Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's introduction of the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase), equating it to a new form of quantitative easing (QE), which is expected to release liquidity and increase the long-term devaluation risk of fiat currencies, benefiting the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 in the short term [1] - He anticipates that once the market recognizes "RMP = QE," Bitcoin could return to $124,000 and potentially surge towards $200,000 [1] - A peak in market sentiment is expected around March next year, followed by a correction, but the overall bottom is likely to remain above $124,000 [1] Group 2 - Hayes is shifting his positions from Ethereum (ETH) to high-quality DeFi projects, believing that improved fiat liquidity will allow related DeFi assets to outperform the market [1]

I wrote an Op-Ed in the @washingtonpost calling attention to the negative impact of QE on the average American family.Read it here: https://t.co/CwWYC8luZJ https://t.co/A8XCc6E36J ...

Monetary Policy & Market Intervention - The market anticipates continued monetary easing, but under a different label than "QE" [1] - Policy adjustments are expected to protect the stock market, given its perceived importance to the US economy [2] Market Outlook - The stock market is closely tied to the US economy [2]

Fed Policy & Market Liquidity - The market should take the Fed's storyline with a grain of salt, as they tend to downplay the impact of their balance sheet on risk assets [7] - The Fed's QE, even when disguised as reserve management purchases (RMPs), adds liquidity to the system and monetizes debt, which is a positive signal for risk assets [5][6] - The market reacted positively to the FOMC meeting due to the Fed's balance sheet actions [7] - The industry anticipates a more dovish Fed in the future, which is generally bullish for risk assets [14] Economic Data & Growth - Economic data is noisy and subject to revisions, with 15 million job revisions in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Despite the noise, the trend shows good growth data, high productivity, and rising real wages, though not fast enough to concern the Fed [3] - The economy may be in a Goldilocks scenario, similar to the 1990s, which is positive for equity markets [12] - The US had two consecutive quarters of 4% growth without significant job creation, indicating a productivity story [11] Market Outlook & Risks - The market expects a test for the new Fed chair, similar to what happened with previous chairs [8][9] - Lower oil prices and potentially lower mortgage rates support a bullish outlook [13] - The credibility of the new Fed makeup and potential machinations within the committee could create bumps in the market [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Asia-Pacific stock market experienced significant declines, driven primarily by anticipated interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% during its upcoming meeting on December 18-19 [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On December 16, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 1%, with the Nikkei index dropping over 1.3% and the KOSPI index declining more than 1.7% [2][7]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling nearly 1.7% [2][7]. - In the A-share market, all major indices dropped over 1%, with more than 4,500 stocks declining [2][7]. Key Factors - The primary uncertainty in the market is linked to the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike, which would mark the first increase above 0.5% since 1995 [3][8]. - Analysts suggest that the anticipated rate hike may not significantly impact the market; however, there are indications that the Hong Kong market's weakness is related to the decline in yen carry trades [3][8]. Broader Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards a defensive stance, influenced by high valuations in major markets and a recent retreat from AI-driven trading [4][9]. - The Federal Reserve's plans for quantitative easing (QE) could further exacerbate market bubbles if U.S. stocks continue to rise [4][9].

Market Trends & Outlook - Bitcoin is moving sideways as markets head into holiday mode [1] - Major macro shifts could be brewing [1] - Discussion of the latest Fed rate cut and 2026 outlook [1] - Liquidity debates are ongoing in the crypto market [1] - Key "white swan" catalysts could wake crypto up [1] Promotional Offers & Community Engagement - Coin Bureau offers crypto deals and a club membership [1] - Opportunities to join the Coin Bureau Discord server [1] - Brand partners include Bitget (up to 50K USDT Deposit Bonus) and Toobit (100K USDT Bonus and 50% Lifetime Fee Discount) [1] - Tangem Wallet offers a 10% discount [1] Disclaimer - The information provided is for informational purposes only and not financial, legal, or tax advice [1] - Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss [1]

Market Trends - Gold and silver are surging due to renewed quantitative easing (QE) [1] - Bitcoin is underperforming and should be discontinued [1]

Macroeconomic Trends - The Fed is expanding its balance sheet, indicating a return to Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Alternative Investments - Discussion around Bitcoin potentially reaching $150,000 [1] Financial Products - Introduction of the Trump Gold Card [1]

Gold Market - Gold prices have recently broken out of a two-week consolidation range, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the metal [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to halt its balance sheet reduction and initiate a short-term Treasury purchase plan suggests a shift towards quantitative easing, which is expected to support precious metals in the long run [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold has formed a bullish daily candle, with potential for further gains, while support is noted at the $4265 level [2] Oil Market - Oil prices have reached new lows not seen since late November, reflecting a lack of bullish sentiment among traders [4] - There is a consensus in the market regarding oversupply in the international oil market, with warnings from trading giant Trafigura about a potential "super oversupply" situation due to weak demand and increasing supply [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its 2025 oil production forecast to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, indicating a record supply level and a projected oversupply of 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026 [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a strong upward movement, with a bullish daily candle indicating a shift in market control towards buyers [6] - There is a potential need for short-term adjustments, with support noted at the $5.34 level [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a series of small bearish and bullish candles, indicating a shift in price focus upwards [7] - The index appears to be in a consolidation phase, with a high probability of forming a bullish continuation pattern, and support is noted at the 50,330 level [7]

Mark, good morning to you. Let's have 3 minutes on the markets there and a lot of the negativity easy to attribute to Oracle. Nasdaq futures are down more than 80 minutes, for example, and that's a focused attack.But you think there's something more negative about the Fed that maybe that narrative ignores. Yeah, definitely. Oracle has been a driver of negativity today.Now, it was slightly delayed reaction in terms of Asia because after SoftBank also fell on the Oracle story that Asia got a little bit more n ...