capture a leading market share in the domestic passenger vehicle intelligent driving chip sector [3][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved into a leading player in the domestic ADAS chip market since its establishment in 2015, focusing exclusively on intelligent driving since 2019 [1][13]. - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have shipped over 7 million units of its Journey series chips, achieving a market share of 33.97% in the domestic passenger vehicle intelligent driving chip market [1][13]. Market Potential - The penetration rate of L2 ADAS is nearing its ceiling, while the mid-to-high-level autonomous driving market presents new growth opportunities [2][39]. - The intelligent driving chip market in China is projected to reach approximately 20 billion RMB by 2025 and 50 billion RMB by 2030, with urban NOA chip market space estimated at 150 billion RMB in 2025 and 462 billion RMB in 2030 [2][39]. Competitive Landscape - The company is expected to become a leading third-party high-level intelligent driving solution provider, leveraging its strong strategic and algorithmic capabilities [3][39]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional manufacturers show varying levels of willingness to develop in-house solutions, creating opportunities for the company to expand its market presence [3][39]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 35.2 billion RMB in 2025, 54.8 billion RMB in 2026, and 80.2 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 47.6%, 55.8%, and 46.3% respectively [4][9]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 105.5 billion RMB based on a 30x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) is "Buy" [3]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leader in the new generation of automotive intelligent chips and a world-class AI algorithm company, focusing on software-defined principles and exploring new boundaries in intelligent driving [5][14]. - The market for intelligent driving is expected to grow significantly, with the AD (Autonomous Driving) market projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 144.2% from 2019 to 2023, and the overall AD+ADAS market expected to grow at a CAGR of 57.8% during the same period [5][12][37]. - Horizon Robotics has achieved a market share of 28.65% in the full-stage intelligent driving computing solutions market as of the first half of 2024, and is expected to further increase its share in the OEM ADAS and AD markets [5][57]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Horizon Robotics focuses on intelligent driving chip platforms, full-scene intelligent driving solutions, and supporting toolchains, establishing itself as a comprehensive supplier in the industry [5][14]. - The company has launched several intelligent driving chips, including J2, J3, J5, and J6, and has developed a self-adaptive BPU computing unit that maximizes computational efficiency [14]. Market Growth - The AD+ADAS market is projected to reach a scale of 407 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 48.8% from 2025 to 2030 [12][37]. - The domestic OEM market share has increased from 19.8% in 2019 to 39.8% in 2023, with expectations to exceed 60% by 2029 [61]. Competitive Position - Horizon Robotics has established a strong customer base, providing stable and reliable intelligent driving solutions to 27 OEMs, covering 42 brands [57][69]. - The company is recognized for its competitive advantages in cost-effectiveness, software capabilities, and customization, which have solidified its position in the industry [11][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Horizon Robotics are estimated at 36.10 billion yuan in 2025, 56.97 billion yuan in 2026, and 80.53 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 51%, 58%, and 41% respectively [6]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2027, with a forecasted profit of 668 million yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) with a current stock price of 7.5 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is focusing on high-end products and a broad customer base, recently launching the L2 urban driving assistance system, Horizon HSD, and announcing collaborations with multiple automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers [3][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the high barriers to entry in the smart driving chip sector, leveraging its extensive mass production experience and strong engineering capabilities [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from 1,552 million in 2023 to 10,004 million by 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate peaking at 82.7% in 2027 [4]. - **Net Profit**: The company is forecasted to have a net profit of -6,739 million in 2023, improving to 453 million by 2027 [4]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to decline from 70.5% in 2023 to 54.8% in 2027 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to improve from -0.51 in 2023 to 0.03 in 2027 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is advancing its urban driving assistance technology through a combination of hardware and software, with the HSD system set to begin mass production in Q3 2025 [5]. - Horizon Robotics has established partnerships with 20 automotive brands and is expanding its global market presence through collaborations with international Tier 1 suppliers like Bosch and Denso [6]. Financial Ratios - **Revenue Growth Rate**: Expected to be 53.6% in 2024 and 82.7% in 2027 [9]. - **Net Profit Margin**: Projected to improve from -434.3% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2027 [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to recover from -22.8% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics, highlighting its technological advantages and flexible open ecosystem strategy [3][7]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics aims to become a leading provider of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) and integrated driving solutions, leveraging proprietary software and hardware technologies [20]. - The company has undergone a strategic pivot to focus on the automotive sector, recognizing it as a significant application for robotics, which has led to substantial market share in China [24]. - Horizon Robotics has established a strong research and development team, with over 1,500 personnel dedicated to ADAS software and hardware, enhancing its competitive edge [26]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Horizon Robotics are as follows: - 2025: 36.61 billion RMB - 2026: 57.72 billion RMB - 2027: 88.10 billion RMB - Year-over-year growth rates are expected to be 54% for 2025, 58% for 2026, and 53% for 2027 [2][7]. - The company anticipates a shift towards profitability by 2027, with net profit expected to reach 813 million RMB [2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics holds over 40% market share in the Chinese OEM ADAS market and ranks second among independent third-party ADAS solution providers [24]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic chip manufacturing sector for automotive applications, similar to its role in the GPU field [7][49]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is set to launch the new "Journey 6" product line, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth in the automotive solutions segment [8]. - Horizon Robotics has developed a comprehensive stack of solutions that integrate algorithms, chips, and software, enhancing its ability to deliver optimized products [38]. Strategic Vision and Future Outlook - Horizon Robotics aims to establish an open ecosystem that supports the democratization of advanced driving technologies, positioning itself as a Tier 2 supplier [20][49]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for ADAS solutions, both domestically and internationally, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [50].